Spillover effects of the development constraints in London Heathrow Airport

In this article we assess the growth impact of London Heathrow’s development constraints on other airports in the UK. To test the relationship we use a two-stage methodology yielding an estimate of a congestion spillover effect. Our data are passenger traffic from 1990 to 2012 containing both intercontinental and European air traffic. For intercontinental air traffic, our results show high congestion spillover effect between Heathrow and Gatwick airports, and significant but lesser effect to Stansted airport. We also find significant congestion spillover effects from Heathrow to the spatially more distant Manchester and Birmingham airports, showing the extensive spatial impact of Heathrow’s development constraints. For European air traffic, controlling for low-cost air carrier growth, only two airports show significant congestion spillover effects: Gatwick and London City Airports. Illustrating that low-cost carriers do not operate from Heathrow, so its limitations cannot affect the predominant low-cost air traffic in other airports. The novel methodology we present in this paper can be applied to congestion research in general to assess regional and modal spills within networks.     

Analysing and modelling some effects of solutions for matching the airport runway system capacity to demand

The paper deals with analysing and modelling some effects of three solutions for matching the airport runway system (landing) capacity to corresponding demand. These are: i) charging congestion applied to the NY LaGuardia airport (New York, USA); ii) deployment of the innovative operational procedures supported by the new technologies developing in the scope of European SESAR (Single European Sky ATM Research) and U.S. NextGen (Next Generation) program applied to the system of two closely-spaced parallel runways at Dubai International airport (Dubai, UAE (United Arab Emirates)); and iii) building the new additional runway(s) applied to the runway system of three London airports - Heathrow, Gatwick, and Stansted (London, UK).The results have shown that each of the considered solutions can contribute to more efficient and effective matching of the airport runway (landing) capacity to the current and expected (prospectively growing) airside demand under given (specified) conditions.     

A Monte-Carlo approach to estimating the effects of selected airport capacity options in London

The issue of future airport capacity in London is currently the subject of much political debate in the UK. Although realistic estimates of the effects of capacity enhancement may be desirable, such estimates are difficult. Through the use of Monte Carlo simulation, this paper quantifies and compares the relative capacity enhancements that may be afforded by the construction of a new hub airport in the Thames Estuary, additional runways at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted and changes to operating practices at Heathrow. The simulations show that a new hub airport would be the most effective way to increase capacity, although the reported financial and environmental costs of such a development indicate a comparatively poor rate of return. Proposed new runways at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted and the removal of runway alternation at Heathrow provide more modest increases in capacity.     

The potential impacts of the EU/US Open Sky Agreement: What will happen at Heathrow after spring 2008

The paper examines the impact of removing the restrictions remaining in EU/US bilateral air service agreements, the major one relating to the air services between the US and the UK. These are dismantled under Stage I of the EU/US Open Skies agreement, which will automatically fall unless progress is made on the Stage II issues, especially reform of the US ownership and control rules. Previous evaluations of the likely impact of lifting these restrictions are reviewed, especially in relation to passengers and fares between the US and London. Such evaluations look optimistic given preliminary plans for the first summer season. Reasons why airlines prefer Heathrow to Gatwick are discussed before comparing US/London air service capacity for June 2008 with the previous June, with indications for a 5% increase in overall seat capacity and an 8% increase in flights. A net increase of seven daily flights is planned from Heathrow and Gatwick, not far in excess of normal market growth and no new non-stop routes will be introduced that had not already been operated from either UK airport. These changes are analysed in terms of US and UK airline responses, taking into account slot availability and cost. The seat capacity share of US carriers from both Heathrow and Gatwick advances by just over 2 percentage points to 40%.     

An empirical analysis of airport capacity expansion

Theoretical analyses of the impact of airport capacity expansion must model or make assumptions about the effect of capacity on demand, airline competition, aircraft types, fares and other characteristics of a given airport. In this paper, we use empirical data on historical schedules, fares, delays and demand for the busiest 150 airports in 2015 to examine the typical impact of historical capacity expansions. We find significant diversity in outcomes, with over half the expanded airports either using less than their pre-expansion capacity or remaining constrained even at post-expansion capacity by 2016. Many of the expected impacts, such as reductions in typical aircraft size, either do not materialise or are dominated by other effects (for example, recessions; airlines beginning or ending operations at an airport; changes in regulation). Behaviour on expansion is affected by slot control regulations and whether the airport is initially capacity-constrained. In particular, slot-controlled airports typically add new destinations and carriers on expansion rather than making significant changes to existing schedules.     

A tentative analysis of the impacts of an airport closure

This paper identifies the vulnerabilities of operations at Heathrow airport to a short airport closure. The system disruptions assessed are delays, flight rerouting or diversions to alternate airports, and flight cancellations. In addition, the impact on fuel consumption, and hence CO₂ emissions, is quantified using the Reorganized Air Traffic Control Mathematical Simulator Plus simulation model and the Advanced Emission Model tool. The results have implications for assessing how increased severe weather events associated with climate change may disrupt airport operations.     

The economic benefits and environmental costs of airport operations: Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport

This paper compares the economic gains from airports with some of the environmental costs of their operations. The economic effects are divided into direct, indirect, and induced impacts, and the direct impact into employment and income generated by the operation of an airport; while the indirect and induced impacts are the income generated in the supply chain. We focus on evaluating employment benefits and the social costs of both aircraft noise and engine emissions, using Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport as a case study. The results indicate that the economic benefits generated from the operations of the airport outweigh the negative side effects.     

Size versus efficiency: a case study of US commercial airports

The paper presents a productivity analysis using data envelopment analysis (DEA) of 45 US commercial airports selected from the top 15 large, medium, and small hub airports. Financial and operational data, such as aircraft movements, number of airport gates, the annual number of enplaned passengers and runway capacity, is used. Initially, a DEA is deployed to analyze the efficiency and performance measures of airports within each group by comparing and cross-referencing them with each other. We then extend our analysis to identify those airports that are not efficient and are thus dominated by other airports that are more efficient.     

An exploratory examination of additional ground access trips generated by airport ‘meeter-greeters’

A significant share of airport passengers are accompanied to and/or from the airport by friends and relatives to wave them off or greet them when they land. At some airports the number of these ‘meeter-greeters’ can be substantial, which can have important ground access planning, economic and environmental implications for the airport operator. Yet this group have received comparatively little attention in either the academic or industry literature. Consequently, to some extent ‘meeter-greeters’ have remained something of a ‘hidden’ element of ground access user. In an attempt to address this, the paper uses secondary data analysis of the UK CAA Passenger Survey Report to explore ‘meeter-greeters’ at five UK airports; Heathrow, Gatwick, Manchester, Stansted and Luton. Focus is given to assessing the scale of ‘meeter-greeter’ journeys and the role of a passenger's trip purpose (business/leisure) and resident status (resident/non-resident) in this process. A key finding from the analysis relates to the disproportionate impact of multi-person trips, where a number of different ‘meeter-greeters’ accompany a passenger to the airport. The implications of these findings are discussed and a number of recommendations for decision makers proposed. Namely, it is suggested that airport monitoring and assessment procedures should incorporate a measure of the additional trip generation by ‘meeter-greeters’ in order to present a more complete picture of the number of people accessing/egressing an airport.     

The role of London airports in providing connectivity for the UK: regional dependence on foreign hubs

In a context of ongoing debate about the future UK aviation policy and its implications for regional economic development, this paper discusses the role of London Heathrow and the South East airports in providing connectivity for the UK, with particular focus on the international markets that originate from regional UK airports. Using an MIDT dataset of worldwide passenger itineraries served by the European airport network during May 2013, we first establish whether London Heathrow can currently be considered the most important hub for the UK, in terms of traffic generation, connectivity, and centrality, while also measuring the dependence of UK regions on foreign airports and airlines to remain connected with the rest of the world. Results show that, despite the competition, London Heathrow benefits from its massive traffic generation to remain the most central gateway for overall UK air transport markets. However, when only regional markets are considered, significant dependence on foreign hubs appears in many destinations, particularly to Asia–Pacific or the BRIC countries where above 80% of passengers use transfer flights. These results fit nicely with the observed trends of seat de-concentration and hub-bypassing in the airline industry. While dependence on foreign hubs can be interpreted as a sign of vulnerability, there is also the argument that bypassing Heathrow allows regional airports to develop new markets and reduce the level of congestion in the London airport system.     

RISK assessment in airport maintenance runway condition using MCDA-C

This paper proposed the initial development of a multicriteria methodology for a runway maintenance monitoring using risk perception at airports with the MCDA-C methodology. To support morphological structuring and semantic judgments eight specialists in airport maintenance and operations were interviewed and the model was built based in their perceptions and deep technical knowledge on the subject. We found that the 7 most representative criteria were able to deal with approximately 80% of the perceived risk by the experts, indicating that a considerable part of the resources of the Brazilian airport infrastructure operations could be being redirected towards a more rational application. Finally, we applied the method in a real scenario situation by analyzing real data from the 29 the busiest Brazilian airports. Data showed objectively that 18 airports presented scores that clearly indicated being in a favorable (safer) or unfavorable (risky) condition regarding the criteria analyzed, guiding where the state can spend the resources with the best benefit.     

Efficiency drivers of international airports: A worldwide benchmarking study

The main purpose of these work was to identify operational efficiency drivers of international airports. In order to achieve this, a two-step quantitative-qualitative research approach was conducted. In the first step, a two-stage DEA model was used, and it was possible to identify, within a sample of the 60 biggest airports from the six Airport Council International (ACI) regions, the most efficient airports of the world: Beijing International Airport, Heathrow International Airport, Dubai International Airport, and Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport. In the second step of the research, four airports were selected in order to search for the efficiency drivers. In this context, Heathrow International Airport was considered to be a benchmark and presented most of the identified efficiency drivers (27 of 31). Standing out were Just-in-Time (JIT) and Total Quality Management (TQM) principles and also Passenger boarding optimization, besides the presence of almost all of the most relevant efficiency drivers, according to airport managers.     

A systematic approach to assess the effectiveness of airport noise mitigation strategies

Regional airports are often located very close to the urban area they serve and the increasing traffic rate that many of them have experienced in the last years has produced several impacts on the communities living close to the airport area, mainly aviation noise. If not properly managed, noise impacts produced by airport operations can cut down significantly the development of airport air traffic with direct effects on the economic and territorial systems. Aeronautical noise has greatly reduced in the last decade, due to aircraft design technological improvements and more severe regulations. However, the noise reduction during a single event does not make the issue of the airport location – and then the whole noise impact – less significant. This paper proposes an assessment process to evaluate the effects of actions adopted to reduce airport noise impacts on populated areas. Both airport-related factors – such as number of take-off; day-evening-night distributions of movements; aircraft type; flying paths – and land-use characteristics have been considered and combined in a density index that synthesizes the impacts of airport noise on the territory. The assessment process has been tested on a real case, the airport of Bologna in Northern Italy. The predicted results, compared with available real data for the test case, are significant and encourage the use of the proposed assessment process as decision support system for the airport management.     

Statistical modelling of runway incursion occurences in the United States

Runway incursions are an important aviation safety concern; between 2002 and 2015 there were 16,785 runway incursions at United States airports ranging in size from small general aviation (GA) to large commercial airline hubs. When examining airports with the 50 highest incursion count over the past 5 years, the predominant categories were large hubs, which accounted for 21 airports and general aviation (GA) airports which accounted for 16 airports. In June 2015, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) announced the Runway Incursion Mitigation (RIM) program to identify airport risk factors that might contribute to a runway incursion and develop strategies to help airport stakeholders mitigate those risks. Different size airports serve different aircraft fleets, serve different operating volumes, and have different resources available (both funds and technologies) for incursion mitigation. Therefore, it is valuable to determine the correlating factors that affect incursions at different size airports. This paper uses econometrics based modelling techniques to identify statistically significant factors in data provided by the (FAA) public web sites on runway incursions. The model identified statistically significant variables that correlate with incursions, based on severity, for airports categories defined by the National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems (NPIAS).The model results indicate that operational incidents (OI) are more likely at large hub airports. In contrast, at GA/non-hub airports, pilot deviations (PD) were significant for less severe incursions (severity C and D). Only one variable, “number of years since 2002”, was found to be significant for all the three airport categories; this variable was correlated with severity A incursions and indicated a statistically significant reduction in severity A incursions, despite an overall 80% increase in incursions between 2002 and 2015.     

Regional aviation and economic growth: cointegration and causality analysis in Australia

Air transport is a critical link to regional, rural and remote communities in Australia. Air services provide important economic and social benefits but very little research has been done on assessing the value of regional aviation. This research provides the first empirical evidence that there is short and long run causality between regional aviation and economic growth. The authors analysed 88 regional airports in Australia over a period of 1985–86 to 2010–11 to determine the catalytic impacts of regional air transport on regional economic growth. The analysis was conducted using annual data related to total airport passenger movements – for the level of airport activity, and real aggregate taxable income – to represent economic growth. A significant bi-directional relationship was established: airports have an impact on regional economic growth and the economy directly impacts regional air transport. The economic significance of regional air transport confirms the importance of the airport as infrastructure for regional councils and the need for them to maintain and develop local airports. Funding should be targeted at airports directly to support regional development.     

Cost-benefit analysis of electric taxi systems for aircraft

This research presents a detailed analysis of both the positive and negative aspects related to electric taxiing for aircraft. We focus on the economic impacts of using an electric taxiing system and evaluate possible savings and costs. We also identify several threats connected with the introduction of these systems to aircraft operations. In the last part of the research, we predict future developments and potential impacts on air operators and airports.     

A welfare analysis of subsidies for airports

The welfare of residents and profitability of business in many medium-sized MSAs would be improved if their airports had a higher level of service, for example reflected by more frequent flights serving more destinations. The level of service at such airports may rise with the number of enplanements, making total enplanements and the level of service subject to a positive feedback effect. Using a new annual data set put together by combining five sources for the years 2002 through 2012, we find evidence for such a positive feedback effect. We argue that subsidies at smaller airports may be welfare-enhancing in the presence of such an effect.     

Drivers of long haul flight supply at secondary airports in Europe

Intercontinental air traffic is unevenly distributed between secondary European airports. While a few airports offer a remarkable number of long haul services, most non-hubs struggle to attract such flights. We discuss and test factors influencing secondary airport choice of long haul carriers. Results indicate that the economic power of the airport region has a significantly positive influence on long haul flight supply, while a sufficient runway length is only a condition sine qua non. Consequently, long runways at many secondary airports are underutilized and thus not economically viable.     

The impact of airport capacity constraints on future growth in the US air transportation system

This paper simulates airline strategic decision making and its impact on passenger demand, flight delays and aircraft emissions. Passenger flows, aircraft operations, flight delays and aircraft emissions are simulated for 22 airports in the US, under three airport capacity scenarios. The simulation results indicate that most system-wide implications for operations and environmental impact seem to be manageable, but local impacts at congested hub airports may be significant. The response of the air transportation system to avoid airports with high delays could significantly impact passenger demand and air traffic for these and directly dependent airports. The simulations also suggest that frequency competition effects could maintain flight frequencies at high levels, preventing a significant shift toward larger aircraft, which would otherwise reduce the impact of the capacity constraints.     

The determinants of aeronautical charges of U.S. airports: A spatial analysis

Using U.S. airport data from 2009 through 2016, this study examines the determinants of aeronautical charges of large and medium hub airports and accounts for the spatial dependence of neighboring airports in a spatial panel regression model. Our results show that U.S. airports' aeronautical charges are spatially dependent, and neighboring airport charges are positively correlated, implying that U.S. airports are in price competition with each other even though they are government-owned infrastructure. Additionally, we find evidence of airport cost recovery through non-aeronautical revenues. This may be indicative of the airport's cross-subsidizing aeronautical operations with non-aeronautical revenues. In addition, we found the airports that share revenues with airlines charge lower aeronautical fees than those that do not share revenues. We also found that more congested airports charge higher aeronautical fees.