Option trading after the opening bell and intraday stock return predictability

Prior literature finds that information is reflected in option markets before stock markets, but no study has explored whether option volume soon after market open has predictive power for intraday stock returns. Using novel intraday signed option-to-stock volume data, we find that a composite option trading score (OTS) in the first 30 min of market open predicts stock returns during the rest of the trading day. Such return predictability is greater for smaller stocks, stocks with higher idiosyncratic volatility, and stocks with higher bid–ask spreads relative to their options’ bid–ask spreads. Moreover, OTS is a significantly stronger predictor of intraday stock returns after overnight earnings announcements. The evidence suggests that option trading in the 30 min after the opening bell has predictive power for intraday stock returns.     

Volatility spreads and earnings announcement returns

Prior research documents that volatility spreads predict stock returns. If the trading activity of informed investors is an important driver of volatility spreads, then the predictability of stock returns should be more pronounced during major information events. This paper investigates whether the predictability of equity returns by volatility spreads is stronger during earnings announcements. Volatility spreads are measured by the implied volatility differences between pairs of strike price and expiration date matched put and call options and capture price pressures in the option market. During a two-day earnings announcement window, the abnormal returns to the quintile that includes stocks with relatively expensive call options is more than 1.5% greater than the abnormal returns to the quintile that includes stocks with relatively expensive put options. This result is robust after measuring volatility spreads in alternative ways and controlling for firm characteristics and lagged equity returns. The degree of announcement return predictability is stronger when volatility spreads are measured using more liquid options, the information environment is more asymmetric, and stock liquidity is low.     

Stock price clustering on option expiration dates

This paper presents striking evidence that option trading changes the prices of underlying stocks. In particular, we show that on expiration dates the closing prices of stocks with listed options cluster at option strike prices. On each expiration date, the returns of optionable stocks are altered by an average of at least 16.5 basis points, which translates into aggregate market capitalization shifts on the order of $9 billion. We provide evidence that hedge rebalancing by option market makers and stock price manipulation by firm proprietary traders contribute to the clustering.     

Option trading: Information or differences of opinion?

This paper investigates the motive of option trading. We show that option trading is mostly driven by differences of opinion, a finding different from the current literature that attempts to attribute option trading to information asymmetry. Our conclusion is based on three pieces of empirical evidence. First, option trading around earnings announcements is speculative in nature and mostly dominated by small, retail investors. Second, around earnings announcements, the pre-announcement abnormal turnovers of options seem to predict the post-announcement abnormal stock returns. However, once we control for the pre-announcement stock returns, the predictability completely disappears, implying that option traders simply take cues from the stock market and turn around to speculate in the options market. Third, cross-section and time-series regressions reveal that option trading is also significantly explained by differences of opinion. While informed trading is present in stocks, it is not detected in options.     

Retail clientele and option returns

Does the retail clientele matter for option returns? By delta-hedging options and trading straddles, thus allowing a focus on volatility, this paper empirically shows that a higher retail trading proportion (RTP) is related to lower option returns. Long-short portfolios involving options on low and high RTP stocks generate significantly positive abnormal returns. The results suggest that retail investors speculate and pay a lottery premium on the expected future volatility, resulting in more expensive options with higher implied volatilities.     

Relative informational efficiency of cash,futures, and options markets: The case of an emerging market

We study the lead–lag relationships among the spot, futures, and options markets on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HSI). The young options market experiences thin trading, and the option returns lag the cash index returns. The more mature futures market experiences active trading. Yet its lead over the cash index appears to be less than the counterparts in other countries. A possible reason is the dominance of a few major stocks in the index; and these stocks have symmetric lead–lag relations with the futures. Furthermore, the informativeness of the non-lasting futures and options quotations seems to depend on the market maturity.     

DIVERSIFICATION AND SKEWNESS IN OPTION PORTFOLIOS

Skewness in returns is relevant to option investors. Because options possess positively skewed distributions, the traditional maxim of diversification, which can destroy positive skewness, is not necessarily consistent with investment objectives. The results indicate that the majority of skewness in option portfolios is diversified with a relatively small portfolio size, suggesting a strategy of antidiversification for option investors. Even though the investment performance of options is inferior to stocks on a risk-return basis, the data indicate the suitability of option portfolios in an environment where an investor's utility is measured by the return, risk, and skewness of the return distribution.     

A unique view of hedge fund derivatives usage: Safeguard or speculation?

We study the common equity and equity option positions of hedge fund investment advisors over the 1999–2006 period. We find that hedge funds' stock positions predict future returns and that option positions predict both volatility and returns on the underlying stock. A quarterly tracking portfolio of stocks based on publicly observable hedge fund option holdings earns abnormal returns of 1.55% through the end of the quarter. Net of fees, hedge funds using options deliver higher benchmark-adjusted portfolio returns and lower risk than nonusers. The results suggest that hedge fund positions reflect significant timing and selectivity skill.     

DEALER BID-ASK SPREADS AND OPTIONS TRADING ON OVER-THE-COUNTER STOCKS

In this study the impact of option listings on bid-ask spreads for over-the-counter stocks is examined. Option listings are hypothesized to impact spreads by affecting the inventory-holding cost and/or the informed risk component of spreads. Univariate tests reveal that the commencement of options trading is accompanied by a statistically significant decline in percentage spreads. In addition, it is found that there is a significant rise in the average daily stock trading volume in the post-option-listing period, while there is no significant change in variance of the underlying stock returns in the short term. Regression results indicate that some stocks experience a decline in spreads even after controlling for changes in inventory-holding costs. The univariate and regression results taken in conjunction indicate a favorable impact of option listings on both the inventory-holding cost and informed-trading risk components of spread determinants. The combined evidence suggests that initiation of options trading enhances the overall liquidity of the underlying stock.     

Understanding Delta-Hedged Option Returns in Stochastic Volatility Environments

In this paper, we provide a novel representation of delta-hedged option returns in a stochastic volatility environment. The representation of delta-hedged option returns provided in this paper consists of two terms: volatility risk premium and parameter estimation risk. In an empirical analysis, we examine delta-hedged option returns based on the result of a historical simulation with the USD-JPY currency option market data from October 2003 to June 2010. We find that the delta-hedged option returns for OTM put options are strongly affected by parameter estimation risk as well as the volatility risk premium, especially in the post-Lehman shock period.     

Neighborhood matters: The impact of location on broad based stock option plans

We find that fixed effects related to the location of firms’ headquarters explain variation in broad based option grants after controlling for industry effects and firm characteristics traditionally known to affect option granting. Location matters because of local labor market conditions and social interaction with neighboring firms. Broad based option grants are higher: (i) when a firm's stock prices co-move more with stock prices of other firms located in that Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA); (ii) in states that are less likely to enforce non-compete agreements; and (iii) in MSAs where employees prefer options because stocks there experience abnormally high returns.     

On Jumps in Common Stock Prices and Their Impact on Call Option Pricing

The Black-Scholes call option pricing model exhibits systematic empirical biases. The Merton call option pricing model, which explicitly admits jumps in the underlying security return process, may potentially eliminate these biases. We provide statistical evidence consistent with the existence of lognormally distributed jumps in a majority of the daily returns of a sample of NYSE listed common stocks. However, we find no operationally significant differences between the Black-Scholes and Merton model prices of the call options written on the sampled common stocks.     

Can we forecast the implied volatility surface dynamics of equity options? Predictability and economic value tests

We examine whether the dynamics of the implied volatility surface of individual equity options contains exploitable predictability patterns. Predictability in implied volatilities is expected due to the learning behavior of agents in option markets. In particular, we explore the possibility that the dynamics of the implied volatility surface of individual stocks may be associated with movements in the volatility surface of S&P 500 index options. We present evidence of strong predictable features in the cross-section of equity options and of dynamic linkages between the volatility surfaces of equity and S&P 500 index options. Moreover, time-variation in stock option volatility surfaces is best predicted by incorporating information from the dynamics in the surface of S&P 500 options. We analyze the economic value of such dynamic patterns using strategies that trade straddle and delta-hedged portfolios, and find that before transaction costs such strategies produce abnormal risk-adjusted returns.     

The information content of implied volatilities and model-free volatility expectations: Evidence from options written on individual stocks

We measure the volatility information content of stock options for individual firms using option prices for 149 US firms and the S&P 100 index. We use ARCH and regression models to compare volatility forecasts defined by historical stock returns, at-the-money implied volatilities and model-free volatility expectations for every firm. For 1-day-ahead estimation, a historical ARCH model outperforms both of the volatility estimates extracted from option prices for 36% of the firms, but the option forecasts are nearly always more informative for those firms that have the more actively traded options. When the prediction horizon extends until the expiry date of the options, the option forecasts are more informative than the historical volatility for 85% of the firms. However, at-the-money implied volatilities generally outperform the model-free volatility expectations.     

Returns and option activity over the option-expiration week for S&P 100 stocks

For S&P 100 stocks, we find that the weekly returns over option-expiration (OE) weeks (a month’s third-Friday week) tend to be high, relative to: (1) the third-Friday weekly returns of other stocks with less option activity, (2) the own stock’s other weekly returns, (3) the risk, based on asset-pricing alphas. For these same stocks, a month’s fourth-Friday weekly returns underperform modestly. We suggest the following two avenues are likely partial contributors towards understanding these return patterns: (1) delta-hedge rebalancing by option market makers, with a reduction in short-stock hedge positions over the OE week, and (2) declining risk perceptions over the OE week, as measured by option-derived implied volatilities. Our findings suggest option activity can induce reliable patterns in the weekly returns of option-active large-cap stocks.     

The information content of stock split announcements: Do options matter?

We provide a new test of the informational efficiency of trading in stock options in the context of stock split announcements. These announcements tend to be associated with positive abnormal returns. Our traditional event study results show abnormal returns that are significantly lower for optioned than non-optioned stocks, whether traded on the NYSE, Amex, or Nasdaq. After controlling for market returns, capitalization, book-to-market ratio, and trading volume, we find that the abnormal returns are significantly lower for NYSE/Amex optioned than non-optioned stocks. Although the results for Nasdaq stocks are not as clear, the overall effects tend to be lower after optioning. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that the prices of optioned stocks embody more information, diminishing the impact of the stock split announcement. They provide new evidence of the beneficial effects of options on their underlying stocks.     

Real option component of cash holdings,business cycle,and stock returns

Corporate managers tend to preserve cash with an expectation of a worse economy while spend cash to exercise growth opportunities with a favorable economic condition. Using three empirical proxies (book-to-market ratio, idiosyncratic volatility and return on asset) in the literature, we extract a real option component of corporate cash holdings, serving both functions of precautionary saving and exercising growth options. Our empirical results show this component, in aggregate, increases when the real GDP declines and decreases when GDP inflates. Also, stocks with returns declining more to a shock to the aggregate real option component of cash holdings earn higher future returns. Moreover, stock returns of firms with higher cash holdings positively comove with the shock to the aggregate real option component, suggesting investors prefer to hold firms with higher cash holdings when the economy is deteriorating.     

Short Sales and Option Listing Decisions

We find that stocks with higher levels of prelisting short activity have a greater probability of option listing. These results are driven by the prelisting short activity of market makers, which suggests that exchanges believe that stocks with greater short selling will provide option market makers a better opportunity to hedge with short sales in the spot market. We also confirm that after options are listed, stocks with more prelisting short activity have more option trading activity. These results indicate that option exchanges strategically list options for stocks they believe with generate high trading volume thereby maximizing the profits of exchange members.     

Hedging efficiency in the Greek options market before and after the financial crisis of 2008

This study examines the hedging effectiveness of the emerging Greek options market before and after the financial crisis of 2008. We test the hypothesis of market efficiency by analyzing violations of FTSE/ASE-20 index option returns with respect to standard option theory, estimating option risk-premia, and testing the statistical significance of the returns to delta and delta–vega neutral straddles. Our empirical results suggest that, despite a certain level of mispricing, the Athens Derivatives Exchange maintained a relative level of efficiency before 2008. However, the economic crisis has had a significant impact on the Greek options market, as evidenced by more pronounced violations of theoretical predictions observed in option returns and risk-premia. These findings have direct implications for the risk management of international portfolios, since the feasibility and effectiveness of hedging exposure in Greek investments is found to have declined precisely when it is needed the most.     

Relevance of the disposition effect on the options market: New evidence

A moneyness‐based propensity to sell (MPS) measure, at the aggregate level, determines the propensity of option holders to exercise their winning relative to losing positions. Using data on individual stock and S&P 500 Index options, we find that the MPS measure has significant predictive power over the cross section of delta‐hedged option returns. We test the disposition effect in the options market based on a long–short strategy that exploits price distortions induced by the disposition bias. More pronounced evidence of the disposition bias is found for individual at‐the‐money call options than put options where the significance of abnormal returns remains robust across different subsamples even after we control for the portfolio option greeks and market‐based risk factors. The profitability of the long–short strategy is related to limit‐to‐arbitrage proxies suggesting that behavioral explanations help explain the positive relation between the MPS measure and delta‐hedged option returns.