中国海洋石油和天然气产业发展战略研究

随着中国经济的快速发展,能源的需求量持续增加,能源问题变得越来越严重。我国海岸带和浅海大陆架蕴藏着丰富的石油和天然气资源,海洋石油和天然气是中国未来能源的希望。通过对海洋石油和天然气产业发展条件、产品市场需求进行分析,并对海洋石油和天然气产业的现状与问题进行分析,进而对海洋石油和天然气产业进行总体发展战略探讨,提出中国发展海洋石油和天然气的具体对策和措施。     

Farmland prices, structural breaks and panel data

Previous time series evidence has indicated that farmland pricesand cash rents are not cointegrated, a finding at odds withthe present value model of farmland prices. We argue that thisfailure to find cointegration may be due to low power of testsand to the presence of structural change representing a shiftingrisk premium on farmland investments. To accommodate this possibility,we use panel unit root and cointegration methods that are morepowerful than conventional time series methods and allow forbreaks in the cointegration relationship. Our results, basedon a large panel covering 31 US states between 1960 and 2000,suggest that the present value model of farmland prices cannotbe rejected.     

Co‐movements in commodity prices: a note based on network analysis

This article analyses co‐movements in a wide group of commodity prices during the time period 1992–2010. Our methodological approach is based on the correlation matrix and the networks inside. Through this approach we are able to summarize global interaction and interdependence, capturing the existing heterogeneity in the degrees of synchronization between commodity prices. Our results produce two main findings: (a) we do not observe a persistent increase in the degree of co‐movement of the commodity prices in our time sample, however from mid‐2008 to the end of 2009 co‐movements almost doubled when compared with the average correlation; (b) we observe three groups of commodities which have exhibited similar price dynamics (metals, oil and grains, and oilseeds) and which have increased their degree of co‐movement during the sampled period.     

Competitive Storage,Biofuels and the Corn Price

The use of corn as an ethanol feedstock has been stimulated by US biofuels policy. This has changed both the position and the slope of the corn demand curve and increased the pass-through from crude oil to corn prices. The principal constraints on ethanol consumption and production have been regulation (the biofuels mandate), capacity constraints in ethanol refining and the blend wall, which puts a ceiling on the ethanol content of gasoline. The incidence of these constraints has varied over time. We model these impacts within the competitive storage model using structural break regression analysis. Our analysis shows that the pass-through has varied over time in relation to the share of ethanol in total US corn use. Our analysis provides robust empirical evidence of an increase in the pass-through from crude oil to corn prices over the period from the start of the century to a high level over 2004–2008 when corn use in ethanol was growing very fast. This enhanced sensitivity was driven by competition for corn as an ethanol feedstock with stock demand exerting strong upward pressure on the corn price.     

An overview of hydrogen prospects: Economic,technical and policy considerations

Hydrogen is expected to play a role in the future low-carbon economy as an energy carrier, but its market penetration remains to be seen. Much of the existing literature generally focuses on comparison of marginal production costs and prices to make rather optimistic projections. This study argues that such analysis is myopic as important barriers are ignored. Following Porter’s five-force approach, we methodologically identify the economic market forces that shape the development of hydrogen markets, and discuss key obstacles in the supply chain. Using evidence of available hydrogen technologies and costs, the distribution network is identified as a major fixed-investment barrier to market entry, but it is argued that much of it could be overcome if natural gas infrastructure and technology is shared with the hydrogen sector. Natural gas, in turn, is projected to function as a transition fuel under current carbon emissions targets. This study finds that policy costs needed to promote hydrogen to achieve environmental goals can be substantially reduced if government and private investment decisions strategically focus on synergies with natural gas. The possible formulation of such policies is discussed using Australia’s hydrogen industry as a case study.     

The linkage between the U.S. ethanol market and developing countries’ maize prices: a panel SVAR analysis

The major expansion of U.S. ethanol production raises concerns about the potential detrimental impacts on developing countries’ agricultural prices, farm income, and food security. To assess the sensitivity of maize prices to ethanol production, this study explores the linkage between the U.S. ethanol market and developing countries’ maize prices. The econometric approach, based on a panel structural vector autoregression model, captures market interdependencies and the likelihood that developing countries’ responses are both heterogeneous and dynamic. The results indicate that the U.S. ethanol market's impacts on maize prices in developing countries are heterogeneous and that coastal countries are more susceptible to U.S. economic shocks. The estimates also suggest that countries more dependent on food imports and/or receiving U.S. food aid are at a higher risk of being affected by such shocks. Overall, the results indicate that those countries with the greatest sensitivity and exposure to global agricultural commodity markets could benefit from domestic policies and international assistance, which reduce their exposure to impacts from the U.S. maize market.     

This land is your land,maybe: A historical institutionalist analysis for contextualizing split estate conflicts in U.S. unconventional oil and gas development

In the 21st century, the U.S. has experienced a boom in unconventional oil and gas development (UOGD). In part due to advances in technology, this rapid increase in UOGD has moved extraction practices into geographic areas that have previously seen little or no oil and gas development. As a result, conflicts over property rights have erupted—particularly in relation to split estate situations. To understand this controversy, we must situate it in the conditions which have shaped land use and mineral rights. We argue that past federal and state level governance decisions have created the conditions for UOGD conflicts today. Here, we utilize historical institutionalism (HI) to review the historical actors, processes, and institutions that have shaped how mineral rights have developed in the context of split estates in the U.S. We suggest that tracing this legislative and judicial history through HI is an essential foundation for exploring issues related to UOGD. Most importantly, we highlight these processes of governance as a bedrock for understanding spatial inequality inherent in current split estate law that grants the mineral estate dominance over the surface estate. We suggest that this codification of spatial inequality is problematic both in and beyond the context of split estates in UOGD.     

Agricultural input subsidies,extension services,and farm labour productivity nexus: Evidence from maize farmers in Tanzania

This paper examines the effect of agricultural input subsidies (AIS) and agricultural extension services (AES) on farm labour productivity in plots planted with maize in Tanzania, using panel data from the National Panel Survey in Tanzania. To control for the endogeneity of the two programmes, a control function and instrumental variable approach is used to estimate the effects of AIS and AES on farm labour productivity. The results show that AIS and AES are significant in raising labour productivity in maize-planted plots. Similarly, AIS and AES are also effective in increasing land productivity in these plots. Moreover, each programme has comparable effects on land productivity and farm labour productivity. These findings imply that public investments in AIS and AES are effective in raising farm productivity.     

The impact of mining and smelting activities on property values: a study of Mount Isa city,Queensland, Australia

Much publicity has been given to the problem of high levels of environmental contaminants, most notably high blood lead concentration levels among children in the city of Mount Isa because of mining and smelting activities. The health impacts from mining‐related pollutants are now well documented. This includes published research being discussed in an editorial of the Medical Journal of Australia (see Munksgaard et al. 2010 ). On the other hand, negative impacts on property prices, although mentioned, have not been examined to date. This study rectifies this research gap. This study uses a hedonic property price approach to examine the impact of mining‐ and smelting‐related pollution on nearby property prices. The hypothesis is that those properties closer to the lead and copper smelters have lower property (house) prices than those farther away. The results of the study show that the marginal willingness to pay to be farther from the pollution source is AUS $13 947 per kilometre within the 4 km radius selected. The study has several policy implications, which are discussed briefly. We used ordinary least squares, geographically weighted regression, spatial error and spatial autoregressive or spatial lag models for this analysis.     

Trade-offs between high class land and development: Recent and future pressures on Auckland's valuable soil resources

Sustainable land management is essential to meeting the global challenge of securing soil and water resources that can support an ever increasing population. In Auckland, New Zealand's largest city, population growth is forecast to increase from 1.5 to 2.5 million by 2040 which will put immense pressure on the region's soil resources. The objective of this study was to robustly quantify the amount of high class land (Land Use Capability Classes 1–3) that has been converted, and what is likely to occur, to urban development in Auckland using both long term trend records and future growth projections.Spatial analysis indicated that over the various spanning datasets 10,399 ha (or 8.3%) of Auckland's high class land has been converted to urban development through incremental urban extension, operative/approved greenfields and building consents. Of this, 10,080 ha of high class land was converted to development between the years, 1975 and 2012. The rate of urban extension onto high class land has accelerated since 1996. Furthermore, the majority of land allocated to urban extension since 1996 has been high class land. Looking into the near future, lodged/future greenfield developments equate to an additional potential development of 6010 ha (or 4.8%) of current high class land. Future growth pressures indicate that this trade-off will continue.There is a real need to analyse the economic benefits and long term sustainability of future development against the protection of high class land for current and future production requirements. Further research should account for the true cost of lost provisioning, regulating and cultural soil ecosystem services to ensure that these values are recognised and considered not only by urban planners but also by both policy and decision makers.     

Climate risk,vulnerability and resilience: Supporting livelihood of smallholders in semiarid India

Using panel data from 256 smallholder households from 2006 to 2014 in three semiarid regions India, this study develops a framework for quantifying vulnerability and resilience by accounting for a smallholder household’s ability to adapt and respond to climatic risk. Findings indicate that although smallholders with smaller landholdings are more vulnerable to climatic risk (drought, in our case), they are also more resilient than their counterparts. Results reveal that cropping intensity and crop risk increase the vulnerability of smallholders to climatic risk, but large farms are less vulnerable. Diversification in on-farm enterprises, like livestock units, and off-farm income sources, play significant roles in increasing smallholder households’ resilience to climatic risk. Other drivers of resiliency include the choice of cash and risky crops, borrowing capacity, liquid investments, and the ability to regain yields.     

农地依赖性、农地处置方式与市民化意愿的内在关系研究——基于川鄂苏黑四省调研数据

研究目的:深入挖掘农地依赖性、农地处置方式与农村转移劳动力市民化意愿之间的内在关系,以期为农村转移劳动力自由选择市民化提供理论支持。研究方法:结构方程模型。研究结果:农地资源禀赋、农地功能认知、农地产权安全性、农地产权认知及农地流转服务均通过影响农地处置方式间接对农村转移劳动力市民化的决策产生影响,其中农地产权安全性还会直接影响农村转移劳动力市民化的决策;农村转移劳动力市民化过程中更倾向于以农地转出方式处置农地,农地产权认知是影响农村转移劳动力市民化意愿的最重要因素。研究结论:为缓解农地对农村转移劳动力市民化的束缚,政府须加速推进农地"三权分置"政策实施,健全农地流转市场及其配套制度体系,构建有效的农地退出机制并设置农户农地退出门槛。     

亚热带西部山地平原交错带全域旅游发展研究——以四川省洪雅县为例

全域旅游是旅游资源富集、不适宜大规模工业化地区的一种发展新方式。全域旅游需要区域内部有高密度的多样景观,协调统一的区域主题以及适中的区域尺度。四川盆地西南边缘的洪雅县利用优越的区域内在条件,将生态农业、田园风光与乡村旅游相融,将森工、水能开发、食品加工与旅游联动,将道教文化与养生旅游、本土文化与民俗旅游相结合,将环境保护和生态养生旅游相统一,形成一系列以旅游为核心的产业关联雏形。依托域外大景区整体提升县域旅游形象,实行点、轴、面串联推进景观的全域统筹,突出绿色主题的差异化发展,促进旅游全域协同发展,并探索出全域旅游的产业关联与地域统筹协作模式。实践表明:这类区域全域旅游可以采用因地制宜的政府主导、资源综合利用的产业关联、差异化发展的地域协同、地域文化挖掘与人文景观营造的特色提升等策略。针对该县全域旅游发展存在的问题,今后应采取更新观念与强化政府主导,以产业链间的横向关联推动产业聚变,以分层次/类别统筹开发促进全域协同,坚持生态优先和强化环境保护等对策。     

Bridging the Gap between Millennial Consumers,Social Media,and Agricultural Branding Programs: A Qualitative Assessment

With a growing trend for geographical branding efforts within the United States, particularly for individual states, the need to better understand how consumer groups respond to these efforts becomes prevalent, particularly for agricultural brands. The current study analyzes Millennial consumer response to agricultural branding programs within the United States and the effects of social media on this process. Using the Generational Cohort Theory (GCT) and Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs (HoN) as key foundations, a qualitative assessment was completed on Millennial consumers across various university campuses within one U.S. state. Results revealed that five key themes emerged relating to locally produced foods (definition, users, access, experiences and marketing/branding) while four themes emerged from the discussions on social media (applications, activity, advertising and information flow/communication). From these themes, a new conceptual ‘hierarchy’ is proposed that can be used to explain how Millennial consumers can become better connected with agricultural programs and branding messages moving forward. Implications and future research directions are provided.     

多元规一法在页岩油气勘查评价中的应用——以辽河西部凹陷沙三中亚段为例

利用辽河西部凹陷沙河街组三段中亚段分析实验测试数据和层次分析法,通过对多元页岩油气地质数据进行无量纲化和规则化处理,发现可以将其整合为具有"综合有利因子"意义的无量纲特征值,从而实现对研究区页岩油气勘探有利程度的定量化评价,同时发现对于西部凹陷沙河街组三段中亚段而言,存在中部和南部两个相对有利程度更高有利于页岩油气勘探评价井实施的区域。该方法具有较强的工具意义,可以简明清晰地凸显页岩油气多元地质信息,为页岩油气地质数据分析提供了一种有效的方法和技术思路。     

An assessment of the policies and practices of selective logging and timber utilisation: A case study from natural forests of Tarai Nepal and Queensland Australia

Selective logging (SL) contributes nearly 15 percent of the global timber needs. Considering its role in sustainable timber production, biodiversity conservation and forest carbon enhancement, assessment of SL policies and practices is crucial. This paper assesses the policies and practices of SL in natural production forests of the Tarai region of Nepal and Queensland Australia to explore the key differences in such policies and practices and their possible implications in achieving sustainable forest management objectives. The primary methods applied in the study were review and synthesis of key policy documents and qualitative analysis of the information gathered from key informant interviews and stakeholders’ workshop. Altogether, 53 respondents from a wide range of stakeholder groups (government organizations-15, non-government organizations/networks-15, private sector including the individual landowners-13, local political leaders-3 and independent forest experts/scientists-7) were consulted. Findings suggest that: (1) frequent and inconsistent changes in policy provisions, lengthy administrative procedures and heavy engagement of state forest agencies in forest product harvesting and sales processes play key roles in sub-optimal forest production in Nepal, whereas lower dependency on forest-products, higher labour costs, lack of species-wise royalty rate and flexibility in selecting optional logs are the key factors for increased wastages of forest products in Queensland; (2) recovery and utilisation of the harvested forest product is better in Nepal but policy and practical considerations on biodiversity and environment are better in Queensland; and (3) Forest harvesting specific codes of practice, occupational health and safety standards, and their compliance mechanism of Queensland could be beneficial for Nepal to minimise operational harvesting risks and to attract professional harvesters that support promoting sustainable use and management of natural forests, as we found this aspect almost neglected in Nepal.     

The Demand for Organic and Conventional Produce in London,UK: A System Approach

The majority of studies on consumer demand for organic products neglect the presence of non‐organic competitors, ignoring their effect on consumer demand for organics. This article uses a demand system which includes both organic and non‐organic fruits and vegetables, with actual (as opposed to stated) data for household purchases. Estimation of our model provides empirical evidence on the interrelationships between organic and non‐organic products, as the relevant cross‐price elasticities. Own‐price elasticities indicate that organic fruits and vegetables are more price elastic than their non‐organic counterparts, and that lower social class households with children have the most own‐price elastic demand. Cross‐price elasticities indicate relatively strong loyalty to organic products.     

乡村森林旅游项目升级发展过程政商博弈探微——基于Z风景区3A创4A的案例分析

以Z风景区3A创4A愿景中当地政府与风景区经营商两个主体的决策行为为研究对象,以制度经济学为理论基础,采用博弈论模型进行分析。结果表明:在政府和经营商目标不一致的前提下,从政府来说,在政绩驱动下急于达到创4A目标,但政府又不能滥用纳税人的钱追加投资,其意愿是让商家继续投资,为创4A发力;从商家来说,虽然创4A有利于项目营利空间,但是客观上有规避未来市场不确定性和投资回报周期长双重风险的意识,还可能由于政府对项目创4A的急切性,导致商家存在"政府有可能追加投资,自己"搭便车"的"等靠要"机会主义思想,追加投资意愿不高;反过来也可能存在政府等待商家投资的搭便车行为。为此,提出以政商共同利益最大化为目标,通过改变激励措施,使政商博弈达到合作状态下较优的均衡结果。