人力资本投资结构及其对经济增长的影响——基于扩展MRW模型的内生增长理论与实证研究

本文针对已有的关于人力资本投资的理论研究往往只关注人力资本投资数量而忽视人力投资结构研究的现状,把教育和健康看作两种资本,分析了人力资本投资的具体构成形式。假设人力资本由教育资本和健康资本按照Cobb—Douglas生产技术形式组合生成。通过扩展Mankiw、Romer和Weil（1992）模型（简称MRW模型）,构建了一个新的内生经济增长模型。理论分析结果表明：人力资本投资结构制约着经济增长,人力资本积累和存量都对经济产生重要影响。最后文章以理论分析为基础构建计量经济模型,利用1978—2004年中国29个省、市、自治区的面板数据实证分析了人力资本的积累和存量以及教育资本和健康资本对中国经济增长的影响。实证结果表明较好地支持了本文的理论拓展分析。     

健康、教育和经济增长:理论及跨国证据

本文基于Soares(2005)的模型,导出婴儿死亡率和成年人预期寿命对人力资本积累以及最后对经济增长的影响效果,然后用跨国数据对模型的预测进行验证。本文模型的独特之处在于区分了成年人对小孩和对成年人自己的人力资本投资,揭示了成年人寿命增加对经济行为的影响的作用机制。在实证检验中,本文除了采用地理、气候等指标作为工具变量外,还独创性的利用因为实施大范围免疫计划的时间不同而产生的外生的免疫率的国别差异来解决健康的内生性问题。本文的结论对中国和发展中国家经济增长中健康的重要作用具有启发意义。     

教育公共投入与收入差距的波及效应

在对城乡教育公共投入差异的分析基础上,运用卢卡斯的新经济增长理论框架,采用面板数据常用的固定效应模型估计人力资本及其外溢效应对城乡收入差异的影响。实证研究发现,人力资本对城乡收入增长均有较强的促进作用,且农村人力资本的产出弹性明显高于城市。但与城市相比,农村人力资本的外溢效应偏低,这在一定程度上拉大了业已存在的城乡差距。     

Does Life Expectancy Affect Private Educational Investment in China？

In this paper, we emphasize the interactive effect between life expectancy and human capital accumulation, and test the positive feedback of longevity to educational investment in China. This is very important for understanding the pressure from the aging population and the increase in private educational investment in China. We first show in an extended human capital investment model that life expectancy growth acts as a driving force for educational investment. We then build a difference‐in‐difference‐in‐differences empirical framework and use cross‐province data to examine the effect in China. We use the maternal mortality rate (MMR) to identify the difference in life expectancy between genders, and the illiteracy rate or average years of education by gender for educational investment. The empirical results comply with the theory, in that increases in life expectancy significantly lower illiteracy rates and improve the average schooling years in China. This content of the present paper is closely related to crucial issues like population aging, human capital accumulation and gender discrimination. Policy implications are discussed based on the empirical results.     

Health investment,physical capital accumulation,and economic growth

This paper analyzes the effect of health investment, and hence of health capital, on physical capital accumulation and long-run economic growth in an extended Ramsey model with an Arrow–Romer production function and a Grossman (1972) utility function. The paper concludes that economic growth is related to both the health growth rate and the health level. While growth in health capital always facilitates economic growth, the gross effect of health level on the rate of economic growth depends on how it affects physical capital accumulation. If the negative effect of health on economic growth through its influence on physical capital accumulation is not taken into consideration, then health level has a positive effect on the rate of economic growth by improving the efficiency of labor production. However, since health investment may crowd out physical capital investment and thus influence physical capital accumulation, excessive investment in health may have a negative effect on economic growth. Empirical tests of these theoretical hypotheses using panel data from individual provinces of China produce results that are consistent with our theoretical conclusions.     

对外贸易和外商直接投资对中国人力资本存量影响的实证研究——基于岭回归分析法

文章首先建立模型,然后利用我国1983～2008年的时间序列数据,运用岭回归法实证研究了对外贸易和外商直接投资对人力资本存量的影响.结果发现,进口贸易显著地提升了我国人力资本;出口贸易对人力资本的正面影响系数很小;外商直接投资有利于人力资本的提升,但提升的幅度较小;国内生产总值和教育经费增加有助于提升人力资本.最后,文...     

产业集聚与人力资本投资效益——来自中国工业企业的微观证据

长期以来,关于我国本土企业是否存在内生经济增长特有的人力资本溢出效应,一直缺乏直接的微观经验证据。本文首次利用中国工业企业数据库的大样本数据,通过考察产业集聚与企业人力资本投资-绩效敏感性之间的关系,发现我国存在产业集聚带来的溢出效应,但这种效应只是显著存在于中小企业集群中：在中小企业集群地区,产业集聚程度上升将会提高企业人力资本投资的边际收益;而在非集群地区,产业集聚对企业人力资本投资的边际收益没有产生影响。进一步的实证检验表明,地区人力资本投资水平的提高会改善该地区没有人力资本投入的企业绩效;对于中小企业集群地区没有人力资本投入的企业,地区人力资本投资水平给其带来的边际绩效显著高于非集群地区的企业。     

公共艺术教育的微观经济效应：微观机理与实证分析

公共艺术教育是大学美育的主要途径和大学通识教育的重要组成部分,将通过公共艺术教育增强的通用性人力资本定义为创意人力资本,建立创意人力资本投资的理论模型,并通过面向在校大学生、已就业人员和企业高管的问卷调查数据分析,从不同角度检验公共艺术教育在提升就业能力、促进文化艺术消费需求、增进主观效用等方面的微观经济效应。模型显示公共艺术教育表现出与高等院校专业课程的捆绑效应、耦合效应、收益递增与路径依赖效应,以及兼具货币收益与非货币收益的双重收益效应。实证检验表明,公共艺术教育通过对个人认知能力、身心健康、审美品位和情感态度与社会行为的积极作用（亦即个人发展效应）,促使其就业能力和文艺消费需求的增长。     

教育、健康与农村居民收入差距

人力资本和收入差距关系一直是经济研究中的热点问题,作为人力资本的重要因素,教育和健康对我国农村居民收入差距的扩大起到了关键性的作用,而初始收入差距的存在必然会影响到居民对教育和健康的投资,从而产生人力资本差距,进而对收入差距产生重大影响。文章对相关的文献进行梳理和评述,并对其相互影响的机制进行了探讨和总结。     

西部地区人力资本投资自生机制探讨

文章首先从劳动力质量、人力资本存量以及人力资本投资的角度考察了西部地区的人力资本现状,得出了西部地区人口文化素质低、人力资本存量落后于中东部和全国水平以及教育和健康投资水平低的结论,进一步从现代经济增长理论、人力资本理论和产权理论的角度对西部地区的人力资本自生机制进行了探讨,认为有必要建立起西部地区人力资本的自生机制,提出了培育西部地区人力资本自生机制的具体政策建议。     

Education and productivity growth in a market economy

The purpose of this paper is to measure the impact of investment in education on U.S. economic growth. Education is treated as an investment in human capital, since benefits accrue to an educated individual over a lifetime of activities. One of the most important benefits is higher income from participation in the labor market. This is the key to understanding the link between investment in education and economic growth. The most important finding is that investment in human and nonhuman capital accounts for an overwhelming proportion of the growth of the U.S. economy during the postwar period. Educational investment will continue to predominate in the investment requirements for more rapid growth.Invited Address at the Thirty-Fourth Atlantic Economic Society Conference, October 15–18, 1992, Plymouth, Massachusetts.     

人力资本投资与农民收入增长

人力资本通过影响农民的信息获取、生产和资源配置等方面能力来影响农民收入增长,文章运用15个省市1993--2008年数据,实证分析了人力资本投资对农民收入增长的影响程度,结果表明人力资本对农民收入增长有显著的正影响,是影响农民收入增长的最关键因素。而根据资料统计分析,我国农民人力资本的存量和投资明显不足,严重制约了农民增收。究其原因,一方面是农民缺乏投资意识和投资能力有限,另一方面也与政府在农村人力资本投资不足有关。     

How to Model a Child in School? A Dynamic Macrosimulation Study for Tanzania

Universal primary education is regarded as one of the key pillars of sustainable development. The positive influence of education on growth is supported by many empirical studies. However, the effects of education on labour supply, poverty reduction and welfare as well as subsistence agriculture are hardly traceable in an econometric set‐up, given the complex interactions and the long‐term nature of education. An economy‐wide dynamic simulation model provides a well‐suited toolkit to analyse the effects of increased school provision in these aspects and provides insights into the intertemporal aspects of the schooling decision of children. We develop a macroeconomic model that explicitly includes education and human capital allocation, and takes into account that the possibility of child labour increases the opportunity costs of human capital formation. In an application for Tanzania, we find that a large‐scale investment programme in education might have a negative effect on both gross domestic product (GDP) growth and high‐skilled labour supply in the short term but leads to higher GDP and welfare as well as significantly reduced child labour supply in the medium to long term.     

Income Inequality,Taxation, and Growth

Much recent theoretical and empirical research has focused on the relationship between income distribution and economic growth. The fiscal policy approach argues that inequality is linked to pressure for redistributionary taxation, leading to low capital investment and, therefore, growth. Empirical analyses are consonant with this view in that the long-run relationship between inequality and growth is negative. However, several empirical inconsistencies with the fiscal policy approach do emerge: (a) there exists a short-run, positive relationship between income inequality and growth and (b) the relationship between inequality and taxation is mixed, at best. This paper presents a simple theoretical model that reconciles the intuitively appealing fiscal policy approach with the empirical findings.     

长三角外商直接投资对工业经济增长影响的实证分析

文章利用长三角地区2004年经济普查中类行业的截面数据,采用普通最小二乘法（OLS）和分位数回归法（Quantile Regress）研究了该地区外商直接投资对于工业经济增长的影响,在控制人力资本和市场竞争度之后,实证结果表明外商直接投资对于长三角地区的工业经济增长显著正相关,即FDI总的溢出效应为正,同时更富有竞争力的市场也有利于工业总产值的提高。通过长三角地区内部的比较分析得出,上海利用FDI的溢出效应为负,江苏利用FDI的溢出效应为正且不显著,浙江的FDI则具有显著正的溢出效应。     

Human resource development and growth: improving access to and equity in the provision of education and health services in South Africa

This paper demonstrates the importance of improving access to and equity in the provision of essential services such as education and health for enhancing human development. A major constraint to accelerating and sustaining economic growth in South Africa is the shortage of skilled human resources. Human capital formation (through appropriate education, training and health) is vital for growth. However, for sustained growth to reduce poverty and unemployment, human capital of a ‘higher order’ than the system is currently producing, in both quantitative and qualitative terms, must be generated. The paper reviews progress in the education and health sectors and identifies the challenges. It stresses the need for policy makers to recognise the link between education and health outcomes and the provision of clean water, adequate sanitation, cheap and accessible transport and effective nutrition programmes. Addressing only the education and health services is unlikely to lead to optimal outcomes in these sectors.     

资本账户开放的门槛效应及路径研究

文章基于70个国家面板数据,实证检验了开放资本账户的增长效应。研究结果表明,资本账户开放具有国别差异,高收入国家开放资本账户的增长效应显著大于中低收入国家。在引入制度质量、货币政策、财政政策、对外开放度和金融发展5个初始条件指标建立动态门槛模型,研究发现,资本账户开放对经济增长的影响是非线性的,初始条件较低时资本账户开放不利于经济增长,当初始条件越过门槛值后,资本账户开放表现出积极的增长效应。结合跨境资本异质性和门槛效应,进一步发现开放直接投资的门槛最低,经济效应最大;开放债务投资的门槛最高,经济效应最小;开放股权投资的门槛效应介于前二者之间。经验分析为中国资本账户开放条件以及路径提供了参考。     

Technology spillovers,absorptive capacity and economic growth

By establishing an endogenous growth model with knowledge-driven R&D, this paper aims to investigate the relationship between international technology spillovers, the host country's absorptive capability and endogenous economic growth. The solution to the competitive equilibrium problem shows that long-run growth arises from improvements in absorptive capability and higher human capital stocks, while the relationships between openness, the technology gap and the steady-state growth rate are uncertain. Econometric estimates of China's economic growth are obtained using province level data covering the period 1996–2002. The estimates indicate that technology spillovers depend on the host country's human capital investment and degree of openness, and that FDI is a more significant spillover channel than imports.     

Human capital,FTAs and foreign direct investment flows into ASEAN

In this paper, we examine the impact of foreign direct investment flows into ASEAN in a gravity model using the bilateral FDI data from 2000 to 2009. In particular, we study the key factors that determine the FDI flows into the region including human capital development and whether membership of a bilateral or regional trade agreement has a differential impact on FDI flows using an extended gravity model. The empirical results indicate that free trade agreements do have positive impact on FDI inflows. However, the returns on FDI inflows depend on the domestic absorptive capacity of the economy and region. It is imperative for ASEAN to align its infrastructure, human capital and technologies to provide MNCs with the necessary linkages to the global network and also to move the domestic industries seamlessly up the global production value-chain. The paper highlights that this is crucial for deeper ASEAN integration and for sustainable growth in the region.     

人力资本、行业异质性与中国工业的生产率 ——基于人力资本分工的研究视角

人力资本是推动经济增长和生产率提升的重要源泉。按照人力资本在经济增长和产业创 新过程中发挥的功能及其对应的社会分工角色的不同,本文在工业分行业层面上将人力资本大致 划分为一般人力资本、专业人力资本、企业家人力资本,并将三类人力资本全部纳入生产率决定 方程,使用中国工业2000-2014 年间35 个细分行业的面板数据来考察三类人力资本对中国工业生 产率的影响。为了克服考察期间工业统计口径变化导致的估计偏差,本文按照相关指标将变量统 一调整到全部工业口径。实证检验发现：①专业人力资本、企业家人力资本、一般人力资本均能 够显著提高中国工业的生产率,并且效果依次增强;②进一步引入三类人力资本与行业异质性变 量的交互项后发现,三类人力资本对中国工业生产率的影响具有显著的行业异质传导效应,在国 有产权比重较大、企业规模较大、技术密集度较高的细分行业中,专业人力资本、一般人力资本、 企业家人力资本均对中国工业生产率的提升作用更大。