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投资者在金融交易过程中存在学习与模仿现象,这被称为投资者的羊群行为.目前,实证研究基本上都是运用纯粹统计意义上的方法去考察股票市场中的一个决策序列.总体上,可以将羊群行为的实证研究方法分成两大类:一类是度量机构投资者的决策群集性,另一类是研究羊群行为对股价的影响.前者包括LSV方法和PCM方法,后者包括CH方法和CSAD方法等.国内学者采用国内市场的相关数据,对我国金融市场上的羊群行为进行了较多的实证研究,得出我国金融市场存在不同程度的羊群行为. 相似文献
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2010年4月16日在中国金融期货交易所上市沪深300股指期货合约,其标志着我国股指期货市场的建立,结束了我国资本市场只有现贷没有期货的时代.本文总结了国外股指期货市场的发展观状,提出了保障我国股指期贷市场的健康发展的建议. 相似文献
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本文利用协整检验、向量误差修正模型以及脉冲响应和方差分解方法,对我国股指期货市场与股指现货市场间的价格发现功能进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,我国股指期货市场与股指现货市场存在长期均衡关系,在价格发现方面,股指现货市场起主导作用,股指现货市场的价格变化能够引导股指期货市场的价格变化。 相似文献
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贺颖 《中国商界:上半月》2011,(7):62-63
我国股指期货自2010年4月16日正式推出至今已十七个月,该产品上市以后对股票市场产生了不容忽视的影响。本文主要考察我国股指期货推出以来的运行情况,在此基础上,重点分析了股指期货的上市对股票市场正反两反面的影响,并且进一步讨论了如何趋利避害,建设有序的股指期货市场。 相似文献
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基于ARCH模型,利用收益率的横截面绝对偏离度(CSAD)作为衡量股价偏离市场收益率的指标,根据沪市50指数样本股的日收盘数据对上海证券市场羊群行为的存在性进行检验;结果表明上海证券市场在样本期间(2008年1月2日~2009年12月31日),牛市中股票市场上存在显著的羊群行为,而在市场下跌时不存在显著的羊群行为;最后分析了导致上涨和下跌两阶段的羊群行为度差异的可能原因。 相似文献
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我国股指期货于2010年4月16日正式上市,这标志着我国金融市场翻开了崭新的一页。股指期货在美国推出后便不断发展,并且在金融市场逐渐完善的法律机制和监管下发挥着日益重要的作用。本文分析美国股指期货市场的发展经验,提出其对于我国股指期货发展的借鉴作用。 相似文献
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《商业经济(哈尔滨)》2008,(19)
期货市场的风险历来是人们所关注的,而股指期货的风险更是期货市场发展中需重点关注的问题。股指期货在化解股票市场风险的同时,其自身又孕育着市场风险、流动性风险、操作风险、信用风险等新的风险。我国上市股指期货特有的风险是交易主体风险、合约风险、监管风险。为了防范我国股指期货风险,应加强股指期货风险控制机制的建设,壮大与完善股指期货的投资主体,科学合理地设计股指期货合约,建立严密的法规与监管体系,使股指期货交易有法可依、有章可循。 相似文献
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Using high‐frequency data, this study investigates intraday price discovery and volatility transmission between the Chinese stock index and the newly established stock index futures markets in China. Although the Chinese stock index started a sharp decline immediately after the stock index futures were introduced, the cash market is found to play a more dominant role in the price discovery process. The new stock index futures market does not function well in its price discovery performance at its infancy stage, apparently due to high barriers to entry into this emerging futures market. Based on a newly proposed theoretically consistent asymmetric GARCH model, the results uncover strong bidirectional dependence in the intraday volatility of both markets. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 相似文献
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股指期货的推出对我国金融市场的影响及策略研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
股指期货的推出作为完善证券市场运行机制的一部分,是我国金融发展的必然要求.如何利用股指期货的积极作用,同时防范其消极影响,成为我国证券市场面临的又一个挑战.本文通过论述股指期货的积极影响和不利因素,并结合我国的具体情况,提出我国发展股指期货的相应措施,以便对我国顺利发展股指期货有所帮助. 相似文献
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This study uses transaction records of index futures and index stocks, with bid/ask price quotes, to examine the impact of stock market order imbalance on the dynamic behavior of index futures and cash index prices. Spurious correlation in the index is purged by using an estimate of the “true” index with highly synchronous and active quotes of individual stocks. A smooth transition autoregressive error correction model is used to describe the nonlinear dynamics of the index and futures prices. Order imbalance in the cash stock market is found to affect significantly the error correction dynamics of index and futures prices. Order imbalance impedes error correction particularly when the market impact of order imbalance works against the error correction force of the cash index, explaining why real potential arbitrage opportunities may persist over time. Incorporating order imbalance in the framework significantly improves its explanatory power. The findings indicate that a stock market microstructure that allows a quick resolution of order imbalance promotes dynamic arbitrage efficiency between futures and underlying stocks. The results also suggest that the unloading of cash stocks by portfolio managers in a falling market situation aggravates the price decline and increases the real cost of hedging with futures. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:1129–1157, 2007 相似文献
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This study examines the behavior of futures prices around stock market close before and after changes to the batching period of the stock closing call. On July 1, 2002, the Taiwan Stock Exchange expanded the length of the batching period roughly 10‐fold, from an average of 30 seconds to 5 minutes. This change presents an opportunity to analyze how a stock closing method affects the behavior of index futures prices. Empirical results indicate that an increase in the length of the batching period affects the return volatility and trading volume of index futures contracts around stock market close. Furthermore, preclose stock returns have a great impact on extended futures returns when the batching period of the stock closing call is long. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:1003–1019, 2007 相似文献
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股指期货如何影响股市稳定性?——对全球主要市场的三角度实证检验 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
以全球多个市场作为实证检验对象,从股市波动率变化、系统风险变化以及股市正反馈交易行为影响三个角度,分析股指期货市场稳定作用的含义,即对股市波动的影响及其作用表现,较为全面地解读股指期货的市场稳定作用。研究发现:三个角度都支持股指期货的市场稳定作用;而抑制正反馈交易的作用最为基础、直接和显著,是股指期货市场稳定作用的更为恰当的判断标准。 相似文献
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基于沪深300股指期货真实交易数据,选取对指数拟合程度高且可交易的沪深300ETF为现货研究对象,运用静态套期保值比率估计模型(OLS、B-VAR、VECM)和动态套期保值比率估计模型(VECMBGARCH、DBEKK-GARCH、DCC-GARCH、NormCopula-GARCH、tCopula-GARCH)对最优套期保值比率进行估计,并对规避风险效果进行比较。结果表明:无论在样本内期间和样本外期间中,各模型反映出的沪深300股指期货套期保值效率都较高,考虑期货与现货市场动态相关性的NormCopula-GARCH模型套期保值效果最优。 相似文献
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国内A股市场过去几个月的几次大跌均恰逢A50指数期货交割日,市场传言是QFⅡ通过月末做空A股,使其在境外期货的空头部位大量获利。本文以A50为代表对此进行了分析,经研究认为新加坡A50指数期货目前的市场规模尚小,QFⅡ还不足以通过新加坡A50市场操纵国内A股市场,但我们也需要提高警惕,加强对境外中国概念指数期货市场的跟踪和研究,防范可能存在的市场操纵等问题。 相似文献
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股指期货与股票市场波动性关系的实证研究 总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9
以日本的N225指数期货、韩国KOSPI200指数期货和我国台湾地区证交所加权指数(TWSE)期货作为样本,通过GARCH模型的序列建模,从样本总体和分阶段子样本分别对其股指期货推出与股票市场波动性的关系进行实证检验。结果表明,台湾地区的股票市场引入股指期货后现货市场的波动性并未受到影响,而日本和韩国股票市场在引入股指期货之后其波动性加剧,但这种波动性的加剧仅仅是短期性的,长期内并无影响。 相似文献
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This paper documents a strengthening in the lead of stock index futures returns over stock index returns around macroeconomic information releases. Some evidence of a strengthening in feedback from the equities market to the futures market and weakening in the lead of the futures market around major stock‐specific information releases is also provided. This is consistent with the hypothesis that investors with better marketwide information prefer to trade in stock index futures while investors with stock‐specific information prefer to trade in underlying stocks. A small weakening in the contemporaneous relationship between stock index futures returns and stock index returns around both types of releases is also documented. This is consistent with disintegration in the relationship between the two markets associated with noise induced volatility. One by‐product of this study is new comparative evidence on the performance of adjustments for infrequent trading of index stocks based on a commonly used ARMA technique versus recalculation of the stock index using quote midpoints. The results suggest that the quote midpoint index performs at least as well as the ARMA adjusted index across the entire sample period, as well as around the different types of information releases. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20:467–487, 2000 相似文献