Urban economic base as a catalyst for movements in real estate prices

We examine the relation between housing prices in an MSA and its urban economic base. We create and employ new forward-looking employment growth indices that measure the urban economic strength of an MSA and find that it accounts for a significant and sizeable portion of the house price movements in that MSA. We argue that the forward looking measure is an indicator of future agglomeration growth for the MSAs. We further partition the urban economic growth into growth by various industries and track the attribution of their growth to housing prices over time. We find that for some MSAs, home prices are driven by the same set of industries over time, whereas for others, home prices are driven by a totally new set of industries in the later quarters, due to the birth of new industries. We also analyze the impact of the diversification of an urban economic base on home price volatility and observe that diversification decreases home price volatility. The result has larger implications for urban policymakers in selecting the appropriate type of industries relative to their existing mix of industries.     

中国城市软实力对住房价格的影响——基于主成分分析法和面板数据模型

在采用主成分分析法合成软实力综合指标构建了两阶段回归模型,运用面板数据GMM估计方法就软实力对房价的影响进行估计后发现,中国35个大中城市的软实力对城市房价均具有显著的正向作用,且这种影响从东部到西部呈现出逐渐减弱的态势。也就是说,在全国范围内,城市软实力对房价均具有显著的正向影响,且不同地区的城市软实力对房价的作用程度有所差别。由此可见,城市的人文社会因素、生态环境质量、交通区位条件对城市商品房价格的影响较为显著,对城市软实力的日益重视决定着中国城市人口的居住选择。     

Segmentation in urban housing markets

This study tests the hypothesis that urban housing markets are segmented in the sense of significantly different prices per unit of housing services existing contemporaneously in spatially or structurally defined submarkets. Using an unusually rich data set for single-family, suburban Boston homes, significant differences in the prices of individual housing attributes are found; but these differences result in negligible differences in the overall price per unit of services. A main conclusion is that the market is working fairly efficiently to eliminate price premiums and discounts, at least in the portion of the market analyzed.     

Determinants of local housing growth in a multi-jurisdictional region,along with a test for nonmarket zoning

In the State of New Jersey, two rural preservation tools are paramount: (1) Zoning that sets a floor on the size of residential lots; and (2) the outright acquisition of open space or its development rights by government and nonprofit entities. The present study explores the effects of these two policies on the number of building permits issued across 83 municipalities in northern New Jersey. The empirical work is based on a widely-used urban development model that uses both monocentric and polycentric factors to allocate growth across a set of suburban communities. The study also develops a growth-based test for binding minimum-lot-size zoning, leveraging the fact that the 83 communities are in a single housing market and must serve the distribution of home and lot-size demand collectively, not individually. The study finds strong evidence of excess large-lot zoning, leading to the suppression of short-term housing growth in communities that specialize in this particular “product.” No firm evidence is found that residential development is attracted to the amenities that flow from either large-lot zoning or open space set asides.     

Which school attributes matter? The influence of school district performance and demographic composition on property values

Increasing levels of segregation in American schools raises the question: do home buyers pay for test scores or demographic composition? This paper uses Connecticut panel data spanning eleven years from 1994 to 2004 to ascertain the relationship between property values and school district attributes, such as student test scores and the racial and ethnic composition of the student body. Town and census tract fixed effects are included to control for neighborhood unobservables. The effect of changes in school district attributes is also examined over a decade long time frame in order to focus on the effect of long-run changes, which are more likely to be capitalized into prices. The study finds strong evidence that increases in percent Hispanic have a negative effect on housing prices in Connecticut, but mixed evidence concerning the impact of test scores on property values. Student test scores also appear to have increased in importance for explaining housing prices in recent years, while the importance of percent Hispanic has declined. Finally, the study finds that estimates of property tax capitalization increase substantially when the analysis focuses on long run changes.     

农民工住房问题研究述评

对农民工住房问题的研究,首先基于对农民工概念的界定,界定的关键点应在于农村户籍身份和所从事工作的非农业生产性质,不宜加入在劳动关系中所处的地位、收入来源等判定标准。国外的研究中,没有与农民工完全相同的概念,研究成果中具有参考意义的是对移民工人、城市贫民住房问题的研究,因而可借鉴性有限。国内的研究中,多侧重于农民工住房及住房政策的现存问题分析与对策研究;研究方法以个别城市的定量分析,以及逻辑推演的定性分析为主;结论建议集中于将农民工的住房保障纳入城镇住房保障体系,尚欠缺从统筹城乡的视角对农民工住房问题的深入研究。     

Racial discrimination in the Boston housing market

Recent studies suggest that price differentials between what whites and blacks pay for housing are largely a function of changes in supply and demand in the two submarkets. These studies, however, estimate models that assume a unified housing market. As a result, imputed prices of housing attributes cannot vary with location, and the analyses obscure important racial price differentials. Based on a more realistic and complex housing market theory, the model described in this paper indicates that housing prices are substantially higher in the ghetto and transition areas than in white areas, and that within the same area blacks must pay more than whites for equivalent housing.     

北京：人口剧增背景下的房价综合治理

北京市人口呈现爆炸式增长,有观点认为应放任房价上涨以此解决人口问题。本文从分析北京市近年来人口变动情况及北京市房价现状入手,分析“高房价抑制人口增长论”,提出解决人口剧增的根本性办法是加快城乡统筹,从宏观层面予以解决。在北京市人口剧增的背景下,北京房价的调控措施应该包括坚持限购政策、开征房产税、加大保障性住房建设、打击市场上垄断投机、骗购骗租等不良行为。     

城市空间结构理论——单中心城市静态模型

首先介绍了在西方城市经济理论中被广泛接受的单中心城市空间结构静态模型。然后,利用比较静态分析方法(comparativestaticanalysis),分析区位、居民收入及交通费用(区位,居民收入及交通费用为模型的外生变量(exogenousvariable))对价格和房屋消费量(价格和房屋消费量为模型的内生变量(endogenousvariable))的影响。最后,理论模型通过引进一般住房生产函数,推导出土地价格及资本密度(即建筑高度)的空间变化规律。通过对城市经济模型进一步分析(对极值条件或解的微分解析分析)得出地价(地租),资本密度(或称容积率),人口密度的空间分布规律,这些规律对城市规划,城市政策,引进市场原则和价格机制来提高城市土地利用效率都有理论指导意义。     

基于SD的城镇住房保障规模对商品房价格抑制效应仿真研究

为从定量上了解城镇住房保障规模对商品房价格影响的变化规律,本文应用Granger因果分析理论确定了影响住房保障规模和商品房价格的主要因素及其关系,构建了住房保障规模的系统动力学模型,并进行了模拟仿真。结果显示,住房保障规模增加10%可抑制商品房价格4.67%的上涨幅度,表明了保障性住房的投入对商品房价格的抑制效应,并就如何加快保障性住房建设提出了建议。     

Do political parties matter for local land use policies?

Despite interest in the impact of land use regulations on housing construction and housing prices, little is known about the drivers of these policies. Conventional wisdom holds that homeowners have an influence on restrictive local zoning. In this paper, we contend that the party controlling local government might make a major difference. We draw on data from a large sample of Spanish cities for the 2003–2007 political term and employ a regression discontinuity design to document that cities controlled by left-wing parties convert much less land from rural to urban uses than is the case in similar cities controlled by the right. The differences between governments on the two sides of the political spectrum are more pronounced in places with greater population heterogeneity and in those facing higher housing demand. We also present evidence suggesting that these partisan differences might ultimately impact on housing construction and housing price growth.     

教育资本化视角下“学区房”空间布局研究——以天津市中心城区为例

当前各地积极推行义务教育学校“学区”制,旨在破解择校难题,追求公平教育。已有研究与实践经验表明学区制背景下教育资源“资本化”现象确实存在,并带来教育资源的内生性,强化了“学区房”空间分布的不均衡。基于此,阐述“学区房”内涵以及基础教育资本化实证经验,结合天津市中心城区“学区房”空间分布特征,探讨“学区房”不均衡分布的溢出效应,进而提出改善“学区房”不均衡布局的对策。     

Determinants of the rate of home ownership of black relative to white households

This paper investigates the reasons for the lower rate of home ownership of black households compared to white households in urban areas. A model of the demand for owner-occupancy by blacks relative to the demand by whites is formulated and econometrically estimated.The principal finding is that a percentage increase in the mean level of black household incomes produces a larger increase in the relative rate of blacks' home ownership than an equivalent reduction in the price of owner-occupied housing which they face. Although significant effects of within market discrimination against blacks as reflected in higher prices of owner-occupied housing to blacks are found, attempts to associate this price premium with measures of residential segregation were unsuccessful.     

我国普通商品住房供求的影响因素及其稳定性研究

本文利用1997年到2009年全国以及各地区的房地产面板数据,借鉴蛛网模型的相关理论,构建供给与需求的联立方程,选择固定效应IV估计法拟合面板联立方程模型,对普通商品住房供求的影响因素及其稳定性进行了实证研究。结果表明,我国的普通商品住房市场处于不稳定状态,普通商品住房当期及滞后期的价格、城镇人均可支配收入、城镇就业人口、土地购置面积、经济适用房、别墅的供求状况等因素都对普通商品住房的供求变化产生较为显著的影响。     

Place utility,attribute tradeoff,and choice behavior in an intra-urban migration context

This study develops a unique methodology for analyzing intraurban migration with emphasis on housing and neighborhood attributes and preferences. When applied to a typical midwestern metropolitan area, the methodology reveals that safety and security from crime and quality of construction are the most important attributes to the home buyer. Property tax rates and nearness to work were much less important. Analysis of the intra-urban migration process through attribute satisfaction ratings for different homes revealed that the greatest increases in satisfaction were expected for those variables previously considered most important in an abstract sense.     

A dymimic model of housing price determination

This paper presents and estimates a model of the resale housing market. The data are a cross-section of monthly time series obtained from the multiple-listing service for a suburb of San Diego. The model is specified and estimated as a dynamic multiple indicator multiple cause system of equations where the capitalization rate is taken to be an unobservable time series to be estimated jointly with the unknown parameters. These are estimated by maximum likelihood using an EM algorithm based upon Kalman filtering and smoothing.The specification of the model features hedonic equations for each house sale and a dynamic equation for the capitalization rate which is constrained to make the expectation of prices equal the present value of the net returns to home ownership whenever the economic variables stabilize at steady state values. Out of steady state, the capitalization rate slowly adapts to new information.The model attributes a large portion of housing price increases of the 1970's to a fall in the capitalization rate which in turn was driven by rental inflation, tax rates and mortgage rates. Post-sample simulations indicate an initial flattening of housing inflation rates and later a fall brought on by the increase in steady state capitalization rates. In-sample simulations show that although both Proposition 13 and the inflation induced rise in the marginal income tax rates provided partial explanations for the fall in capitalization rates, the single most important factor was the acceleration in price of housing services which interacted with the tax treatment of home ownership to produce an amazing 18% average annual rate of price increase over the last seven years of the 1970's.     

Racism and urban structure

This paper begins the task of integrating models of racist behavior into general theories of urban land use. The paper derives equilibrium prices for a racist city and demonstrates that the city is less dense at the core, more dense in the suburbs, and covers a larger area than an unprejudiced city. A more complex theory of housing supply is then developed, and it is shown that racism's impact on the ghetto depends upon the ease with which maintenance can be reduced, the cost of replacing abandoned housing, and the nature of legal controls on housing quality.     

中国一线城市房地产市场辐射效应研究

近年来,我国城市房地产价格呈现出一线城市房价迅速攀升与全国城市房价普遍上涨的总体格局。本文运用空间变异VAR误差修正模型,实证分析一线城市对中西部城市房屋价格是否存在一定的辐射效应,同时厘清这种影响是正向的推动作用还是此消彼长的辐射影响,进而探讨如何在有效平抑一线城市过快上涨的房价,同时避免引起中西部城市房价可能出现的某种程度的上升,为促进房地产市场稳定健康发展提出相关政策建议。     

On the effect of fiscal zoning on land and housing values

The note is a comment on and extension of “The Effect of Zoning on Land Value,” by J. C. Ohls, R. C. Weisberg, and M. J. White. It is suggested that some of the results of that paper are very sensitive to the way in which the market for urban housing and the market for urban land are modeled. In the context of a more general model, it is shown that a major result of that paper, that land values may rise or fall, in a metropolitan area, in response to zoning, still holds, although the mechanism underlying the process is very different in the more general model. Furthermore, it is shown that the effect of such a zoning change on housing prices and consumer welfare is unambiguous; the former rises and the latter falls. Finally, it is proved that zoning by a small municipality within a metropolitan area will cause land and housing values to fall.     

Does my house have a premium or discount in relation to my neighbors? A regression-kriging approach

In the real estate literature, numerous studies have applied hedonic models to estimate the implicit value of the characteristics that influence housing prices. However, few studies have quantified the weight of location in the price of residential properties, and still fewer have quantified the premium or discount used to weigh the price of a home. In this paper, the regression-kriging method is applied to address the two previous objectives in the city of Granada, Spain. This method is also adapted, interpreted and made accessible to real estate appraisers with a view to providing these professionals with an objective, sophisticated and powerful tool in accordance with their know-how. This method can also be useful for investors, urban planners, public administrators and revenue departments, among others, as it can determine the value distribution of the location.