The impact of risk-based regulation on European insurers’ investment strategy

This paper examines the impact of Solvency II on the attainability of target returns, the attainability of portfolio efficiency and the asset allocation of European insurers. I start with a brief introduction to the Solvency II Directive, focusing on the rules for calculating solvency capital requirements (SCR) according to the Solvency II standard formula. The subsequent numerical analysis includes several portfolio optimizations focusing on six relevant asset classes for the 1993–2017 time period. I derive optimal portfolios with respect to the Solvency II capital requirements, with respect to conventional risk measures, and I combine both optimization problems. My results show that the capital requirements according to Solvency II are not adequately calibrated. Nevertheless, due to a solid equity base, the majority of European insurers are still able to attain high target returns and mean-variance-efficiency. However, undercapitalized insurers are not able to hold risk-optimal allocations of equities, real estate and hedge funds any longer. In an environment of very low interest rates, these insurers may also face difficulties obtaining their target returns. To the best of my knowledge, this is the first paper to explicitly incorporate the solvency capital requirement as a numerical constraint into the insurers’ portfolio optimization problem. As a result, my approach first provides insights about the attainable target return and the asset weights as a direct function of insurers’ equity.     

Hedge funds and optimal asset allocation: Bayesian expectations and spanning tests

This paper analyzes the contribution of hedge funds to optimal asset allocations between 1993 and 2010. The preferences of specific institutional investors are captured by implementing a Bayesian asset allocation framework that incorporates heterogeneous expectations regarding hedge fund alpha. Mean-variance spanning tests are used to infer the ability of hedge funds to significantly enhance the mean-variance efficient frontier. Further, a novel democratic variance decomposition procedure sheds light on the dynamics in the co-movement of hedge fund returns with a set of common benchmark assets. The empirical findings indicate that portfolio benefits of hedge funds are time-varying and strongly depend on investor optimism regarding hedge funds’ ability to generate alpha. In general, allocations to hedge funds improve the global minimum variance portfolio even after controlling for short-selling restrictions and minimum diversification constraints. However, due to dynamics underlying the composition of the aggregate hedge fund universe, the factor structure of hedge fund returns has become more similar to the benchmark assets over time.     

Optimal allocation to hedge funds: an empirical analysis

What percentage of their portfolio should investors allocate to hedge funds? The only available answers to the above question are set in a static mean-variance framework, with no explicit accounting for uncertainty on the active manager's ability to generate abnormal return, and usually generate unreasonably high allocations to hedge funds. In this paper, we apply the model introduced in Cvitanic et al (2002b Working Paper USC) for optimal investment strategies in the presence of uncertain abnormal returns to a database of hedge funds. We find that the presence of the model risk significantly decreases an investor's optimal allocation to hedge funds. Another finding of this paper is that low beta hedge funds may serve as natural substitutes for a significant portion of investor risk-free asset holdings.     

Zur Risikoanalyse von Hedgefonds: Ein datenanalytischer Ansatz

Hedge fund returns have a number of specific features compared to traditional investments which result in problems when applying traditional methods of risk analysis (Markowitz portfolio selection theory, Sharpe Ratio, value at risk calculation based on normal returns). These problems have to be considered adequately by insurance companies when constructing internal risk models and performing risk management for hedge funds in their investment.The present paper has its focus on the departure of hedge fund returns from the normality hypothesis, especially with respect to the statistical quantities skewness and kurtosis (fat tail problem). A statistical analysis of hedge fund index returns gives evidence that the majority of hedge fund returns show substantial departures from normality. In addition, the analysis shows that hedge fund returns are adequately represented by the family of GH-distributions developed in exploratory data analysis. Following this result a risk analysis of hedge fund strategies is performed on the basis of the GH-value at risk.     

The performance of hedge funds and mutual funds in emerging markets

Use of short selling and derivatives is limited in most emerging markets because such instruments are not as readily available as they are in developed capital markets. These limitations raise questions about the value added provided by hedge funds, especially compared to traditional mutual funds active in these markets. We use five existing performance measurement models plus a new asset-style factor model to identify the return sources and the alpha generated by both types of funds. We analyze subperiods, different market environments, and structural breaks. Our results indicate that some hedge funds generate significant positive alpha, whereas most mutual funds do not outperform traditional benchmarks. We find that hedge funds are more active in shifting their asset allocation. The higher degree of freedom that hedge funds enjoy in their investment style might thus be one explanation for the differences in performance.     

The fragile capital structure of hedge funds and the limits to arbitrage

During a financial crisis, when investors are most in need of liquidity and accurate prices, hedge funds cut their arbitrage positions and hoard cash. The paper explains this phenomenon. We argue that the fragile nature of the capital structure of hedge funds, combined with low market liquidity, creates a risk of coordination in redemptions among hedge fund investors that severely limits hedge funds' arbitrage capabilities. We present a model of hedge funds' optimal asset allocation in the presence of coordination risk among investors. We show that hedge fund managers behave conservatively and even abstain from participating in the market once coordination risk is factored into their investment decisions. The model suggests a new source of limits to arbitrage.     

Die Mitgliedschaft EG-ausländischer Versicherungsunternehmen im Sicherungsfond der Lebens- und Krankenversicherung

The present regulation of the German guarantee funds for life and health insurance offers no possibility for insurance enterprises from other memberstates of the EC to become a member of these funds. Whereas an obligatory membership for EC-foreign insurance enterprises would violate the single-license-principle for financial supervision in the EC, community law requires a possibility to become a member of the German guarantee funds on a voluntary basis. The absence of the possibility of such a voluntary membership in the German insurance supervision law leads to an inadmissible restriction of the fundamental economic freedom rights of the common market. Therefore, the German legislator has to add the possibility of a voluntary membership to his national regulation of the guarantee funds to secure an undistorted competition on the common market for insurance in the EC.     

Die Gruppenaufsicht nach dem Entwurf der Solvency II Rahmenrichtlinie

The draft framework directive for Solvency II (“Draft”) in general and the section on group supervision in particular is an impressive step towards a modern supervisory system, which is aligned with the economical reality of the insurance groups. It is to be hoped that the Draft will be implemented with only few changes.The Draft distinguishes a general and a special (group support regime) group supervision. The general group supervision constitutes a much more modern concept than the current Insurance Groups Directive, since it partly modifies the solo supervision (internal model to be approved by the group supervisor) and introduces a group based solvency requirement, the calculation of which allows for diversification effects on a group level.The group support regime, which applies only if an application has been approved by the group supervisor, allows to recognise such diversification effects by allowing the parent undertaking to replace paid-up own funds in a subsidiary undertaking by a group support declaration. Conditions for group support are in particular that the respective subsidiary is subject to an integrated risk management and internal control system, that the group solvency requirement is covered with own funds, and that the parent undertaking commits to promptly transfer own funds to the subsidiary where necessary, up to the limit of the group support declaration.     

Hedge fund performance attribution under various market conditions

We investigate US hedge funds' performance. Our proposed model contains exogenous and endogenous break points, based on business cycles and on a regime switching process conditional on different states of the market. During difficult market conditions most hedge fund strategies do not provide significant alphas. At such times hedge funds reduce both the number of their exposures to different asset classes and their portfolio allocations, while some strategies even reverse their exposures. Directional strategies share more common exposures under all market conditions compared to non-directional strategies. Factors related to commodity asset classes are more common during these difficult conditions whereas factors related to equity asset classes are most common during good market conditions. Falling stock markets are harsher than recessions for hedge funds.     

Should investors invest in hedge fund-like mutual funds? Evidence from the 2007 financial crisis

This study empirically examines the value added for investors during the 2007–2009 financial crisis from hedge fund-like equity mutual funds, including 130/30, market neutral, and long/short equity funds. We find that based on the information ratio, all market neutral funds, top 90% of long/short funds, and top 25% of 130/30 funds outperform a long-only passive index fund over the crisis period. However, we find little evidence of abnormal performance by the average and median funds in our sample, based on either unconditional or conditional four-factor alphas. The reason for the overall under-performance in the crisis period is that while short positions taken by these funds do generate alpha, the gain from their short positions is not sufficiently large to offset the loss from their long positions. Finally, the abnormal performance of short positions is found to be attributable to managers’ characteristic-adjusted and industry-adjusted stock selection skills. One implication of this study is that even though market neutral and long/short funds on average may not generate alpha, investors can benefit from holding these funds, especially the former, that can provide a hedge against down markets due to their low betas and that can be useful for asset allocation.     

Mystery Shopping in der Gesetzlichen Krankenversicherung – Einsatz von Testkäufern zur Qualitätssicherung

Because of raising costs, modified legal regulations and a changed self-perception of many insurants, compulsory health insurance funds have to cope with an intensified competition on their market. Management instruments like Mystery Shopping, as a method for a hidden inspection of ex ante defined quality standards, enter the health care system. This study's aim is to assess the utilisability of this instrument for compulsory health insurance funds.Basing on a literature analysis and the conducted Mystery Shopping-study in cooperation with a German company health insurance fund, it is assessed, that there are already existing successful approaches of using Mystery Shopping in health insurances and further health care sector. Like in the present study, previous existing applications occur primarily in the evaluation of advisory services (primary in those by telephone). Via Mystery Shopping it is possible to identify relevant factors influencing customer's contentment as well as fund's strengths and weaknesses in an objective and detailed manner. Together with conventional customer satisfaction analyses, potential need for action can be revealed. Besides the evaluation of solely service aspects, prospective applications in the further health care system are introduced.     

Diversification in the hedge fund industry

We provide evidence of a significant relation between diversification and performance in the hedge fund industry. Measuring diversification across four distinct dimensions, we find a significant positive relation between hedge fund performance and diversification across sectors and asset classes. We show that on a risk adjusted basis, hedge funds that diversify across sectors and asset classes outperform other funds by an average of 1.1% per year. However, diversification across styles and geographies exhibits a significant negative association with hedge fund returns. Funds that diversify across styles and geographies underperform other funds by an average of 1% per year. For fund of hedge funds, we find a significant positive relation between performance and diversification across sectors. However, diversifying across asset classes and geographies is found to exhibit a negative relation with fund performance. Finally, we find that the motive to engage in diversification is consistent with managerial incentive structure in the hedge fund industry.     

The alpha and omega of fund of hedge fund added value

In spite of a somewhat disappointing performance throughout the crisis, investors are showing interest in hedge funds. Still, funds of hedge funds keep on experiencing outflows. Can this phenomenon be explained by the failure of fund of hedge fund managers to deliver on their promise to add value through active management, or is it symptomatic of a move toward greater disintermediation in the hedge fund industry? We introduce a return-based attribution model allowing for a full decomposition of fund of hedge fund performance. The results of our empirical study suggest that funds of hedge funds are funds of funds like others. Strategic allocation turns out to be a crucial step in the investment process, in that it not only adds value over the long-term, but most importantly, it brings resilience precisely when investors need it the most. Fund picking, on the other hand, turns out to be a double-edged sword.     

Changing investment styles: style creep and style gaming in the hedge fund industry

Notwithstanding their common features, hedge funds remain an extremely diverse asset class. Information on fund styles is important for numerous purposes, such as portfolio construction, performance attribution and risk management. With fund self‐declaration being prone to (strategic) misclassification, return‐based taxonomies grouping funds along similarities in realized returns provide a useful alternative. We provide a consistent classification system of homogeneous groups of hedge funds based on self‐organizing maps. Whereas some fund categories such as managed futures are largely consistent in their self‐declared strategies, others, especially so‐called ‘equity hedge’ funds, display no or very limited return similarities. Furthermore, we also find evidence of fund managers performing undisclosed changes of their trading style over time. Those funds that misclassified themselves once are particularly likely to change their trading style again. Although style self‐declaration can, therefore, be quite misleading, our results indicate that hedge funds do not misdeclare their style strategically to improve their relative performance. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fund selection,style allocation,and active management abilities: Evidence from funds of hedge funds’ holdings

This study examines whether funds of hedge funds (FOHFs) provide superior before-fee performance through managers’ fund selection, style allocation, and active management abilities. Using reported holdings of Securities and Exchange Commission–registered FOHFs, we find that FOHF managers have fund selection abilities, as hedge funds held by FOHFs outperform their style indices and over half of the individual hedge funds in the Lipper Trading Advisor Selection System (TASS) database. We also find that FOHF managers add value through active management of FOHFs’ holdings, while evidence on their style allocation abilities is mixed. Our findings suggest that FOHFs generate superior before-fee performance and that FOHF managers’ skillset is broader than previously documented. Thus, our study helps explain why FOHFs continue to survive and suggests that FOHF fee structure reform merits consideration.     

Do hedge funds dynamically manage systematic risk?

Defining systematic risk management (SRM) skill as persistently low fund systematic risk, we find evidence of time varying allocation of hedge fund management effort across the business cycle. In weak market states, skilled managers focus on minimization of systematic risk via dynamic reallocations across asset classes at the cost of fund alpha and foregoing market timing opportunities. As markets strengthen, attention shifts to asset selection within consistent asset classes. The superior performance of low systematic risk funds previously documented arises due to the superior asset selection ability of managers in strong market states. Incremental allocations by investors arise due to this superior performance and not due to recognition of SRM skill.     

The financial crisis and hedge fund returns

The financial crisis has focused the lens of politicians and regulators on hedge funds as a source of systemic and operational risk in asset markets. We examine the extent to which available data can provide useful information regarding the impact of hedge funds on the financial system. Using data from January 1994 through September 2008, we find dramatic changes in the exposures of hedge funds to risk factors, accompanied by a significant and widespread increase in correlation between hedge fund and factor returns. Lastly, the discontinuity at zero in the cross-sectional distribution of hedge fund returns persists throughout the sample.     

Should Asset Managers Hedge Their “Fees at Risk”?

Although the recent financial crisis afflicted all asset managers, the problem of general market exposure was in some respects worse for the long-only funds that rely almost completely on asset-based fees than for the “absolute return” and other kinds of hedge funds that also receive performance-based fees. While the revenue generated by performance-based fees is expected to be volatile, asset-based fees tend to be viewed as an “annuity” stream that involves little or no earnings risk. But, especially in the case of long-only funds, large shortfalls in asset fees were caused by the combination of significant redemptions and sharp reductions in assets under management that accompanied the plunge in asset prices. In this article, the author attempts to quantify the expected effect of market fluctuations on the asset fees and profitability of long-only asset managers. Having done so, he then argues that traditional long-only asset managers—managers whose only reason for being is their ability to generate above-market returns (or “alpha”) on a fairly consistent basis—routinely retain too much beta risk in their primarily asset-based fee structures. The author offers two main reasons for long-only asset managers to hedge beta risk: (1) it would reduce the need for fund management firms to hold liquid capital to ensure solvency and fund important projects during market downturns; (2) it would provide the firm's current and prospective clients with a clearer signal of whether its managers are succeeding in the firm's mission of generating alpha, as well as the possibility of more equity-like and cost-effective incentive compensation systems for those managers.     

Hedge fund return predictability; To combine forecasts or combine information?

While the majority of the predictability literature has been devoted to the predictability of traditional asset classes, the literature on the predictability of hedge fund returns is quite scanty. We focus on assessing the out-of-sample predictability of hedge fund strategies by employing an extensive list of predictors. Aiming at reducing uncertainty risk associated with a single predictor model, we first engage into combining the individual forecasts. We consider various combining methods ranging from simple averaging schemes to more sophisticated ones, such as discounting forecast errors, cluster combining and principal components combining. Our second approach combines information of the predictors and applies kitchen sink, bootstrap aggregating (bagging), lasso, ridge and elastic net specifications. Our statistical and economic evaluation findings point to the superiority of simple combination methods. We also provide evidence on the use of hedge fund return forecasts for hedge fund risk measurement and portfolio allocation. Dynamically constructing portfolios based on the combination forecasts of hedge funds returns leads to considerably improved portfolio performance.     

资产配置策略与基金系QDII收益分析

本文从前十大重仓股占比、股票集中度、行业集中度、投资区域集中度、夏普指数等指标研究基金系QDII资产配置策略与其收益的关系。统计数据结果表明,过于集中的资产配置对QDII基金收益产生了负效应。同时,QDII基金在成立时机选择、资产配置和外汇投资战略上都欠妥当。由此可见,对于QDII产品而言,资产组合的构建需要符合分散国内系统性风险的原则,否则不会使QDII这种外汇投资基金具有特殊的优势。