On the Distributional Conditions for a Consumption-oriented Three Moment CAPM

In this paper, we develop sufficient conditions on probability distributions for a three moment (mean, variance, and skewness) consumption-oriented capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to price correctly a subset of assets. The assumptions that individuals in an allocationally efficient capital market have identical probability beliefs and monotone increasing strictly concave utility functions displaying nonincreasing absolute risk aversion imply an aggregate preference function that exhibits preference for expected return, aversion to variance of return, and preference for positive skewness. For otherwise arbitrary preferences, we show that quadratic characteristic lines are sufficient for a subset of assets to be priced according to a three moment consumption-oriented CAPM.     

A New Measure of Disclosure Quality: The Level of Disaggregation of Accounting Data in Annual Reports

We construct a new, parsimonious, measure of disclosure quality—disaggregation quality (DQ)—and offer validation tests. DQ captures the level of disaggregation of accounting data through a count of nonmissing Compustat line items, and reflects the extent of details in firms’ annual reports. Conceptually, DQ differs from existing disclosure measures in that it captures the “fineness” of data and is based on a comprehensive set of accounting line items in annual reports. Unlike existing measures, which are usually applicable for a subset of firms or are based on a subset of information items, DQ can be generated for the universe of Compustat industrial firms. We conduct three sets of validation tests by examining DQ's association with variables predicted by prior literature to be associated with information quality. DQ is negatively (positively) associated with analyst forecast dispersion (accuracy) and negatively associated with bid‐ask spreads and cost of equity. These associations continue to hold after we control for firm fundamentals. Taken together, results from this battery of validation tests are consistent with our measure capturing disclosure quality.     

DO INSIDERS PRACTICE WHAT THEY PREACH? INFORMED OPTION EXERCISES AROUND MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS

We examine executive stock option exercises around a sample of merger and acquisition announcements between 1996 and 2006, focusing on a subset we identify as potentially informed. For stock‐financed acquisitions, we find a surge in informed exercises by acquirer insiders in the year leading up to the acquisition announcement, but target insiders display no similar increase. We find the market reaction upon the announcement for acquirers is negatively related to extreme early exercises and find some evidence of long‐run underperformance. Overall, our evidence indicates that insiders knowingly bid for firms when they personally believe their own firm is overvalued.     

Semiparametric estimation of multinomial discrete‐choice models using a subset of choices

Nonlogit maximum‐likelihood estimators are inconsistent when using data on a subset of the choices available to agents. I show that the semiparametric, multinomial maximum‐score estimator is consistent when using data on a subset of choices. No information is required for choices outside of the subset. The required conditions about the error terms are the same conditions as for using all the choices. Estimation can proceed under additional restrictions if agents have unobserved, random consideration sets. A solution exists for instrumenting endogenous continuous variables. Monte Carlo experiments show the estimator performs well using small subsets of choices.     

Executive Stock Option Exercise and Seasoned Equity Offerings

We examine executive stock option exercises around a sample of 1,268 seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) from 1996 to 2004 focusing on a subset of exercises we identify as potentially informed. Consistent with the theory that firms issue equity when stock is overvalued, we document a surge in informed exercise in the months surrounding the SEO. From six months prior to the announcement date to six months after issuance, an average 1.76% of the total market capitalization for issuing firms is exercised and sold. Interestingly, we find a positive association between informed option exercises and long-run performance. Overall, our collective evidence indicates that insiders are not particularly good at timing exercises around SEOs.     

Questionnaire based mortality assessment: an exploratory analysis of NHANES III

The need for speed and efficiency in life insurance underwriting has never been greater. With increasing acquisition costs, the need for timeliness to complete the sales process, and the need for accurate mortality prediction a great deal of resources have been devoted to the development of non-traditional underwriting processes and criteria in hopes of streamlining the process. In this paper, we describe an exploratory analysis of mortality linked data from the US NHANES III study. Our goal for this analysis was to identify mortality predictors that would be good candidates for further investigation in insurance applicants, especially in the context of simplified issue products which focus on younger age applicants. We identified aerobic exercise, dental health, alcohol beverage type and quantity, and dietary components and patterns as factors that may hold promise as mortality predictors in persons age 17-65. Though the limitations of this analysis preclude the immediate use of these factors as underwriting criteria, it does appear that several of these hold promise, and should be tested in an insurance application context. Focus groups, market testing, or even insertion as non-actionable questions in a subset of applications may be ways to collect further data on them.     

Why are shareholders not paid to give up their voting privileges? Unique evidence from Italy

Dual-class share unifications have typically been argued to be beneficial for voting shareholders, who are usually compensated for the loss of their superior voting privileges. However, no covenants exist that make this compensation mandatory for voting shareholders. In this paper, we examine a subset of dual class share unifications from Italy where, in the main, voting shareholders are not offered any compensation in lieu of the loss of their superior voting rights. We present a simple model describing the conditions under which the controlling voting shareholder will choose not to offer compensation to minority voting shareholders as part of a share unification. Our empirical results support the model predictions.     

Scale and the Scale Effect in Market‐based Accounting Research

The nature of the data we usually encounter in market‐based accounting research is such that the results of the regressions of market capitalization on financial statement variables (referred to 'price‐levels' regressions) are driven by a relatively small subset of the very largest firms in the sample. We refer to this overwhelming influence of the largest firms as the 'scale effect'. This effect is more than heteroscedasticity. It arises due to the non‐linearity in the relation between market capitalization and the financial statement variables. We present the case that scale is market capitalization rather than a correlated omitted variable. Since scale is market capitalization, we advocate its use as a deflator in a regression estimated using weighted least squares. This regression overcomes the scale effect and the resultant regression residuals are more economically meaningful. Christie's (1987) depiction of scale is the same as ours but he advocates the use of the returns regression specification in order to avoid scale effects. We agree that returns regressions should be used unless the research question calls for a price‐levels regression.     

The Seasoned‐Equity Issues of UK Firms: Market Reaction and Issuance Method Choice

Abstract:   This study examines the seasoned equity issues of companies traded on the London Stock Exchange. Recent regulatory changes have allowed UK firms more discretion in choice of issue approach, and this has led many firms to issue through placing in preference to a rights issue. Having first documented the trend towards increasing use of placings, we go on to identify an interesting subset of placings that are less likely to be anticipated by the market, and find a significant positive market reaction to such placings, which contrasts with the significant negative reaction we find for issues by rights. We also examine the choice of seasoned equity issuance method, focusing on the choice between placings versus rights issues. We develop a model to explain the choice of equity issue method that achieves a high level of predictive accuracy.     

Immigration and equity home bias

Why do investors hold such large positions in domestic equity when there are gains to be made from international diversification? This equity home bias puzzle has received considerable attention in the literature, with asymmetric information on domestic and foreign assets (whether by individual choice or by market imperfection) emerging as the most plausible explanation. What happens when we consider a subset of investors whose information sets are closer to investors in foreign countries? I assess the relationship between immigration and equity home bias and find that inward migration is positively correlated with increased foreign equity positions and reduced home bias. Looking across income groups, outward migration reduces home bias for relatively rich countries, but may actually increase home bias when migration occurs to or from a developing country. These results suggest that immigration generates a positive externality of increased information flows for developed countries, but not for developing nations. The effects of immigration on investment are strongest within the Euro-Zone, suggesting that this positive externality of immigration is largest when barriers to portfolio diversification (such as currency risk) are lowest.     

The diversity of expertise on corporate boards in Australia

Expertise diversity is expected to enhance the monitoring and advising functions of boards of directors. Yet, little is known about the expertise that actually exists on corporate boards. In this study, we examine the diversity of professional expertise on corporate boards in Australia and implications for shareholder value. We categorise directors by 11 types of professional expertise and find the most common types of expertise are business executives, accountants, bankers, scientists, lawyers and engineers. We find that expertise diversity is primarily related to board size, industry and location. Our analysis also suggests that shareholders benefit when boards diversify their expertise within a subset of specialist business expertise (lawyers, accountants, consultants, bankers and outside CEOs). Further diversity beyond this subset of expertise is associated with lower firm value and performance.     

Contestability and Pay Differential in the Executive Suites

In comparison to the abundant evidence on CEOs' compensations, little is known about the compensation of other senior executives, and on how the pay differential between CEO and other senior executives affects firm performance. We examine several potential explanations of the pay differential in the executive suite, using a sample of 367 Israeli firms listed on the Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange. The empirical results fail to support the tournament and pay equity models. Instead, our evidence suggests a model where senior executives are encouraged (by the structure implied in their pay contract) to cooperate with each other (the team playing model). In a subset of firms managed by their owners we observe greater pay differentials between the owner-CEO and other senior executives. Interestingly, only in this subset of owner-managed firms, higher pay differentials can be associated with better firm performance.     

Predicting firm level stock returns: Implications for asset pricing and economic links

We examine the predictive ability of stock price ratios, stock return dispersion and distribution measures for firm level returns. Analysis typically focusses on market level returns, however, for the underlying asset pricing model to hold, firm-level predictability should be present. Additionally, we examine the economic content of predictability by considering whether the predictive coefficient has the theoretically correct sign and whether it is related to future output growth. While stock returns reflect investor expectations regarding future economic conditions, they are often too noisy to act as predictor. We use the time-varying predictive coefficient as it reflects investor confidence in the predictive relation. Results suggest that a subset of stock price ratios have predictive power for individual firm stock returns, exhibit the correct coefficient sign and has predictive power for output growth. Each of these ratios has a measure of fundamentals divided by the stock price and has a positive relation with stock returns and output growth. This implies that as investors expect future economic conditions to improve and earnings and dividends to rise, so expected stock returns will increase. This supports the cash flow channel as the avenue through which stock return predictability arises.     

Tax rates as strategic substitutes

This paper analytically derives conditions under which the slope of the tax-reaction function is negative in a classical tax competition model. If countries maximize welfare, a negative slope (reflecting strategic substitutability) occurs under relatively mild conditions. The strategic tax response is crucial for understanding tax competition games, as well as the welfare effects of partial tax unions (whereby a subset of countries coordinate their tax rates). Indeed, contrary to earlier findings that have assumed strategic complementarity in tax rates, we show that partial tax unions might reduce welfare under strategic substitutability.     

The association between non-financial performance measures in executive compensation contracts and earnings management

Executive compensation, especially cash bonus compensation, has come under fire by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the US Federal government, and the media for its role in the current economic crisis. Specifically, the SEC has argued that some compensation packages provide incentives for risk-taking that may undermine shareholder value over the long-term. Short-term incentive payments to executives in the form of cash bonuses are mostly contingent on reaching targets of accounting-related measures or financial performance measures (FPMs). However, the incentives from these payments may lead to accrual manipulation and earnings management (EM). Alternative measures are non-financial performance measures (NFPMs). We expect that firms that employ NFPMs in bonus contracts will have a lower prevalence of EM, since these measures tend to focus executives on the long-term. In this paper, we examine the type of performance measures used by firms in the S&;P 500 index in their cash bonus compensation. We find that firms that use both FPMs and NFPMs have lower discretionary accruals compared to firms that use only FPMs, consistent with lower income-increasing EM. However, we do not find evidence of a reduction in EM behavior using the incidence of meeting or just beating analyst earnings benchmarks, another common EM proxy. In additional tests on a subset of firms with equity offerings, in which incentives for income-increasing manipulation are likely high, we find that firms with NFPMs have lower discretionary accruals. The implication is that NFPMs can be used in compensation contracts to reduce EM behavior and mitigate erroneous executive compensation. This is important to investors as well as regulators, especially in light of the recent debate on compensation reform.     

Mutual fund trades and the value of contradictory private information

We investigate the performance of mutual funds that trade using private information. These funds are uniquely identified from a set of 2730 funds with 44,315 fund-periods between 1994 and 2005. We compare the alignment of fund trades with brokers’ recommendations, which we regard as “public information” in the universe of informed and uninformed mutual funds. Funds that systematically trade counter to the public information form a homogenous subset of the privately informed funds. By using private information that contradicts the public information, these funds exhibit a superior average performance. After we control for serial correlation in fund returns, we assess this advantage as being an economically significant 1.7% per annum. We also show empirically that smaller funds are better able to capture the benefit of private information.     

A friend in need is a friend indeed: Allocation and demand in IPO bookbuilding

This paper uses proprietary data on European IPOs with detailed information on the demand at different points of time and allocation for institutional and retail investors. The nature of the data allows us to analyze the reason of why institutional investors as a group get more allocations of underpriced issues than retail investors. By explicitly examining institutional and retail demand for different kinds of stocks, we find that this is due to institutional investors' superior ability to detect underpriced stocks rather than the underwriter's preferential treatment. At the same time, the subset of domestic institutional investors supports the underwriter in issues with weak demand and receives in turn favorable allocations in underpriced issues.     

Representative Interest Rate Scenarios

Abstract

This paper suggests a possible flexible solution to the time and resource problems of running a large number of stochastic interest rate scenarios, that is, selecting a representative subset. Each interest rate scenario consists of 30 future spot yield curves, in which 12 points are specified on each curve. The distribution of the scenarios is approximated by the subset, and each scenario in the subset has equal weight. The method is independent of the interest rate generator used. Modeling research may be more similar to experimental or laboratory science than to a mathematical science. This paper presents a new tool to evaluate.     

Reflections on the Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Accounting Project

The purpose of the interdisciplinary perspectives on accounting (IPA) project is to have an impact on the theory and practice of accounting as well as the surrounding social processes. The following discussion outlines the birth and maturation of the contemporary IPA project and concludes that the undertaking is divided along methodological, philosophical, and ideological lines. In addressing these issues, we propose to clarify and differentiate the nature and purpose of the contemporary IPA and critical accounting projects. The interdisciplinary work is directed generally toward a more complete understanding of accounting theory and practice and of the broader social institution of accountancy. The purpose of interdisciplinary studies is to heighten the awareness of those parties who are implicated in its enactment. The critical accounting project is viewed as a subset of the interdisciplinary project and provides a focus for those who wish to devise an approach that consciously privileges the linkage of knowledge to the pursuit of a radical political process. Whatever labels are employed, it must be recognized that though participants in the interdisciplinary project might disagree as to its source, intensity, and influence, the totalizing influence of hegemonic power is present in society and the world. This is so whether one classifies that world as modern or postmodern, or whether we see change as possible on a global level or only within some local sphere; issues of human rights, human dignity, and the human condition must be of central concern. Regardless of the interdisciplinary origin or grounding, we must continually affirm a commitment to a more socially responsible institution of accountancy. In our view, the critical accounting project provides a focus for those who wish to devise an approach to accounting studies that consciously privileges the realization of the philosophy of praxis. Those who choose the critical accounting project must recognize, however, that without an ever expanding interdisciplinary horizon, the critical project is likely to degenerate either into tyranny or quietism.