Long-term effects of labor market conditions on family formation for Japanese youth

This study aims to examine how each cohort’s family formation is affected by labor market conditions experienced in youth in Japan. Although the deterioration in youth employment opportunities has often been blamed for Japan’s declining fertility rate, the effect of slack labor market conditions on fertility is theoretically unclear. We estimate the effects of regional labor market conditions at entry to the labor market and contemporaneous conditions on fertility, controlling for nation-wide year effects and prefecture fixed effects, and find the following. First, high school-educated women who experienced a recession while entering the labor market are less likely to have children. In contrast, a recession rather increases fertility among college-educated women. When summed up, the aggregate impact of labor market conditions experienced in youth on fertility is weak. Second, the unemployment rate at entry to the labor market is positively correlated with the probability of having two or more children conditionally on having at least one child. Third, the contemporaneous unemployment rate is negatively correlated with marriage of women in the local labor market, although the correlation is weak and concentrated on the less educated group.     

Child Labor and the Interaction between the Quantity and Quality of Children

This article analyzes the impacts of child labor on the interaction between the quantity and quality of children in the spirit of Becker and Lewis. It shows that, without child labor, the quantity of children can be a normal good so that it increases with parental income under some fairly standard formulations. However, the correlation between fertility and parental income becomes negative when the role of child labor is considered. The model also implies that fertility increases with the wage rate of child labor. Moreover, it suggests that government intervention not only directly affects the supply of child labor but also influences parents' decisions on fertility, which indirectly determines children's labor market participations.     

Long-Term Effects of Labour Market Entry Conditions: The Case of Korea

This study investigates the effects of labour market conditions at the time of graduation, proxied by the local unemployment rate, on long-term family and labour market outcomes in Korea. The examination yields four main findings. Labour market entry conditions have strong and persistent effects among high school graduates. Male college graduates have a persistently lower probability of working at large firms if the demand for local labour shrinks at the time of graduation. Self-employment can be persistently hampered by adverse economic conditions at graduation. Family formation and childbearing are temporarily affected by labour market entry conditions, especially for less educated women. The first three findings highlight the notable segmentation of the Korean labour market into protected jobs in large firms – mostly part of business groups (chaebols) – and unprotected jobs.     

Earnings mobility during labor market reforms in urban China

This paper provides empirical evidence on patterns of earnings mobility for China for the 2000s and before to study how the labor market reform in the late 1990s affects individuals' earnings mobility. We find convergent earnings mobility in the 1990s but clearly divergent earnings mobility in the 2000s, meaning that those with the highest earnings to begin with experienced the largest earnings gains after 2000. Policies would be desirable such as compensating low-skill workers by establishing government-initiated training programs. More generally, welfare policies are necessary to help disadvantaged workers avoid from low-income or poverty traps who suffer from negative shocks in market-oriented reforms.     

The long-term and intergenerational effects of early-life hunger experience on human capital and labor market outcomes

Using individual-level retrospective data on early-life hunger experience from China, we investigate the long-term effects of early nutritional deprivation on one's own and adult children's human capital and labor market outcomes. With an instrumental variable approach, we find that hunger experience lowers educational attainment and job quality of the first generation. But this negative impact on human capital does not transmit to the second generation, possibly due to parents' compensatory behavior of human capital investment and extra attention given to children. Our findings imply that the negative impact of non-extreme nutritional adversities on human capital and labor market outcomes are likely to decrease over generations.     

Does the early bird catch the worm? Evidence and interpretation on the long-term impact of school entry age in China

The long-term impact of children's age at primary school entry on educational attainment and labor market outcomes is one of the primary concerns to families, educators, and policymakers. Using a nationally representative survey of families and individuals, this paper is among the first to explore these effects in a causal sense in the Chinese context and understand the underlying mechanisms. We use a regression discontinuity (RD) design that employs the threshold date for primary school entry set by the 1986 Compulsory Education Law of China as a source of exogenous variation in the timing of school entry. We first document a salient and robust compliance rate of school entry requirement. RD estimates indicate that being born right after the cutoff date significantly increases years of schooling and annual earnings for non-agricultural jobs for the full sample. We also observe remarkable heterogeneous effects on labor market performance by gender. Being born right after the cutoff increases the probability of being in the labor force for men, but decreases that for women. We find that the decline in female labor force participation is mainly driven by women who come from economically and socially disadvantaged families. Further evidence suggests that this decline can be explained by supply-side factors including fertility decision and childcare provisions.     

Sibling Similarity in High School Graduation Outcomes: Causal Interdependency or Unobserved Heterogeneity?

This paper uses data on age-adjacent sibling pairs from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to test for causal interdependencies between the high school graduation outcomes of older and younger siblings. Even after controlling for observable background characteristics, the graduation probability of an individual whose sibling graduated from high school exceeds the graduation probability of an individual whose sibling did not graduate by a large amount. However, this difference does not measure the causal effect of sibling graduation because of unobserved family factors and genuine simultaneity in the determination of all siblings' graduation outcomes. To measure the causal effect of sibling achievement on own achievement, I specify models in which sibling achievement is endogenous and estimate these models by two-stage methods using sibling-specific background characteristics as instruments. The evidence indicates that older sibling achievement has a positive causal effect on younger sibling achievement but that younger sibling achievement has no significant influence on older sibling achievement. These results are consistent with a model of intrafamily allocation in which parents learn about child endowments sequentially.     

The impact of child labor on children's educational performance: Evidence from rural Vietnam

In 1998, nearly one-third of Vietnamese children engaged in non-housework labor supply, 95% of these working children residing in rural areas. This paper investigates the impact of child labor on children's educational outcomes in rural Vietnam using the 1998-Vietnam Living Standard Survey. The paper finds that child labor lowers children's academic performance and the negative impact is bigger for girls.     

The effects of formal and informal child care on the Mother's labor supply—Evidence from urban China

The women's labor force participation rate in China has declined considerably during the last twenty years in urban China. Since the reforms started in the mid-1990s, publicly subsidized child care programs have decreased, and private care centers have increased. This might have increased the reliance of working mothers on informal child care and reduced their reliance on formal child care. Using post-reform data from the Project on Rural–Urban Migration in China (RUMiC) of 2008, I estimate the effects of formal and informal child care on the labor supply of mothers of young children. A recursive model with instrumental variables is employed to account for endogeneity. I find a positive and significant impact of informal child care in the form of grandchild care on the mother's labor force participation, while no significant effect of formal child care in the form of kindergartens or paid nannies. Considering recent tendencies in China to postpone retirement, one possible method to maintain mothers' presence in the labor market could be to reinforce the availability and affordability of formal child care.²³     

The Effect of Child Care Costs on the Employment and Welfare Recipiency of Single Mothers

This paper considers the effect of child care costs on two labor market outcomes for single mothers—whether to work for pay and whether to receive welfare. Hourly child care expenditures are estimated using data drawn from the 1992 and 1993 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). These expenditures are then used to predict the probability of welfare recipiency and employment. While the direction and significance of key variables are robust to changes in specification, the quantitative results are found to be sensitive to identification restrictions. All results show a substantial positive effect of child care costs on welfare recipiency, with the child care price elasticity of welfare recipiency varying from 1.0 to 1.9. Similarly, we find a significant negative effect of child care price on employment with elasticity estimates from -.3 to -1.1, showing that controlling for the welfare choice does not reduce the price elasticity of employment found in other studies.     

The Impact of an Academic High School Tuition Relief Program on Students’ Matriculation into High Schools in Rural China

By 2010, only one-quarter of workers in China had received a high school (HS) education. One of the root causes of this low rate is that China has the highest HS tuition fees globally. Although the Chinese government has implemented a series of programs to reduce the cost of attending vocational HS, the cost of attending academic HS in China emains high. This study evaluates the extent to which an academic HS tuition relief program initiated by a poor county in western China affects students' schooling decisions after graduation from junior high school. By using a longitudinal dataset of 2348 students in two counties, we use ordinary least squares and propensity score matching to evaluate the impact of this program on four student outcomes: matriculation into academic HS, matriculation into vocational HS, entering the labor market, and retaking high school entrance exams. The results show that the program significantly increased matriculation into academic HS by 21 percentage points, while it reduced matriculation into vocational HS by 7 percentage points, the likelihood of entering the labor market by 11.9percentage points, and the likelihood of retaking exams by 2.1 percentage points. Further, we find that the effects of the program among middle-income students are stronger compared with those of other groups. And we found that the program had no significantly heterogeneous impact on students with different academic performance.     

Family size,labor supply,and job prestige: Evidence from three decennial censuses in China

This study investigates the relationship between family size and parents’ labor market performance, measured by labor supply and occupational prestige scores, based on three census waves in 1990, 2000, and 2010. To address the endogeneity problem of family size, we use the indicator of twins at first birth as an instrumental variable. Our results suggest that in nuclear households, family size affects the labor market performance only of mothers, not of fathers, with the negative effects fading and gradually disappearing over time. More specifically, an increase in family size decreases female labor supply in the 1990 wave, leads to lower prestige scores among working mothers in the 2000 wave, and has no impact on labor supply or occupational prestige scores in the 2010 wave. Our subsample analysis indicates that the negative effects of family size are more severe for parents of households with all children under seven years old and for husbands or wives with lower education level than that of their partners. In addition, we find that the negative effects of family size on parental labor market outcomes are not observed in extended households, especially when no grandparents are aged 65 years or older.     

Solution or isolation: Is boarding school a good solution for left-behind children in rural China?

In recent decades, rural China has experienced a rapid increase in boarding school enrollment rates and in the population of left-behind children (LBC) (i.e., rural children whose parents migrate to urban areas for work). LBC tend to be worse off in numerous dimensions. At 61 million, China has the world's largest population of LBC. As it provides a different residential environment, boarding school can potentially exacerbate or mitigate the negative effects of parental migration. Using nationally representative data on Chinese families, we estimate the impact of parental migration and boarding school on child outcomes in cognition and physical and mental health. We find that while boarding school has no effect on LBC physical and mental health, it substantially improves performance on achievement tests for both LBC and non-LBC. Policies aimed at improving boarding school conditions in China, may improve not only cognitive outcomes, but also child physical and mental well-being.     

Poverty and Other Determinants of Child Labor in Bangladesh

In this research we examine poverty and other determinants of child labor in Bangladesh. We define income quintiles as a means of measuring family poverty and add child and family characteristics to our model. We estimate the likelihood that a child will work, using separate logistic regression models for younger and older boys and girls in urban and rural areas. Our results support the notion that a family's poverty affects the probability that a child will work; keeping children away from work is a luxury these families cannot afford. Moreover, it is important to examine separate demographic groups in order to fully understand the determinants of child labor in Bangladesh since the effects of child and family variables on the probability that a child will work differ among these groups.     

The optimal delayed retirement age in aging China: Determination and impact analysis

Facing a deepening aging population, nations like China are calling for a gradually delayed retirement policy urgently. Based on the dynamic model of Miyazaki (2014), this paper first examines the difference between the agent's labor productivities in youth and old age (the age difference in labor productivity as defined below). We then establish an agent's optimal consumption model under the background of delayed retirement, and derive formulas to calculate the steady-state output per labor, wage rate, and rate of capital return. Based on the model, we propose a formula to determine the optimal delayed retirement age, which can optimize the government's delaying retirement policy. Moreover, we provide theoretical demonstrations and perform numerical simulations about how delayed retirement ages affect key variables such as the agent's optimal consumption and steady-state output per labor in the context of deepening population aging, and further analyze how the Chinese government determines the optimal delayed retirement age. Results are as follows: Firstly, extending the delayed retirement age will reduce the agent's optimal youth consumption, but increase the agent's optimal old-age consumption, life-time consumption, and the total consumption of economy in the current period. Secondly, the aging population problem is affected by both changes in the birth rate and the survival probability. From 2020 to 2100, the former is constantly declining in China, while the latter is gradually rising. Although these two drivers have different influences on the optimal delayed retirement age, the influence of a higher survival probability is greater, so aging postpones the optimal delayed retirement age in China. Thirdly, the degree of population aging and the agent's labor productivity of the elderly are two main factors affecting the optimal delayed retirement age. Although both factors present an increasing trend from 2020 to 2100, they have opposite implications: the former dominates the latter until 2075 and increases the optimal delayed retirement age. On the other hand, the inhibitory effect of the latter gradually increases and eventually dominates the former from 2075. Fourthly, under the cross influence of the above two factors, the optimal delayed retirement age in China shows an inverted U-shaped trend of rising initially and then decreasing after reaching the peak in 2075. Fifthly, we estimate that if the delayed retirement policy is adopted from 2025, it is reasonable to set the average annual delayed retirement time to two to three months. Finally, we propose measures and suggestions to mitigate the possible negative impacts of delayed retirement.     

A Cointegration Model of Age-Specific Fertility and Female Labor Supply in the United States

Cointegration methods suitable for estimation and testing with nonstationary data are applied to U.S. time-series data on age-specific fertility rates, female labor force participation rates, women's wages, unemployment rates and educational attainment, and male relative incomes. Likelihood ratio tests indicate the existence of two cointegrating relations that are identified as a fertility equation and a labor supply equation, respectively. Estimated long-run relations are consistent with economic models of fertility and female labor market behavior, and these results are robust across both age-groups and several alternative model specifications.     

Little emperors in the workplace: Labor market consequences of China's one-child policy

What is the impact of China's One-Child Policy on the labor market outcomes of the only children that it engendered? This paper quantifies the wage income gap between only children and their peers (i.e. those with siblings), and uncovers the channels that underlie it. While only children receive higher wage income on average, we find that this only-child premium disappears completely once their superior schooling attainment and family background are accounted for. Moreover, we learn that the One-Child Policy resulted in a negative only-child effect on wage income, after conditioning on pre-determined characteristics; this may be due to only children lacking socio-emotional attributes that are valued in the labor market. Our results deliver important insights for China as only children continue to dominate its labor force at a rapid pace.     

Human Capital and Hours Worked of Children in Cambodia: Empirical Evidence for Policy Implications*

This study uses data from the Cambodian Child Labor Survey 2001/02 (CCLS‐2001/02) to investigate the trade‐off between child labor and their human capital formation. It also investigates the determinants of child schooling and that of the income earned from child labor. This study finds that children's education is a significant determinant of their wage rate, which implicitly explains the logic behind the household's decision to allow a child to both work and study, and thus explains why parents keep investing in their children's education. We also find that non‐poor households and fathers’ and mothers’ education have statistically significant effects on child schooling. Finally, this study has found that if children's average working hours are below the threshold level of 22 h per week, then education is not affected. These research findings have policy implications for the human capital development of children, as well as for broader social policy in Cambodia.     

Early Smoking,Education, and Labor Market Performance

This study investigates the effects of early smoking on educational attainment and labor market performance by using mixed ordered and mixed proportional hazard models. The results show that early smoking adversely affects educational attainment and initial labor market performance, but only for males. The probability to finish a scientific degree is 4%-point lower for an early smoker. The effect of early smoking on initial labor market performance is indirect through educational attainment. Once the indirect effect is controlled for there is no direct effect. Moreover, for males only, early smoking has a negative effect on current labor market performance even after conditioning on educational attainment. The probability to have an academic job is 4%-point lower for an early smoker. For females neither education nor labor market performance is affected by early smoking.     

Effects of birth spacing and timing on mothers' labor force participation

Data from the March 1991Current Population Survey [Bureau of the Census, 1992] were used to investigate the effects of children on single and married mothers' labor force participation decisions. Logit results indicated that for both single and married mothers, an increase in education and market experience increases the probability of market participation while an increase in income has a negative effect on the likelihood of mothers' labor market participation. The number of children present in the household negatively affected participation while an increase in the age of children positively influenced the mother's labor market participation. The spacing effect in the married group and the timing effect in the single group were significant. Furthermore, an increase in the number of older children in the household (between the ages of 12 and 17 years) increased the probability of labor market participation by single mothers but decreased that of married mothers.