Das Verhalten von Fondsanlegern in der Schweiz

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Pflegereform 2010: Karenzzeiten in der Sozialen Pflegeversicherung

As current research as well as current data reveal, the German long-term care insurance (LTCI) is expected to run a deficit in 2012. Additionally, further expenses will result due to the newly conceptualized definition of long-term care needs—in future, five instead of three care levels are to meet the needs of LTC patients. Accounting for the demographic turbulence ahead, the German LTCI is in urgent need of a broad reform. The paper suggests a reasonable transition from the current pay-as-you-go system to a partly funded strategy thereby accounting for the burden each generation is confronted with. With the help of generational accounting, we demonstrate that a certain waiting period (Karenzzeit) until LTC benefits are granted achieves an intergenerational balance. This reform proposal stems from the analysis of the length of stay in LTC.     

Zum Studium der Sterblichkeit minderwertiger Leben

Abstract

Bei Untersuchung der Sterblichkeit unter Versicherten verfährt man im allgemeinen so, dass man die Anzahl der in einem bestimmten Zeitraum bei gewissem Alter gestorbenen Personen mit der Gesamtzahl der Personen von demselben Alter, die wärend der Observationszeit versichert waren, vergleicht. Bei einer solchen Untersuchung ist nicht nur die Kenntnis jedes gestorbenen Versicherten, sondern auch die Kenntnis des Beginns und des Aufhörens aller Versicherungen, die während der ganzen Observationszeit oder während eines Teiles derselben in Kraft waren, erforderlich.     

Zum fairen Wert der Aktienanlagen eines Lebensversicherungsunternehmens aus ökonomisch-statistischer Perspektive

The present contribution deals with the problem of an adequate determination of the “fair value” of the stock portfolio of a life insurance company taking an economical and statistical point of view. The starting point consists of three standard models from mathematical finance for the development of stock prices, the martingale model, the random walk model and the AR(l)-process, the latter as a basic model capturing mean reversion effects. The best (with respect to mean square error) forecast of the future value of the process given the information about its history then is a natural and model-based concept of a “fair value”. The question remaining now is which of the alternative models gives the best representation of the data. First of all it is explained, that the martingale hypothesis is valid neither from a theoretical from an empirical point of view. However, only in the case of a martingale the market value is the best forecast, i.e. only in this case the market value would correspond with the fair value in an economical-statistical sense. This implies that the common understanding in accounting practice that the market value is a natural candidate for the fair value is not justified in theoretical terms. With respect to the question “random walk or mean reversion?” we perform a statistical-econometrical analysis of a thirty year time series of the monthly price earnings ratios (PER) of the German stock index DAX. As a result, the AR(l)-process reveals to be a better statistical representative of the time series as the random walk. This implies, that the long term equilibrium value of the AR(l)-process is the best forecast of the fair value of the DAX-PER. Given that DAX-PER then — based on different assumptions about the earnings growth rate and the time horizon — corresponding forecasts are calculated for the DAX itself. Finally it is explained that because of the pronounced long term character of life insurance business this model based conception of a long-term fair value is ideally suited for an application to life insurance companies.     

Potenziale von Telematik-Tarifen in der Kfz-Versicherung in Deutschland

The potential of telematics contracts in motor insurance in Germany is sometimes considered to be limited. In this article we present some theoretical thoughts and empirical results to this. Certain aspects of the acceptance of telematics tariffs will be looked at in an interdisciplinary way (legally, psychologically and economically) and they will be used in considering the assessment of potentials of telematics contracts. This article includes a legal analysis of the effects of the legally prescribed introduction of the emergency call system eCall coming into force in 2018. Additionally, it presents the results of a survey with regard to direct and indirect factors affecting the acceptance of telematics tariffs (regarding, among other things, their willingness to change their individual driving behaviour as well as their interest in telematics services). The empirical results provide evidence of potentials of telematics tariffs in Germany. Furthermore competitive strategies for market penetration will be reconsidered regarding the German insurance market and telematics. Thus this article is supposed to contrast media reports, which are rather negative, and to complete existing literature about telematics, which is still mostly technically and actuarially orientated. An extension of the previous understanding is realised by the selective presentation of interdisciplinary points of view. The overall picture of potentials regarding telematics tariffs in Germany is much more diverse than the picture drawn in most relating discussions.     

Beitragssatzwirkungen der Einbeziehung von Beamten in die GKV

It is often expected that the inclusion of the civil servants in the statutory health insurance (SHI) would lead to a decrease of the health insurance contribution. Former studies that tried to analyse the effect, often needed to be calculated under certain assumptions due to missing data. For the current analysis, detailed statistics about the civil servants could be processed for the first time. There are three static models and one comparative-static model computed. The first static model simulates the risk effect (civil servants as a good or a bad risk), the second one analyses the effect of a compulsory insurance. The third model considers the gradual abolition of the health allowance system. The comparative-static model evaluates the expenses for civil servant pensioners for the year 2012 under the assumptions of the second static model.     

Vierfelder-Matrix der Markenpositionierung von gesetzlichen Krankenkassen

The branding in statutory health insurance is used for the delimitation of a legally regulated and quite homogeneous market. This paper presents a marketing concept as four-field matrix, which works out the essential determinants and severity factors. Health is here considered either emotional or rational concept. The health insurance company is regarded in this context as a saver versus supporter. The shaping factors are systematized in a four-field matrix for brand positioning (increasing the performance, motivation to comprehensive health, strengthen the capabilities, and preservation of the performance). Afterwards the concept is presented for the example of selected health insurance and critically discussed. In summary, the brands of individual health insurance can be useful classified and separated according to the present concept.     

Empirische Analyse von Fusionen in der deutschen Versicherungswirtschaft

This empirical study examines the overall success of mergers in the German insurance industry between 1972 and 2002. Toward this end, the market share and operating expense ratio of newly-merged companies are being evaluated over a period of several years. It turns out that both ratios report slightly negative results in the years immediately following a merger, with measurable improvement showing after 4–6 years, especially for the market share. Mergers of companies of roughly equal size seem to be suffering from enhanced problems, an indication that merging similarly-sized organizations is specifically difficult. In particular, the operating expense ratio shows a negative trend in approximately 50 % of all mergers.     

Arzthaftung auf der Grundlage von Statistiken

The evidence-based medicine describes the effectiveness of medical therapies by statistical success rates. It’s results can serve as standards of healthcare in medical malpractice liability cases. In the following paper it is shown that these success rates depend on the subjective judging what success is. They further depend on the way how the won data are mathematically processed. The main problem however is that the success rates are of statistical nature. It is known from mathematical statistics that a statistic result does not give any information about the behaviour of a single and specific element, in case of medicine about the effect of a therapy on a concrete patient. In consequence competitive therapies cannot be compared on the basis of statistical information in a specific medical malpractice case. A doctor must therefore inform the patient prior to a therapy about this situation.     

„Pitfalls“ bei der Berücksichtigung von Diversifikationseffekten in der Eigenmittelbestimmung von Versicherungskonzernen — eine Betrachtung aus Aufsichtsperspektive

The new solvency framework Solvency 2 is at the brink of being implemented and the dialogue between insurance industry and supervisors gets increasingly intensive. Essentially, capital adequacy requirements for insurance groups play an imminent role in current discussions. The industry stipulates that diversification effects are to be considered in capital requirements for groups and their respective subsidiaries. Hence, this article is primarily intended to emphasise on the challenges and difficulties inherent in such an approach of risk capital calculation.     

Die Umstellung der Anlage der Heubeck-Richttafeln von Perioden- auf Generationentafeln und ihre Wirkung auf die Kosten von Pensionszusagen

Most German employers are using mortality tables provided by Heubeck AG, a German consultancy firm, for actuarial calculations of company pension plans. Before 2005, Heubeck AG has been publishing projected future period tables rather than cohort tables. This paper analyzes the cost of using such period tables in actuarial calculations for an individual employee’s defined benefit pension plan. Our benchmark is a plan that is fairly priced by using a cohort table. We find that the employer may incur significant costs from using a period table for calculating plan benefits. As life expectancy tends to be underestimated, benefits granted will be too generous. In contrast, using period tables for determining provisions for plan liabilities in tax accounting doesn’t carry extra costs. Although yearly tax deductions differ when using period or cohort tables, tax shields are roughly the same in NPV terms. Thus, Heubeck’s switch to cohort tables means a significant improvement for benefit calculation but won’t have tax effects, on average.