Risk(ing) Metaphors

Metaphors appear in almost every realm of our existence permeating even the supposedly “literal" contexts of high-energy physics laboratories and play a central role in defining and organizing both everyday and scientific realities. Metaphors are not an optional literary device but rather enable us to understand and experience one thing in terms of another. They focus our attention upon particular aspects of a thing that we might otherwise overlook and, in doing so, they also deflect our attention from other aspects. In directing and deflecting our attention, metaphors help us to construct our perceptions of reality in particular ways, guide our actions, and are used to frame issues as problems and to assess the feasibility and appropriateness of various possibilities as solutions. Metaphors are also found within the pages of highly technical texts such as The Original Pronouncements produced by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB). In this paper, I begin to examine more closely the metaphors that the FASB has included in its texts. Specifically, I highlight the many different metaphors that have been used in connection with risk by the FASB. These metaphors have included orientational, attribute, and ontological metaphors. I end by commenting that these metaphors have contributed to the thinkability of risk management and to considerations of risk as an opponent that must and should be confronted and managed. I question the blind spots in our thinking about risk that these metaphors may be creating and perpetuating and suggest how different metaphors might lead to different ways of thinking about risk.     

股价与物价牵引2008楼市走势

2008年楼市难以乐观。但需要补充的是，仅限于对楼市短期波动的预测，不是长期趋势的预测。     

2009年中国物价走势分析与判断

2008年对中国来说,是极不寻常的一年。经济形势特别是价格形势发生了显著的变化,针对复杂多变的经济和价格形势,国家对宏观调控政策进行了迅速而重大的调整,从年初的"双防(防止经济增长     

通缩风险减弱与通胀预期抬头并存——对当前物价走势的分析与展望

2009年5月,CPI、PPI同比增速仍处低位,通货紧缩风险犹存。但是,CPI显露低位启稳迹象,PPI环比小幅上涨,物价下降程度较前期有所缓和,通缩风险减弱。     

The Price Is (Almost) Right

Most previous research tests market efficiency using average abnormal trading profits on dynamic trading strategies, and typically rejects the joint hypothesis of market efficiency and an asset pricing model. In contrast, we adopt the perspective of a buy‐and‐hold investor and examine stock price levels. For such an investor, the price level is more relevant than the short‐horizon expected return, and betas of cash flow fundamentals are more important than high‐frequency stock return betas. Our cross‐sectional tests suggest that there exist specifications in which differences in relative price levels of individual stocks can be largely explained by their fundamental betas.     

Passive Institutional Ownership,R2 Trends,and Price Informativeness

A distinctive trend in the capital markets over the past two decades is the rise in equity ownership of passive financial institutions. We propose that this rise has a negative effect on price informativeness. By not trading around firm‐specific news, passive investors reduce the firm‐specific component of total volatility and increase stock correlations. Consistent with this hypothesis, we find that the growth in passive institutional ownership is robustly associated with the growth in market model R²s of individual stocks since the early 1990s. Additionally, we find a negative relation between passive ownership and earnings predictability, an informativeness proxy.     

国际能源价格走势及其对我国经济的影响

作为国际能源价格标杆的国际油价演变大致分为四个时期,一是第一次石油危机前的极低油价时期,二是第一次石油危机到本世纪初的低油价时期,三是本世纪初以来的油价转换期,目前正逐步走向第四个时期——高油价时期。高价能源时代的迫近对我国经济形成多重压力：物价持续上涨压力,产业结构调整压力,发展模式转换压力,涉外经济转轨压力,社会福利下降压力。应对高价能源挑战必须立足经济社会发展全局高度,对能源与经济社会协调发展进行战略谋划,实行科学的可持续的能源战略。     

我国企业资产重组的特殊性

当前在全球企业资产重组的大浪潮中,我国企业间的资产重组热潮方兴未艾,然而由于我国所处的特殊经济发展时期,使我国的企业资产重组呈现出许多不同于世界潮流的特殊之处.     

Yes We Can (Price Derivatives on Survivor Indices)

We propose a simulation approach to value derivatives when the underlying dynamics are estimated using the survivor indices directly. Our results show that survivor forward and swap premiums increase with maturity and with the market price of risk. Our results also confirm that taking the optionality into consideration is important from a pricing perspective, for both U.S. women and men. We compare our results to what is obtained using an alternative modeling approach in which a Lee–Carter model is used to indirectly model the survivor index. Compared to this method, our estimated premiums and prices are higher for all longevity products. Moreover, comparing American‐style with European‐style options we find that, although the early exercise option has value when using survivor indices directly, the relative value of the early exercise option is significantly less than when the Lee–Carter model is used to indirectly model the survivor index. It follows that the assumed mortality dynamics have important implications for the term structure of forward and swap premiums and for the effect that changes in the market price of risk has on them.     

IMag[in]ing annual reports

Visual images are integral elements within corporate annual reports. Yet, these visual images have been largely ignored in accounting research. We begin to explore the significance of selected visual images appearing in U.S. annual reports during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Our intent is not to produce a general survey of images, but rather to offer different “ways of seeing” images and through these “ways of seeing” to encourage a critical dialogue that focuses upon the representational, ideological and constitutive role of images in annual reports. Our first way of seeing views the image as transparently conveying an intended corporate message. The second way of seeing draws upon neo-Marxist aesthetic literature and considers the ways in which images in annual reports may be mined for their ideological content and may also reveal society's deep structures of social classification, institutional forms and relationships. Finally, we employ critical postmodernist art theory to see images in terms of their constitutive role in creating different types of human subjectivities and realities. We argue that this way of seeing creates the potential for new voices to be heard and the possibility to subvert the dualisms typical of the totalizing theories of modernity.     

上市公司会计监管制度及其改进

由于股票市场在市场经济中的重要作用,所以其是否有效始终是人们关注的焦点。为了实现股票市场的效率和公平,会计监管成为一种制度选择和安排。制度包括正式规则、非正式约束及其实施机制,三者共同决定着制度整体的效率和效果,本文从这三个方面对中美监管制度进行了分析,并结合最新发展趋势对我国上市公司会计监管制度提出改进和完善的对策。     

人口老龄化与房价的区域差异研究——基于面板协整模型的实证分析

本文通过结构性视角,由面板协整检验证明了人口老龄化对房价波动存在长期影响,继以面板误差修正模型讨论了人口结构影响房价波动的区域差别、原因及政策建议。实证结果显示:储蓄、住房需求多元化和家庭结构是造成老年人群推动房价上涨的主要原因,但未来人口老龄化能否引起房价的长期下降,取决于青年人群对住房需求的实现能力;人口老龄化对房价的影响存在区域差异,预示着部分区域房价或已脱离实际面、青年人群的购买力与高房价间矛盾日蹙。从减缓人口老龄化对我国房地产乃至社会经济发展可能带来冲击的角度来看,应及早以前瞻性政策应对。     

The Long Run Share Price Performance of Malaysian Initial Public Offerings (IPOs)

Abstract:  This paper investigates the long run share price performance of 454 Malaysian IPOs during the period 1990 to 2000. In contrast with developed markets, significant over performance is found for equally-weighted event time CARs and buy-and-hold returns using two market benchmarks, though not for value-weighted returns or using a matched company benchmark. The significant abnormal performance also disappears under the calendar-time approach using the Fama-French (1993) three factor model. While the long run performance of Main and Second Board IPOs does not differ, the year of listing, issue proceeds and initial returns are found to be performance-related.     

Determinacy under Inflation Targeting Interest Rate Policy in a Sticky Price Model with Investment (and Labor Bargaining)

In a sticky price model with investment spending, recent research shows that inflation-forecast targeting interest rate policy makes determinacy of equilibrium essentially impossible. We examine a necessary and sufficient condition for determinacy under interest rate policy that responds to a weighted average of an inflation forecast and current inflation. This condition demonstrates that the average-inflation targeting policy ensures determinacy as long as both the response to average inflation and the relative weight of current inflation are large enough. We also find that interest rate policy that responds solely to past inflation guarantees determinacy when its response satisfies the Taylor principle and is not large. These results still hold even when wages and hours worked are determined by Nash bargaining.     

去伪存真:油价趋势与股票市场——来自“一带一路”35国的经验证据

油价波动深刻影响全球经济,严重时会造成全球股市动荡,甚至引发系统性金融风险。然而油价中的信息噪音严重阻碍国际油价对股票市场的预测效果。本文提出的移动平均法可有效减弱信息噪音,研究表明,本文基于移动平均法构建的油价趋势因子对“一带一路”沿线国家股票市场具有良好的样本内和样本外可预测性。进一步研究发现,国际油价波动对产油国和非产油国股票市场的影响存在非对称性。本文为国际油价冲击股票市场提供了新的有力证据,同时本文研究成果提示了油价风险,对维持我国股票市场稳定,保持金融稳定具有一定意义。     

关于不同趋势下黄金价格影响因素的研究——基于1981-2009年数据的实证研究

黄金是商品市场上较为重要的现货、期货交易产品之一,其价格在一定程度上是全球经济形势的风向标。黄金价格随着全球经济环境的变化经历了数次大涨大跌;自1968年后黄金价格市场化已经走过了40多年的历程,国际金价已经历了三段大的趋势:上涨、下跌和再上涨,每一轮的大趋势基本会持续约10年至20年。鉴于黄金价格呈现大趋势性的特点,影响黄金价格的因素是否在不同趋势内依然保持一致呢?本文借助统计软件R,结合黄金价格具有的大趋势性的特点建立多元线性回归模型进行分阶段分析,研究不同阶段内黄金价格影响因素是否一致,并从中得到不少突破性的结论。     

Trends in Corporate Governance

The popular press and scholarly studies have noted a number of trends in corporate governance. This article addresses, from a theoretical perspective, whether these trends are linked. And, if so, how? The article finds that a trend toward greater board diligence will lead, sometimes through subtle or indirect mechanisms, to trends toward more external candidates becoming CEO, shorter tenures for CEOs, more effort/less perquisite consumption by CEOs (even though such behavior is not directly monitored), and greater CEO compensation. An additional prediction is that, under plausible conditions, externally hired CEOs should have shorter tenures, on average, than internally hired CEOs.