失业与市场经济

自改革开放以来,伴随着市场经济体制改革的不断深化,我国出现了严重的失业问题。本文对我国失业形成的原因做了系统性的分析,并据此指出解决我国失业问题的对策。     

How does the first job matter for an individual’s career life in Japan?

Exploiting annual information on the work status of female workers from the Japanese Panel Survey of Consumers (JPSC), this paper examines how an individual’s job status immediately after graduation, referred to as “first job,” matters for his/her future job career. Using the ratio of regular employees in the labor force in the year preceding an individual’s graduation as an instrument for the first-job status (i.e., regular job or not), we confirm that even for women, whose retention rates are lower than those of men because of marriage and childbirth, individuals’ first-job status has a significant effect on their job status in the future. We further find that the effect gradually declines over the years and effectively disappears around 10 years after graduation. Finally, we find that the first-job effect is reversible: no negative effect of failing to obtain a regular job at graduation is observed if an individual can secure regular employment within a reasonable time period after graduation.     

现行农村经营体制存在的问题与改革探索

下岗失业问题已成为全国关注的焦点。在认识我国存在失业的基础上 ,承认市场经济下失业的必然性 ,充分认识和利用适度失业的积极作用 ,对于资源优化配置 ,提高劳动者及全社会素质 ,促进经济和社会健康稳定发展意义重大。     

大学生就业市场的失衡与保障选择

在市场经济发展的历史上,就业市场供需失衡的事例并非罕见。而当今大学毕业生面临的就业市场风险是前所未有的。如果现有的社会保障制度能够承受大学毕业生供大于求的状况,亦即现有的社会保障制度能够使得失业的大学生不至于影响社会安定,则市场的调节作用将是有效的。而目前的失业救济和失业保险制度都可以暂时解决他们的就业危机,但两类保障模式存在着差异性。文章从当前就业市场失衡的现状入手,论证了将大学生纳入失业保险优于失业救济的保障选择。     

六安市农业剩余劳动力转移的探讨

地处皖西地区的六安市是一个人口大市、农业大市，在农业剩余劳动力转移问题上表现得尤为滞后与迟缓。影响因素主要有转移主体的素质制约、庞大的人口基数、转移过程的社会环境制约等。为加快皖西地区经济发展，促进农业剩余劳动力转移，一是大力开展职业技能培训；二是大力发展乡镇企业；三是加快城镇化的进程：四是加快发展农村第三产业；五是设施制度革新，彻底转移农业剩余劳动力。     

Solution to the Dilemma of the Migrant Labor Shortage and the Rural Labor Surplus in China

Since 2003, China＇s labor market has been facing two coexisting crises： a rural labor surplus and a severe shortage of migrant labor Using data from the 2000 China Health and Nutrition Survey questionnaire, which covers 288 villages in 36 counties, this paper attempts to find a solution to this dilemma. Specifically, a multinomial logit model, a Mincer- type model and a probit model are applied to examine the effect of educational level on the employment choices for rural laborers, and on the wages and the employment status of migrants. Based on the results of our analysis, we propose the implementation of policy aimed at increasing the educational level of rural dwellers, in conjunction with other policies to eliminate all artificial barriers, to facilitate the migration of rural laborers.     

我国制度变迁中的劳动力市场分析

尽管我国的就业体制已经基本由过去的计划配置转向市场经济的市场配置,然而,传统经济体制下制度的路径依赖效应仍然对劳动力市场的一体化进程产生阻碍,极大地制约着我国劳动力资源比较优势的发挥,影响资源配置效率.     

内部劳动力市场、就业惯性与农业贡献弱化——对“民工荒”的一个解释

文章从劳动力市场要素变化和劳动者就业惯性着手,建立了一个新的分析视角,分析了“民工荒”产生的原因,提出了解决策略。文章通过数据分析得出如下结论：我国东部地区“民工荒”产生的原因,一是中部地区的重新崛起使中部农村剩余劳动力就地跨行业转移,从而减少就业惯性阻力;二是内部劳动力市场的变化加强了就业惯性力量。     

Labour Market Policy and Welfare Reform: Meeting Distribution and Efficiency Objectives

Alongside the growth in overall employment and the steady rise in average real incomes over the 1990s, many developed countries experienced a concentration of low labour market attachment and low pay among certain groups in society. In response, the focus of welfare policy shifted towards targeted making work pay programs. This paper considers the validity of the arguments underlying this shift in welfare policy. It examines two broad classes of policies: active labour market programs and earned income tax credits.     

What Happened to European Unemployment?

Summary  Many academic papers were still being written on mass unemployment in Europe. While, unemployment in the EU15 was falling dramatically. Not only academics, but also European workers at large did not seem to appreciate these labour market developments. I offer two explanations for this puzzling deterioration of workers perceptions of the labour market in spite of disappearing unemployment: (i) labour market risk increased, and (ii) employment growth occurred at the cost of stagnating labour productivity. This means that the new labour market offers a worse risk-return combination. Strategies to address these issues are discussed in the final section of the paper. This paper provides an extended version of the first Willem F. Duisenberg Lecture, held at the University of Amsterdam on February 28, 2008. I am particularly grateful to NIAS for this opportunity and to Petry Kievit for having greatly improved my English.     

Negishi–Solow efficiency wages, unemployment insurance and dynamic deterministic indeterminacy

This paper introduces efficiency wages designed to provide workers with incentives to make appropriate effort levels, and involuntary unemployment, along the pioneering lines of Negishi (1979) , Solow (1979) and Shapiro and Stiglitz (1984) , in a dynamic model involving heterogeneous agents and financial constraints as in Woodford (1986) and Grandmont et al. (1998) . Effort varies continuously while there is unemployment insurance funded out of taxation of labor incomes. Increasing unemployment insurance is beneficial to employment along the deterministic stationary state, and can even in some cases lead to a Pareto welfare improvement for all agents, through general equilibrium effects, by generating higher individual real labour incomes, hence larger consumptions of employed and unemployed workers, and thus higher production. In contrast, the local (in)determinacy properties of the stationary state are opposite to those obtained in the competitive specification of the model: local determinacy (indeterminacy) occurs for elasticities of capital-efficient labor substitution lower (larger) than a quite small bound. Increasing unemployment insurance is more likely to lead to local indeterminacy and, therefore, to generate dynamic inefficiencies due to the corresponding expectations coordination failures.     

我国农民工劳动合约签订率低的原因分析——基于劳动力市场分割和产业分割的分析框架

劳动合约签订是劳动保护的重要形式,但我国农民工劳动合约签订率却只是在2008年《劳动合同法》实施后有暂时较大幅度的上扬,此后随时间推移却几近停滞。文章以劳动力市场分割和产业分割框架为基础,构建了不同劳动力市场特征和产业组织特征组合的四象限分析框架,探讨了不同象限中劳动合约的运行机制,并结合我国边缘产业和农民工现状,就劳动合约签订问题建立了一个简单的博弈模型。分析得出,在边缘产业与次级劳动力市场的组合下,农民工劳动合约签订存在着组织失灵、市场失灵和政府失灵三重困境,这是我国农民工劳动合同签约率停滞不前的主要原因。文章最后提出了相应的结论和政策建议。     

用工荒与就业难并存的经济学分析

文章首先分析了用工荒与就业难并存的表面原因,进而得出产业结构不合理、城乡二元结构、城市内部存在的“新二元”结构及人力资本不足是两者并存的内在原因。文章认为,解决用工荒和就业难的对策：一要调整产业结构;二要实行积极的就业政策;三要加大资本投资;四要完善社会保障体系。     

The impact of intraindustry trade on the natural rate of unemployment in two simple models

This paper builds in two popular versions of the theory of equilibrium unemployment into a world economy engaged purely in intraindustry trade of differentiated products. We show that free trade through increasing the range of varieties available for consumption and expanding economies of scale leads to a lowering of the equilibrium rates of unemployment in all participating countries. Thus, we demonstrate channels through which international trade alleviates the problem of high unemployment in each country engaged in pure intraindustry trade.     

广东省劳动力市场分割与供求关系的实证分析

通过分析广东省劳动力供求状况,发现存在"供不应求"和"失业"并存的现象。那么是什么因素导致人才没有在各行业间自由流动呢?劳动力市场分割理论对此现象作出了解释,本文根据原因提出了相应的建议。     

劳动力市场的新趋势与养老保险制度的完善

自20世纪90年代末以来,随着经济体制改革的推进和社会的发展变迁,我国劳动力市场出现劳动参与率下降、灵活就业形式越来越普遍的现象,并且人口老龄化日益显现,未来劳动力供给可能减少,劳动力市场的这些新趋势将给养老保险制度带来挑战,本文拟对此进行分析,并在此基础上对养老保险制度的完善提出对策建议。     

转型劳动力市场中工资差距扩大分析

文章认为,我国劳动力市场转型主要是工资结构的调整以及人们在不同就业状态上的分化。劳动力市场改革也使得工资差距不合理的扩大。劳动力市场中收入分配失序的原因有国家规制、非价格机制和劳动力市场分割等。如果我国在构建和谐社会的过程中,采取新的发展战略,重构劳动力市场改革,那么,将不仅有利于经济效率的改善,也有利于收入分配更为平等。