东亚经济周期同步性研究

本文首先通过B-B算法,考察东亚各国(地区)的经济周期。然后运用动态因子模型,提取东亚共同经济周期,并通过比较东亚各国(地区)和共同经济周期的关系,直观地判断同步性问题。最后通过B-B算法计算出来各国(地区)经济周期的数据,使用一致指数方法定量地衡量东亚各国(地区)经济周期间的同步性问题。     

Stabilization of effective exchange rates under common currency basket systems

We investigate the extent to which a common currency basket peg would stabilize effective exchange rates of East Asian currencies. We use an AMU (Asian Monetary Unit), which is a weighted average of ASEAN10 plus 3 (Japan, China, and Korea) currencies, as a common currency basket to investigate the stabilization effects. We compare our results with another result on stabilization effects of the common G3 currency (the US dollar, the Japanese yen, and the euro) basket in the East Asian countries [Williamson, J., 2005, A currency basket for East Asia, not just China. In: Policy Briefs in International Economics, No. PB05-1. Institute for International Economics]. We obtained the following results: first, the AMU peg system would be more effective in reducing fluctuations of the effective exchange rates of East Asian currencies as a number of countries applied the AMU peg system increases in East Asia. Second, the AMU peg system would more effectively stabilize the effective exchange rates than a common G3 currency basket peg system for four (Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea, and Thailand) of the seven countries. The results suggest that the AMU peg system would be useful for the East Asian countries whose trade weights on Japan are relatively higher than others. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 590–611.     

论东亚区域合作中的美国因素和主导权问题

东亚区域合作是我国所在的亚太和东亚地区的两大机制(以APEC为代表的亚太合作机制和以东盟+3、东亚峰会为代表的东亚合作机制)之一。重视东亚区域合作是我国大周边战略的关键,但是,相对于亚太合作或亚太合作机制,东亚合作机制的建设难度更大,东亚一体化的目标更加遥不可及,主要难题是如何处理美国因素和解决主导权问题。     

Toward regional financial and monetary cooperation in East Asia1

The financial and economic crisis in 1997–98 came as a dramatic shock to East Asian economies, and has prompted to institutionalize a regional financial and monetary cooperation. This paper demonstrates the strong will of East Asian countries to develop the regional financial and monetary cooperation, outlines recent developments, and provides possible prospects for the future. It points out that the option to keep consistent with the IMF system actually weakens regional solidarity, and recommends an immediate establishment of a strong regional surveillance and peer pressure mechanism for the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) to evolve into a common pool of foreign exchange reserves, a sort of East Asian IMF. It also argues that East Asian countries should closely coordinate their exchange rate regime to maintain intra‐regional and extra‐regional exchange rate stability.     

Regional production networks,service offshoring,and productivity in East Asia

Using the Asian International Input–Output Table (1990, 1995, and 2000), this paper explores regional production networks and offshoring of material and service inputs in East Asia. In doing so, offshoring is measured directly from the Table, which has not been used in previous literature regarding this issue. It turns out that East Asian countries source significant shares of inputs within East Asia. In addition to material offshoring, service offshoring in East Asia has become increasingly common in the era of globalization. We also evaluate the effects of this fast growing offshoring on productivity. Our econometric results demonstrate that offshoring exerts a significant and positive impact on total factor productivity in East Asia. Service offshoring, in particular, performs a more significant role than material offshoring.     

Income Distribution in East Asian Developing Countries: an update

This paper portrays recent trends in income distribution in eight countries of the developing East and Southeast Asian region. The available data indicate that the distribution of income in the more developed Asian NIEs, Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan, has tended to become more unequal in recent years. The ASEAN-4 countries offer an interesting contrast. With the exception of Thailand, the distributions of income in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines have shown a trend towards greater equality. The experiences of the East Asian developing countries have demonstrated that sustained GDP growth with full employment could be a most favourable factor explaining the reduction of inequality.     

东亚金融一体化的动态及其收益

近年来，东亚一系列区域金融合作引起了学术界对地区金融一体化现状和收益的极大兴趣。文章基于价格和数量的测度考察了东亚地区金融一体化的程度：抛补利差和股权溢价的β收敛结果表明，危机之前东亚金融市场的全球和区域一体化并行，但在近几年，区域一体化趋势更强劲，超过了全球一体化；金融引力模型的结果表明，东亚主要的跨境金融投资者的区域内金融资产持有量比金融引力模型预测的水平更大。此外，面板回归确定了较高的金融一体化作为更广泛的金融发展的关键组成部分，会显著降低东亚国家对发达国家的经常账户失衡，因此，区域层面的金融一体化可以作为加强东亚国家的增长来源和提高经济弹性的重要政策路径。     

关于东亚区域货币合作问题的分析

1997年的亚洲金融危机给东亚各国的经济带来了沉重打击。此后,东亚各国纷纷认识到开展区域内货币金融合作的必要性,并以此来增强抵御风险、化解危机的能力。这次亚洲金融危机改变了东亚国家的政策取向,区域经济一体化步入制度性安排的快车道,这也为东亚区域货币合作创造了条件。另外,美元区与欧元区的相继建立和运行不仅证实了最优货币区理论在实践上的可行性,也增强了东亚各国在货币合作问题上取得成功的信心。本文将要对东亚区域货币合作问题做以探讨分析,从而说明东亚区域货币合作的必要性和可行性。     

Exchange rates,global imbalances,and interdependence in East Asia

The paper analyzes East Asian interdependence in the face of global imbalances. A macro-econometric multinational model is used, describing Korea, Japan, China and the rest of East Asia in their respective relations with the United States as well as with the rest of the world. US imbalances and their expected consequences, notably a depreciation of the dollar and the slowdown of US demand, have rather contrasted effects on East Asian economies, depending on relative magnitudes of the two components. Korea is more affected by the dollar depreciation while China is more exposed to the US slowdown. Japan, less open and less dependent on the US market, is less touched. The correction of East Asian exchange-rate misalignments, which have prevailed since the beginning of the 2000s, would badly affect East Asian economies if undertaken too abruptly. Lastly, the perspective of creating an area of stabilised exchange rates between won, yen and other currencies, organized either as a common currencies basket system or in a regime based on the ACU, is explored preliminarily. Sets of simulations comparing adjustment mechanisms between East Asian countries, with or without the possibility of monetary adjustment, illustrate the cost of precluding exchange-rate adjustments in the case of asymmetric demand shocks.     

External adjustments and coordinated exchange rate policy in Asia

In this paper, we estimate structural VAR models with contemporaneous restrictions based on neo-classical and Keynesian theories to investigate whether the cause of current account surpluses for East Asian economies is a “saving glut” or undervalued currencies. Analytical results show that the major determinant of the current account is the real effective exchange rate for all East Asian countries with the exception of China for which the major determinant is domestic GDP. Accordingly, the recently requested revaluation of the Chinese yuan may not be an effective policy for reducing the Chinese current account surplus, and may affect other Asian current accounts. We also investigate whether a Chinese currency revaluation would contribute to the improvement of current account imbalances in East Asia and find that a revaluation would, indeed, improve the current accounts of Japan, Korea, Indonesia, and Thailand. Since the trade structures of major East Asian countries are substitutes with that of China, a Chinese currency revaluation might not lead to a decrease in East Asian current account surpluses. Coordination of currency policy among East Asian countries is, therefore, needed to solve the global current account imbalance.     

East Asian Export Competitiveness: New Measures and Policy Implications

This paper demonstrates the remarkable competitiveness of East Asian countries in world export markets for manufactures and develops some policy implications, both for developed and other developing economies. Using constant market share analysis, applied to data for exports from three East Asian countries–Korea, China and Indonesia–to markets in the industrially advanced economies (IAEs), it shows that East Asian countries have increased their share, not merely in IAE imports, but in total IAE market sales at the expense of exporters from other countries and of domestic IAE producers.     

全球金融危机下对深化东亚金融合作的新思考

从东亚金融合作的历程看,东亚金融合作是在东亚金融危机中诞生,又在应对全球金融危机中不断发展的。尽管东亚金融合作已经在一些领域取得了不少实质性的进展,但此次金融危机对金融全球化下东亚各国如何进一步推进区域金融合作提出了迫切要求。本文在分析东亚金融合作现状的基础上,着重对如何推动亚洲债券市场发展提出了具体建议。     

东亚区域合作的经济需求与发展策略

东亚区域经济合作与现实经济需求是与各方的承受能力联系在一起的。考虑到利益需求的差异,以及经济发展水平的不同,要推动合作,就需要寻找共同利益,谋求共赢互利发展。为此,东亚区域经济合作应该是以共同利益为基础、渐进式、多层次、全方位的合作。     

中日在东亚货币领域的博弈与竞争

随着中国的快速崛起,中日之间逐渐形成"强—强"并列的格局,这一格局对双方在东亚货币领域的合作产生重要影响。中日双方都有意争夺区域货币主导权,彼此的博弈与竞争引人注目;同时,中日双方都有着各自的缺陷并面临一些共同的困难。避免恶性竞争和"零和博弈",实现"合作中的竞争"是中日双方的最佳选择。中日双方应将中日东亚货币合作化成中日合作的纽带和推动中日关系良性发展的平台,化解双方的不信任,并推动东亚区域合作的进程。     

东亚区域金融合作的选择探析

自从亚洲金融危机以后,东亚各国纷纷认识到开展区域金融合作的必要性,以增强抵御风险,化解危机的能力。而美元区和欧元区的相继建立既验证了最优货币区理论在实践上的可能性,也增强了东亚各国成功合作的信心。文章从合作的背景和动因,实际进展情况和最终目标,以及面临的困难这三个方面分析讨论了东亚区域金融合作的可行性,并进一步探讨了新加坡在合作中可扮演的角色。     

关于“东亚共同体”构想的几点思考

因东亚地区区情复杂,加上构建东亚共同体也是一个复杂的艰巨工程,有关各方在参与范围、对象等问题上存有分歧,为此东亚共同体建设只能是区域合作的长远目标。从发展趋势看,10+3应该成为共同体的基础,中日韩应该在其中发挥重要作用,加强与区域外国家尤其是美国的政策协调也至关重要。     

Openness and growth in East Asia after the Asian crisis

Openness with respect to trade in goods, services and foreign direct investment has a positive marginal effect on growth. The fast-growing East Asian economies were early openers, and this contributed to their fast growth. However, East Asian countries are not relatively open today. This factor, together with the convergence effect of fast growth in the past, imply that their economies will slow down. Their growth prospects are further reduced by growing geographic discrimination against their goods and services in world markets, and the slow down of the Japanese economy.     

Financial crisis and saving–investment dynamics in the presence of cross-sectional dependence: The case of East Asia

Using the common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) technique to a set of balanced panel error correction model, we examine the effects of the Asian financial crisis of 1997, and the global financial crisis of 2008 on the behavior of saving and investment in East Asian countries. Our results show that saving and investment rates are highly dependent across countries of East Asia. This finding underlines the importance of taking into account cross-sectional dependence when analyzing saving–investment relationship. The results also indicate that the adverse financial shock of 1997 has negatively affected the short run correlation between saving and investment, but has not influenced their long run relationship. Our finding, hence, verifies the prediction of new open economy macroeconomic theories regarding the divergence of short run saving–investment from its long run trend for East Asia. Moreover, we find that the global financial crisis of 2008 has not affected the saving–investment dynamics in this region. It means that the consequences of the Asian and global financial crises for saving–investment dynamics are not the same in East Asia. One might attribute these differences to the origins of these two shocks, i.e., internal versus external to the region. These findings may have some policy implications for those countries that rely heavily on foreign investment and are subject to various internal and external financial shocks.     

IS EAST ASIA FIT FOR AN OPTIMUM CURRENCY AREA? AN ASSESSMENT OF THE ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY OF A HIGHER DEGREE OF MONETARY COOPERATION IN EAST ASIA

This paper attempts to make a contribution to the recent search for a suitable assessment of the economic feasibility of a higher degree of monetary cooperation in East Asia. By using a structural vector autoregression approach as well as a generalized purchasing power parity approach, we find that a larger group of appropriately selected East Asian economies does satisfy the macroeconomic conditions for forming an Optimum Currency Area (OCA). The East Asian group consists of four ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand) and four Northeast Asian economies (Hong Kong SAR, Japan, Republic of Korea, and Taiwan). This finding presents a striking contrast to the existing research results whose policy recommendation has generally been that countries in East Asia should start with a smaller subgroup currency area. It is time that many East Asian economies as a region made a serious effort to pursue a higher degree of monetary cooperation among themselves for forming an OCA.     

Business Cycles Synchronisation and Symmetries in the Transition to East African Monetary Union

Our paper explores the prospects for the proposed East African Monetary Union (EAMU) by employing rigorous empirical tools to analyse business cycles synchronisation, structural cross-correlations, spectral decomposition and regional clusters to identify different cyclical episodes, periodicities and characterise the economic cycles of East African countries. We find that cyclical movements reflect various idiosyncratic, common, historical and external shocks in the region. Secondly, all countries appear to be structurally correlated with each other except for South Sudan and Burundi. Our results also observe that the contemporaneous co-movements of East African Community (EAC) cycles with those of Kenya and Tanzaniaare procyclical with coincidental path shift, while the same EAC cycles appear to be acyclical with those of Burundi. Additionally, from the spectral decomposition, Kenyan cycles take 10 years to complete, while those of Tanzania and Rwanda take 8 years. Ugandan and Burundian cycles take approximately 5 years, while the cyclical frequency for South Sudan corresponds to 3.3 years. Finally, the cluster characterisation of countries reveals that South Sudan, Burundi and Rwanda form a group, while Kenya and Tanzania from a group distinct from the rest. We urge the member countries to prioritise policies on regional risk-sharing and adjustment mechanisms, in addition to establishing credible institutional infrastructure that ensures surveillance and enforcement of convergence conditions adopted in EAMU protocol.