Prediction of <Emphasis Type="Italic">k</Emphasis>-records from a general class of distributions under balanced type loss functions

We study the problem of predicting future k-records based on k-record data for a large class of distributions, which includes several well-known distributions such as: Exponential, Weibull (one parameter), Pareto, Burr type XII, among others. With both Bayesian and non-Bayesian approaches being investigated here, we pay more attention to Bayesian predictors under balanced type loss functions as introduced by Jafari Jozani et al. (Stat Probab Lett 76:773–780, 2006a). The results are presented under the balanced versions of some well-known loss functions, namely squared error loss, Varian’s linear-exponential loss and absolute error loss or L ₁ loss functions. Some of the previous results in the literatures such as Ahmadi et al. (Commun Stat Theory Methods 34:795–805, 2005), and Raqab et al. (Statistics 41:105–108, 2007) can be achieved as special cases of our results. Partial support from Ordered and Spatial Data Center of Excellence of Ferdowsi University of Mashhad is acknowledged by J. Ahmadi. M. J. Jozani’s research supported partially by a grant of Statistical Research and Training Center. é. Marchand’s research supported by NSERC of Canada. A. Parsian’s research supported by a grant of the Research Council of the University of Tehran.     

Use of typologies for ‘measuring’ self-identity change: methodological issues in longitudinal qualitative research

A microsociological research which traced the experience of 120 women (during five years of psychotherapy they undertook to resolve existential problems) used different typologies in the organisation of qualitative data. The major typology, of psychosocial identity was of importance not only in data-ordering, but also in appreciating the changes occurring to individuals during the psychotherapeutic process. The other two typologies were essentially of sensitising concepts but also represented structural social elements and broadened the microfocus to include features of four different therapies and therapeutic communities. This article discusses the methodological implications of this technical approach to ordering qualitative data, the actual research procedure used in the creation of the typologies and, in brief outline, their content.     

Optimal designs for a mixed interference model

This paper generalizes Kunert and Martin’s (Ann Stat 28:1728–1742, 2000) method for finding optimal designs under a fixed interference model, to find optimal designs under a mixed interference model. The results are based on the properties of information matrices in fixed and mixed models given in Markiewicz (J Stat Plan Inference 59:127–137, 1997). The method is applied to find a design which is optimal for any given variances of random neighbor effects. Research partially supported by the KBN Grant Number 5 P03A 041 21.     

Estimating sensitive proportions from Warner’s randomized responses in alternative ways restricting to only distinct units sampled

Warner’s (J Am Stat Assoc 60:63–69, 1965) pioneering ‘randomized response’ (RR) technique (RRT), useful in unbiasedly estimating the proportion of people bearing a sensitive characteristic, is based exclusively on simple random sampling (SRS) with replacement (WR). Numerous developments that follow from it also use SRSWR and employ in estimation the mean of the RR’s yielded by each person everytime he/she is drawn in the sample. We examine how the accuracy in estimation alters when instead we use the mean of the RR’s from each distinct person sampled and also alternatively if the Horvitz and Thompson’s (HT, J Am Stat Assoc 47:663–685, 1952) method is employed for an SRSWR eliciting only, a single RR from each. Arnab’s (1999) approach of using repeated RR’s from each distinct person sampled is not taken up here to avoid algebraic complexity. Pathak’s (Sánkhya 24:287–302, 1962) results for direct response (DR) from SRSWR are modified with the use of such RR’s. Through simulations we present relative levels in accuracy in estimation by the above three alternative methods.     

Globalization Implications for Human Resource Management Roles

Globalization influences organizations that compete for customers with high expectations for performance, quality, and cost. Globalization also exerts pressure on the Human Resource Management (HRM) function to adapt to changing organizational needs and add greater value. This paper first reviews global trends, HRM roles, and the implications of globalization and culture for HRM. Using Ulrich’s (Human resource champions: The new agenda for adding value and delivering results. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1997) HRM model and Hofstede’s (Culture’s consequences: Comparing values, behaviors, institutions and organizations across nations (2nd edition). Sage: Thousand Oaks, CA, 2001, Academy of Management Executive 7:81–94, 1993, Organizational Dynamics 9:42–63, 1980) model of national cultural differences, it is argued that knowledge of global business trends, cultural sensitivity, business knowledge, understanding local employment practices, technical skills, and innovation are increasingly important, especially in Multinational Corporations (MNC). The author presented an earlier version of this article at The Association on Employment Practices and Principles (AEPP) conference, New York, New York, October 6, 2006.     

Mapping the successful succession process in family firms: evidence from Greece

The succession process in family firms has by far been determined to be the most critical phase in the family business life-cycle (e.g. Morris et al. Journal of Business Venturing 18:513–531, 1997; Wang et al. 2000) and characterized as the period in which most family firm fatalities occur (Handler and Kram Family Business Review 1:361–381, 1988). This paper is an empirical study on Greek family firms and seeks to identify the critical success factors that have a major impact on the outcome of a generational transition in the leadership of the family firm. Based on an integrated conceptual framework proposed by Pyromalis et al. (2006), we test the impact of five factors, namely the incumbent’s propensity to step aside, the successor’s willingness to take over, the positive family relations and communication, succession planning, and the successor’s appropriateness and preparation on both the satisfaction of the stakeholders with the succession process and the effectiveness of the succession process per se. The results provide a useful insight and confirm the importance of the aforementioned factors in the succession process by mapping a safe passage through the family business succession process, and by contributing not only to the overall family business literature but also generating strong arguments in favor of the family firm as an integral entrepreneurial element for a region’s sustainable economic development.     

Statistical measurement of trees’ similarity

Diagnostic theories are fundamental to Information Systems practice and are represented in trees. One way of creating diagnostic trees is by employing independent experts to construct such trees and compare them. However, good measures of similarity to compare diagnostic trees have not been identified. This paper presents an analysis of the suitability of various measures of association to determine the similarity of two diagnostic trees using bootstrap simulations. We find that three measures of association, Goodman and Kruskal’s Lambda, Cohen’s Kappa, and Goodman and Kruskal’s Gamma (J Am Stat Assoc 49(268):732–764, 1954) each behave differently depending on what is inconsistent between the two trees thus providing both measures for assessing alignment between two trees developed by independent experts as well as identifying the causes of the differences.     

On the calibration of design weights using a displacement function

In the present investigation, we propose a new method to calibrate the estimator of the general parameter of interest in survey sampling. We demonstrate that the linear regression estimator due to Hansen et al. (Sample Survey Method and Theory. Wiley, NY, 1953) is a special case of this. We reconfirm that the sum of calibrated weights has to be set equal to sum of the design weights within a given sample as shown in Singh (Advanced sampling theory with applications: How Michael ‘selected’ Amy, Vol. 1 and 2. Kluwer, The Netherlands, pp 1–1247, 2003; Proceedings of the American Statistical Association, Survey Method Section [CD-ROM], Toronto, Canada: American Statistical Association, pp 4382–4389, 2004; Metrika:1–18, 2006a; Presented at INTERFACE 2006, Pasadena, CA, USA, 2006b) and Stearns and Singh (Presented at Joint Statistical Meeting, MN, USA (Available on the CD), 2005; Comput Stat Data Anal 52:4253–4271, 2008). Thus, it shows that the Sir. R.A. Fisher’s brilliant idea of keeping sum of observed frequencies equal to that of expected frequencies leads to a “Honest-Balance” while weighing design weights in survey sampling. The major benefit of the proposed new estimator is that it always works unlike the pseudo empirical likelihood estimators listed in Owen (Empirical Likelihood. Chapman & Hall, London, 2001), Chen and Sitter (Stat Sin 9:385–406, 1999) and Wu (Sur Methodol 31(2):239–243, 2005). The main endeavor of this paper is to bring a change in the existing calibration technology, which is based on only positive distance functions, with a displacement function that has the flexibility of taking positive, negative, or zero value. At the end, the proposed technology has been compared with its competitors under several kinds of linear and non-linear non-parametric models using an extensive simulation study. A couple of open questions are raised.     

Developing an entrepreneurial typology: the roles of entrepreneurial alertness and attributional style

This study develops an entrepreneurial typology employing two dimensions, high versus low entrepreneurial alertness and internal versus external attributional styles that helps illustrate why entrepreneurs start new businesses. The resulting 2 × 2 typology of entrepreneurs identifies four entrepreneur types based on these two dimensions: the true believer, clueless, practical, and reluctant. Using a representative sample of 315 nascent entrepreneurs from the Panel Study of Entrepreneurial Dynamics, we found that some types differed across three key entrepreneurial characteristics, need for achievement, risk-taking propensity, and commitment, thereby providing some preliminary empirical support for the typology’s validity. We conclude by discussing future research avenues.     

Keeping Work in Perspective: Work–Nonwork Considerations and Applicant Decision Making

The work–nonwork supportiveness of an organization may influence applicant decision making among young applicants. This possibility was tested using a phased narrowing decision making task and three organizational attributes (salary, number of work–nonwork supportive policies/benefits and their related culture supportiveness). Data gathered from a sample of 110 graduating college business majors partially supported the hypotheses (p < 0.05), revealing a dynamic influence of the organizational attributes across decision making stages and a differential impact of the attributes depending on their framing as family-friendly or life-friendly. Salary was especially important in initial screening of organizational options, and the organizational culture support of work–nonwork challenges was increasingly influential as the final choice was formed. Implications for young applicant attraction are discussed. The research presented here (a portion of the author’s master’s thesis at Bowling Green State University) was presented at the 2006 Annual Conference of the Society for Industrial and Organizational Psychology in Dallas, TX. Thanks go to Dr. Steve M. Jex, Dr. Scott Highhouse, and Dr. Cathy Stein for their assistance in the development of this study. Thanks are also owed to Dr. Michael Doherty for his thoughtful comments on an earlier draft.     

A meta-validation model for assessing the score-validity of student teaching evaluations

Virtually every institution of higher education in the US uses some type of student teaching evaluation (STE) instrument as a means of assessing instructors’ instructional performance in courses. Unfortunately, many administrators and faculty misinterpret STE ratings. Therefore, the present article provides a comprehensive critique of STE instruments. In particular, we build on Messick’s (Educational Measurement, MacMillan, pp. 13–103, and Messick (Am. Psychol., 50, 741–749, 1995, 1989) conceptualization of validity to yield what we refer to as a meta-validity model that subdivides content-, criterion-, and construct-related validity into several areas of evidence. We use our meta-validity model to conduct a meta-validity analysis of STEs. Specifically, we assessed the score-validity of STEs based on findings from the extant literature. We conclude that strong evidence has been provided with respect to areas of criterion-related validity; however, for the most part, weak or inadequate evidence has been provided with regard to areas of both content-related and construct-related validity. This seriously calls into question both the score-validity and utility of STEs.     

A Rose by Any Other Name: Identity and Impression Management in Résumés

Résumés provide critical information for organizations to make selection decisions and applicants with their first opportunity to influence decision makers. While résumés are intended to convey job relevant information, they also potentially provide information about applicants that could hinder their employment prospects. For example, many names give clues about an applicant’s sex or race, and previous research has shown this can have negative implications for historically disadvantaged groups. This creates an incentive for some people to engage in impression management regarding how they identify themselves in their résumé. The paper develops a typology for assessing the ethics of these attempts at impression management. Sample vignettes are provided to help explicate the proposed typology.     

Likelihood ratio tests for model selection of stochastic frontier models

An important issue when conducting stochastic frontier analysis is how to choose a proper parametric model, which includes choices of the functional form of the frontier function, distributions of the composite errors, and also the exogenous variables. In this paper, we extend the likelihood ratio test of Vuong, Econometrica 57(2):307–333, (1989) and Takeuchi’s, Suri-Kagaku (Math Sci) 153:12–18, (1976) model selection criterion to the stochastic frontier models. The most attractive feature of this test is that it can not only be used for testing a non-nested model, but also still be applicable even when the general model is misspecified. Finally, we also demonstrate how to apply this test to the Indian farm data used by Battese and Coelli, J Prod Anal 3:153–169, (1992), Empir Econ 20(2):325–332, (1995) and Alvarez et al., J Prod Anal 25:201–212, (2006).     

Value-creating functions,satisfaction and loyalty in business markets: a categorical variable approach using a robust methodology under structural equation modeling

This paper studies the effect of the value-creating functions on satisfaction and loyalty in business markets. The conceptual framework that depicts a direct effect of the manufacturer’s value-creating functions on the distributor’s satisfaction and loyalty also considers the existence of quadratic effects between satisfaction and loyalty. We used polychoric correlations (Br J Math Stat Psychol 48:339–358, 1995), together with a robust methodological approach, to analyze categorical variables under structural equation modeling (SEM) in EQS. The empirical results are based on a sample of 181 manufacturing companies located in Spain. By using the aforementioned efficient analytical procedure, the results provide strong empirical support that value creation, understood from a functionalist perspective, is an antecedent of satisfaction and loyalty in business-to-business contexts. Distributor satisfaction is significantly affected by the benefit, volume, and safeguard functions, and the indirect value-creating functions performed by the manufacturer. Distributor loyalty is directly influenced by the indirect value-creating functions, but there is no confirmation that the benefit, volume, and safeguard functions do so. Finally, distributor satisfaction does not exert any significant quadratic effect on distributor loyalty but it has a direct linear effect on that variable.     

Dangers of commitment under rational expectations

Within a New Keynesian framework, interest rate rules that respond to public expectations lead to determinate and expectationally stable solutions for any level of commitment, as shown by Waters (Macroecon Dyn 13(4):421–449, 2009). That paper also demonstrates gains to commitment, under least square learning, though over-commitment can lead to some very poor outcomes for some parameter values. This paper shows an identical outcome under rational expectations. The optimal level of commitment is unchanged if there are observation errors in the policymaker’s knowledge of public expectations, which is not the case under learning. However, if there is sufficient policymaker uncertainty about the parameter values, partial commitment is best.     

Durbin’s random substitution and conditional Monte Carlo

Durbin (Biometrika 48:41–55, 1961) proposed a method called random substitution, by which a composite problem of goodness-of-fit can be reduced to a simple one. In this paper we provide a method of finding the p-value of any test statistic, for a composite goodness-of-fit problem, based on the simulation of a large number of conditional samples, using an analog of Durbin’s proposal in a reverse-type application. We analyze a Bayesian chi-square test proposed in Johnson (Ann Stat 32:2361–2384, 2004) which relies on a single randomization and relate it with Durbin’s original method. We also review a related proposal for conditional Monte-Carlo simulation in Lindqvist and Taraldsen (Biometrika 92:451–464, 2005) and compare it with our procedure. We show our method in a non-group example introduced in Lindqvist and Taraldsen (Biometrika 90:489–490, 2003).     

A new condition for identifiability of finite mixture distributions

In this paper a sufficient condition for the identifiability of finite mixtures is given. This condition is less restrictive than Teicher’s condition Teicher H, Ann Math Stat 34:1265–1269 (1963) and therefore it can be applied to a wider range of families of mixtures. In particular, it applies to the classes of all finite mixtures of Log-gamma and of reversed Log-gamma distributions. These families have been already studied by Henna J Jpn Stat Soc 24:193–200 (1994) using another condition, different from Teicher’s, but more difficult to check in many cases. Furthermore, the result given in this paper is very appropiated for the case of mixtures of the union of different distribution families. To illustrate this an application to the class of all finite mixtures generated by the union of Lognormal, Gamma and Weibull distributions is given, where Teicher’s and Henna’s conditions are not applicable     

Christmas cards,Easter bunnies,and Granger-causality

This paper takes a closer look at the conceptual grounds of the notion of causality in Granger’s sense. We start with the often jokingly made remark that ‘Christmas card sales Granger-cause Christmas’. Then, we extend the example to the more challenging case of chocolate Easter bunny sales and Easter. We show that any references to Granger-causality in these cases are due to the misinterpretation of the concept. Moving further on methodological grounds, we argue that the concept of Granger-causality calls for a multivariate framework of analysis. This is because taking all available relevant information into account is indeed required in Granger’s definition of causality. This is also in line with rational behaviour and learning under imperfect and incomplete information. The implications of employing a multivariate framework of analysis is discussed in terms of the additional insights it brings; namely, direct, indirect, and spurious cases of Granger-causality. Finally, we examine the semantics of the definition of causality in Granger’s sense.      

Some things couples always wanted to know about stable matchings (but were afraid to ask)

In this note we study the National Resident Matching Program (NRMP) algorithm in the US market for physicians. We report on two problems that concern the presence of couples, a feature explicitly incorporated in the new NRMP algorithm (cf. Roth and Peranson in Am Econ Rev 89:748–780, 1999). First, we show that the new NRMP algorithm may not find an existing stable matching, even when couples’ preferences are ‘responsive’, i.e., when Gale and Shapley’s (Am Math Monthly 69:9–15, 1962) deferred acceptance algorithm (on which the old NRMP algorithm is based) is applicable. Second, we demonstrate that the new NRMP algorithm may also be anipulated by couples acting as singles.      

The moral–emotional foundations of political discourse: a comparative analysis of the speech records of the U.S. and the Japanese legislatures

There is a growing body of research that focuses on the supposedly close association between an individual’s moral–emotional behavior and his/her political ideology. A prominent example is Haidt’s “moral psychology,” which claims that political liberals and conservatives draw on mutually different sets of moral foundations. However, this and other arguments, which have mostly been advanced in the social context of the United States, lack a comparative perspective. In this study, we examine these arguments in broader spatio-temporal settings by way of a comparative analysis of public deliberations in the U.S. and Japanese legislatures. More specifically, with the help of well-established moral- and emotional-word dictionaries, and employing advanced computational techniques for systematic data collection, we analyze a large volume of speech data that records floor debates over decades in the U.S. Congress and the Japanese Diet to derive longitudinal moral–emotional dynamics. We then use multilevel modeling to regress the derived moral–emotional patterns of legislative deliberations in each country on various covariates to locate possible drivers of these patterns. The results of these analyses reveal more qualified relationships between a moral–emotional framework and political ideology than preceding arguments have suggested, casting serious doubt on the widespread tendency in the literature to quickly rely on an ideological explanation. The findings suggest the need for a more comprehensive approach to handling moral–emotional phenomena in political science.