Models of exchange rates : A comparison of forecasting results

In this note we compare the results of several published papers on exchange rate forecasting. With regard to univariate time series models, we confirm the result that such models, on average, do not outperform the simple random walk forecasting rule. This conclusion corrects results reported in this Journal by Alexander and Thomas (1987).     

Forecasting in humanitarian operations: Literature review and research needs

Forecasting research in the humanitarian context is scarce. In this literature review, our goal is not only to show why forecasting research is important for the humanitarian sector, but also to identify what has been done so far, and where are the needs for further research. We conducted a structured literature search in Scopus, Web of Science, ABI Inform, and Google Scholar resulted in only 38 papers published between 1990 and 2018. Based on our findings we highlight three case studies as exemplary research in forecasting within the humanitarian context and list seven future research streams with specific research needs identified in each stream.     

A methodology for cluster analysis of citation histories

Citations to all the papers (558) published from 1955 to 1964 by a multidisciplinary (natural sciences) research institute within a ‘scientific periphery’ were collected for the 11-year period after a 10-year lapse since the publication years. All the papers were grouped into 31 research topics, three of which had no such late citations at all. For the remaining 28 groups of papers three indicators were defined: ALPHA, the ratio of the number of papers with citations, to the number of all papers of the particular research topic, indicating thus an overall CITATION EFFICACY; BETA, the ratio of the sum of all citations, to the number of the cited papers, indicating CITATION INTENSITY, and GAMMA, expressing the CITATION LONGEVITY for a given research topic as the incidence (number) of cited papers (irrespective of the number of citations) within the 11-year citing period. In addition, three normalized transformations of the indicator BETA were checked. Two-dimensional (without ALPHA) and three dimensional (with ALPHA, GAMMA, and one of the BETA variants) graphical representations together with a pairwise correlation analysis served as preliminary guidance in the latter statistical analyses by (a) Ward's Hierarchical Cluster Analysis and (b) Polar Taxons Analysis. Both of them resulted in good agreement. Thus, the 28 research topics were found to belong to three clusters. Their composition varied slightly for the original BETA and its three normalized values. It was concluded that ALPHA is not a redundant but quite useful indicator, and that one of the normalized BETA-variants appears most suitable for this kind of studies. In the three-dimensional graphs the clusters may be related to scientific merit as judged in a composite way by all the three indicators. This is done with regard to the diagonal joining the indicators' maximal with their minimal values. The citation LONGEVITY (GAMMA) appears to be most important. Cluster stability tests showed fluctuations of few research topics, which was related to their specific features within the given research setting. It emerges on the whole that the research merit of this (peripheral) scientific production is determined neither by the journals status the papers were published in, nor by the authors' institutional status. Rather, it is the very scientific quality of individual papers within a given research topic that is decisive for the citation ‘survival’.     

从文献量分析我国速生桉的研究现状和发展趋势

以中国知网统计的源期刊为依据,通过对速生桉研究人员在1990—2011年有关速生桉研究论文的发表数量、发表时间、研究内容、期刊分布、核心作者等进行统计分析,总结了我国速生桉的研究水平、科技成果及研究特点,为相关人员更深入地研究速生桉提供文献依据     

Forecasting with an econometric model: Some recent results using the national institute model

It is widely believed that the large econometric models cannot be used for forecasting without considerable intervention on the part of the forecaster. In this paper we challenge this view by reproducing a number of recent forecasts published by the National Institute but without the ad hoc interventions used at the time. We show that in no case would the forecast, produced by the model used mechanically, have been radically different from that actually published. Further, in an ex-post comparison against actual out-turns, the mechanical model forecast is not obviously dominated by the published version.     

2004-2013年我国体育类核心期刊艺术体操科研论文统计分析

运用文献资料、数理统计、逻辑分析的方法,对2004~2013年期间在我国体育类核心期刊上发表的艺术体操科研论文发表数量、第一作者专业背景、参考文献状况、科研论文类型进行了统计分析,并得出结果:10年来我国艺术体操科研论文数量呈波浪式增长趋势,于2009年数量开始逐渐下降;第一作者是非体育专业的研究人员较少;参考文献语种单一且数量少;艺术体操相关运动基础理论、器材、设备、测试设计、教学等的研究较少以及在中小学开展艺术体操教学没有受到重视。     

GOVERNMENT SIZE AND GROWTH: A REJOINDER

In our 2011 survey of the literature in the Journal of Economic Surveys on the effect of government size on economic growth in wealthy countries we find a relatively consistent pattern: An increase in government size by 10 percentage points is associated with a 0.5–1 percentage point lower annual growth rate. This conclusion is questioned by Colombier. In this rejoinder we present a rebuttal of Colombier's argument based on a detailed scrutiny of his own statistical evidence and regression results. Furthermore, we note that several new papers that have appeared since our original paper was published give support to our main conclusion.     

Women entrepreneurship in STEM fields: literature review and future research avenues

The aim of the paper is to explore the published management research on women entrepreneurs in Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (also known as STEM) fields in order to offer a first, comprehensive state-of-the-art of this research. In doing so, a systematic literature review (SLR) of 32 papers has been undertaken. The results of this SLR show that the literature on this topic is still limited and fragmented. However, seeds have been sown for stimulating the theoretical debate and the empirical knowledge on these issues. Based on our analysis of these selected papers, we offer a vibrant research agenda for future developments.

     

Theorizing in the qualitative study of mergers & acquisitions

This paper focuses on theorizing in the study of mergers and acquisitions (M&As), a globally significant inter-organizational phenomenon. We analyze 76 qualitative papers on M&As published in leading management journals between 1966–2016. We identify five modes of theorizing in the study of M&As. We find that M&A scholars make theoretical contributions using different theoretical positioning and research design strategies. The majority of the papers offer a contribution to middle-range theorizing (i.e., the literature on M&As), while a third of the papers also contribute to higher-order, or grand theories in management. In closing, this leads us to call for a rejuvenation of middle-range theorizing in management research.     

Preserving Theoretical Divergence in Management Research: Why the Explanatory Potential of Qualitative Research Should Be Harnessed Rather than Suppressed

Despite the evident rise in the number of qualitative studies that are published in leading journals, I argue that the rich tradition and hallmark of qualitative research is under pressure. In recent years qualitative papers are increasingly being fashioned in the image of quantitative research, so much so that papers adopt ‘factor‐analytic’ styles of theorizing that have typically been the preserve of quantitative methods. This is a worrying trend as it leads to certain types of explanations dominating our field and at the expense of other viable forms of explanation. It also narrows the remit of qualitative research in general by channelling the theoretical contribution of qualitative studies in the direction of factor‐analytic propositional or variance models. In this article, I discuss the differences between the distinct types of theoretical explanations that are associated with quantitative and qualitative methods, survey the trend towards a quantitative ‘restyling’ of qualitative research, and elaborate its negative implications for our body of knowledge and for the state of management and organization theory.     

ON THE SOURCES OF HETEROGENEITY IN BANKING EFFICIENCY LITERATURE

This study reviews the empirical literature on banking efficiency by conducting a meta‐regression analysis. The meta‐dataset consists of 1661 observations retrieved from 120 papers published over the period 2000–2014. While the role of study design and method‐specific characteristics of primary studies is evaluated, the focus concerns regulation in banking. The results are fourfold. First, parametric methods always yield lower levels of banking efficiency than non‐parametric studies. Second, banking efficiency is higher in studies using the value‐added approach rather than the intermediation method. Third, efficiency scores also depend on the journal's ranking and on the number of observations and variables used in the primary papers. Finally, regulation matters: primary papers focusing on countries with a liberalized banking industry provide higher values for efficiency scores.     

Cooperation for Publication? An Analysis of Co-authorship Patterns in Leading Accounting Journals

This paper examines patterns, antecedents, and effects of (international) cooperation in accounting academia based on 7105 papers published in 15 leading accounting journals. In particular, we investigate the dissemination of different forms of cooperation, identify author characteristics that are related to the propensity of cooperation and analyze whether cooperation is associated with research performance (in terms of research impact and output). We find that scholars from Asian countries tend to be more heavily involved in international cooperation than researchers from most European countries and the USA. A Ph.D. from a leading school, a scholar's previous publication experience and a past appointment as editor or editorial board member are positively associated with the propensity for cooperation, while a researcher's current affiliation has only limited impact. Surprisingly, our findings show that cooperation is not related to a greater research impact as measured by citation numbers per paper. Finally, we find a significant negative relationship between a scholar's share of co-authored papers and his or her research output in leading accounting journals as measured by the weighted numbers of papers per author.     

A classification and evaluation of research in operations management

It is important that the first issue of a new journal devoted to research in a given subject area examine the general nature of research in the field at present, and indicate what type of research might be beneficially undertaken in the field in the future. It is also desirable for a new journal to consider the ways in which it will judge the general quality of its articles in the aggregate, relative to established journals in similar disciplines. That is, what criteria can and should be used, say five years hence to determine if the journal is a strong one? It is the purpose of this paper to consider these distinct, but interrelated questions. This will be done by classifying some recent OM research, commenting on what appear to be broad areas where more work might be done, and then suggesting some measures we might want to think about for evaluating papers published by the JOM in the future.     

Rethinking weather station selection for electric load forecasting using genetic algorithms

Demand forecasting is and has been for years a topic of great interest in the electricity sector, being the temperature one of its major drivers. Indeed, one of the challenges when modelling the load is to choose the right weather station, or set of stations, for a given load time series. However, only a few research papers have been devoted to this topic. This paper reviews the most relevant methods that were applied during the Global Energy Forecasting Competition of 2014 (GEFCom2014) and presents a new approach to weather station selection, based on Genetic Algorithms (GA), which allows finding the best set of stations for any demand forecasting model, and outperforms the results of existing methods. Furthermore its performance has also been tested using GEFCom2012 data, providing significant error improvements. Finally, the possibility of combining the weather stations selected by the proposed GA using the BFGS algorithm is briefly tested, providing promising results.     

A disaster response model driven by spatial–temporal forecasts

In this research, we propose a disaster response model combining preparedness and responsiveness strategies. The selective response depends on the level of accuracy that our forecasting models can achieve. In order to decide the right geographical space and time window of response, forecasts are prepared and assessed through a spatial–temporal aggregation framework, until we find the optimum level of aggregation. The research considers major earthquake data for the period 1985–2014. Building on the produced forecasts, we develop accordingly a disaster response model. The model is dynamic in nature, as it is updated every time a new event is added in the database. Any forecasting model can be optimized though the proposed spatial–temporal forecasting framework, and as such our results can be easily generalized. This is true for other forecasting methods and in other disaster response contexts.     

国际学术期刊论文中英语转述动词研究

本研究基于西方学者Thompson&Ye,Thomas&Hawes和Hyland等人在学术论文转述动词领域的研究成果,选择中外学者在国际学术期刊上发表的市场学学科的20篇论文为语料,分析统计了转述动词的使用情况。虽然中国学者在转述动词的种类和使用频率上略逊色于英语本族语学者,但并没有本质的区别。这说明中国学者转述动词的使用已接近于本族语者的水平,得到了国际学术期刊的认可。     

Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability

This special section aims to demonstrate the limited predictability and high level of uncertainty in practically all important areas of our lives, and the implications of this. It summarizes the huge body of solid empirical evidence accumulated over the past several decades that proves the disastrous consequences of inaccurate forecasts in areas ranging from the economy and business to floods and medicine. The big problem is, however, that the great majority of people, decision and policy makers alike, still believe not only that accurate forecasting is possible, but also that uncertainty can be reliably assessed. Reality, however, shows otherwise, as this special section proves. This paper discusses forecasting accuracy and uncertainty, and distinguishes three distinct types of predictions: those relying on patterns for forecasting, those utilizing relationships as their basis, and those for which human judgment is the major determinant of the forecast. In addition, the major problems and challenges facing forecasters and the reasons why uncertainty cannot be assessed reliably are discussed using four large data sets. There is also a summary of the eleven papers included in this special section, as well as some concluding remarks emphasizing the need to be rational and realistic about our expectations and avoid the common delusions related to forecasting.     

Supply chain agility: review,classification and synthesis

Supply chain agility (SCA) has emerged as an important capability to remain competitive in this era of business uncertainty and turbulence. This study aims to gain knowledge of the current state of research on SCA, specifically to have conceptual clarity and synthesise future research avenues. To achieve these goals, we have carried out a systematic review of 118 research papers on SCA published from 1999 to 2016. The findings suggest that the domain has witnessed steady growth since its inception, but little consensus has been observed around its definition and boundaries. To counter these definitional ambiguities, we have presented a comprehensive definition of SCA. The paper further discusses SCA along three thematic categories: the first considers SCA from the strategic perspective, the second considers SCA as a capability and focuses on its enablers and the third explores the impact of SCA on performance. Finally, towards the conclusion, a holistic framework summarising the findings is presented.     

Optimal error and GMDH predictors: A comparison with some statistical techniques

This paper presents some results obtained in time series forecasting using two nonstandard approaches and compares them with those obtained by usual statistical techniques. In particular, a new method based on recent results of the General Theory of Optimal Algorithm is considered. This method may be useful when no reliable statistical hypotheses can be made or when a limited number of observations is available. Moreover, a nonlinear modelling technique based on Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) is also considered to derive forecasts. The well-known Wolf Sunspot Numbers and Annual Canadian Lynx Trappings series are analyzed; the Optimal Error Predictor is also applied to a recently published demographic series on Australian Births. The reported results show that the Optimal Error and GMDH predictors provide accurate one step ahead forecasts with respect to those obtained by some linear and nonlinear statistical models. Furthermore, the Optimal Error Predictor shows very good performances in multistep forecasting.     

《会计研究》三十年论文质量评价——基于《中国知网》引证文献的统计分析

通过对《会计研究》1980年创刊号始至2009年末期30年间发表的学术论文总体被引用状况的统计,描述了该刊三十年发表论文被引状况的分布及在不同时期的变化规律;通过对发表论文被引频率的排名及统计分析,获得在该刊发表的本学科优秀论文和活跃作者及任职机构;通过对论文作者单位的分析,发现该刊论文作者分布服从Lotka分布。结论表明,《会计研究》30年来发表的论文总体上反映了中国会计研究的历史发展,代表了各个年代中国会计研究的相应学术水平。