The nutrition transition to 2030. Why developing countries are likely to bear the major burden

Considerable increases in food consumption, shifts in consumption patterns and changes in the entire food system have occurred globally. These changes, initially limited to the industrialized world, are now being experienced at an even faster pace in many of the advanced economies of the developing world. The past evolution of this transition in nutrition and lifestyles is by now well documented. Based on FAO's outlook for global food and agriculture, this paper outlines the likely future changes in food consumption patterns and the global trajectory of the nutrition transition over the next 30 years. It presents the main drivers of the nutrition transition and examines their influence on the prospective changes in consumption patterns. The paper illustrates how the current burden of undernourishment and malnutrition in developing countries is likely to compound the adverse effects of the nutrition transition, notably the increasing prevalence of obesity and non-communicable diseases (NCDs); it shows how and where the current problem of undernutrition could create a growing future burden of overweight, obesity and NCDs and that both undernourishment and overnutrition are likely to co-exist for a long time in the vast majority of developing countries, creating a widespread double burden of malnutrition.     

‘Because of poverty,we had to come together’: collective action for improved food security in rural Kenya and Uganda

Agricultural productivity in East African smallholder systems is notoriously low and food production faces multiple challenges, including soil degradation, decreasing land availability, poor market integration, disease burdens and climate change impacts. However, recent evidence from an in-depth study from two sites in Kenya and Uganda shows signs of new social dynamics as a response to these multiple stressors. This paper focuses on the emergence of local social institutions for collective action, in which particularly women farmers organize themselves. Although previous research on collective action has largely focused on common-pool resource management, we argue that collective action is one potential pathway to livelihood and sustainability improvements also in a setting of private land ownership. Trust building, awareness raising and actions to improve livelihood security through risk sharing and pooling of labour and other limited assets have given people more time and resources available for diversification, preventative activities, experimentation and resource conservation. It thereby strengthens farmers’ capacity to cope with and adapt to change, as well as contributes to the agency at the local level.     

Have health claims affected demand for fats and meats in Canada?

Chronic illness is a global epidemic and places significant economic and social burdens on societies. Research has shown that a healthy diet can be used to mitigate or significantly reduce the risk of many chronic illnesses. Health authorities around the world have begun regulating health claims on foods to encourage the consumption of healthy foods. However, the “ex post” efficacy of health claims regulations on consumers demand for healthy foods has not been assessed. The demand for fats and meats in Canada is estimated using a linear-approximate almost ideal demand system. The results indicate health claims decreased unhealthy food demand between 1.41% and 7.10% and increased healthy food demand between 1.95% and 8.50%.     

Who Pays More for Food?

Building on research with unit values, we demonstrate how a household's per serving and total vegetable expenditures depend on both the characteristics of the household and on its location. The lower a household's income, for example, the lower is vegetable spending, all else constant. However, households living in communities with high real estate prices, or with a high incidence of poverty, among other things, tend to pay more. Simulations further illustrate the effect that a community's characteristics can have on a household's vegetable spending, if the household lives in each of 10 cities in the United States.     

Does food market modernisation lead to improved dietary diversity and diet quality for urban Vietnamese households?

This study investigates the possible mechanisms through which modern food markets may affect Vietnamese households’ dietary diversity and diet quality using data from a survey of 1,700 urban households with seven‐day food recall. We calculate Household Dietary Diversity Scores to measure dietary diversity, and use consumption frequencies of micronutrients (vitamin A and heme iron) and a macronutrient (protein) to create a household measure of diet quality. We estimate a Poisson regression model using a two‐step control function approach to address the potential endogeneity of our key explanatory variable, modern market food expenditure shares. Higher modern market food expenditure share is positively and significantly associated with consumption frequency of heme iron, but there are no significant associations with consumption of vitamin A and protein. We further explore indirect linkages between food expenditure shares and dietary diversity, which in turn, may be linked to household diet quality. Results from a system of equations show that the food expenditure share variable has no significant relationship with dietary diversity, but dietary diversity is positively and significantly associated with diet quality. Our results indicate that alone, policies which encourage ‘food market modernisation’ are not enough to improve diet quality in urban Vietnam.     

The Dynamics of Individuals' Fat Consumption

Consumers are increasingly aware of the link between their lifestyle choices and the risk of noncommunicable diseases. A dynamic approach incorporating this linkage in food demand is developed, where consumers maximize utility over time by choosing fat intake to control their cumulative fat level. The resulting dynamic indirect utility function and household data on meat, fish, and dairy consumption are used to estimate a censored demand system. Results show that consumers consciously adjust, but not instantaneously, their cumulative fat level. Highly educated households have a faster rate of adjustment of cumulative fat. When cumulative fat level increases, consumers shift to dairy or white meat from red meat products.     

气候变化对我国粮食安全的均衡分析

文章基于一般均衡模型构建了A2与B2两种气候变化情景下我国未来社会发展状况,以叶立明等人的研究成果(2030年与2050年我国三大粮食单产变化)作为政策冲击要件,模拟并分析了2030年与2050年我国粮食供给与需求状况。研究结果表明:A2与B2两种气候变化政策情景下的粮食供给与需求存在较大差异,但中低排放情景下的B2气候变化政策情景对我国粮食供需平衡更为有利;针对分品种粮食供需不平衡的状况,该文认为可以从调整种植结构的角度来改善;尽管政策情景下未来粮食供求较为乐观,但影响粮食安全的社会因素较多,保障粮食安全切不可掉以轻心。     

On Crop Biodiversity, Risk Exposure, and Food Security in the Highlands of Ethiopia

This paper investigates the effects of crop genetic diversity on farm productivity and production risk in the highlands of Ethiopia. Using a moment-based approach, the analysis uses a stochastic production function capturing mean, variance, and skewness effects. Welfare implications of diversity are evaluated using a certainty equivalent, measured as expected income minus a risk premium (reflecting the cost of risk). We find that the effect of diversity on skewness dominates its effect on variance, meaning that diversity reduces the cost of risk. The analysis also shows that the beneficial effects of diversity become of greater value in degraded land.     

Fruit and Vegetable Consumption Patterns: A Segmentation Approach

In this article, we study the heterogeneity of fruit and vegetable consumption patterns in France. A finite mixture of AIDS models is used to describe food demand patterns revealing different preferences over distinct classes. We obtained six different clusters, which reflect specific socio-demographic characteristics and different income and price elasticities. This approach is appropriate for targeting specific public nutritional policies. Our main results show that unlike the other clusters in which the usual price and income policy tools may be used, the lowest income cluster with the lowest consumption, remains insensitive to economic variables.     

山区粮食安全的保障体系建设

山区粮食安全的主要问题是粮源不足、收入偏低、物流不畅、信息迟缓、库存趋“零”及市场发育不完善,以“三小”（小集市、小作坊、小商贩）经营为主,粮食加工企业不进山,加工品流通效率低,难以应急。从粮食安全工作中存在的问题出发,把完善保障制度建设和工作措施作为切入点,为进一步加强新时期我国山区粮食安全保障工作制度提供一些政策性对策与建议。     

山西省粮食生产时空变化及供求现状分析

目的 探析山西省粮食生产的时空变化及粮食供需结构现状。方法 文章选取2010—2019年山西省粮食生产和消费数据,借助ArcGIS10.2软件、EXCEL软件,采用重心研究模型和粮食安全贡献度模型,综合探析近年来山西省粮食供需变化及粮食安全现状。结果 （1）2001—2019年山西省粮食面积和产量整体稳中有增;种植结构以玉米、小麦为主,谷子、大豆、马铃薯为辅,以及高粱、燕麦、荞麦等小杂粮类;10年来,粮食生产变化表现为以增加玉米,减少小麦和杂粮生产为特点。（2）2010—2019年大豆、燕麦和小麦的产量重心表现为由西北向东南转移,其他种类均呈现由西南向东北方向转移;种植结构变化幅度由大到小依次为：马铃薯>荞麦>大豆>高粱>燕麦>玉米>谷子>小麦。（3）2011—2019年全省粮食产量稳定情况下,以2014年为转折点粮食需求量先降低再增加,调出量先增加再减少,至2018全省粮食调出量减少为负值;粮食需求结构中,口粮占53.65%,饲料用粮占比29.68%,工业用量仅占13.53%。运城市的粮食安全贡献度最大,其次为临汾市、忻州市、朔州市和晋中市较高,长治市、大同市、吕梁市和晋城市较低;太原市和阳泉市最低,为负值。结论 山西省粮食生产表现为总体平衡,种植优势由西南向东北方向转移的趋势,且各作物种植时空变化规律性不强;种植结构尚未形成区域特色产业,粮食需求量仍有逐年递增的趋势,粮食安全仍不容忽视。     

粮食安全背景下高标准农田建设的耕地复种效应研究

研究目的：探究高标准农田建设的耕地复种效应及机制,为完善高标准农田建设和保障粮食安全提供决策参考。研究方法：基于中国31个省（市）面板数据,运用连续型DID模型分析高标准农田建设对耕地复种指数的影响及机制。研究结果：（1）高标准农田建设能显著提升耕地复种指数,经过一系列稳健性检验后作用效果依然存在。（2）从农业功能区、地区经济发展程度、作物熟制类型和自然灾害程度异质性分析表明,高标准农田建设对粮食主产区、经济发展程度较高地区、多熟制南方地区和高受灾率地区耕地复种指数的提升效果更明显。（3）机制检验发现,高标准农田建设能通过农业生产效率提升、农业种植结构调整以及农业经营规模扩大这三个路径来提升耕地复种指数。（4）门槛效应发现,高标准农田建设提升耕地复种的作用随着建设费用增加呈现边际效应递减的非线性特性,门槛前高标准农田建设提升耕地复种的边际效应要明显大于门槛后。研究结论：应完善高标准农田建设的体制机制,分区分类推进高标准农田建设和合理配置建设资金,有序引导新型农业经营主体规模化经营,更好地发挥高标准农田建设的耕地复种效应。     

Do Plant Clinics Improve Household Food Security? Evidence from Rwanda

One of the main drivers of food insecurity is pests, which are estimated to cause around 40% of crop losses worldwide. We examine the food security effects of plant clinics, a novel agricultural extension model that aims to reduce crop losses due to pests through the provision of demand‐driven plant health diagnostic and advisory services to smallholder farmers. The study is based on survey data from maize‐growing households in Rwanda, where 66 plant clinics have been established. Using switching regression and matching techniques as well as various food security metrics, including the food insecurity experience scale, we find evidence that participation in plant clinics is significantly associated with a reduction in household food insecurity. For instance, among the participating households, plant clinics contribute to a decrease in the period of food shortage by one month and a reduction in the severity of food insecurity by 22 percentage points. We also show that these effects are more pronounced for female‐headed households. Overall, our findings suggest that plant clinics can play an important role in achieving the Sustainable Development Goal 2 of zero hunger.     

基于粮食安全和生态安全的耕地生态保护研究

研究目的：在粮食安全和生态安全双重目标下,探索耕地生态保护的内涵、举措及实施路径。研究方法：文献综述法,理论分析法。研究结果：（1）耕地生态保护要注重生态系统结构保护、过程调控以及对区域生态的影响;（2）生态保护以构建高产稳产可持续耕作系统、保护生态系统服务产出能力、减少生态负面效应和统筹发挥山水林田湖草沙生态综合效应为目标;（3）耕地生态保护存在保护动力不足、理论技术体系不完善、保护举措不成体系等问题;（4）耕地生态保护要从景观结构、土壤结构和营养结构等方面开展,并调控好生境、物质输入与输出、作物种植等过程。研究结论：构建以结构保护和过程调控为主线的耕地生态保护路径,能有效促进耕地“三位一体”保护,保障国家粮食安全和生态安全。     

Measurement Error in Recall Surveys and the Relationship between Household Size and Food Demand

Variation in household survey design and implementation is used to obtain evidence of nonrandom measurement error in recall surveys of household expenditure. These surveys, which are used especially in developing countries, appear to have measurement errors in food expenditures and in food budget shares that are correlated with household size. These correlated errors may be part of the explanation for a puzzling pattern of falling food demand with rising household size in poorer countries.     

基于风险分析的缙云县耕地需求量预测研究

研究目的：从粮食安全角度,结合风险分析理念,进行耕地需求量预测,为制定政策提供依据。研究方法：运用蒙特卡罗模拟方法,以县域为例,分析人均粮食消费量、出生率、死亡率、粮食耕地单产、粮经比、复种指数、粮食自给率等因素的可能概率分布,对耕地需求量进行仿真预测。研究结果：得到具有一定可信度的耕地需求量风险区间值,其平均值与常规预测方法的结果接近,但比常规预测得到更多的信息。研究结论：通过风险分析得到的耕地需求量风险区间值比单一特定的值更具有政策意义,分析耕地需求量风险区间值,可协助分析相关政策措施的有效性,有利于土地利用规划的弹性管理。