Measuring the structural determinants of urban travel demand

To be best prepared for tomorrow's cities we need to forecast urban travel demand. To this end, this study calibrates an urban travel demand model, which uses the principal structural variables that have been identified in the literature. It uses a robust econometric method, which has been little applied in the sphere of transportation. The results show that two variables stand out from the others: the user cost of transport – by private car and public transport – and urban density. It is surprising, but explicable with the available data, that the demand functions estimated for a given country are independent from the group of countries to which it belongs.     

Estimating social travel demand of senior citizens in the Netherlands

Like many other countries, the Netherlands is experiencing a sharp rise in the ageing population. As age increases, people’s mobility may decrease. However, older people have more leisure time compared to their younger (working) counterparts, and potentially spend more time on social activities. Therefore, this group can possibly increase social travel demand. However, to date, the travel demand for social activities of senior citizens has received only little attention. This paper studies trip-making for social purposes, with a special focus on the demographic ageing factors. Using social activity diary data, models are estimated to predict the number of social trips, the travel distance and mode of transport for social trips. The results indicate that the elderly of today seem to be as mobile as their younger counterparts with respect to the number of social trips. High education and involvement in clubs on average result in more social trips and full time work is found to result in fewer social trips. With regard to trip distance the results show that the average travel distance does not decrease as people get older. Full time work is found to result in longer social trips. Shorter trips were found for people in urban as well as rural areas. Trips for the purpose of visiting or joint activities tend to be longer than average. With regard to transport mode choice the results indicate that older seniors (75+) are less likely to choose the bicycle, relative to driving. No other significant age effects were found. Significant effects were found for gender, household structure, education level, car ownership, having a disability, urban density, distance and the purpose of the social activity.     

Determinants of air travel demand in Middle Income Countries

The aim of this paper is to calculate the effects of air travel demand determinants in Middle Income Countries (MICs). Through static and dynamic panel data models from 32 countries during the period from 2002 to 2008, we found that the income elasticity is the most important determinant and that it is slightly higher than one. Income growth multiplied by income elasticity accounts for 75 percent of total passenger growth. Public policies such as an open skies agreements with the European Union have a positive effect on passenger growth, whereas structural changes, such as Low Cost Carrier (LCC) growth, have a marginal effect.     

Analysing Chinese citizens' intentions of outbound travel: a machine learning approach

Due to the tremendous expansion of Chinese outbound travel market, it is of great significance to identify the characteristics of potential Chinese outbound tourists so as to develop targeted marketing strategies. As both extrinsic and intrinsic characteristics of individuals are important in influencing their decision-making process, this study explores potential Chinese outbound tourists from these two aspects. Demographic and psychographic factors, as the proxy of extrinsic and intrinsic characteristics, respectively, are incorporated into this study to construct the relationship between tourists' characteristics and their intentions of outbound travel. An advanced machine learning approach, called twice-learning, is employed for modelling in this study. As an intelligent data analysis tool, this method is able to construct models that can provide insight into the ground-truth relationships hidden beneath the data in an essentially comprehensible way, without being limited by the typical assumptions held by the traditional data analysis methods. By applying this method, the important personal factors that influence Chinese citizens' intentions of outbound travel are detected, and the typical groups of potential Chinese outbound tourists are characterised. The findings would be beneficial for destination marketers to develop marketing strategies on positioning and advertising which are tailored to potential Chinese outbound travel market.     

Design of limited-stop bus service with capacity constraint and stochastic travel time

This paper develops a mathematical model for the optimal stopping design of limited-stop bus service, which allows each bus vehicle to skip some stops. To better reflect the reality, this paper considers the vehicle capacity and stochastic travel time. Also, vehicles are all allowed to skip stops whereas any stop is not allowed to be skipped by two consecutive vehicles. A hybrid artificial bee colony (ABC) and Monte Carlo method is developed to solve the optimal stopping strategy. Finally, the model and solution method are validated by a numerical example, and a sensitivity analysis is performed on the passenger demand.     

The influence of neighborhood environment and household travel interactions on school travel behavior: an exploration using geographically-weighted models

Professional and popular interest in active school transportation (walking and cycling) is matched by an emerging literature on this topic. This paper explores school travel behavior of 11-year old children in Toronto, Canada. In particular, the effects of the neighborhood environment and caregiver-child travel interactions on travel mode choice were studied. Results indicate that the built environment near both home and school locations was associated with the odds of walking. However, predicted built environment effects were less accurate in some neighborhoods. Availability of adults at the time of school travel likely encouraged driving. School transportation interventions that broadly consider school and neighborhood-oriented policies and enable independent mobility may increase walking rates. Presence of spatial autocorrelation in the prevalence of walking suggests that more research is required to understand inter-household similarities in behaviors that are spatially structured.     

Modelling dependence between tourism demand and exchange rate using the copula-based GARCH model

This paper investigates dependence between tourism demand and exchange rate, using the case of China, and from a new perspective by using copula–GARCH models. The empirical results show that the volatility of exchange rate is not a determinant factor in fluctuation of China's inbound tourism demand from the countries being studied. Furthermore, only Russia exhibits risk-adverse behaviour with extreme SUR depreciation, or CNY appreciation associated with an extreme decline in arrivals. Third, introducing the tail dependence and dynamic dependence between growth rates of tourism demand and exchange rate add much to the explanatory ability of the model. The findings of this study have important implications for destination manager and travel agent as it helps to understand the impact of exchange rates on China inbound tourism demand and provide a complementary academic approach on evaluating the role of exchange rates in the international tourism demand model.     

Forecasting the demand for an employee Park and Ride service using commuters' stated choices

This paper uses Stated Choice (SC) data to forecast the demand for an employee Park and Ride service. Since it is well known that SC data contain sources of variation not present in Revealed Preference data we pay special attention to the scaling of the SC model. The results show that the modal shift away from parking-on site will be small unless the new service is accompanied by measures aimed at making parking on-site less attractive such as introducing parking charges.     

The decline of the traditional travel agent model

This article analyzes the struggle between traditional travel agencies and airlines to gain control of the Spanish airline services market. Also analyzed is the strong emergence of a third player, online travel portals that act as online travel agencies. We use a multinomial logit model to study the influence of 27 socio-economic factors and trip attributes on passenger purchase channel choice. The results show that the profile of a passenger who has a greater likelihood of making his/her bookings online is that of a young person, a student or educated to a high level, a habitual traveler, booking a simple journey and using an LCC. The factors linked to an increased likelihood of making purchases by phone include: being male, middle-aged, on a business or short trip, and the passengers usually use a travel agency. Finally, passengers who are over 65 years of age, with a lower academic level, who use a travel agency and are going to make a more complicated journey, are more likely to purchase their tickets in-store.     

Entry effect of low-cost carriers on airport-pairs demand model using market concentration approach

The trend of open sky policies and growth of low-cost airlines, the topic of airport-pairs demand is gradually being addressed in the golden aviation circle of Northeast Asia. The variety of flight services among the four major metropolises with dual-airport systems leads to a competition-cooperation relationship existing between various airports and airlines. Therefore, this study investigates the causal relationship between the route-level passenger demand and influential factors using aggregate data collected through website observations. The empirical study focuses on direct flights of airport-pair routes among Taipei, Shanghai, Seoul, and Tokyo. Results of the passenger regression model indicate that frequency, code-share, and morning flights have positive impacts on increasing passenger numbers for airlines. Further, the market concentration degree of Herfindahl-Hirschman Index and entry effect of low-cost carriers are important for the route-level passenger demand. In addition, routes with departures and arrivals in hub airports have a considerable attraction relative to other airport-pair routes. Finally, the proposed passenger model performs well in predicting market share, especially for routes with high demand.     

Indexing the contribution of household travel behaviour to sustainability

This paper describes the application of a robust policy relevant methodology for the assessment of travel behaviour in terms of a household sustainability index (HSI). Results from a survey of 1000 households in the Belfast (The capital city of Northern Ireland.) City Region (radius of 50 km) show that householders fail to reconcile their lifestyle and travel patterns with sustainability and moreover the popular trend for the provision of homes in suburbanised settlements is counterproductive in terms of sustainability. From a travel behaviour perspective, brownfield sites are shown to be more sustainable than suburbanised settlements and that suburbanisation in general is prejudicial to sustainable travel albeit that established residents behave more sustainably than their newcomer counterparts.     

Impacts of videoconferencing on business travel: the Norwegian experience

This paper assesses the impact of videoconferencing on business air travel. Results suggest that videoconferencing has only a limited effect on business air travel, with substitution rates of 2.5–3.5%. Thus, within the Norwegian market, videoconferencing is not considered a serious threat to the airline industry. The enterprises considered in this survey indicate low sensitivity to the threat of terror and the instability that has followed September 11 in the US. In Norway, air travel recovered after 4–5 months. Videoconferencing is expected to grow but remain supplementary to personal contact.     

Climate change and the air travel decisions of UK tourists

Whilst much effort has been made to communicate to the public the importance of reducing carbon footprints in the home, one area where emissions are growing rapidly and little attempt has been made to increase consumer understanding of the impacts is holidays, particularly those involving air travel. Using focus group research, this paper explores tourists’ awareness of the impacts of travel on climate change, examines the extent to which climate change features in holiday travel decisions and identifies some of the barriers to the adoption of less carbon-intensive tourism practices. The findings suggest that many tourists do not consider climate change when planning their holidays. The failure of tourists to engage with the climate change impact of holidays, combined with significant barriers to behavioural change, presents a considerable challenge in moving the tourism industry onto a sustainable emissions path. The findings are discussed in relation to theoretical perspectives from psychology and sociology.     

Understanding the urban travel attitudes and behavior of Tbilisi residents

In recent decades the public transport network in Tbilisi, Georgia has decayed, while the number of private automobiles has increased dramatically. This study seeks to expand our understanding of the Tbilisi population’s urban transport attitudes and behavior. It elaborates on the perceived strengths, weaknesses, and potentials of the public transport system, and seeks to understand the reasons for the increased use of private automobiles. A questionnaire survey was conducted among Tbilisi car drivers (n=159) and public transport users (n=163). The results show that most of the survey respondents preferred to use a private car and avoid using public transport. Particularly important factors include time issues such as schedules and frequency, plus comfort and safety issues. Tbilisi residents value their time and want to use it efficiently. Changing residents’ travel behavior will require making the public transport options competitive with the perceived advantages of the car. The study offers recommendations for more effective urban transport policy, including incentives to encourage greater use of public transport in Tbilisi.     

The impact of the Internet on human activity–travel patterns: analysis of gender differences using multi-group structural equation models

The widespread use of the Internet for conducting various types of activities may be leading to considerable change in people’s activity–travel patterns. Past studies, however, have left many issues unaddressed. Using an Internet-activity diary dataset and multi-group structural equation modeling, this study examines the complex interactions between different types of Internet and physical activities, with a special focus on gender differences and Internet maintenance and leisure activities. The results indicate that the impacts of Internet activities on people’s activity–travel patterns are significantly different across gender. In general, Internet use for maintenance purposes has a greater impact on women’s activity–travel in the physical world, while Internet use for leisure purposes affects men’s physical activities and travel to a greater extent. Further, breaking Internet activities down into different categories reveals some hidden patterns that would not have been detected if these different types of Internet activities were lumped together as a single category.     

铁路职工违章违纪问题的分析与对策

职工劳动纪律和作业纪律松弛直接威胁运输安全。在调查铁路职工违章违纪问题现状的基础上,分析了违章违纪问题产生的7方面原因和5方面心理状态,提出从建设安全文化、加强教育培训、坚持以人为本、实施科学防控等方面,采取综合手段,努力实现违章违纪问题的根本性好转。     

Traffic exposure near the Los Angeles–Long Beach port complex: using GPS-enhanced tracking to assess the implications of unreported travel and locations

Traffic exposure assessments could misclassify the extent and locations of exposure if traditional recall surveys and self-reported travel diaries do not record all participant activities. The Harbor Communities Time Location Study (HCTLS) examines the nature, extent and implications of underreported locations/trips in a case study which used portable Global Positioning Systems (GPS) devices to track the diurnal patterns and traffic exposure of 47 residents of communities near the Los Angeles–Long Beach port complex. Participants were similar to adults nationwide in time spent indoors, in-vehicle, and outdoors, but spent more time indoors at home (78% vs. 66%). Overall, participants did not report nearly half (49%) of the locations and trips identified in GPS-enhanced data on their activity diaries, resulting in about 3 h/day in unreported locations and 0.6 h/day in unreported trips. The probability of a location/trip being underreported was systematically correlated with participant and location/trip characteristics. Self-reported data missed about 50 min of heightened air pollution exposures during the 5 h/day on average participants spent in high-traffic areas and about 30 min during the 4 h/day near truck routes. GPS-enhanced methods provide opportunities to more precisely characterize exposure periods and tools to identify facility, roadway, and land use types of the greatest concern for mitigation efforts.     

Congestion pricing in the absence of demand functions

This paper enhances a trial-and-error implementation scheme of marginal-cost pricing on a transportation network, in the absence of explicit expression of the demand function. Link tolls and link flows are updated for the next trial with the revealed link flows for given current trial toll pattern. The method is quite simple, requiring only some function evaluations. Also, the step size is not required to be square summable, thereby leading to the improvement of the efficiency of the algorithm. The global convergence of the method is proved and some numerical results are reported to illustrate its performance.     

铁路站段办公自动化系统实施分析

随着铁路企业信息化建设力度的加大,铁路站段的办公自动化系统的实施将有效提高工作效率和管理水平。以集宁南站为例,对办公自动化系统的建设要求、功能设计、系统环境和系统的管理等进行了分析论述。