ON AGENT’S AGREEMENT AND PARTIAL‐EQUILIBRIUM PRICING IN INCOMPLETE MARKETS

We consider two risk‐averse financial agents who negotiate the price of an illiquid indivisible contingent claim in an incomplete semimartingale market environment. Under the assumption that the agents are exponential utility maximizers with nontraded random endowments, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions for negotiation to be successful, i.e., for the trade to occur. We also study the asymptotic case where the size of the claim is small compared to the random endowments and we give a full characterization in this case. Finally, we study a partial‐equilibrium problem for a bundle of divisible claims and establish existence and uniqueness. A number of technical results on conditional indifference prices is provided.     

AN OLD-NEW CONCEPT OF CONVEX RISK MEASURES: THE OPTIMIZED CERTAINTY EQUIVALENT

The optimized certainty equivalent (OCE) is a decision theoretic criterion based on a utility function, that was first introduced by the authors in 1986. This paper re-examines this fundamental concept, studies and extends its main properties, and puts it in perspective to recent concepts of risk measures. We show that the negative of the OCE naturally provides a wide family of risk measures that fits the axiomatic formalism of convex risk measures. Duality theory is used to reveal the link between the OCE and the φ-divergence functional (a generalization of relative entropy), and allows for deriving various variational formulas for risk measures. Within this interpretation of the OCE, we prove that several risk measures recently analyzed and proposed in the literature (e.g., conditional value of risk, bounded shortfall risk) can be derived as special cases of the OCE by using particular utility functions. We further study the relations between the OCE and other certainty equivalents, providing general conditions under which these can be viewed as coherent/convex risk measures. Throughout the paper several examples illustrate the flexibility and adequacy of the OCE for building risk measures.     

中小投资者的风险态度与市场环境

按照期望效用理论所揭示的风险厌恶、风险中性和风险追逐的3种风险态度的划分以及前景理论中投资者损失规避风险态度的特征,我们对我国A股市场投资者的风险偏好进行研究,发现在我国A股市场中小投资者风险态度受获得收益的显著影响,当投资者获得正收益时,总体呈现风险追逐,收益越高风险追逐的倾向越明显;当投资者获得负收益时,总体呈现风险中性,收益率与后市判断没有明显关系。我国中小投资者的风险态度不符合损失规避的特征。牛市环境下中小投资者总体呈现风险追逐,熊市环境下中小投资者总体风险中性。     

饭店并购的财务问题及风险规避

并购是现代饭店常见的一种资本运作,能有效地实现饭店的快速扩张。并购能够提高饭店的规模经济效率,降低交易费用,使饭店多元化发展。但饭店在并购中会出现并购目标饭店价值评估、并购饭店的支付方式、并购饭店的融资等一系列的财务问题。正确认识饭店并购的价值评估风险、流动性风险、融资风险和汇率风险等财务风险并进行合理规避十分重要。     

Context Dependence and Aggregation in Disaggregate Choice Analysis

There is an emerging consensus among disciplines dealing with human decision making that the context in which a decision is made is an important determinant of outcomes. This consensus has been slow in the making because much of what is known about context effects has evolved from a desire to demonstrate the untenability of certain common assumptions upon which tractable models of behavior have generally been built. This paper seeks tobring disparate disciplinary perspectives to bear on the relation between context and choice, to formulate (1) recommendations for improvements to the state-of-the-practice of Random Utility Models (RUMs) of choice behavior, and (2) a future research agenda to guide the further incorporation of context into these models of choice behavior.     

CERTAINTY EQUIVALENCE AND LOGARITHMIC UTILITIES IN CONSUMPTION/INVESTMENT PROBLEMS

We investigate an optimal consumption/investment decision problem with partially observable drift. Logarithmic utilities are shown to be necessary and sufficient for the certainty equivalence principle to hold. For the sufficiency part of the proof, we allow a general stochastic structure about the unobservable drift. On the other hand, a simple Bayesian structure is assumed for the necessity part in order to utilize the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations.     

不确定性与投资:实物期权还是冒险行为

文章依据公司不确定性与投资关系的实物期权理论与代理理论,从公司债务期限结构、投资不可逆性、公司成长性、财务困境和股权激励五个维度,提出风险投资关系及其影响因素的检验命题,并利用中国上市公司数据分析得到结果。研究结果表明,中国民营上市公司存在较强的投资风险规避倾向,但这种关系在存在财务困境和股权激励的公司表现减弱。国有上市公司存在相似的现象但显著性相对不明显。     

Cultural Dimensions,Risk Aversion and Corporate Dividend Policy

ABSTRACT

How does risk aversion affect corporate dividend payout? Finance theories have long suggested a relationship between risk aversion and dividends but there is little empirical evidence on the extent of this relationship. In this paper we construct measures of risk based on two cultural dimensions developed by Hofstede (1983, 1991). Using over ten years of data for firms in 14 countries, this study is the first to provide evidence that firms in countries with higher risk aversion exhibit both lower dividend ratios and lower propensity to pay dividends.     

INCORPORATING RISK AND AMBIGUITY AVERSION INTO A HYBRID MODEL OF DEFAULT

It is well known that purely structural models of default cannot explain short‐term credit spreads, while purely intensity‐based models lead to completely unpredictable default events. Here we introduce a hybrid model of default, in which a firm enters a “distressed” state once its nontradable credit worthiness index hits a critical level. The distressed firm then defaults upon the next arrival of a Poisson process. To value defaultable bonds and credit default swaps (CDSs), we introduce the concept of robust indifference pricing. This paradigm incorporates both risk aversion and model uncertainty. In robust indifference pricing, the optimization problem is modified to include optimizing over a set of candidate measures, in addition to optimizing over trading strategies, subject to a measure dependent penalty. Using our model and valuation framework, we derive analytical solutions for bond yields and CDS spreads, and find that while ambiguity aversion plays a similar role to risk aversion, it also has distinct effects. In particular, ambiguity aversion allows for significant short‐term spreads.     

EXISTENCE OF AN EQUILIBRIUM WITH DISCONTINUOUS PRICES, ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION, AND NONTRIVIAL INITIAL σ-FIELDS

In this paper, we solve the problems of optimization and equilibrium on a continuous-time financial market with discontinuous prices, in which agents have different random endowments and different information on the structure and future behavior of the prices. Our purpose is to go over and to extend the work of Pikovsky and Karatzas (1996) by using the theory developed by Amendinger (2000) about martingale representation theorems for initially enlarged filtrations, and to generalize the results in the case of discontinuous prices.     

中粮集团对俄罗斯农业投资的风险研究

随着“一带一路”的深入进行,我国和俄罗斯在农业投资领域的合作规模不断扩大,“双循环”战略提出构建国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局,更加推动了中粮集团在俄罗斯农业投资的规模。中粮集团对俄罗斯农业投资规模不断扩大的同时,企业所面临的各种风险也在不断扩大,再加上近两年新冠疫情对全球经济市场的冲击,国际政策、经济形势也随之变化,这对中粮集团自身发展和健康经营产生了极大的不利。为顺利推进农业建设,构建农业产业持续经营,对农业的投资风险的规避显得至关重要,本研究不仅可以促进农业投资和创新水平的提升,而且有助于农业现代化发展。     

第四方物流运行环境初探

4PL是一个供应链的集成,通过整合社会资源,解决物流信息充分共享、社会物流资源充分利用的问题.4PL的运行需要相应的经济、政策法律、风险规避制度、技术、管理人员和制度等宏观环境和微观环境支持,才能保证第四方物流的实现条件和风险规避。