Corporate Bond Returns and Volatility

Recent literature emphasizes the relation of stock volatility to corporate bond yields. We demonstrate that during 1996–2005 corporate bond excess return volatility is directly related to contemporaneous corporate bond excess returns. In fact, the decompositions of aggregate bond volatility have a higher contemporaneous correlation with bond yields in comparison to idiosyncratic stock risk. Additionally, bond volatility and idiosyncratic risk are significant predictors of corporate three‐month and six‐month ahead bond excess returns. We also find that corporate bond volatility contains both slow moving and time‐varying components.     

Is There a January Effect in Corporate Bond and Paper Returns?

This paper examines the question of seasonality in corporate bond and commercial paper returns by testing specifically for a January effect. Complete data covering a 131-year period for both series, as well as term premiums, are analyzed using a procedure that provides consistent estimates of the variance-covariance matrix. The results suggest that a January effect does exist for both assets for the entire period; however, closer examination reveals a strong January effect for the pre-1915 period but a dampening thereafter. We conclude that precise results depend primarily upon the time period chosen and the debt instrument examined. Tests involving the inflation rate strengthen the case for a January seasonal.     

Corporate Multinationality and Acquirer Returns

This paper provides evidence on how corporate multinationality from the perspective of acquiring firms relates to M&A returns. Using multivariate regressions and a large dataset of over 6,000 M&As (both cross-border and domestic) by UK firms during 1987 to 2014, the paper finds multinationality to be associated with significantly higher short-run announcement returns and long-run operating performance. While the multinationality premium (higher M&A returns for multinationals) persists over time, it seems to be restricted to firms with superior resource/managerial capabilities and minimal agency problems. Finally, the multinationality premium appears to be driven by foreign acquisitions into advanced economies. The results are robust to correcting for sample selection bias and controlling for several firm and deal characteristics, as well as accounting for firm-, industry-, and year-fixed effects. Collectively, the findings imply that multinationality could be a source of value creation for acquiring firms, particularly in foreign acquisitions, which tend to be complex, and, thereby, require superior managerial capabilities to succeed.     

Modeling the Conditional Covariance Between Stock and Bond Returns: A Multivariate GARCH Approach

To analyze the intertemporal interaction between the stock andbond market returns, we assume that the conditional covariancematrix follows a multivariate GARCH process. We allow for asymmetriceffects in conditional variances and covariances. Using dailydata, we find strong evidence of conditional heteroskedasticityin the covariance between stock and bond market returns. Theresults indicate that not only variances, but also covariancesrespond asymmetrically to return shocks. Bad news in the stockand bond market is typically followed by a higher conditionalcovariance than good news. Cross asymmetries, that is, asymmetriesfollowed from shocks of opposite signs, appear to be importantas well. Covariances between stock and bond returns tend tobe relatively low after bad news in the stock market and goodnews in the bond market. A financial application of our modelshows that optimal portfolio shares can be substantially affectedby asymmetries in covariances. Moreover, our results show sizablegains due to asymmetric volatility timing.     

Corporate Governance and Acquirer Returns

We examine whether corporate governance mechanisms, especially the market for corporate control, affect the profitability of firm acquisitions. We find that acquirers with more antitakeover provisions experience significantly lower announcement‐period abnormal stock returns. This supports the hypothesis that managers at firms protected by more antitakeover provisions are less subject to the disciplinary power of the market for corporate control and thus are more likely to indulge in empire‐building acquisitions that destroy shareholder value. We also find that acquirers operating in more competitive industries or separating the positions of CEO and chairman of the board experience higher abnormal announcement returns.     

Corporate Political Contributions and Stock Returns

We develop a new and comprehensive database of firm‐level contributions to U.S. political campaigns from 1979 to 2004. We construct variables that measure the extent of firm support for candidates. We find that these measures are positively and significantly correlated with the cross‐section of future returns. The effect is strongest for firms that support a greater number of candidates that hold office in the same state that the firm is based. In addition, there are stronger effects for firms whose contributions are slanted toward House candidates and Democrats.     

Time-Varying Expected Returns in International Bond Markets

This article examines the predictable variation in long-maturity government bond returns in six countries. A small set of global instruments can forecast 4 to 12 percent of monthly variation in excess bond returns. The predictable variation is statistically and economically significant. Moreover, expected excess bond returns are highly correlated across countries. A model with one global risk factor and constant conditional betas can explain international bond return predictability if the risk factor is proxied by the world excess bond return, but not if it is proxied by the world excess stock return.     

The Long-Run Stock Returns Following Bond Ratings Changes

Using essentially all Moody's bond ratings changes between 1970 and 1997, we find no reliable abnormal returns following upgrades. However, we find negative abnormal returns on the magnitude of 10 to 14 percent in the first year following downgrades. Additional results reveal that this underperformance is especially pronounced for small, low-credit-quality firms. Also, downgrades underperform in nearly all years in the sample, and a large part of the abnormal returns occur at subsequent earnings announcements. Thus, the evidence suggests that the poor returns result from an underreaction to the announcement of downgrades, rather than from lower systematic risk.     

Equity Volatility and Corporate Bond Yields

This paper explores the effect of equity volatility on corporate bond yields. Panel data for the late 1990s show that idiosyncratic firm‐level volatility can explain as much cross‐sectional variation in yields as can credit ratings. This finding, together with the upward trend in idiosyncratic equity volatility documented by Campbell, Lettau, Malkiel, and Xu (2001), helps to explain recent increases in corporate bond yields.     

Measuring Corporate Bond Mortality and Performance

This study develops an alternative way to measure default risk and suggests an appropriate method to assess the performance of fixed-income investors over the entire spectrum of credit-quality classes. The approach seeks to measure the expected mortality of bonds and the consequent loss rates in a manner similar to the way actuaries assess mortality of human beings. The results show that all bond ratings outperform riskless Treasuries over a ten-year horizon and that, despite relatively high mortality rates, B-rated and CCC-rated securities outperform all other rating categories for the first four years after issuance, with BB-rated securities outperforming all others thereafter.     

Corporate Yield Spreads and Bond Liquidity

We find that liquidity is priced in corporate yield spreads. Using a battery of liquidity measures covering over 4,000 corporate bonds and spanning both investment grade and speculative categories, we find that more illiquid bonds earn higher yield spreads, and an improvement in liquidity causes a significant reduction in yield spreads. These results hold after controlling for common bond‐specific, firm‐specific, and macroeconomic variables, and are robust to issuers' fixed effect and potential endogeneity bias. Our findings justify the concern in the default risk literature that neither the level nor the dynamic of yield spreads can be fully explained by default risk determinants.     

Aggregate Earnings and Corporate Bond Markets

I examine the previously unexplored relation between aggregate earnings changes and corporate bond market returns. I find that aggregate earnings changes have a negative relation to investment‐grade corporate bond market returns and a positive relation to high‐yield corporate bond market returns. The aggregate earnings‐returns relation is lower (i.e., less positive or more negative) for bonds with higher credit ratings and longer maturities. Further, I show that the aggregate earnings‐returns relation is driven by both the expected and the news component of aggregate earnings changes. The expected component is negatively related to expected returns, and the news component is positively related to cash flow news and changes in nominal interest rates, and negatively related to changes in default premia. My results contribute to the understanding of the role of earnings in corporate bond markets as well as the macroeconomic role of accounting information.     

Underpricing in the Corporate Bond Market

This article examines underpricing of initial public offerings(IPOs) and seasoned offerings in the corporate bond market.We investigate whether underpricing represents a solution toan information problem or a liquidity problem. We find thatunderpricing occurs with both IPOs and seasoned offerings andis highest among riskier, unknown firms. Our evidence suggeststhat information problems drive underpricing, with support forboth the bookbuilding view of underpricing and the asymmetricinformation theory. We do not find evidence in favor of theRock model of underpricing or any evidence that illiquiditycauses underpricing.     

Corporate Fraud and Corporate Bond Costs: Evidence from China

This study investigates the relationship between corporate fraud and four typical components of costs associated with corporate bonds. Based on data from a booming corporate bond market in China, we confirm that fraudulent issuers have higher corporate bond costs. Specifically, they are more likely to push upward price revisions, pay higher issue fees and coupon spreads, and encounter larger underpricing after issuance. Moreover, we demonstrate that severe corporate fraud is also significantly related to the costs of corporate bonds. Furthermore, we find that investors pay more attention to fraud in accounting information and disclosure. These results remain robust to a strand of endogeneity and through the robustness tests. In additional research, we find that bonds issued by fraudulent firms tend to receive lower ratings and show inferior performance after issuance. We also demonstrate that the effects of corporate fraud on bond costs erode as time passes, although the mitigation speed is slow. Finally, we find that hiring reputable financial intermediaries can partially mitigate the negative effects of corporate fraud.     

Ex Ante Bond Returns and the Liquidity Preference Hypothesis

We provide a formal test of the liquidity preference hypothesis (LPH), that is, the monotonicity of ex ante term premiums, using nonparametric estimates that do not require a structural model for conditional expected returns. Although the point estimates of the term premiums are consistent with previous conclusions in the literature regarding violations of the LPH, the test statistics are generally insignificant, even when powerful conditioning information is used. These results illustrate the importance of correctly accounting for correlations across maturities and of formally testing the inequality restrictions implied by the LPH.     

Modeling Conditional Skewness in Stock Returns

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a new GARCH-in-Mean (GARCH-M) model allowing for conditional skewness. The model is based on the so-called z distribution capable of modeling skewness and kurtosis of the size typically encountered in stock return series. The need to allow for skewness can also be readily tested. The model is consistent with the volatility feedback effect in that conditional skewness is dependent on conditional variance. Compared to previously presented GARCH models allowing for conditional skewness, the model is analytically tractable, parsimonious and facilitates straightforward interpretation.Our empirical results indicate the presence of conditional skewness in the monthly postwar US stock returns. Small positive news is also found to have a smaller impact on conditional variance than no news at all. Moreover, the symmetric GARCH-M model not allowing for conditional skewness is found to systematically overpredict conditional variance and average excess returns.     

The Effect of Junk Bond Defaults on Common Stock Returns

This paper examines the effect of junk bond defaults on common stock returns. The evidence indicates that stockholders uncover the signs of financial distress long before the default date. Stock prices fall sharply at the time of the default announcement. Although stocks of fallen angel sample recover slowly and steadily after the default announcement, stocks of the original-issue junk bond sample continue to decline. On average, bankrupt firms suffer larger negative stock returns than defaulted firms not only at the time of announcement, but also in both pre- and post-event periods.     

The Default Premium and Corporate Bond Experience

The development of organized markets for speculative-grade corporate debt has provided financial researchers with an opportunity to examine the pricing of default risk. By incorporating previous work on the default experience of low-rated corporate debt, this paper presents an introduction to risk-neutral models of risky-bond pricing and uses these to examine the relationship between the default premium embodied in bond yields and actual default rates. The contribution of macroeconomic information to the default premium is also examined. The author finds that holders of low-grade bonds have, on average, been compensated for losses due to default.