A Sequential Choice Alternative to the Travel Cost Model

The travel cost model is the standard model used in the recreation demand area. This model assumes that the decision on the number of trips in a given time period (a season, for example) to a particular site is determined at the beginning of the time period. For certain types of recreation activity, it may be better to model the decision to take a trip to a given site as a function of the outcome of previous trips and the realization of random variables on previous trips (as well as travel and time costs). The spatial choice behavior itself may be sequential in nature rather than continuous. In this paper, a model is developed which specifies the choice of a discrete number of sequentially chosen trips to a given site as a function of site-specific variables and values realized on previous trips. This model improves upon the existing travel cost model by specifying discrete integer values for the number of trips, developing an explicit relationship between trips taken and the number of days spent on each trip, and allowing intra-seasonal effects to determine the probability of taking an additional trip. A comparison is made between the traditional travel cost model estimates of consumer's surplus and the estimates from this sequential discrete choice model.     

我国农地征用的经济学分析：一个理论模型

我国现行农地征用制度存在诸多问题，致使耕地锐减、农民的利益得不到保障。土地收益分配是农地征用制度改革的关键，本文建立了农地非农化的社会福利分配模型，该模型建立在农地非农化市场均衡基础上，对市场中供求双方的福利进行了分析，并得出通过调整供求曲线弹性可以调整供求双方福利。然后引入该模型对我国的农地征用的社会福利进行分析，并对现行的农地征用过程中维护土地市场稳定、保障农民利益、政府收取费用比例及农地征用补偿标准提出政策建议。     

退耕还林还牧系统模型研究

退耕还林还牧是一个渐进的过程,其效益发挥也是一个渐进的过程,即退耕延迟。退耕还林、还牧后,其效益的发挥有时间延迟。本文从退耕延迟和时间延迟两个方面讨论土地利用比较效益的变化,构建退耕还林还牧效益模型,为政策性补偿提供科学依据和计量方法。     

如何进行业绩考核办法与薪酬模式的配套设计

对出资企业的经营业绩进行科学考核，根据考核结果对企业负责人进行奖惩，是出资人依法履行职权，落实资产经营责任，通过业绩的考核和评价，实现资产保值增值根本目的一个重要措施。本文就如何进行如何进行业绩考核办法与薪酬模式的配套设计进行了详细阐述。     

Economic Loss Due to Reputation Damage: A New Model and Its Application to Fukushima Peaches

Consumers have responded negatively to agricultural products originating from the Fukushima prefecture after the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant incident. These consumers’ behavioural changes have caused substantial economic losses for the producers located in contaminated regions through reductions in market prices, consumption quantities and market shares. Remarkably, these losses are observed also for uncontaminated products, posing an opportunity for research in reputation damage. However, existing literature is very rare on empirical modeling of such losses. We utilise the Dixit–Stiglitz demand framework to derive a simple but efficient empirical model that uses market data to quantify reputation damage. This model estimates changes in the perceived quality of a product originating in contaminated regions in relation to those products originating from other competing regions. The model also measures subsequent loss in market share for those products grown in contaminated regions. In our application to Fukushima, results suggest that consumers’ valuation of peaches from Fukushima decreased dramatically (between 22.5% and 23.6%) in the year the nuclear accident occurred, but rapidly recovered in the following years. The results also show that the degree of impact varies across wholesale markets. Fukushima farmers lost about 13.1–18.9% of sales due to reputation damage. Estimates from our proposed models deliver meaningful information in the context of policy interventions such as transfer programmes financed by gainers to compensate reputation losses.     

修宪后土地供应方式的改革--兼谈《土地管理法》的修改

本文结合宪法对土地征用制度的修改,对现行土地供应制度的基本内容作了分析和思考。在此基础上,文章从区分征收与征用、合理规范集体建设用地流转等5个方面提出了土地供应方式改革的一些基本思路,对如何进一步修改现行《土地管理法》、建立新的与宪法精神相吻合的土地供应方式等问题,进行了探讨。     

Innovation and Growth: A Schumpeterian Model of Innovation Applied to Taiwan

Following Schumpeter, we assume that innovation in specific firms, or groups of firms, can have economy-wide effects. Models based on this idea can be shown to have multiple equilibria. The idea of a positive feedback loop innovation system, or POLIS, is formalized by picking an appropriate sequence of equilibria over time. It is shown that POLIS has empirical relevance by applying the formal model to an actual economy. The 1997-98 financial crisis in many Asian countries, most notably South Korea, seemed to have reversed the conventional wisdom regarding the "East Asian miracle". This paper applies the concept of a POLIS to the case of Taiwan to show that, at least in this case, neither the view that the miracle was a mirage nor the view that the growth was a result of factor accumulation only is correct. Ultimately, technological transformation--in particular the creation of a positive feedback loop innovation system--is what makes the difference between sustained growth and gradual or sudden decline. Although problems remain in both the real and the financial sectors, the successes of Taiwan in building the preconditions for an innovation system are worth examining. Upon careful examination of Taiwan's system of innovation within the above Schumpeterian model it is found that Taiwan has a fighting chance of building a POLIS in the near future.     

GeoCA-Urban模型在城市增长与土地增值研究中的应用

城市增长与土地增值规律的研究是城市规划中的关键问题，二者的相互影响是一个时空动态变化过程，现有的地理信息系统由于缺乏对时空分析和动态模拟的能力而无法完整地表达这一地理现象。本文提出将地理信息系统技术与城市动态模拟GeoCA—Urban模型有效集成，动态模拟城市增长与土地增值过程，并在分析二者关系规律的基础上进行预测。     

人口老龄化对城市经济增长影响的建模与实例分析

人口老龄化是当前和今后很长时间内城市人口年龄结构不可逆转的变动趋势,该趋势必然会对城市未来经济产生重大持续影响。弄清人口老龄化对城市经济增长的作用机理和影响效应是必要的也是重要的。在借鉴前人研究的基础上,以上海为例,以中微观的数据为基础,通过"封闭城市"和"开放城市"的全新视角,借助索罗增长模型展开讨论,分析了人口老龄化对城市经济增长的影响。重点揭示了开放城市系统下劳动力流动所产生的老龄化"稀释效应",持续高的"R&D"投入对老龄化产生负影响的遏制作用等。     

Gravity Model of Turkey's Fresh and Processed Fruit and Vegetable Export to the EU

Abstract

This study analyses the factors that determine Turkey's fresh and processed fruit and vegetable exports to the European Union (EU) using a gravity model. Panel data from 1995 to 2001 for 13 EU member countries are utilized. The explanatory variables are GDP, population, distance, Turkish population living in EU member countries, and being non-Mediterranean. Results indicate that the size of the economy, EU population, Turkish population in the EU, and addressing the tastes and preferences of non-Mediterranean countries are significant factors that affect Turkish fruit and vegetable exports. The results suggest that marketing strategies targeting the population of Turkish people in EU countries and non-Mediterranean member countries enhance the export performance of fruit and vegetable exports.     

我国农业空间发展战略的一个实践典型——山东省枣庄市富民生态家园的布局、设计与建设

以山东枣庄富民生态家园的布局、建设为例,论述了我国农业空间发展战略问题,认为生态家园解决了农民剩余劳动力的出路和农民的增收问题,成为生产,生活和生态有机结合的空间载体,解决了尊重农民自主权,大力提高农民素质问题。     

从计量经济分析解读技术进步对中国土地生产力的贡献

研究目的:在有限的国土资源、日益减少的人均耕地面前探讨技术进步对土地生产力的贡献.研究方法:计量经济模型与Eviews软件进行分析.研究结果:技术进步对土地生产力的贡献还远未达到应有的水平.研究结论:必须充分挖掘技术进步对土地生产力贡献的潜力以保障中国的粮食安全.     

国外农业政策择定模式及对我国的启示

根据农业政策议程设定的来源,国外农业政策择定的模式可概括为外在提出模式和内在提出模式.无论哪一种模式都充分体现了特定政策环境下农业利益集团强势的政治参与能力对农业政策择定的影响.国外农业政策择定模式对于提高我国农民政治参与程度、矫正农业政策择定与执行中偏差、促进新农村建设具有重要的借鉴意义.     

脱钩理论在浙江循环经济发展模式中的运用

发展循环经济是转变经济增长方式,走新型工业化道路,建设资源节约型和环境保护型社会的有效发展模式。文章从浙江发展循环经济的制约要素和生态效率的角度,结合脱构理论构建浙江省循环经济发展模式及对策,实现浙江可持续发展。     

The Nested PIGLOG Model: An Application to U.S. Food Demand

A new demand system is introduced, the Nested PIGLOG model, nesting thirteen other demand systems including five that are also new. This new model and its nested special cases are applied to models of U.S. food demand that include food-at-home (FAH), food-away-from-home (FAFH), and alcoholic beverages. Although nested tests and out-of-sample forecasting performance favor generalizing models to a certain degree, statistically insignificant improvements to in-sample-fit and even poorer out-of-sample forecast accuracy undermine further generalizations. Based on a subset of preferred models, FAFH is found to be price and income elastic compared to FAH which is price and income inelastic.     

祁连山国家级自然保护区周边经济发展模式探讨

通过对祁连山自然保护区周边农牧民经济状况的调查发现,这些地区普遍存在着生活水平低、生产资金短缺、产业结构单一等阻碍经济发展的问题,通过对当地自然和社会经济发展情况进行分析,结合对保护区周边农牧民抽样问卷调查,提出了发展生态旅游、进行新兴农牧业发展等适合本地区经济发展的模式。     

A Cost‐Based Model of Seasonal Production with Application to Milk Policy

Milk production is seasonal in many European countries. While quantity seasonality poses capacity management problems for dairy processors, an EU policy goal is to reduce price seasonality. After developing a model of endogenous seasonality, we study the effects of three EU policies on production decisions. These are private storage subsidies, production removals, and production quotas. When cost functions are seasonal in a specified way, then arbitrage opportunities interact with storage subsidies to reduce both price and consumption seasonality. But production seasonality is likely to increase because storage subsidies promote temporal market integration. Conditions are identified under which product market interventions increase quantity seasonality.