中小银行信用风险压力测试传导模型选择问题研究

随着我国经济进入"新常态",中小银行信贷资产出现极端损失的可能性越来越大,用于测度极端风险影响的压力测试逐渐成为各家商业银行信用风险管理的核心手段之一。本文通过梳理目前国内外主流压力测试传导模型原理,比较分析各自的优势和局限性,结合我国中小银行信用风险压力测试工作在测试粒度、地域局限性、数据基础和技术基础几方面的特殊性,得出Merton-Vasicek模型最适合的结论,并针对测试工作在承压指标方面的特殊要求改进了该模型,为我国中小银行信用风险压力测试工作提供了有效可行的模型建议。     

Secrecy jurisdictions

This paper surveys tax haven legislation and links the literature on tax havens to the literature on asymmetric information. I argue that the core aim of tax haven legislation is to create private information (secrecy) for the users of tax havens. This leads to moral hazard and transaction costs in non-havens. The business model of tax havens is illustrated by using Mauritius and Jersey as case studies. I also provide several real-world examples of how secrecy jurisdictions lead to inefficient market outcomes and breach of regulations in non-haven countries. Both developed and developing countries are harmed, but the consequences seem most detrimental to developing countries.     

Secrecy versus patenting

We develop an equilibrium search model of innovation with the possibility of multiple independent discovery. We distinguish innovations from ideas, and we view patents as probabilistic property rights that are constrained by the innovators' option to keep the innovation secret. We find that the patent system can simultaneously stimulate innovation, information disclosure and welfare. An optimal patent may provide more or less protection than secrecy, and in many cases, it provides less, suggesting that its main function is information spreading rather than rewarding the costs of the innovative activity.     

压力测试及其在金融机构风险管理中的运用

本文研究和评价了目前被国际大型金融机构积极采用的风险管理工具:压力测试。作者通过将压力测试与VaR作比较等方法详细阐述了压力测试的特征、使用方法和缺陷,并且进一步分析指出压力测试在金融机构风险管理中的作用及其最新发展状况和趋势,最后着重分析了压力测试在我国运用和发展的前景并提出建议。     

金融机构压力测试的国际经验及启示

2008年全球金融危机以来,为增强金融机构经营的稳健性,各国监管当局普遍加强了金融监管力度。其中,通过压力测试考察大型金融机构在极端情景下的风险抵御能力,成为各国监管当局关注的重点。与国际银行业相比,我国压力测试工作的起步和实施时间较短,运行机制还存在较大的完善空间。本文从基本特征、风险情景设定、风险传导机制以及风险抵御能力四个方面比较分析了美国、欧元区和英国银行业压力测试的主要特点;在此基础上,本文进一步提出中国银行业优化压力测试框架体系的五各方面:优化风险因子的设定、修订静态假设、构建统一透明的风险传导机制、完善测试结果评估、建立对不达标银行的约束机制。     

Monetary mystique: Secrecy and central banking

The paper contains a discussion of the role of secrecy in the implementation of monetary policy. It documents the Federal Reserve's defense of secrecy as argued in a recent Freedom of Information Act suit. The Federal Reserve's arguments are evaluated on the basis of economic theory. Theoretical papers related to the secrecy issue are reviewed. The discussion highlights a number of potential benefits and costs of central bank secrecy, and identifies some conditions under which secrecy could be socially beneficial.     

The Coordination Role of Stress Tests in Bank Risk‐Taking

We examine whether stress tests distort banks' risk‐taking decisions. We study a model in which a regulator may choose to rescue banks in the event of concurrent bank failures. Our analysis reveals a novel coordination role of stress tests. Disclosure of stress‐test results informs banks of the failure likelihood of other banks, which can reduce welfare by facilitating banks' coordination in risk‐taking. However, conducting stress tests also enables the regulator to more effectively intervene banks, coordinating them preemptively into taking lower risks. We find that, if the regulator has a strong incentive to bail out, stress tests improve welfare, whereas if the regulator's incentive to bail out is weak, stress tests impair welfare.     

Calibrating the Magnitude of the Countercyclical Capital Buffer Using Market-Based Stress Tests

This paper proposes a novel methodology to calibrate the magnitude of the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) using market-based stress tests. The macroprudential authority in our paper aims to contain the possibility of a breach of a minimum capital ratio in the event of a severe system-wide shock within a certain permissible failure probability. We apply the methodology by stress-testing major banks in six advanced economies on a quarterly basis over a period of 27 years. The estimates suggest that the cap on the CCyB should not be less than around 1.7% of total assets. Its potential normal-times level is estimated at approximately 0.8% of total assets.     

Optimum Distribution-Free Tests and Further Evidence of Heteroscedasticity in the Market Model

In this paper several powerful distribution-free tests for heteroscedasticity are introduced and are used to test the hypothesis of constant variance in the market model. These tests are noted for their flexibility in specifying alternative hypotheses. It is found that the assumption of homoscedasticity is untenable for the majority of stocks analyzed. The implications of this finding for the efficient estimation of the parameters of the market model are also discussed.     

Merton-Vasicek模型在我国中小商业银行房地产压力测试中的应用——以某地方性商业银行为例

自2008年次贷危机以来,房地产贷款一直是商业银行持续关注的高风险资产。我国监管当局多次下发文件要求商业银行开展与房地产相关贷款的压力测试工作。与其他压力测试一样,压力影响的计量模型是房地产压力测试的重要内容之一。随着我国新巴协议的逐步实施和信用风险内评方法在中小银行的逐步落地,利用评级结果计量压力影响的Merton-Vasicek模型越来越凸显出优势。本文在梳理国内外压力测试模型研究的基础上,参考国内现有压力测试实践研究成果,以某地方性商业银行数据为例,探讨Merton-Vasicek模型如何在我国中小商业银行房地产压力测试中有效应用。     

A Generalized Econometric Model and Tests of a Signalling Hypothesis with Two Discrete Signals

To test the major prediction of a signalling hypothesis-that the market price is monotonic in the signal-the price response to the signal must be measured. Since a signal is an outcome of a rational decision rule of the signaller, the market can infer the true type of the signaller from the signal. This necessitates estimation of the price response to the signal, conditional on the rational decision rule. Thus, the empirical models (e.g., event studies in corporate finance) that estimate the market price responses to signals without conditioning on the rational decision rules are misspecified if viewed as tests of the prediction of a signalling hypothesis. This paper builds a generalized econometric model with two possible discrete signals, derives the rational decision rules, presents a simple estimator of the price response to a signal, and illustrates its use in testing a recently expounded hypothesis that firms signal their true value by forcing or not forcing an outstanding convertible bond.     

Mandatory Disclosure,Voluntary Disclosure,and Stock Market Liquidity: Evidence from the EU Bank Stress Tests

We use the EU stress tests and the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis to study the consequences of supervisory disclosure of banks’ sovereign risk exposures. We test the idea that a mandatory one‐time disclosure induces an increase in voluntary disclosures about sovereign risk in the following periods and, through the shift in the voluntary disclosure equilibrium, increases the liquidity of banks’ shares. First, we find that the timing and content of different mandatory disclosure events helps explain the levels of stress‐test banks’ voluntary disclosures about sovereign risk. Second, although the bid‐ask spreads of stress test participants generally increased after the mandatory stress test in 2011, our results suggest that the decrease in market liquidity is entirely attributable to those stress‐test participants that did not commit to voluntarily maintaining the disclosures of sovereign risk exposure.     

上市公司信息保密研究

信息保密通过影响信息的公开程度对资本市场产生重要影响。信息保密制度作为资本市场会计监管的重要组成部分,有助于保护交易双方利益和促进资本市场效率,但也会因其内在的缺陷性而导致资本市场效率的缺损,因此如何完善信息保密制度并有效协调其与信息披露的关系是资本市场尤待解决的问题。本文拟全面探讨信息保密的本质、动机、内容、经济后果以及监管策略等,以便投资者能更好理解上市公司的信息披露行为,并为监管部门进一步完善信息保密制度提供建议。同时我们认为,建立信息保密的公示制度并发挥媒体的监督作用,是规范上市公司信息保密行为必须采取的措施。     

Cultural Secrecy and Anti‐corruption Disclosure in Large Multinational Companies

This paper analyses the relation between countries’ cultural characteristics and anti‐corruption disclosure. In particular, it extends prior research and examines whether country‐level secrecy also appears to impact differences in this type of disclosure, while controlling for factors previously shown to matter. Using Transparency International ratings of disclosures on anti‐corruption efforts by large multinational firms and an ordinal regression analysis, the paper documents that companies from more ‘secretive’ countries have significantly lower levels of anti‐corruption disclosure.     

Multi-Factor Cox-Ingersoll-Ross Models of the Term Structure: Estimates and Tests from a Kalman Filter Model

This paper presents a method for estimating multi-factor versions of the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (1985b) model of the term structure of interest rates. The fixed parameters in one, two, and three factor models are estimated by applying an approximate maximum likelihood estimator in a state-space model using data for the U.S. treasury market. A nonlinear Kalman filter is used to estimate the unobservable factors. Multi-factor models are necessary to characterize the changing shape of the yield curve over time, and the statistical tests support the case for two and three factor models. A three factor model would be able to incorporate random variation in short term interest rates, long term rates, and interest rate volatility.     

Improving Tests of Abnormal Returns by Bootstrapping the Multivariate Regression Model with Event Parameters

Parametric dummy variable-based tests for event studies usingmultivariate regression are not robust to nonnormality of theresidual, even for arbitrarily large sample sizes. Bootstrapalternatives are described, investigated, and compared for caseswhere there are nonnormalities, and cross-sectional and time-seriesdependencies. Independent bootstrapping of residual vectorsfrom the multivariate regression model controls type I errorrates in the presence of cross-sectional correlation, and surprisingly,even in the presence of time-series dependence structures. Theproposed methods not only improve upon parametric methods, butalso allow development of new and powerful event study testsfor which there is no parametric counterpart.     

Sensitivity of Multivariate Tests of the Capital Asset-Pricing Model to the Return Measurement Interval

The capital asset-pricing model's (CAPM) primary empirical implication is a positively sloped linear relation between a security's expected rate of return and its relative risk (beta). Recent research indicates that inferences about the risk-return relation are sensitive to the choice of the return measurement interval. We perform multivariate tests of the Sharpe-Lintner CAPM using monthly and annual returns on market-value-ranked portfolios. The CAPM is rejected using monthly returns, a result consistent with previous research. In contrast, we fail to reject the CAPM when annual holding period returns are used.     

The Impact of Supervisory Stress Tests on Bank Ex-Ante Risk-Taking Behaviour: Empirical Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment

We use the Federal Reserve's stress-testing regime as a quasi-natural experiment to examine the impact of supervisory stress tests on bank ex-ante risk taking behaviour. Using a sample comprising large U.S. bank holding companies over the period from 2003Q1 to 2016Q4, we find that banks which are subjected to annual supervisory stress tests tend to reduce their overall risk by choosing asset portfolios of lower risk exposures. Nevertheless, this risk reduction happens mainly because stress-tested banks reduce the holding of low-risk assets rather than risky assets. We also find that stress-tested banks tend to reduce their on-balance sheet exposures rather than off-balance sheet exposures. Overall, our finding implies that, while supervisory stress tests can help to reduce the banks' overall risks, policy makers should also have a closer look at the mechanisms in which banks allocate risk to mitigate moral hazard and regulatory arbitrage behaviour.