证券分析师预测偏差研究述评

证券分析师的预测是否可以准确地代表市场预期,进而提高市场效率,一直以来都是投资者关注的重点和学术界讨论的热点。现有研究发现,动机驱动和认知偏差等多方面因素可能导致证券分析师的有偏预测。本文从证券分析师预测偏差内涵及其测度差异的界定,导致偏差的动因以及预测偏差对信息有效性的影响等方面对预测偏差的研究脉络和研究进展进行梳理和评述,同时提出了未来的研究方向。     

Understanding analysts forecasts

The purpose of this paper is to model analysts’ forecasts. The paper differs from the previous research in that we do not focus on how accurate these predictions may be. Accuracy may indeed be an important quality but we argue instead that another equally important aspect of the analysts’ job is to predict and describe the impact of jump events. In effect, the analysts’ role is one of scenario prediction. Using a Bayesian-inspired generalised method of moments estimation procedure, we use this notion of scenario prediction combined with the structure of the Morgan Stanley analysts’ forecasting database to model normal (base), optimistic (bull) and pessimistic (bear) forecast scenarios for a set of reports from Asia (excluding Japan) for 2007–2008. Since the estimation procedure is unique to this paper, a rigorous derivation of the asymptotic properties of the resulting estimator is also provided.     

Pricing interest-rate-derivative securities

This article shows that the one-state-variable interest-ratemodels of Vasicek (1977) and Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985b)can be extended so that they are consistent with both the currentterm structure of interest rates and either the current volatilitiesof all spot interest rates or the current volatilities of allforward interest rates. The extended Vasicek model is shownto be very tractable analytically. The article compares optionprices obtained using the extended Vasicek model with thoseobtained using a number of other models.     

The effects of MiFID II on sell-side analysts,buy-side analysts,and firms

Review of Accounting Studies - This paper provides early but broad empirical evidence on MiFID II, which requires investment firms to unbundle investment research from other costs they charge to...     

Capitalized intangibles and financial analysts

We examine whether firms that capitalize a higher proportion of their underlying intangible assets have higher analyst following, lower dispersion of analysts’ earnings forecasts and more accurate earnings forecasts relative to firms that capitalize a lower proportion. Under Australian generally accepted accounting principles, capitalization of intangible assets has become increasingly ‘routine’ since the late 1980s. It is predicted that this experience leads Australian analysts to expect firms with relatively more certain intangible investments to signal this fact by capitalizing intangible assets. Our results are consistent with this. We find that capitalization of intangible assets is associated with higher analyst following and lower absolute earnings forecast error for firms with a stock of underlying intangible assets. Our tests suggest a weaker association between capitalization and lower earnings forecast dispersion. We conclude that there are benefits for analysts, for management to have the option to capitalize intangible assets. These findings suggest that IAS 38 Intangible Assets and AASB 138 Intangible Assets reduce the usefulness of financial statements.     

Financial analysts and price discovery

We show that whether or not a bank/brokerage firm has top‐rated financial analysts and high Wall Street Search rankings for their research is significantly related to that firm's contribution to price discovery, the process by which information is incorporated into stock prices. Our study relates cross‐sectional characteristics of the quality of brokerage research, the asymmetric information environment, and order flow volume to a microstructure measure of price discovery developed by Granger and Gonzalo. We measure analysts’ research quality with an industry‐specific ranking by institutional investors, with an opinion survey of trading desk personnel, and with the number of top 3 analysts across all industries employed by the bank/brokerage firm.     

发行通货膨胀指数化债券探讨

按一只债券在整个生命期内其未来现金流(包括本金和利息)是否固定,分为固定利率债券和浮动利率债券.其中浮动利率债券的未来现金流=利差 参考指数.当参考指数是与通货膨胀相关的指数时,这类债券就可以称为通胀指数债券(IIS).     

申银万国:信息化建设助力证券投资研究

上海申银万国证券研究所有限公司（以下简称“申银万国研究所”）成立于1992年，是国内证券经营机构中成立最早、具有独立法人资格并经中国证监会批准的具有证券咨询从业资格的综合性证券研究咨询机构，为中国证券业协会副会长单位。历经十几年的发展，申银万国研究所已发展成注册资本金2000万元、拥有百余人专业研究队伍的证券研究咨询机构。     

对发展我国网上证券业务的思考

一、网上证券业务发展概况网上证券业务是指投资者利用互联网资源,获取国内外各交易所即时报价,查找各类经济金融信息,分析市场行情,并通过互联网委托下单,进行实时交易。证券业的设备先进性、业务实时性、客户分散性等特点促进了网上证券业务的产生和发展。网上证券业务具有低     

Performance based mortgage-backed securities indexing

The traditional approaches to indexing first developed for equities and then adapted to bonds are not effective for mortgage-backed securities. This paper details a new technique for indexing portfolios of mortgage-backed securities which rectifies the deficiencies of the older cellular method. By focusing on the performance characteristics of the bonds adjusted for their embedded options, we at once simplify the process of portfolio selection and increase the accuracy of performance tracking.     

Convertible securities in merger transactions

This paper provides a rationale for the use of convertible securities as the medium of exchange in corporate change-of-control transactions. We argue that convertible securities can resolve the information asymmetry about the bidder’s value while at the same time mitigating the information asymmetry about the target’s value. In contrast, deals with cash or stock can only address one information asymmetry or the other but not both. Empirically, we find that a bidder is more likely to offer convertible securities, rather than all cash or all stock, when both the bidder and its target face large asymmetric information problems. We also find that both bidders and targets in convertible deals enjoy positive abnormal stock returns around takeover announcements. These findings provide empirical support for the use of convertible securities to resolve the double-sided asymmetric information problem. Finally, we find that bidder returns in convertible deals are larger than in all-cash and all-stock deals, but that target returns in convertible deals are smaller than in all-cash and all-stock deals.     

Liquidity, analysts, and institutional ownership

In this paper, we investigate the empirical relationship between institutional ownership, number of analysts following and stock market liquidity. We find that firms with larger number of financial analysts following have wider spreads, lower market quality index, and larger price impact of trades. However, we find that firms with higher institutional ownership have narrower spreads, higher market quality index, and smaller price impact of trades. In addition, we show that changes in our liquidity measures are significantly related to changes in institutional ownership over time. These results suggest that firms may alleviate information asymmetry and improve stock market liquidity by increasing institutional ownership. Our results are remarkably robust to different measures of liquidity and measures of information asymmetry.     

Voluntary disclosures and information production by analysts

We analyze the voluntary disclosure decision of a manager when analysts scrutinize the quality of disclosure. We derive an equilibrium in which managers voluntarily disclose unfavorable information only if sufficiently precise, but disclose favorable news with lower levels of accuracy. We show that analysts cover good news disclosures with higher scrutiny. To the extent analysts rely on mandatory financial reports to interpret voluntary disclosures, we show that more precise financial reports may lead to more precise but less frequent voluntary disclosures. Moreover, a slant toward conservatism in financial reports can lead to less precise yet more frequent voluntary disclosures.     

关于证券集中交易的思考

集中交易正在成为证券业信息化最热门的话题之一.2002年,笔者参与了兴业证券股份有限公司集中交易系统项目的立项、调研和招标工作,在这个过程中,对集中交易有了一些认识和想法,在此提出来与大家进行讨论.     

Reg-FD and the competitiveness of all-star analysts

We examine the impact of Regulation Fair Disclosure on the competitive advantage of All-Star analysts as measured by turnover in the rankings. Institutional Investor All-Americans, chosen by votes of institutional investors based on overall helpfulness, experienced a significant increase in turnover as Reg-FD was implemented. Non-US analysts and US analysts ranked solely on the basis of public stock recommendations did not. Within a few years, however, All-American turnover returned to pre-Reg-FD levels, suggesting that the new All-Americans built a competitive advantage stressing aspects of performance less dependent on privileged communication.     

Information bundling and securities litigation

We exploit the exogenous shock of a 2005?U.S. Supreme Court decision on securities class action loss causation requirements to examine two ways that firms bundle information with restatements: “positive bundling” of good news and “noise bundling” of additional bad news. We find that positive bundling offsets price declines and results in less litigation. In contrast, noise bundling magnifies price declines, but nevertheless deters litigation by confounding which bad news caused a decline. Non-bundled restatements are 5.94 times more likely to result in litigation. Bundled restatements have 8.17 times higher dismissal rates and $21.17 to $23.45 million lower settlement amounts.     

为通往资本市场造桥--中国建设银行证券业务系统建设侧记

商业银行其实是中国证券市场的最早参与者,中国股市就是在最早脱胎于银行的券商的推动下发展起来的。而早期混业经营的状况很快就显现出我国金融机构运行机制不规范、金融监管手段不完善等矛盾。为了更有效地控制金融风险,1995年5月,我国通过《中华人民共和国商业银行法》,明确决定了金融业的分业经营、分业管理模式。而目前世界发达国家金融业均为混业经营体制。就在我国以法律形式明确分业经营的4年后,美国在1999年11月通过了《金融服务现代化方案》法案,正式废止了分业经营体制,极大地解放了美国银行业,造就了一批竞争力很强的全能型银行…