The U.S.–China trade war: Tariff data and general equilibrium analysis

The current trade war between the United States and China is unprecedented in modern history. This study introduces a database of tariff increases resulting from the trade war and quantifies the impacts using the canonical GTAPinGAMS model calibrated to the recently released GTAP version 10 accounts. We find that the remaining tariff increases as of March 2020 after the phase one trade deal decrease welfare in China by 1.7% and welfare in the United States by 0.2%. Impacts on sectoral revenue are reported for both countries. China's exports to and imports from the United States are reduced by 52.3% and 49.3%. The trade flow between the United States and China will be diverted to their major trade partners resulting in higher welfare in those countries, including many Asian countries. The estimated impacts are robust to using alternative trade elasticities and are amplified in the absence of the phase one tariff reductions.     

The J-Curve and Japan–China commodity trade

Previous studies that have tested the J-Curve phenomenon for Japan or China employed either aggregate trade data between each country and the rest of the world, or aggregate bilateral data between two trade partners. These studies have found no support for the J-Curve. Suspecting that their models could suffer from aggregation bias, in this paper, we disaggregate bilateral trade flows between the two countries and examine trade by 73 industries. We find evidence of the J-Curve phenomenon in 24 industries, a unique finding for trade between Japan and China.     

The other trade war: Quantifying the Korea–Japan trade dispute

In mid-2019 a new trade war between Korea and Japan started heating up, while the U.S.–China trade war held the spotlight. This paper documents the recent Korea–Japan trade dispute and quantifies its economic impacts. We consider a set of non-tariff distortions—Japanese export controls combined with Korean boycotts of Japanese goods. We simulate the impact of these actions using a multi-region general equilibrium model calibrated to the GTAP version 10 accounts and observed trade responses in the Korea Customs Service data. We find a welfare loss of 0.144% ($1.0 billion) for Korea and 0.013% ($346 million) for Japan. Sectoral impacts include a 0.25% reduction in chemical production in Japan. In Korea the reduction in imports from Japan is offset by increases in domestic production and imports from other countries.     

Carbon emissions,trade liberalization,and the Japan–ASEAN interaction: A group-wise examination

As in any modern economy, trade is central to the progress of the economy in the Association of Southeast Asian Countries (ASEAN) region, but environmental degradation occurs with globalization. Using panel data from the period 1970–2006, this study examines the interaction between trade and the environment in terms of carbon emissions for the group of ASEAN countries. The results demonstrate that CO₂ emissions display an inverted-S shape in the region. In general, exports as a percentage of the gross domestic product (GDP) are main contributors to carbon emissions in the developed, developing and late-developing ASEAN countries. The study found no evidence for the Foreign Direct Investment’s (FDI) deteriorating impact on environmental quality. Moreover, Japan’s imports from the region do not cause pollution while China’s imports stimulate the pollution per capita.     

Does the internet generate economic growth,international trade,or both?

Recent cross country panel data studies find a positive impact of internet use on economic growth and a positive impact of internet use on trade. The present study challenges the first finding by showing that internet use does not explain economic growth directly in a fully specified growth model. In particular openness to international trade variables seem to be highly correlated with internet use and the findings in the literature that internet use causes trade is confirmed here suggesting that internet use impacts trade and that trade impacts economic growth. A simultaneous equations model confirms the positive and significant role of internet use to openness and the importance of openness to economic growth. Internet use shows to be more impacting trade in non-high income countries than in high income countries whereas the impact of trade on economic growth is the same for both income groups.     

Comparison on Venture Capital Mechanism between the U.S. and Japan and Its Implications

Focusing on the mechanism of venture capital in fund-raising, domain, stage, scale, and exit, this paper makes a comparison on the differences of venture capital mechanism between the U.S.A. and Japan. Further, it probes into the causes of these differences in structures of resource and organization and cultural background of venture capital. And finally it summarizes on the policy implications in developing venture capital in China.     

Neutrality and free trade: Sweden and trade liberalisation, 1948–1958

Abstract

This article discusses the Swedish attitude to European economic cooperation, an attitude that has been described as reluctant. The traditional explanation for this has been Sweden's neutrality. This explanation has been challenged by researchers, who have claimed that a nationally self-sufficient social democracy was responsible for the reluctance towards Europe. In this article, neutrality is still seen as the main explanatory factor. Swedish strategies for dealing with European integration linked the concepts of neutrality and global free trade. Nordic cooperation was also seen as a strategy to meet demands for European integration. Swedish activities within the European organisations were limited by neutrality concerns. Within these limits Sweden worked for economic policy solutions, which might be called social democratic.     

Do exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the trade balance? Evidence from U.S.–Korea commodity trade

Previous studies of the effects of exchange rate changes on Korea’s trade balance have assumed symmetry between currency depreciation and appreciation. In this paper, we distinguish between the two to show that the effects at the industry level are in fact asymmetrical in most industries for Korea’s bilateral trade with the U.S. We employ an auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach using quarterly data for the period 1989–2014 for the 79 3-digit industries in which trade between Korea and the U.S. took place. Overall, our model incorporating differentiated responses for appreciation versus depreciation reveals a more significant impact of the exchange rate on commodity trade between Korea and the U.S. than a more standard model that imposes symmetry.     

The U.S. proposed carbon tariffs, WTO scrutiny and China’s responses

With governments from around the world trying to hammer out a post-2012 climate change agreement, no one would disagree that a U.S. commitment to cut greenhouse gas emissions is essential to such a global pact. However, despite U.S. president Obama’s announcement to push for a commitment to cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 17% by 2020, in reality it is questionable whether U.S. Congress will agree to specific emissions cuts, although they are not ambitious at all from the perspectives of both the EU and developing countries, without the imposition of carbon tariffs on Chinese products to the U.S. market, even given China’s own announcement to voluntarily seek to reduce its carbon intensity by 40–45% over the same period. This dilemma is partly attributed to flaws in current international climate negotiations, which have been focused on commitments on the two targeted dates of 2020 and 2050. However, if the international climate change negotiations continue on their current course without extending the commitment period to 2030, which would really open the possibility for the U.S. and China to make the commitments that each wants from the other, the inclusion of border carbon adjustment measures seems essential to secure passage of any U.S. legislation capping its own greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, the joint WTO-UNEP report indicates that border carbon adjustment measures might be allowed under the existing WTO rules, depending on their specific design features and the specific conditions for implementing them. Against this background, this paper argues that, on the U.S. side, there is a need to minimize the potential conflicts with WTO provisions in designing such border carbon adjustment measures. The U.S. also needs to explore, with its trading partners, ccooperative sectoral approaches to advancing low-carbon technologies and/or concerted mitigation efforts in a given sector at the international level. Moreover, to increase the prospects for a successful WTO defence of the Waxman-Markey type of border adjustment provision, there should be: 1) a period of good faith efforts to reach agreements among the countries concerned before imposing such trade measures; 2) consideration of alternatives to trade provisions that could reasonably be expected to fulfill the same function but are not inconsistent or less inconsistent with the relevant WTO provisions; and 3) trade provisions that should allow importers to submit equivalent emission reduction units that are recognized by international treaties to cover the carbon contents of imported products. Meanwhile, being targeted by such border carbon adjustment measures, China needs to, at the right time, indicate a serious commitment to address climate change issues to challenge the legitimacy of the U.S. imposing carbon tariffs by signaling well ahead that it will take on binding absolute emission caps around the year 2030, and needs the three transitional periods of increasing climate obligations before taking on absolute emissions caps. This paper argues that there is a clear need within a climate regime to define comparable efforts towards climate mitigation and adaptation to discipline the use of unilateral trade measures at the international level. As exemplified by export tariffs that China applied on its own during 2006–08, the paper shows that defining the comparability of climate efforts can be to China’s advantage. Furthermore, given the fact that, in volume terms, energy-intensive manufacturing in China values 7 to 8 times that of India, and thus carbon tariffs have a greater impact on China than on India, the paper questions whether China should hold the same stance on this issue as India as it does now, although the two largest developing countries should continue to take a common position on other key issues in international climate change negotiations.     

Japan and the great divergence, 730–1874

Despite being the first Asian economy to achieve modern economic growth, Japan has received relatively little attention in the Great Divergence debate. New estimates suggest that although the level of GDP per capita remained below the level of northwest Europe throughout the period 730–1874, Japan experienced positive trend growth before 1868, in contrast to the negative trend growth experienced in China and India, leading to a Little Divergence within Asia. However, growth in Japan remained slower than in northwest Europe so that Japan continued to fall behind until after the institutional reforms of the early Meiji period. The Great Divergence thus occurred as the most dynamic part of Asia fell behind the most dynamic part of Europe.     

Comparative productivity of Japanese and U.S. steel producers, 1958–1993

Using historical, firm-level data, this study compares the productivity of Japanese and U.S. integrated steel producers. In recent decades Japanese producers have demonstrated higher labor productivity than their U.S. counterparts, due largely to higher investment. Calculations of multi-factor productivity suggest that the American firms, nevertheless, maintain a small advantage in overall efficiency. One implication is that steel producers in Japan may have invested too heavily in capital equipment, while American companies invested too little. In both countries, productivity differences among integrated steel producers appear small relative to those found among auto manufacturers.     

Migration to U.S. frontier cities and job opportunity, 1860–1880

I use a new sample of families linked between the 1860 and 1880 U.S. censuses to study the impact of migration to frontier cities on job holding. Using variation in transportation costs between different regions of the country to generate exogenous migration, I find frontier city migration had significant job-holding benefits. The impact of migration on job holding was 68% greater for immigrants than for the native born. Expectations about job holding were the most important factor in the decision to migrate to a frontier city. Clerical workers, unskilled blue-collar workers, immigrants, and the poor were also the most likely to migrate. These results show the benefits of geographic mobility and suggest the contribution of frontier cities to economic opportunity in America's past.     

South African strategic minerals and U.S. foreign policy, 1961–1968

Conclusion The proceeding empirical data and analysis lend support to the central thesis of this work. Contrary to traditional scholarly opinion, South African mineral production, especially of chromite and platinum group metals, was indispensable to the American economy and military industrial complex. Economic dependency thus provides the key to understanding Washington’s pro-apartheid policy during the Kennedy and Johnson administrations.     

Cooperation or Confrontation in U.S.–Japan Trade? Some General Equilibrium Estimates

Using a detailed calibrated general equilibrium model, we evaluate the effects of greater cooperation or confrontation in bilateral trade relations between the U.S. and Japan. Our numerical results indicate that, if a trade war between the two were precipitated, the U.S. would eventually benefit from the mutual imposition of reciprocally optimal tariffs. While this result appears negative for those who advocate free trade, it provides the key to overcoming an important incentive problem of liberalization. Specifically, we find that Japan gains more from U.S. unilateral liberalization than from bilateral liberalization and thus has an incentive to limit its commitment to removing trade barriers. Since the U.S. has a credible threat of retaliation, however, it can bargain with Japan to implement bilateral cooperation. In other words, the strategic environment is neither completely harmonious nor discordant. A credible threat of confrontation can secure the basis of cooperation. J. Japan. Int. Econ. June 1999, 13(2), pp. 119–139. Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, Kobe 657-8501, Japan; and Department of Economics, Mills College, Oakland, California 94613, and Centre for Economic Policy Research, London, United Kingdom. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: F13, F14.     

Balancing the Baltic trade: colonial commodities in the trade on the Baltic, 1773–1856

Abstract

This article attempts to look at the connection between the Atlantic and the Baltic economies during the transition from early modern to the modern era. Previous research has seriously underestimated the importance of colonial commodities traded on the Baltic during this period. Colonial commodities, particularly from the American plantation complex, became ever more important for the Western European balance of payments on the Baltic. Already by the late eighteenth century, these commodities were on aggregate worth approximately as much as the exports of strategic commodities such as grains or iron from the Baltic at the same time. By the middle of the nineteenth century, the value of colonial commodities imported to the region far surpassed the value of such key exports from the Baltic. The colonial commodities thus constituted an important part of the balance of payments for the trade on the Baltic.     

Modernization and dependency revisited: U.S. direct investment,development, and polity in Latin America, 1950–1998*

Since World War II, the modernization model has been the mainstream paradigm for economic development. Modernization assumes that foreign capital is a necessary catalyst for transforming societies from traditional to modem. Challenges to the modernization paradigm culminated in dependency theory. Dependency theorists point to detrimental effects of foreign capital and domination (e.g., income inequality, authoritarianism, and inappropriate consumption). Despite the charge by many scholars that this debate has subsided, basic but important questions remain to be answered. This paper assesses the role of U.S. direct investment (USDI) on the major economies of Latin America over time (1950–1998). Using Vector Autoregression, we look at the long‐term political relationships between USDI, economic development, and the degree of authoritarianism in the host country's government. We treat these variables as endogenous as both dependency and modernization hypothesize relationships among them. We find that there are only weak long‐term relationships between polity, development, and USDI. These results fully support neither the modernization nor the dependency model.