Bank market power, economic growth and financial stability: Evidence from Asian banks

This paper examines whether Asian banks are still prone to moral hazard in the aftermath of the 1997 Asian crisis. Using a sample of commercial banks from 12 Asian countries during the 2001–2007 period, our empirical findings highlight that greater market power in the banking market results in higher instability. Although banks are better capitalized in less competitive markets their default risk remains higher. A deeper investigation however shows that such behaviour is dependent on the economic environment. Higher economic growth contributes to neutralize greater risk taking and higher instability in less competitive markets.     

Foreign capital flows and economic growth in East Asian countries

This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the effect of various types of capital flow on the growth process of the East Asian countries, including China. The empirical analysis was based on dynamic panel data and we found; first, that domestic savings contribute positively to long-term economic growth. Second, we confirmed that FDI is growth enhancing and that its impact is felt both in the short and long run. Additionally, FDI influence on growth is much higher than domestic savings. Third, short-term capital inflow has adverse effect on the long-term as well as short-term growth prospects and it appears to be sensitive to long-term capital inflows. Fourth, long-term debt has positive effect on growth but its effect does somewhat disappear in the long-term. By and large, the observed positive contribution of FDI in the growth process of East Asian economies is a robust finding. From policy perspective, the evidence convincingly suggests that countries that are successful in attracting FDI can finance more investments and grow faster than those that deter FDI.     

Efficiency change and productivity growth in agriculture: A comparative analysis for selected East Asian economies

This study focuses on identifying the sources of agricultural growth for eight East Asian economies – with special emphasis on factors that can better explain different components of growth. The Malmquist productivity growth index and its two components are calculated and regressed on variables including the human capital endowment, domestic R&D, international spillovers, and country-specific farming characteristics to characterize the differential patterns of growth. Our empirical evidence suggests that domestic R&D and its interaction with human capital constitute the major determinant of individual economy's progress in agricultural technology, whereas the human capital endowment is crucial for the catching up effect. Furthermore, for foreign knowledge to contribute to productivity growth either through innovation or through catching up, the host economy has to develop a sufficient learning capacity from education. Countries that do not attempt to develop the learning capability to assimilate and exploit the freely available knowledge may not benefit from international spillovers of agricultural R&D.     

Regionalism and East Asian economic integration

The wave of economic globalization moves to all the countries in the world to be integrated with multilateralism and by promotion of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade/World Trade Organization （GATT/WTO）. Meanwhile, the growth of regional economic integration has been one of the major developments in international economic relations, and undoubtedly regionalism is a part of the global economic environment. The objective of the paper is to review the trends and highlight the prospects for enhancing economic integration in East Asia. This paper has argued that the emerging East Asian economies have achieved sustained economic development and poverty reduction through domestic structural, institutional and governance reforms as well as through market-driven integration with the global and regional markets. Though this process was temporarily interrupted by the Asian financial crisis in 1997-1998, the economies have pursued further liberalization and reforms, deepened economic integration through trade, FDI and finance, and regained dynamic growth. The author argues that the reasonable choice for Eastern Asian countries is to deepen their economic integration and the optimal strategy is fostering economic integration with institutional cooperation.     

East Asian economic development: Two demographic dividends

Countries throughout the world are experiencing changes in their population age structure, but they are particularly rapid in East Asia. During the last part of the 20th Century the region benefited from an increased concentration of population in the working ages. Population aging is now the increasing rapidly with potentially adverse economic effects. The evidence presented here shows that population aging can lead to a second demographic dividend because population aging may lead to rapid capital accumulation. This appears to have occurred in East Asia because public support systems for the elderly are smaller and because family support systems are in decline.     

Financial development and economic growth: Evidence from China

This paper investigates the relationship between financial development and economic growth for the case of China over the period 1952–2001. After considering the time series characteristics of the dataset, a multivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) framework is used as an appropriate specification and the long-run relationship among financial development, growth and other key growth factors is analyzed in a theoretically based high dimensional system by identification of co-integrating vectors through tests of over-identifying restrictions. The empirical results suggest that there exists a unidirectional causality from economic growth to financial development, conclusions departing distinctively from those in the previous studies.     

Asian Currency Crisis and the Generalized PPP: Evidence from the Far East

The present paper investigates the effects of the Asian currency crisis of 1997–1998 on the generalized PPP between several real exchange rates of the Far East countries. Monthly log of real exchange rates of the currencies of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and South Korea vis-à-vis the US dollar and the Japanese yen during 1990–2004 are applied in the investigation. Further tests are conducted between exchange rates vis-à-vis the Thai baht. Tests are conducted for periods before and after the crisis. Results from the Johansen method of multivariate cointegration show a substantial change in the relationship between these real exchange rates before and after the Asian currency crisis. This result is found using rates based on three currencies: US dollar, yen and baht.     

The East Asian model of economic development

Unlike existing models of the rapid growth of the East Asian economies that are based on stylised facts, this paper formulates a model by introducing an all‐encompassing (core) variable that explains the unique path to success in East Asia. Using three propositions, the model explains the transition from a backward economy to an industrial economy. Central to the model is policy‐augmented human capital (PAHC)—human capital with a road map for development—led by a capable leader. The model is unique in that it validates the critical role of human capital in a time of ‘high development theory’ when the emphasis was skewed towards the accumulation of physical capital, and the role of government at a time when interventionist policies were either failing elsewhere (in the 1950s and 1960s) or facing opposition (in the 1970s and 1980s). The success of the East Asian model provides evidence pointing to a preference for economic development over democracy.     

Foreign Investment and East Asian Economic Development

This article surveys and anabses the very lure literature on direct foreign investmenl (DFI) in the developing economies of East Asia and the Southwest Pacifi. Commencing with an overview of the MNC (mufcinafional corporation) presence in the region, successive sections a-amine patterns and performance of major investors, trude-DFI interrelationships, the impact of DFI on market structure and peflormance, the modalities of MNC entry, and host country policy. The latter, it is argues, is criticully importunt for assessments of the costs and benefits of DFI.     

东亚经济一体化与合作：朝向共同体

长期以来,东亚地区的经济一体化主要靠市场力量推动,区域经济合作则落后于经济一体化进程。亚洲金融危机证明,仅靠市场推动的经济一体化是脆弱的,只有加强区域经济合作,东亚地区才能增强抵御外部风险的能力,保持经济的持续繁荣。亚洲金融危机后,东亚地区迅速建立起“10 3”的合作机制,在加强金融领域合作的同时,也不断拓展在经贸投资等领域的合作,并逐步确立了以建立东亚自由贸易区和东亚共同体的长远奋斗目标。特别是在中国提出与东盟建立自由贸易区后,东亚地区的合作步伐明显加快。尽管目前离建立东亚共同体的长远目标还很遥远,但东亚地区的合作进程已不可逆转,各种形式的合作努力将最终推动长远目标的实现。     

Aid and economic growth in LDCs: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper uses a disaggregated cross-national time-series aid data and a Least Squares Dummy Variables (LSDV) model to investigate the effects of aid on economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. We find that, contrary to what some critics of aid argue, aid has a small but positive and significant effect on economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. A simultaneous equation specification of the model shows that aid affects economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa directly and indirectly through increased domestic savings and investment.     

The interdependence of national economies and the synchronization of economic fluctuations: Evidence from the LINK project

Zusammenfassung Die Interdependenz nationaler Volkswirtschaften und die Synchronisierung wirtschaftlicher Schwankungen: Ergebnisse aus dem LINK-Projekt. — In diesem Aufsatz werden Ergebnisse aus dem Projekt LINK über die internationale übertragung wirtschaftlicher Schwankungen und der Inflation vorgelegt und interpretiert. Die Hauptergebnisse stammen von Multiplikator-Simulationen der Wirkungen verschiedener Schocks auf das Realeinkommen und die Preise im In- und Ausland. Wir haben die LINK-Simulationen durch eine historische Untersuchung erg?nzt, in der wir den unterschiedlichen Grad der Synchronisation der Konjunkturzyklen in 16 Industriel?ndern w?hrend der letzten 25 Jahre analysieren und einige empirische Ergebnisse über die quantitative Bedeutung der Stillegung von Reserven zum Ausgleich unerwünschter Ver?nderungen der monet?ren Basis durch Devisenmarktinterventionen vorlegen. Die Multiplikatoranalysen konzentrieren sich auf die Modelle von Industriel?ndern, die in dem Projekt LINK enthalten sind. Die Modelle werden mit Hilfe eines zentralen Handelsmodells durch Au\enhandelsmengen und -preise verbunden. Auf diese Weise sind die internationalen Str?me von Gütern und Dienstleistungen — aber nicht die Kapitalstr?me — in dem LINK-System endogen. Die Wechselkurse sind exogen, so da\ die Multiplikatoren so interpretiert werden müssen, da\ sie auf ein System mit fixen oder manipuliert floatenden Wechselkursen anwendbar sind.

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Résumé L’interdépendance des économies nationales et la synchronisation des fluctuations économiques: L’évidence du projet LINK. — Dans cet article nous présentons et interprétons l’évidence du projet LINK concernant la transmission internationale des fluctuations économiques et de l’inflation. L’évidence principale base sur les simulations multiplicatrices des effets des chocs différents sur le revenu réel et les prix locaux et étrangers. Nous avons pris aussi l’opportunité de compléter les simulations LINK par une analyse historique du degré variant de synchronisation des cycles de la conjoncture dans 16 pays industrialisés pendant les 25 années passées et par quelque évidence empirique de l’importance quantitative de la stérilisation de réserve de compenser des changes indésirables de la base monétaire qui dérivent de l’intervention de change. L’analyse multiplicatrice se concentre sur les modèles structuraux des pays industrialisés compris dans le projet LINK. Les modèles sont liés aux quantités et aux prix des exportations et des importations par un modèle central de commerce extérieur. C’est pourquoi les flux internationaux des biens et des services sont endogènes dans le système LINK, mais les flux des capitaux ne le sont pas. Les taux de change sont exogènes, en manière que les multiplicateurs doivent être interprétés comme à appliquer à un régime des taux fixes ou des taux managés flottants.

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Resumen La interdependencia de economías nacionales y la sincronización de fluctuaciones económicas: evidencias del proyecto LINK. — En este artículo presentamos e interpretamos evidencias del proyecto LINK concernientes a la transmisión de fluctuaciones económicas e inflación. La evidencia principal es la de simulaciones multiplicadoras de los efectos de varios ?shocks? sobre el ingreso real y los precios, tanto internos como externos. También hemos tomado la oportunidad para complementar las simulaciones del LINK con un análisis histórico de variación del grado de sincronización de ciclos comerciales en 16 países industrializados a través de los últimos 25 a?os y con alguna evidencia empírica, de la importancia cuantitativa de la estirilización de reservas para neutralizar cambios no deseados en la base monetaria provenientes de intervenciones de moneda extranjera. Los analisis multiplicadores se concentran sobre los modelos estructurales de países industriales incluidos en el proyecto LINK. Los modelos están ligados por cantidades y precios de exportación y las importaciones por medio de un modelo de comercio central. De esta manera los flujos internacionales de bienes y servicios son endógenos en el sistema LINK, pero los flujos de capital no. Las tasas de cambio son exógenas, de tal manera que los multiplicadores deben interpretarse como correspondientes a un regimen de tipos de cambio fijos o flexibles manejados.

     

全球制造业一体化中的中国与东亚地区的投资合作

根据流行的贸易投资理论,中国入世将会在贸易增长的同时外商直接投资趋于下降,但实际情况却出现了相反的结果.2001年实际投资增幅约17%,由2000年的407亿元增加到468亿元.2002年1-9月实际外商直接投资达到395.56亿美元,全年将首次超过500亿美元.中国在进出口贸易迅速增加的同时,外商直接投资和协议外商直接投资也出现大幅度增加,形成中国入世后的"投资之迷".     

以中国为中心的东亚经济新秩序正在浮现

东亚是指中国、日本和四个新兴工业经济体(韩国、台湾、香港、台湾和新加坡),以及东盟经济体。东亚第一波高增长由日本引领,并迅速扩散到四个新兴工业化经济体和一些东盟国家。这是第一代东亚共同体的崛起。东亚第二波高增长是由中国引领的,目前正被扩散到整个东亚区域。比较而言,中国引领的第二代东亚共同体在经济上比日本引领的第一代更为强大。中国不仅是东亚增长的引擎,也是区域经济整合的催化剂。然后,在未来相当长的时期内,中国还不能改变东亚地缘政治的形势。中国和平崛起这一理念并未得到东亚国家的广泛认同。中国与其他东亚经济体的总体关系仍将是政冷经热的局面。美国不断在东亚增强其政治和战略地位,使得中国与其他东亚经济体的新兴关系更为复杂化。因此,东亚现有的地区秩序将继续被不确定性和不稳定性因素所破坏。东亚共同体不仅需要建立在可持续的经济增长和地区整合的基础上,还需要建立在相互具有和睦安全关系的基础之上,因此在未来还有很长的路要走。     

建造“东亚经济圈”的构想

本分别分析中、日、韩、印4国与东盟建立自由贸易区的利弊得失，比较全面地论证了建造“东亚经济圈”构想的前景、障碍，认为4个“1 10”不等于“4 10’，但4个“1 10”构想的实现，是实现“4 10”构想的有效途径和保证。在区域经济一体化的大趋势中，“东亚经济圈”是世界特别是亚洲国家共同关心的课题。     

共享增长:东亚区域经济合作的现实与思考

一、东亚区域经贸一体化趋势已凸现东亚区域内的一体化合作,曾以亚太经合组织(APEC)为中心,形成一种自主且松散的开放式合作,而近年迅速发展的是以双边经济合作协定(EconomicPartnershipAgreement,简称为EPA)或自由贸易协定(FreeTradeAgreement,简称为FTA)为代表的实际经济领域的合作,[1]及以东盟+中日韩框架为依托、以清迈协议为标志的货币金融领域的合作。东亚经济与贸易发展已明显表现出强劲的一体化趋势。截止到2003年3月,东亚区域内在实际经济领域已经生效或正在协商的双边合作协议(以中日韩为核心)已覆盖东盟10个国家以及中国…     

东亚经济一体化及东北亚经济合作前景

在东亚地区推进正式的经济一体化的可能性在增大.亚洲金融危机以后,日本一新加坡EPA等双边自由贸易协定谈判,以及东盟+3(即10+3)体制,从多方面进行着经济一体化的活动,而且2001年11月在文莱举行的第五届东盟+3首脑会议上,韩国的金大中总统建议把东亚自由贸易区作为长期目标加以推进.