Simon Kuipers: An Economist in Search of Rigour and Relevance

At the end of 1997 and after twenty-five years of duty, Professor Simon Kuipers retired as managing editor of De Economist. As a token of indebtedness and gratitude, this article reviews Kuipers' written work. The article focuses on two topics that dominate Kuipers' endeavours. First, his contributions to macroeconomic theory, with particular emphasis on his (neo-)Keynesian approach are examined. Second, Kuipers' contributions to actual monetary and economic policy are discussed, emphasis being placed on his empirical work.     

On the difference between the keynesian,knightian and the ‘classical’ analysis of uncertainty and the development of a more general monetary theory

Summary In this article it is shown that Keynes concept of uncertainty is not identical with that of Knight, as is often argued. The identification of Keynesian with Knightian uncertainty has contributed to the neglect of an aspect of Keynesian uncertainty that is important in understanding the functioning of a monetary economy. Therefore, it is concluded that monetary theory can benefit from the development of an analytical apparatus that incorporates all aspects of Keynesian uncertainty.I am indebted to Mr. J. de Haan, Professor J.A. Kregel, Professor S.K. Kuipers, Professor J. Pen, Dr. J. Snippe and Mr. A. van Witteloostuijn for their comments on an earlier version of this paper. It goes without saying that they cannot be blamed for any remaining errors.     

Labour Market Adjustment to Indonesia's Economic Crisis: Context,Trends and Implications

This paper focuses on labour market adjustment during the economic crisis of 1997–98. It shows how labour processes help explain better outcomes for the poor than were initially predicted. The Indonesian experience is viewed in a framework that contrasts two extreme models: a Keynesian world of rigid real wages, and a neoclassical situation of flexible adjustment to economic shocks. It was found that the Indonesian case is more consistent with the neoclassical than the Keynesian model, despite the tendency for greater government intervention in labour markets before the crisis. The paper also finds that the large change in relative prices from the exchange rate depreciation had a smaller effect than expected on employment structure. These conclusions are discussed in the context of major changes in labour markets prior to the economic crisis.     

How successful has stabilization policy been in The Netherlands? A neo-Keynesian perspective

Summary A modern Keynesian perspective is offered on the conduct of monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policy in the Netherlands during the period 1960-1976. A small open macroeconomic model is estimated and simulated under alternative policy rules. Striking features are a strong real balance effect on consumer spending and a significant contribution of exchange rate changes to domestic inflation. Actual policy performs no better as regards the achievement of internal and external balance than simple fixed rules. Both actual policy and fixed rules are dominated by instrument values derived from an explicit optimal stabilization approach. We would like to express our thanks to Bill and Ken Rosen for helpful discussions on estimation and stimulation techniques and to S. Kuipers and H. Verwilst for help in obtaining data. Peter Kenen and S. Kuipers offered detailed comments on an earlier draft.     

Demand and supply as factors determining economic growth

Summary In models of economic growth the long-run rate of growth is usually determined by exogenous factors like the increase in working population and technical progress. In this article the rate of technical progress is treated as an endogenous variable depending on the increase in real wages and the degree of capacity utilization. A clay-clay production model is presented. Moreover, consumption, investment, changes in wages and in prices are explained by additional equations. Numerical steady state solutions for different values of the parameters are discussed. In each case the specific role played by demand and supply is stressed.The authors are Professor of Economics and Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Tilburg, The Netherlands. They are indebted to Professor S. K. Kuipers for valuable comments on an earlier version of the article.     

The natural rate moves! A review essay of Edmund Phelps' structural slumps

Summary This review essay of Edmund Phelps' Structural Slumps.The Modern Equilibrium Theory of Unemployment, Interest and Assets argues thatStructural Slumps is an important book, which enriches neoclassical economics and has substantive things to say about the persistence of high unemployment rates in many industrial countries. However, the book does not substantiate Phelps' own claims that the structural approach represents a new paradigm in economic theory and that the new paradigm is the only convincing explanation for persistently high levels of unemployment. With respect to the first claim it is argued that the structuralist approach is not fundamentally different from neo-classical macroeconomics. With respect to the second claim it is illustrated that the empirical evidence is inconclusive as far as the alleged superiority of the structuralist approach is concerned.We would like to thank Lex Hoogduin, Simon Kuipers and an anonymous referee for useful comments. Of course, the usual disclaimer applies.     

Economic growth and induced technical progress

Summary In this article some consequences of induced technical progress for economic growth are discussed. Technical progress is assumed to be purely labour augmenting. First the rate of technical progress is explained along lines as set out by Nordhaus. Secondly we introduce a more routine-like behaviour pattern of inventors showing a relation between expenditures for R&D on the one hand and the rate of wage increase and the growth of output on the other.The emphasis of this study lies on the exploration of the macro-economic consequences of induced technical progress. To this end a vintage model with induced technical progress is constructed, on the basis of which some steady growth variants are studied. Finally simulation, experiments are carried out to investigate the dynamic properties of the model.They are indebted to Dr. S. K. Kuipers for valuable comments.     

How to derive keynesian results from first principles: A survey of new-Keynesian economics

Summary In the 1980s theoretical research in macroeconomics was dominated by what has become known as new-Keynesian economics. The principal aim of new-Keynesian economics is to explain how Keynesian results can be reconciled with the neo-classical principles of utility and profit maximization. This paper provides a survey and an assessment of New Keynesian economics. In our view, the theoretical foundation of new-Keynesian economics would be strengthened if more institutional detail is added to the analysis. The real challenge for new-Keynesian economics is to develop macroeconomics (and microeconomics) from a theory that takes the working of markets seriously.We would like to thank David Colander, Paul Davidson. Theo van de Klundert and Simon Kuipers for their comments on this paper and Esther Langeveld for research assistance. Of course, the usual disclaimer applies. An extended version of this paper, which addresses teh empirical evidence in substantially more detail is available as Research Memorandum no. 488 of the University of Groningen. Parts of section 3 are based on Van Ees (1991) and Garretsen (1992).     

Reconstructing growth theory: A survey

Summary Recent developments in the theory of economic growth aim at endogenising long-run growth. The paper discusses models in which technological change arises as a by-product of certain economic activities as well as models where some economic actions are explicity aimed at technological improvements. In addition, separate sections are devoted to the specific reconstruction of growth theory by M. Scott and models explaining stages of economic development. For expositional purposes the algebra is kept to a minimum. The focus is on theoretical models for a closed economy. Empirical work is only mentioned in passing.We are indebted to S. Kuipers, F. van der Ploeg and A. van Schaik for useful comments on an earlier version.     

Growth models and analysis of development

This paper deals with remnants of neoclassical elements in Keynesian and post- Keynesian throught, and attempts to demonstrate that the elimination of these elements from our modes of thinking would not impoverish economic analysis as a means of solving real problems.In the Keynesian analysis the causation from investment to savings is exhibited in terms of income determination. When put in terms of a capital theory model, the vector of savings is represented in two ways: firstly, real savings, and secondly, counterpart real savings. The former coincides with the investment vector and the latter with the vector of consumption goods foregone for diverting resources towards equipment making. Thus the Keynesian causation in capital theory terms makes the concept of national savings as an independent variable redundant.The Robinsonian causation in a golden age with full employment and its reversal of direction in a steady state with non-employment are then considered. But in each of these, variables like rate of savings and output-capital ratio are found to be dormat variables. They are termed as null variables which, being of no account in both full-employment and unemployment situations, could, without loss, be deleted from the repertory of analytical tools. The Harrod formula of warranted rate of growth, when put in causal form, thus becomes a redundant portion of economics of growth. The real determinants of the growth rate and real wage rate on which the analysis of growth or of development should be based, are also depicted.     

Staple theory and export-led growth: constructing differential growth

The staple theory is a subset of the export-led growth hypothesis, designed to explain the growth and economic development of resource-rich economies. It is a theory that has been misunderstood and is seen to be at odds with the stylised facts of economic growth and development as well as with mainstream neoclassical wisdom. This article presents a brief and critical historiography of the staple theory from which a simple model of staple growth and development is gleaned. As well, data are presented which suggest that staple theory remains an important analytical tool to help explain economic development and growth.     

On the scope of hydraulic macroeconomics: Some reflections on Alan Coddington's Keynesian Economics

Summary The questions which Alan Coddington's posthumous bookKeynesian Economics brings to the fore as well as the thought-provoking (rather than fully acceptable) answers it provides make it worthy of being taken up for further analysis and discussion. This review article is intended to be one possible contribution in this respect. It focuses on the way Coddington's book deals with subjectivist approaches in economics and criticises it for going astray in this respect by adopting a mistaken view on the proper method of economics and giving a mistaken interpretation of both Keynesian economics and the economics of Keynes.I am indebted to L. H. Hoogduin, I. M. Kirzner, J. A. Kregel, S. K. Kuipers, J.A.H. Maks, J. Muysken and J. Pen for their valuable comments and discussion on an earlier version of this paper. Of course, they cannot be blamed for any remaining errors.A. Coddington,Keynesian Economics: The Search for First Principles, George Allen and Unwin, London, etc., 1983. Pp. 129. £ 9.95     

Theo van de Klundert: A frontier economist

Summary Twenty-five years ago, Dr. Theo van de Klundert was appointed as Professor of Economics at Tillburg University. On the occassion of this jubilee the authors review Van de Klundert's contribution to the study of economic science in the The Netherlands. The article focuses on four topics: (1) growth and income distribution, (2) capital theory, resource economics and trade, (3) controversies between Keynesians and (4) open economy macroeconomics. A short remark is made about his teaching. Van de Klundert is praised for the quality and the comprehension of his scientific work.The authors are grateful to S.K. Kuipers and M. Peeters for their useful comments on an earlier draft of this paper.     

Effectiveness of monetary policy and limited asset market participation: Neoclassical versus Keynesian effects

This paper investigates the effects of limited asset market participation on the effectiveness of monetary policy in a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model. Although an increase in consumers who cannot access financial markets reduces the effects of interest rate policies through consumption inter-temporal allocation (neoclassical or permanent income effect), we find an opposite result: monetary policy becomes more effective as the degree of financial market participation falls. The reason has a very Keynesian flavor.     

Economic crisis and economic policy in the thirties and the seventies

Summary This article studies the causes of the deterioration of the Dutch economy after 1930 and after 1973 and potential remedies. An originally Keynesian model from the Central Planning Bureau is extended with some crucial financial feedbacks. Foreign factors and restrictive policy explain the bulk of unemployment growth in the 1930's; the opposite holds for the 1970's. Optimal control suggests the feasibility of a somewhat less restrictive policy in the 1930's, at the cost of financial targets. Fiscal discipline, combined with a less restrictive monetary policy and wage restraint in the 1970's would have improved the initial conditions for the 1980's.We gratefully acknowledge the able assistance of L.H. van der Meiden and J.J. Graafland, also of Erasmus University. Professor S.K. Kuipers and two anonymous referees provided useful comments on an earlier version.     

New revisionists and the Keynesian era in British economic policy

This article surveys the literature, which has argued that post‐1945 British economic policy should not be described as Keynesian. It attempts to apply explicit definitions of ‘Keynesian', ‘influence', and ‘the Treasury view'. It suggests that in post‐1945 monetary and fiscal policies, in the treatment of the balance of payments, and in attitudes to public expenditure, strong Keynesian influences can be detected. The idea of a ‘Keynesian era' should not be rejected and it is hinted that the failure to accelerate the growth rate, rather than the external dimension, caused the Keynesian era to unravel.     

From Phillips curve to wage curve

Summary In most traditional macroeconomic models for The Netherlands the wage equation is specified by a Phillips curve, in which wage growth is negatively related to the unemployment rate. This paper shows, however, that wage formation can better be described by the so-called wage curve, in which the wage level, instead of wage growth, depends negatively on the unemployment rate.The author thanks S.K. Kuipers and D.A.G. Draper and other colleagues of the Central Planning Bureau for their useful comments.     

Switching to the policy mode: Incentives by the OECD jobs study to change our mindset

I would like to thank Simon Kuipers and Joan Muysken for their critical comments on an earlier draft of the article.     

Loanable funds theory versus liquidity preference theory

Summary This paper argues that from a formal point of view there are no differences between the loanable funds and the liquidity preference theories of interest. This claim is based on references to publications by D.H. Robertson and J.M. Keynes. However, although these authors agree as to the factors underlying a momentary rate of interest, they are found to disagree on more fundamental matters. In particular, they make different assumptions concerning the motive forces underlying monetary economies.Research underlying this paper has been financed by the Netherlands Organization for the Advancement of Pure Scientific Research (ZWO). The author is grateful to Professors P. Davidson, S.K. Kuipers and J.A. Kregel as well as to Dr. K. Groenveld for their comments on previous versions of this paper. Of course they bear no responsibility for the final result.     

The influence of debt management on the term-structure of interest rates

Summary This article focuses onthe influence of debt management on the term-structure of interest rates. Four theories are discussed which try to explain the factors influencing the term-structure. It proved that the four theories could be distinguished according to three aspects which have been investigated by means of analysis of variance and of the estiamtion of two reduced form equations with Dutch data during the period 1950 through 1973. It could be concluded that the liquidity preference theory and to a smaller extent the preferred habitat theory fitted the data relatively well. From this it followed that the influence of debt management on the term-structure of interest rates is rather small. This article is an elaboration of a paper written at the end of the author’s study at Groningen State University. He thanks Dr. S. K. Kuipers, Mr. P. W. Otter and Mr. B. S. Wilpstra, all connected with the Groningen State University, for their advice during the writing of the paper. He also thanks Mr. A. van der Veen, who took care of all the calculation which was necessary for the elaboration. He further thanks Dr. M. M. G. Fase for the comments he made on a previous version of this article. The author works at the Central Bureau of Statistics in The Hague.