税费改革后农村所面临的问题和思考

目前我国风险投资业还很不完善 ,在风险资本规模、运作机制和退出机制等方面存在着许多缺陷。本文主要讨论我国风险投资在资本规模和资金来源结构两方面存在的问题 ,重点探讨如何进行制度创新 ,利用信托基金这种运作机制来吸引民间资本发展风险投资。     

Inequality of opportunity and household risky asset investment: Evidence from panel data in China

Based on the household panel data over three waves in China, this paper investigates how inequality of opportunity of a region affects household risky asset investment. The empirical results show that inequality of opportunity raises both the probability and the share of household risky asset investment in the region. Our key results are robust to a series of sensitivity checks. The heterogeneity analyses tell us that richer and more educated households seem to be affected more by inequality of opportunity of the county they reside in. The paper also tests several possible channels behind the observed relationship, showing that the following channels help bring upon this effect: increasing material aspiration, changing risk preferences, and reducing household expenditures.     

Are the actual and intended sources of financial knowledge the same? Evidence from Japan

The recent prolonged period of low economic growth and low interest rates in Japan demands that Japanese households invest in risky assets to accumulate sufficient retirement savings. In so doing, they acquire financial knowledge on these risky assets, typically from financial experts or salespersons in financial institutions. However, they may not necessarily be content with their current sources of financial knowledge because depending on their stage in the life cycle, they require different types of financial knowledge, usually from a variety of sources. Unfortunately, because of limitations in the data available, few studies have investigated whether the actual and intended sources of financial knowledge are the same. To address this research gap, this paper uses a Japanese household survey from 2010 to 2017, which provides unique information on the actual and intended sources of financial knowledge, and obtains two interesting results. First, a household’s actual sources of financial knowledge typically differ from its intended sources. More specifically, 33 % of households choosing financial institutions and experts and 52 % of households choosing financial institutions as their actual sources have a different intended source. Second, the discrepancy between actual and intended sources appears to relate to household demographic characteristics. Among those households choosing financial institutions and experts as their actual source of financial knowledge, 14 % choosing financial institutions as their intended source tend to have a lower level of financial knowledge and educational attainment. These results suggest that they have some difficulty understanding the advice of financial advisers. Among households choosing financial institutions as their actual source of financial knowledge, 26 % choosing financial institutions and experts as their intended source tend to have a larger amount of financial assets, better financial knowledge, and a preference for investing in risky assets; however, they also tend to be younger. This suggests they might want to obtain financial knowledge from financial experts to purchase risky financial assets as they age. While the study does not provide any causal evidence, the results suggest that understanding the reasons for any discrepancy in the actual and intended sources of financial knowledge may help financial institutions provide better services to these customers.     

Does Foreign Direct Investment Provide Desirable Development Finance？ The Case of China

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is often considered as a cost-effective and risk-reducing source for development finance. This paper,however,shows that FDI finance often entails underestimated risks and costs. FDI might react sensitively to business cycles and might not be as "permanent" as conventionally believed. FDI might also accelerate other forms of capital flow in times of financial difficulties and,hence,destabilize financial order. In addition to the risks,compensations to FDI and the high import-dependency of FDI-related trade lead to a considerable drain on the balance of payments. Moreover,the reliance on foreign capital for development finance is equivalent to building a Ponzi financing scheme and,therefore,is unsustainable. Given the fact that FDI financing is risky and costly and China does not lack savings,it is suggested in the present paper that China's efforts in attracting FDI should not aim at external capital provisioning.     

Impact of international expansion strategy on the performance of Japanese banks

The effect of cross-border diversification on bank performance is part of the broader debate on how multinational banking and financial integration affect the global financial economy. Previous studies that examined this relationship present mixed results - namely that cross-border diversification improves bank performance but also increases bank risks that could lead to systemic failure. Even so, this line of debate has not been examined in the case of Japanese banks conducting international operations. The present study questions whether cross-border diversification improves the performance of Japanese banks and to what extent each cross-border expansion activity affects bank performance. The latter was largely ignored in previous studies. Our results show that cross-border diversification improves cost efficiency but decreases/harms the profit efficiency of the banks analyzed. In addition, we find that the expansion of foreign assets and foreign branch operations present funding risks and operational inefficiency. We offer two important recommendations. First, as a major player in international lending, the current expansion activities of Japanese banks require close monitoring and supervision to prevent systemic risk resulting from aggressive and risky overseas expansion activities. Second, the current expansion strategies of Japanese banks, especially the expansion of overseas assets and branch operations (retail banking), should be re-examined.     

中国的影子银行会成为另一个次债?

最近几年中国的影子银行或信托融资业务快速发展,反映了利率市场化的实际表现,不过这些业务的潜在风险也引发了对中国经济增长硬着陆的担忧。向公众销售理财产品的信托融资和由金融机构作为中介的委托贷款两种融资方式具有较大的潜在风险。尽管个别违约可能会引发广泛的赎回,但中国的信托融资尚不致形成"资产价格下跌—不断恶化的资产负债表—被迫抛售资产"之间的恶性循环。中国的影子银行也还不会导致系统性金融风险,但完善影子银行业务的监管已经成为一项紧迫的任务。     

The Role of Happiness in Financial Decisions: Evidence from Financial Portfolio Choice and Five European Countries

This paper investigates the role of happiness in portfolio choices. Previous literature has only emphasized the reverse association. An additional novelty of the paper is that the analysis focuses on a wider country sample, while the literature has mainly focused on the U.S. and U.K. economies. Based on micro data from five European countries, i.e., France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and the U.K., spanning the period 2009–2014, the results show that higher levels of happiness lead to higher shares of risky assets in financial portfolios. The findings survive a number of robustness tests. When asset holdings are disaggregated by the extent of the risk associated with them, this effect remains only for safe and low-risk assets, whereas the effect for assets with higher risks is the reverse.

     

Optimal portfolio choice when utility depends on health

This paper examines optimal portfolio choice when health can change the shape of the utility function. If adverse health shocks threaten to increase the marginal utility of consumption, that is, if they are Edgeworth–Pareto substitutes, risky health prompts individuals to lower their risky portfolio shares. Health naturally becomes more uncertain with age, so this theory might help to explain why aging investors gradually decrease their risk exposure even when asset returns display no mean reversion and relative risk aversion is constant.     

审计人员在企业并购中应关注的问题及审计风险的探讨

企业并购是一项高风险的经济活动,审计人员必须关注并购环境、企业的优劣、收益与成本、换股比例、会计处理等因素对并购的影响及审计中可能导致的风险,有的放矢地加强防范,控制风险,提高审计质量.     

PPP模式下保障性住房建设公私部门风险认识差异度研究

将PPP模式引入保障性住房领域一定程度上能够起到缓解财政资金压力的作用，但风险分担问题抑制了私营机构参与项目的积极性，不利于公共部门和私营机构合作的稳定性。风险分担问题产生的原因之一是双方对风险的认识存在差异，因此探究双方对风险认识的差异性有助于提高双方在风险谈判时的效率，形成双方认可、具有可执行性的风险分担结果。在现有研究基础上设计PPP模式下保障性住房风险清单，探究分析公共部门和私营机构风险认识差异度及原因。采用问卷调查法，运用Ｔ检验法进行数据处理。结果显示。在全寿命周期中，对于风险危害程度，双方对政治风险、市场需求变化风险、市场收益不足、腐败风险认识差异度较大；对于风险发生概率，双方对市场需求变化、项目唯一性风险、政府价格限制、经营者经验不足、政府干预、政府信用、合作冲突风险、腐败风险认识差异度较大。剖析双方风险认识差异产生的原因，主要因为双方受自身角色的限制，从自身的利益出发，评价、认识风险的角度稍显片面，表明了双方的信任度亟待加强，公共部门应该扮演好监督管理者的角色，给予私营机构充分的运营管理自主权，尊重契约精神，加强制度保障。     

我国电信设备商在跨国投资中的环境风险分析及对策

环境风险在国际投资中与其他风险相比,可以说是跨国投资所面临的最具威胁的风险。本文首先分析我国电信设备商在跨国投资中的环境风险,主要包括跨国投资中出现的政治风险,技术风险,法律风险和文化风险,针对这些风险,提出一定的对策。     

Earnings Quality and the Equity Risk Premium: A Benchmark Model*

This paper solves a model that links earnings quality to the equity risk premium in an infinite‐horizon consumption capital asset pricing model (CAPM) economy. In the model, risk‐averse traders hold diversified portfolios consisting of risk‐free bonds and shares of many risky firms. When constructing their portfolios, traders rely on noisy reported earnings and dividend payments for information about the risky firms. The main new element of the model is an explicit representation of earnings quality that includes hidden accrual errors that reverse in subsequent periods. The model demonstrates that earnings quality magnifies fundamental risk. Absent fundamental risk, poor earnings quality cannot affect the equity risk premium. Moreover, only the systematic (undiversified) component of earnings‐quality risk contributes to the equity risk premium. In contrast, all components of earnings‐quality risk affect earnings capitalization factors. The model ties together consumption CAPM and accounting‐based valuation research into one price formula linking earnings quality to the equity risk premium and earnings capitalization factors.     

不确定性风险对企业投资的影响机制分析——基于金融市场摩擦的间接渠道视角

现有研究表明,不确定性风险会通过直接渠道和间接渠道影响企业投资,但着重分析间接渠道的文献较少。文章以1994-2018年中国沪深A股上市公司的财务数据、股票交易数据和中国经济政策不确定性指数为样本,在控制住直接渠道的影响后,实证检验了不确定性风险如何通过金融市场摩擦机制间接影响微观企业的投资行为。研究发现:不确定性风险会通过金融市场摩擦机制来显著增加企业融资成本,降低企业融资数量;且金融市场摩擦机制间接降低企业投资的中介效应显著。在异质性企业的对比中,成本效应对所有企业的影响效果差异不大;而相对于低杠杆、国有化和大规模的企业,数量效应对高杠杆、民营和小规模等高风险企业的影响效果更大。这说明,成本效应和数量效应的影响是系统性的,但数量效应更具结构性特征。     

奇瑞汽车由单一品牌向多品牌的战略转移

面对国际全球金融危机对汽车产业形成致命打击、汽车产业濒临严峻挑战的形势之下,奇瑞公司逆势而上,做出如此极具风险的战略转移决策,即从2009年起实施单一品牌向多品牌的战略转移。文章试图在对品牌战略理论进行梳理的基础上,就奇瑞实施品牌战略转移的动因进行深层次分析,探讨奇瑞多品牌战略所面临的主要风险,并提出奇瑞多品牌战略的实施构想。     

上市旅游企业财务风险评价分析的影响因素——以9家上市旅游企业为例

上市旅游企业的财务风险评价分析对企业的健康经营十分重要。企业的发展极易受市场环境、政策因素以及社会环境等影响,产生明显的财务风险和经营风险。因此,基于财务风险评价理论,以9家上市旅游企业的财务数据为例,采用因子分析法实现对数据的降维提取。结果表明,企业的盈利能力对企业的财务风险影响最大。从风险评价的角度提出财务风险识别与控制措施。研究成果可为上市旅游企业有效地识别风险、合理地规避风险、妥善地处理风险提供有益的指导。     

石油项目投资的风险评估

石油项目是典型的风险项目,石油项目的投资风险在石油项目投资的筹划、实施过程中是客观存在的,风险分析是石油项目评估的重要内容之一。本文在分析石油风险因素的基础上建立了石油项目风险评估指标体系,用层次分析法确定风险指标权重,再运用灰色评估方法对石油项目投资的风险进行了定量评估,其结果能为石油项目投资提供决策参考依据。     

The Importance of Account Relations when Responding to Interim Audit Testing Results*

Auditors are expected to plan and adapt audit programs in response to changes in risk associated with each client. Results in the existing research have been mixed regarding whether auditors respond to changes in risk. Two possible explanations for the lack of responsiveness to changes in risk found in the existing research are that auditors succumb to profit pressure, and that researchers only analyze responses in the risky accounts without considering related accounts. This paper experimentally tests how auditors respond to changes in risk of material misstatement identified by means of interim audit testing results. The response to changes in risk of material misstatement is analyzed using planned audit hours across related financial statement accounts and at varying levels of profit pressure. Results indicate the following primary findings: (a) auditors respond to changes in risk of material misstatement by increasing planned audit hours in accounts related to the risky account, and (b) profit pressure does not affect the auditor's response to changes in risk. These results indicate that the relations between accounts must be considered in order to identify the auditors' response to changes in risk of material misstatement. In addition, the results are consistent with audit firms decreasing the emphasis on profit pressure due to the current importance that the market places on audit quality.     

关于信用违约互换的研究

作为一种套期保值工具而产生的CDS,通过近几年来在西方金融市场中的实践,已变异成为投机性强甚至带有危险性的金融工具。文章对信用违约互换产生的背景、发展以及其危害进行了阐述,并介绍了CDS的国内外研究现状。以此说明中国在引进CDS中一定要多加注意,防范金融风险。     

中国企业海外并购的税收风险与控制

随着中国经济的持续发展,中国企业在海外并购中扮演着越来越重要的地位。但是,海外并购存在着许多的风险。其中,税收风险是其中一个不容小觑的方面。对海外并购的税收成本进行剖析,企业主要面临着所得税缴纳的税收成本。而在海外并购中,所得税的缴纳主要存在跨国重组以及国际双重征税的两个重要问题。分别是跨境重组和国际双重征税问题。针对这两个问题,企业在税法风险控制方面要注意利用重组优惠和避免双重征税。在维护我国税收利益的同时,降低税收成本。     

Strategic Asset Allocation for China＇s Foreign Reserves： A Copula Approach

In this paper, we study strategic asset allocation for China＇s foreign reserves using a risk- based approach. Four aspects of the risk management are investigated： an investment universe, dependence structure, allocation strategies under risk minimization and trade-off between risks and returns. A regime-switching copula model is developed to investigate the dynamic dependence between assets. One regime emphasizes a short-term safe asset and the other regime emphasizes a long-term safe asset. The optimal allocation is derived following two strategies： risk minimization and trade-off between risks and returns in utility maximization with disappointment avoidance, lf the central bank focuses solely on risk minimization, the asymmetries in the asset return dependence encourage the flight to safety. However, if higher risks are allowed in exchange for higher returns, even the exchange is very conservative, and the asymmetries would discourage the flight to safety. Therefore, we suggest that China should mitigate its flight to safety after 2008 and increase holdings of short-term bank deposits, long-term treasury bonds and euro bonds.