Savings and early economic growth in the United States and Japan

The period of early economic growth in both the United States (the antebellum period) and Japan (the Meiji period) was marked by a pronounced rise in the rates of domestic saving and investment. This paper decomposes the observed changes in saving/investment rates and shows that substantial components – about two-thirds in US and more than one-third in Japan – were due to unexplained shifts in the saving function. In turn we argue that an important factor behind the exogenous shift in savings and hence behind the rise in the net investment rate was the increased degree of financial intermediation in each country.     

美日经济走势对中国经济的影响

回顾2000年的世界状况,由于作为全球“火车头”的美国经济继续保持强劲的增长势头,这使得经济衰退长达10年的日本也随之出现了从谷底回升的迹象,中国、东南亚、南美等国家和地区的经济状况总体向好。但随着那斯达克股市的暴跌,首琼斯工业指数和标准普尔500指数分别也跟着下挫了2．9％和7．8％。这使得美国在2000年的第四季度和第一季度出现了增长速度的大幅下滑。对美国经济有相当大依赖性的日本经济,情况也随之恶化,再次走进谷低,同时,受美日经济增长放缓的影响,欧盟的经济进一步疲软。由于美国“泡沫经济”波及全世界,在这一年多的时间里,全球大约10万亿美元的市值消失了,这个数字相当于全世界GDP总值的1／3,世界经济状况发生了逆转。     

Assessing foreign direct investment relationships between China,Japan, and the United States

China has received enormous inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) in recent years, including significant flows from Japan and the US. We examine these investment flows in detail to gain perspectives on their relative importance for the three countries involved. We also analyze the industrial composition of FDI flows over time. American FDI flows to China have been less concentrated in manufacturing than average for investors in China while Japan's FDI flows have been much more concentrated in manufacturing, particularly in transport, electrical and machinery industries in recent years. Using survey data from American and Japanese affiliates, we compare the employment patterns and sales destinations of American and Japanese affiliates in China. We find a much higher degree of export-orientation for Japanese affiliates than American affiliates, with the latter tending to make the vast majority of their sales in the Chinese market. Over time, however, we find a tendency towards convergence in the sales destinations of Japanese and American affiliates.     

The need for economic policy coordination between Europe,Japan, and the United States: Policy recommendations for the 1990s

Better policy coordination between Europe, Japan, and the United States is urgently needed in order to restore economic growth and to diminish mutual trade imbalances. Using the EC Compact model it is shown how coordinated fiscal policies can contribute to reaching these goals in the 1990s. For Europe, the most plausible fiscal policy option seems to be a combination of lower direct taxes, public spending cuts, and wage moderation; for Japan a more expansionary fiscal policy is feasible. For the United States, however, public spending cuts or tax increases are necessary conditions for better economic performance. In addition, for all three blocks a swap between tax reduction and wage moderation is recommended.     

Exchange Rate Behavior of Canada,Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States

We revisit a significant research topic on exchange rate behavior by restating the test procedures with an appropriate econometric methodology to re-examine three aspects. (i) Does the inflation (price) factor affect nominal exchange rate? (ii) Do relative interest rates affect a country’s exchange rate? (iii) Do the price and interest rate effects hold if controls for non-parity factors are embedded in tests? The quarterly data series for this study are taken over 55 years. The traditional parity condition model with price and interest rate as criterion variables is extended to take into account recently-verified non-parity factors, namely trade, productivity and foreign reserves. The results affirm that both parity factors and also the non-parity factors significantly affect the exchange rates of Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. In our view, these findings relating to four free-floating currencies help extend our knowledge on how currency behavior is consistent with parity and non-parity theorems using a relevant methodological approach in this study.     

Volatility of real GDP: some evidence from the United States,the United Kingdom and Japan

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the volatility of real growth rates for the United States, the United Kingdom and Japan. Three ARCH-type models (GARCH, T-GARCH and E-GARCH) were estimated utilizing the maximum likelihood method. The GARCH version provided the best statistical fit, suggesting that volatility is variable and is symmetric than asymmetric to real growth rates in GDP.     

中日美家族企业比较:基于文化的视角

以个人主义为中心的美国文化,成就了美国企业以个人分散持股为主的现代公司治理模式、自由竞争式雇佣模式、以企业为重心的传承模式以及自由放任式的政企关系;以家(社团)为中心的日本文化,形成了日本企业以法人持股为主的现代公司治理模式、家庭温情式雇佣模式、以家业为重心的传承模式以及企业与政府间或紧或松的政企关系;而以家庭为中心的中国文化,则形成了中国家族企业的家族式治理模式、差序格局式雇佣模式、以家族为重心的传承模式以及企业与政府之间寻租与被寻租的政企关系。中国企业在选择发展模式上,一定要注意文化的相适性。     

汇率波动与居民消费:基于中国、美国、日本数据的检验

理论研究表明,国家之间资本和产品流动的渠道越通畅、风险共享程度越高,国内消费增长状况与货币币值波动状况的联系就越紧密。本文利用2001年第1季度至2010年第4季度中国、美国、日本的数据对此命题进行验证,研究结果表明:在2005年7月人民币汇率形成机制改革前后,中美、中日消费支出增长率之差与汇率变化率的关系发生了显著的转变,汇改前表现为不相关甚至负相关,汇改后表现为正相关;而美日情形则有所不同,消费支出增长率与汇率变化率关系一直表现为正相关。这为中国扩大居民消费需求提供了新的解决思路。     

A comparison of national and international aggregate supply and demand var models: The United States,Japan and the European economic community

Zusammenfassung Ein Vergleich von nationalen und internationalen VAR-Modellen mit Angebots- und Nachfrageaggregaten: USA, Japan und Europ?ische Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft. - Es wird gezeigt, da\ für nationale Volkswirtschaften und auch für supranationale Gebilde vektorautoregressive Modelle konstruiert werden k?nnen, die Ergebnisse liefern, welche mit einem theoretischen Rahmen für Aggregate des Angebots und der Nachfrage in Einklang stehen. Energiepreise sind in allen Modellen einigerma\en wichtig, aber Geldangebot und Zinsen sind in dem EWG-Modell ziemlich unbedeutend. Natürlich kann dieses Ergebnis auf die Unterschiede zwischen der EWG, den USA und Japan zurückzuführen sein oder auf die Aggregation innerhalb des EWG-Modells. Trotzdem stimmt dieses Ergebnis mit den theoretischen Erwartungen überein, wonach alle Volkswirtschaften gemeinsamen weltweiten Angebotsschocks gegenüberstehen, aber - bei manipulierten floatenden Wechselkursen - eine gewisse monet?re Unabh?ngigkeit besitzen.

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Resumen Comparación de modelos autoregresivos de oferta y demanda agregada nacionales e internacionales: EE.UU., Japón y la Comunidad Económica Europea. - Se demuestra que los modelos VAR pueden ser construidos para economias tanto nacionales como supranacionales con resultados consistentes con el marco teórico de oferta y demanda agregadas. Los precios de energia tienen una cierta importancia en todos los modelos; la oferta monetaria y las tasas de interés no son importantes en el modelo para la CEE. Sin embargo, este resultado es consistente con expectativas teóricas segiín las cuales todas las economias enfrentan shocks de oferta globales comunes, pero disponen de un cierto grado de independencia monetaria en el marco de una flotatión administrada del tipo de cambio.

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Résumé Une comparaison entre des modéles VAR nationaux et internationaux d’offre et demande agrégée: les E.U., le Japon et la CEE. - Les auteurs demontrent que les modéles vecteurautorégressifs peuvent etre construits pour des économies nationales aussi bien que supranationales et que ces modeles produisent des résultats qui s’accordent avec le cadre théorique de l’offre et de la demande agrégée. Les prix d’énérgie sont importants dans tous les modéles jusqu’a un certain point, mais la masse monétaire et les taux d’ interet sont moins importants dans le modéle CEE. Naturellement, ce résultat peut etre expliqué par les différences entre la CEE et les E.U. et le Japon ou par l’agrégation dans le modéle CEE. Cependant, ce résultat est consistant avec des expectatives théoriques car toutes les économies sont confrontees avec des chocs d’offre communs globaux mais disposent de quelque independance monétaire grace au systéme de changes flottants dirigés.

     

Asymmetric volatility of real GDP: some evidence from Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States

The recent empirical investigation of conditional volatility in real GDP growth rates of Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States by Hamori [Jpn. World Econ. 12 (2000) 143] finds no evidence of asymmetry. This paper re-visits the issue of asymmetric volatility using a similar approach with some modifications. We find statistically significant evidence of asymmetric volatility in the real growth rates of the United States and Canada. As such, it may be premature to conclude that business cycle indicators generally do not exhibit volatility asymmetry.     

中国、美国和欧洲:新三边关系中的合作与竞争

在国际关系多极化迅猛发展的今天,中国、美国和以欧盟为代表的欧洲正在成为全球政治经济中的三大力量中心。相应地,如何认识中、美、欧之间的三边关系及其互动模式并加以前瞻性地应对,这不仅是中国外交战略必须思考的问题,也会牵涉未来国际体系的构造。作者对现有的三边关系理论提出了改进,试图揭示中、美、欧新三边关系的基本特征:即这种三边关系仍处于初级阶段;三方共处模式是其基本形态;美欧稳定婚姻模式是其一般特征;三边博弈具有动态变化特征,且在不同议题领域内存在差异;三边关系具有开放性。考虑到中、美、欧三边关系的上述特点,处理这种三边关系的制度框架应该有多个路径,主要应以双边和大多边为主,并考虑发展尝试性的三边机制。     

Trade deficits and trade conflict: The United States and Japan

The US trade relationship with Japan was characterised by periods of intense conflict over 1969−95. The paper identifies five such periods, beginning with two bitter conflicts in 1971 and ending with an equally difficult conflict over autos in 1994−95. It presents econometric evidence suggesting rising Japanese penetration of the American market and growth in the bilateral merchandise trade deficit with Japan were important causes of these crises. Over 1996–2016, US-Japan relations were handled in a much less confrontational manner, as import penetration declined. The difficulties Japan’s economy faced; heightened security concerns in Northeast Asia; a broader US shift away from unilateral measures; greater acceptance of the trade deficit; and perceptions that Japan was moving to open its economy were also important in lessening tensions in the bilateral relationship. Strong concerns with the US trade deficit re-emerged under the Trump Administration, but the two economies were, during this period, able to address trade differences without a major confrontation.     

Economic growth and income inequality in the Asia-Pacific region: A comparative study of China,Japan, South Korea,and the United States

This paper builds an inequality-growth-redistribution nexus, and applies the Engle–Granger two-step ECM approach to estimate the long-run and short-run relationships between inequality and growth for four economies: China, Japan, South Korea, and the United States. Our estimation results support the S-shaped curve hypothesis relating GDP per capita to inequality with different starting points for the four economies. For the reverse relationship, we find a positive causal relationship for China, Japan, and the United States, indicating that increased income inequality spurred economic growth. In addition, we find mixed results on the effect of trade openness on inequality and growth. Trade openness reduced inequality in the United States and Japan, worsened it in China and had no significant effect in South Korea. In the inequality-GDP per capita relationship, exports provided an impetus to economic growth for Japan. As for redistribution, although fiscal redistributive measures reduced inequality in Japan, they played no major role in the other three countries. With regard to the inequality-GDP per capita relationship, all countries except for China show a negative effect of fiscal redistribution on GDP per capita.     

中日理解的加深有助于中日间的技术转移——中国高科技产业代表团访日观感

一、访问的背景与日程应日本国际大学桥田教授和日本丽泽大学LauSimYee副教授及“日本、韩国、中国的创新体制比较研究课题组”的邀请，２００２年１月２８日至２月２日，中国民营科技促进会副会长兼秘书长、《中国科技产业》杂志社社长王建华、中国科技促进发展研究中心柳卸林博士、清华大学科技开发部常务副主任张凤桐博士一行三人对日本进行了一个星期的讲学和访问。代表团讲学访问的地方有：日本政府经济产业研究所、日中科技产业技术交流中心、日本大学管理学院、日本最大的风险投资机构JAFCO、神奈川科学园、日本政策银行、日立公…     

The world economic crisis and the children: A United States case study

This is a review of the United States experience with issues of child health and services, as they relate to changes in economic trends. No existing data systems are entirely adequate for reporting on the current health status of children, an important consideration for the monitoring of children's health in the United States is the focus on subgroups such as those who are disadvantaged for reasons of poverty, discrimination or geographic isolation. Ample evidence exists that children living in poverty suffer adverse health consequences and that the proportion of children living in poverty in the United States has increased steadily since 1975 and dramatically since 1981. Most measures of health status and health risks for children show steady improvements througout the 1970s. The exercise of public responsibility for financing and providing essential services and supports held constant or improved during this recession period, especially during the recession of 1974–1975. The health status and risks for children since 1981 appear to be adversely affected which must be attributed to a combination of circumstances that include serious recession, increased poverty rates for households with children and diminished health benefits and social support services. These findings suggest that when either local or widespread economic reversals are anticipated, health services and social supports for children need to be expanded rather than contracted.     

发达国家居民住房租赁市场的经验及借鉴——以德国、日本、美国为例

成熟的住房租赁市场,不仅可以有效提高居民消费率,而且能够实现居民买房和租房的效用均衡,减缓房价上涨对宏观经济的冲击。本文分析总结了德国、美国、日本等主要发达国家居民住房租赁市场的发展和管制经验,并从法律保障、开拓房源、保护承租人利益、发放租金补贴等方面发展我国的住房租赁市场提出了政策建议。     

Exchange Rate or Wage Changes in International Adjustment？ Japan and China versus the United States

I. IntroductionSeldom have the pages of the financial press in Europe and America been so full of graveeditorializing on the need for a major depreciation of the dollar to correct the “unsustainable”current account and trade deficits of the United States. Much of this international moralizingdirects the high-growth East Asian countries to stop pegging their currencies to the dollar– or, in China’s case, to allow a large appreciation of the renminbi before moving to unrestrictedfloating.…     

Coordinated strategies for economic cooperation between Europe and the United States

Zusammenfassung Koordinierte Strategien für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit zwischen Europa und den Vereinigten Staaten. - In diesem Aufsatz wird die dynamische Spieltheorie auf die Koordinierung der Politik zwischen den Vereinigten Staaten und der EWG in einem stark aggregierten Modell angewandt und folgendes gezeigt: (i) Eine Politik, die den Einflu\ von Ma\nahmen anderer L?nder vernachl?ssigt, führt in den USA zu Fiskalischen Einschr?nkungen und einer Verminderung der staatlichen Interventionen, in Europa dagegen zu einer Nachfragestimulierung, verbunden mit einer kontinuierlichen Herabsetzung des Diskontsatzes. Die EWG-L?nder sind, da sie ihre Politik nicht koordinieren, nach einigen Jahren wegen Zahlungsbilanzschwierigkeiten zu einer kontraktiven Nachfragepolitik gezwungen. (ii) Koordinierte Strategien best?tigen, da\ nicht-synchronisierte Politiken die Weltwirtschaft stabilisieren k?nnen. (in) Kooperation verbessert die wirtschaftlichen Leistungen, ausgedrückt in den Wachstumsraten und den Zahlungsbilanzen. Allerdings erbringt die ausdrückliche Zusammenarbeit kaum noch zus?tzliche Vorteile zu denen, die bereits im Rahmen der vollen Koordinierung erreicht werden k?nnen.

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Resumen Estrategias coordinadas de cooperación económica entre Europa y los EEUU.- La aplicación de un modelo dinámico de teoría de juegos a la coordinatión de política económica entre los EEUU y la CEE, como parte de un modelo altamente agregado de la economía mundial, permite concluír en este trabajo que (i) políticas que ignoran la influencia de medidas tomadas en otros países dan lugar a una contractión fiscal y a una menor interventión del Gobierno en los EEUU, pero a una estimulación de la demanda combinada con reducciones continuas de la tasa de descuento en Europa; al seguir políticas descoordinadas los países de la CEE están obligados a contraer la demanda agregada al cabo de unos a?os, debido a los problemas de balance de pagos, (ii) estrategias coordinadas confirman que políticas no sincronizadas pueden estabilizar la economía mundial; (iii) la cooperación favorece a la economía en términos de tasas de crecimiento y balance de pagos. Sin embargo, los beneficios adicionales de una cooperatión explícita resultan marginales en comparación con los beneficios ya alcanzados por la solución con coordinación total.

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Résumé Stratégies coordonnées pour la coopération entre l’Europe et les E.U. - En appliquant la théorie dynamique de jeu à la coordination de politique entre les E.U. et la CEE dans un modèle fortement agrégé de l’économie mondiale, cet article arrive aux conclusions suivants: (i) La politique qui ignore l’influence des actions suivies dans d’autres économies mène à la réduction fiscale et à moins interventions gouvernementales dans les E.U., mais à une stimulation de la demande avec des réductions continuelles du taux d’escompte en Europe. En cas d’une politique pas coordonnée les pays CEE sont forcés à prendre des mesures pour freiner la demande agrégée après quelques années à cause des problèmes de la balance des paiements. (ii) La stratégie coordonnée confirme que des politiques pas synchronisées pourraient stabiliser l’économie mondiale. (iii) La coopération peut élever le taux de croissance et améliorer la balance des paiements. Cependant, les gains additionnels d’une coopération explicite sont petits en comparaison avec les bénéfices déjà gagnés à l’aide d’une solution complètement coordonne’e.