The economy of Spain in the euro-zone before and after the crisis of 2008

In common with the other periphery countries that joined the euro-zone in 1998–2000, Spain enjoyed ten years of economic prosperity, essentially financed by foreign debt. The financial crisis of 2008 revealed deep structural problems in the euro-zone, but also among Spain's fiscally autonomous regions. Spain's experience differs from the financial problems faced by the other European periphery countries in details, but Spain's ongoing financial crisis highlights the fundamental problem of the euro-zone. It lacks a euro-bond backed by credible commitment of euro-zone wide revenues. Moreover, Spain's difficulties in dealing with its autonomous regions highlight the intractable fiscal problems facing the euro-zone.     

Predicting a recovery date from the economic crisis of 2008

Predicting a recovery from a crisis is always difficult, but it is particularly so with the 2008 crisis in the United States. How could a small segment of the financial markets known as subprime credit bring down the world’s largest economy into the worst recession since WWII? The resulting conflicts in policy responses are so severe that the short-term objective (recovery) clashes with the longer-term and more structural goals (governance, regulations, technology). This and the enormous uncertainties caused by it add to the difficulties to predict the pace of recovery. While the economic turnaround depends on consumers’ decision to spend and business’ decision to invest and hire, in an uncertain situation such decisions can only be taken as a result of market players’ perceptions of opportunity that depend on their emotional state and confidence. When the latter produces spontaneous urge to action (‘animal spirits’), the recovery process accelerates. Thus, the appropriate model to predict recovery should be able to incorporate such perceptions factors. By identifying and prioritizing economic and policy factors, it is shown how such a model, the Analytic Network Process (ANP), can be used to make the prediction of the recovery time of the US economy. The forecast was made during Spring 2009 by the author working with participants in a seminar of “Economics of Financial Crisis” at Cornell University. We used an expert judgment approach within the framework of a decision theory model, based on the ANP structure that captures the interplay between financial market, housing sector, and market confidence, all of which are influenced by a range of policies. It is estimated that a real sustainable recovery will begin around late July or early August 2010. While a quicker recovery is possible given the enormous size of fiscal stimulus, monetary injection and unprecedented measures of qualitative easing, it is our conjecture that the temporary nature of all these measures will make such a quick turn-around unsustainable (a double-dip recession). When sensitivity analysis was performed, it was found that altering the priorities of the policies, and their interactions with the aggregate demand components, would not significantly change the estimated time to recovery. This stability of the prediction is due to the overriding importance of restoring confidence, making the other factors less important.     

Assessing the impact of crime on the economic performance: the case of central america

Crime is obviously a menace to economic growth and progress, but to acutely understand the enormity of its impact on economic performance for effective policy action, requires a credible means of measurement. Given the crime notoriety of the most of Central America and the struggling state of their economies, this article attempts to discern from econometric evaluation and analyses, the calculable economic impact of crime on the region’s economic progress. From analyses of results, we find the model to be credible and useful following its provision of a much more accurate degree to which crime affects economic performance in Central America, which we find critical to guide policy measures.     

Training and commitment in a German manufacturing company during the post-2008 crisis: a case of internal flexicurity

Studies on the links between training and organizational commitment have only looked at professional and managerial workers, mostly in the U.S. This paper focuses on a German manufacturing company that employed many blue-collar workers and offered generous training opportunities during short-time work in the post-2008 crisis. In an analysis based on employee survey data, only training in job-specific skills and training in skills usable outside of work were found to be associated positively with organizational commitment. The findings suggest that employer-provided training programs may be part of a model that achieves internal flexicurity in economies such as Germany.     

The economic impact of migration: productivity analysis for Spain and the UK

Over the past 20?years labour has become increasingly mobile and whilst employment and earnings effects in host countries have been extensively analysed, the implications for firm and industry performance have received far less attention. This paper explores the direct economic consequences of immigration on host nations?? productivity performance at a sectoral level in two very different European countries, Spain and the UK. Whilst the UK has traditionally seen substantial immigration, for Spain the phenomenon is much more recent. Our findings from a growth accounting analysis show that migration has made a negative contribution to labour productivity growth in Spain and a negative but negligible contribution in the UK. This difference is driven by a positive impact from migrant labour quality in the UK. This finding broadly holds across all sectors, but we note considerable variation in magnitudes. Labour productivity growth has a neutral contribution from migrant labour in construction and personal services in the UK, whilst in every case in Spain the effect is negative, most strongly in agriculture. Using an econometric approach to production function estimation we observe a positive long term effect on total factor productivity from migrant workers in the UK and a negative effect in Spain. Our findings suggest that either the UK is better at assimilating migrants or is more selective in terms of who is permitted to migrate.     

Recessionary bundles: HR practices in the Irish economic crisis

The HR practices adopted by firms in response to the current deep and prolonged recession have received little attention in the literature. There are reasons for supposing that firms will adopt HR practices in bundles in responding to the recession in order to benefit from technical and behavioural complementarities. Drawing on a nationally representative survey, the article investigates the bundles of HR practices adopted by firms during the Irish recession and examines influences on the bundles that are evident. The article contributes to HRM theory by testing different views on HR bundles likely to be adopted in recessionary conditions and by moving beyond the prevailing focus in HRM on HR bundles adopted by firms in steady‐state business conditions.     

The market for street crime: An economic analysis of victim-offender interaction

This paper views the economic explanation of crime rates from a new perspective by explicitly deriving an economic model of the behavior of potential victims and considering the interaction of the behavior of potential victims with the behavior of offenders. Crime is produced through offenders supplying time in search of victims and victims demanding to expose themselves to the environment. A model is set up in which the crime rate, the probability of being a victim per unit of exposure time, and the probability of finding a victim per unit of offenders' search time are simultaneously determined. The model leads us to distinguish the “real” crime rate (the probability of being a victim per unit of exposure time) from the “nominal” crime rate (the number of crimes per capita). The nominal crime rate can be inversely related to the real crime rate.     

Measuring crisis risk using conditional copulas: An empirical analysis of the 2008 shipping crisis

The shipping crisis starting in 2008 was characterized by sharply decreasing freight rates and sharply increasing financing costs. We analyze the dependence structure of these two risk factors employing a conditional copula model. As conditioning factors we use the supply and demand of seaborne transportation. We find that crisis risk strongly increased already about 1 year before the actual crisis outburst and that the shipping crisis was predominantly driven by an oversupply of transport capacity. Therefore, market participants could have prevented or alleviated the consequences of the crisis by reducing the ordering and financing of new vessels.     

Economic crisis and oppositional movements in the USA

Une stratégie qui se dit neuve pour affronter la crise économique en cours semble avoir provoqué un nombre ? effets négatifs aux Etats-Unis (et ailleurs). Un taux de chǒmage élevé, une inégalité croissante, ainsi que des services publics qui se détériorent, sont les résultats ? un effort de re-capitalisation du capitalisme achevé par la promotion ? investissements et de profits privés. Ceci est le cadre pour un développement possible ? agitation ouvrière et de mouvements sociaux urbains. Les perspectives limités de beaucoup de mouvements sociaux urbains américains ne veulent nécessairement pas dire qu'ils manquent de signification. L'époque de la réforme structurelle doit ětre gagnée; elle est rarement déja acquise.     

Corruption and economic resilience: recovery from the financial crisis in western economies

We consider the resilience of a group of 20 Western economies after the financial crisis of the late 2000s. We measure resilience by the growth of real GDP between 2007, the previous peak level, and 2015. The countries exhibit a broad range of experience, from a rise in GDP of 18 per cent in Australia to a fall of 26 per cent in Greece. A substantial proportion of the differences in growth rates can be accounted for by just two variables: the perceived level of corruption and membership of the Eurozone. The euro did have a negative impact on the recovery paths of the Mediterranean economies (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain), but their perceived corruption scores in 2007 had a bigger impact, especially on the first three of these economies.     

Riding the typhoon: the HR response to the economic crisis in Hong Kong

The financial crisis that hit Asia in 1997 was the economic equivalent of a typhoon. It came suddenly, leaving much destruction in its wake, in the form of bankruptcies and business closures, retrenchment, wage cuts and ultimately high unemployment. Much has been written about the financial, economic and social ramifications of the crisis. This paper takes a critical look at the human resource practices adopted by an industry that appears to have been particularly affected by the subsequent economic downturn – the hotel industry. We consider how managers responded to the economic turbulence by confronting the apparently dichotomous pressures of tightening structure and managerial control, on the one hand, and the need to permit the flexibility that would facilitate change and innovativeness, on the other. Findings from a sample of hotels suggest that, while managers recognize the need to allow flexibility that would foster employee creativity, there remain deep-seated cultural and other factors that militate against such flexibility. This casts doubt on the organizations' ability to generate and sustain employee creativity and a climate in which employees can respond to unexpected challenges as they struggle to satisfy equally unusual customer demands.     

Young people living as couples: How women's labour supply is adapting to the crisis. Spain as a case study

In this paper, we focus on the effects of the Great Recession on the decisions of young women regarding their labour supply. Considering the profound effect of the economic recession on the Spanish labour market, and in particular on the labour supply of young people, the focus of the empirical part of this paper is on Spain. Using EU-SILC 2007 and 2012 micro data for Spain, the labour supply models of women are estimated by age group, with a particular focus on the 20 to 29 and 30 to 39 age bands, in order to establish how young women living in couples exhibit different labour supply propensities according to their partner's labour market status. Correction is made for the non-random selection of women living in couples in the younger age groups. This first analytical step reveals a negative effect on the likelihood of forming a new household in the context of precarious employment conditions. Analytical results regarding the labour supply of women by age group confirmed a discouraging effect of young children on the labour supply of the youngest mothers, as well as a positive effect from being the owner of a house purchased under mortgage.The literature shows that different effects can be at work within the crisis: an added worker effect (AWE), which is countercyclical labour supply behaviour involving an increase in individual labour supply in response to transitory shocks in the partner's earnings, and a procyclical discouraged worker effect. The resulting estimations of the present study suggest an AWE in 2012 for young women living in couples. While in 2012 the discouragement effect was only prevalent for women over 40, in 2007 it was also prevalent among younger women. Women's higher propensity to enter the labour market when their partner becomes unemployed or is persistently unemployed, coupled with their likelihood to be inactive in the presence of young children, would suggest a need for labour market policies targeted towards young women. Childcare facilities could mitigate the latter effect and produce a more continuous work profile, avoiding the negative effects of work experience interruptions on labour supply during the female lifecycle.     

An assessment of another decade of capital controls in Colombia: 1998–2008

We explore the effectiveness of capital controls in Colombia. We analyze the impact of administrative restrictions to capital flows on aggregate capital flows, the composition of capital flows, the real exchange rate, and economic activity using restricted versions of vector error correction models (VEC) that control for exogenous global financial conditions. The models are estimated using monthly data ranging from August of 1998 to May of 2008. In addition we estimate GARCH models to identify if capital controls have had relevant impacts on the volatility of the nominal exchange rate and of other relevant asset prices. These models are estimated using weekly data covering the same time period. Results suggest that the capital controls used since 1998 have been ineffective in reducing capital flows and the trend of the Colombian peso to appreciate. In addition there is no evidence suggesting a change in the composition of capital flows induced by capital controls. We find some evidence in favor of capital controls reducing nominal exchange rate volatility at high frequencies.     

股市第一案的罪与罚--从"中科创业操纵证券交易价格案" 看我国证券法律责任制度

2003年4月1日,北京市第二中级人民法院对有“中国股市第一案”之称的中科创业操纵证券交易价格案进行了一审公开宣判。这标志着我国反对股市黑幕进入了一个新的阶段。那么,法律是怎么审判“庄家”的?操纵证券交易价格应该承担什么样的责任呢?在股价操纵案中如何保护投资者的利益呢?……     

国有企业经营者违法行为的经济学分析

国有企业经营者的违法行为屡有发生,文章从经济学角度分析了国有企业经营者违法的原因主要在于:寻租的可能性、监督机制的缺乏和国有企业的特殊体制,并针对性地提出了政策建议。     

The impact of the economic crisis on the (in)efficiency of public Higher Education institutions in Southern Europe: The case of Spanish universities

The evaluation of university efficiency in Europe began timidly when the European Higher Education Area (EHEA) was created. However, this issue is currently becoming increasingly important in Southern European countries, where the limitation of public funding following the economic crisis in 2008 has put greater pressure on their public universities to achieve excellence and improve competitiveness. In this context, the goals of this paper are: first, to measure the relative technical (in)efficiency of Spanish public Higher Education Institutions in the period 2002–03 to 2012–13, comparing the situation before and during the last economic crisis; and, second, to analyze the determinants of university (in)efficiency and, especially, the direct impact of the crisis. After applying the two-stage double bootstrap DEA methodology, the results show that Spanish public universities have become more efficient during the crisis than before it. In fact, the regression analysis confirms that the “crisis” variable has had a statistically significant positive impact on university efficiency. We also find that age has favorably influenced how these institutions utilize their resources to produce teaching and research outputs, but technical specialization has had a negative effect. Moreover, the regional location of public universities has been also a crucial determinant of their efficiency level. Our findings are therefore relevant for political and academic decision-makers in order to know if public universities have been adequately managed in the crisis period and to identify factors that could improve their efficiency, and hence to help them to enhance their international competitiveness in the future.