Identifying systemically important financial institutions in Turkey

This paper examines the systemic risk of financial firms in Turkey. Using Component Expected Shortfall, we provide estimates of systemic risk in Turkey using daily data from 2005 to 2018 and a comprehensive data set encompassing 54 financial firms. Empirical results show that the preponderance of systemic risk in the sample in Turkey is due to large commercial banks. Top ten systemically important financial institutions dominate systemic risk measures in Turkey and account for more than 90 % of total risk over the sample. Consequently, the risk in the Turkish financial system is concentrated in specific financial institutions and makes close monitoring of the top firms essential. Historical incidence of systemic risk in the sample shows elevated levels of systemic risk correspond to well-known external events. Finally, a bivariate VAR model shows that systemic risk is correlated with measures of global financial risks and has significant negative effects on the real economy particularly on industrial production. This is important from a financial stability point of view in that close monitoring of the systemic risk is important in maintaining a healthy financial system and a well- functioning market economy.     

中国金融机构的使命

2006年11月中非合作论坛北京峰会上,胡锦涛主席宣布了对非合作八项重大举措,赢得了全场经久不息的掌声,建立中非发展基金便是其中的一项.不过半年多时间,今年6月26日,由国家开发银行出资并承办的中非发展基金有限公司在京正式开业.     

新建金融机构信息化建设策略

本文作者于1999年11月负责组建中国东方资产管理公司信息科技部，以自己的实践经验和切身体会阐述了新建金融机构信息化建设策略问题，为处于起步阶段、正在进行IT规划的金融机构提供参考。本文还提出了关于信息技术资源共享、信息系统集中程度、IT外包尺度以及软件需求质量等困扰金融机构信息化建设的问题，以期引起业内人士共同探讨。[编者按]     

金融机构的资金管理

金融机构必须在整合服务提供商与需要向客户提供广泛服务两者之间取得平衡. 金融机构在选择服务提供商时,应当考虑其他资金管理工具不仅是基本的存放国外同业账户(nostro)的服务提供及其相关成本.     

构建区域型农村金融机构体系

与农户和农村微小型企业信贷需求特点相适应的农村金融机构,更多的应该具有地方性、区域性、小型化、草根性、非正式性等特点。因此,构建与之相应的农村金融机构体系是最佳选择。调研结论从调研样本区域农村金融供求两个角度的分析中,可以得到基本结论:从县域层次考察,金融机构多元化状况基本形成,但从与农户金融服务的提供、从乡域层次角度考察,金融机构的多元化严重不足。中国农村领域不缺大型金融机构,但缺乏离农民较近、     

Shareholders: An unexplored opportunity for Australian financial institutions

While Australian financial institutions have recognised for many years the need to segment their customer base and develop niche marketing strategies, those that are listed on the Australian Stock Exchange appear to have ignored a substantial and powerful pool of potential customers — their shareholders. This paper reviews the shareholder marketing strategies adopted by 12 listed Australian banks and building societies. It looks at the cost of customers, the value of converting shareholders to customers and reviews the shareholder loyalty programmes being offered. This paper argues that banks in Australia are ignoring this important pool of potential customers. The author develops the view that the banks and building societies have failed to maximise shareholder value as they have few processes in place to target this important sector.     

Measuring and testing for the systemically important financial institutions

This paper analyzes ΔCoVaR proposed by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2011) as a tool for identifying/ranking systemically important institutions. We develop a test of significance of ΔCoVaR that allows determining whether or not a financial institution can be classified as being systemically important on the basis of the estimated systemic risk contribution, as well as a test of dominance aimed at testing whether or not, according to ΔCoVaR, one financial institution is more systemically important than another. We provide an empirical application on a sample of 26 large European banks to show the importance of statistical testing when using ΔCoVaR, and more generally also other market-based systemic risk measures, in this context.     

Spillovers in risk of financial institutions

ABSTRACT

We analyse the total and directional spillovers across a set of financial institution systemic risk state variables: credit risk, real estate market risk, interest rate risk, interbank liquidity risk and overall market risk. We examine the response of the spillover levels, within the set of systemic risk state variables, to a number of events in the financial markets and to initiatives undertaken by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. The relationship between the time-varying spillovers and policy-related events is analysed using a multiple structural break estimation procedure and looking at the temporary increases in the spillover indices. Our sample includes five European Union countries: core countries France and Germany, periphery countries Spain and Italy, and a reference country, the UK. We show that national stock markets and real estate markets have a leading role in shock transmission across selected state variables. However, the role of the other variables reverses over the course of the crisis. We document that the total and net spillover indices react strongly to the events relating to financial assistance packages in Europe.     

Capital management in mutual financial institutions

Capital management by mutual financial institutions (such as credit unions) provides a valuable testing ground for assessing the impact of capital regulation and theories of managerial behaviour in financial institutions. Limited access to external equity capital means that capital accumulation must be met primarily by reliance on retained earnings. To deal with shocks to the capital position and avoid breaching regulatory requirements, managers will aim to have a buffer of capital in excess of the regulatory minimum. Moreover, mutual governance arrangements and an absence of capital market discipline mean that managers have discretion to set target capital ratios which differ significantly from industry averages. This paper develops a formal model of capital management and risk management in mutual financial institutions such as credit unions which reflects these industry characteristics. The model is tested using data from larger credit unions in Australia, which have been subject to the Basel Accord Risk Weighted Capital Requirements since 1993. The data supports the hypothesis that credit unions manage their capital position by setting a short term target profit rate (return on assets) which is positively related to asset growth and which is aimed at gradually removing discrepancies between the actual and desired capital ratio. Desired capital ratios vary significantly across credit unions. There is little evidence of short run adjustments to the risk of the asset portfolio to achieve a desired capital position.     

Quantifying structural subsidy values for systemically important financial institutions

Claimants to Systemically Important Financial Institutions (SIFIs) would receive transfers when governments are forced into bailouts. Ex ante, this bailout expectation lowers SIFIs’ daily funding costs. The funding cost advantage reflects both the structural level of the government support and the time-varying market valuation for such a support. Based on a large worldwide sample of banks, we estimate the value of the structural subsidy, by exploiting expectations of state support embedded in credit ratings and by applying the long-run average value of the rating bonus. The value of the structural subsidy was already sizable, 60 basis points (bp), as of the end-2007, before the crisis. It increased to 80 bp by the end-2009.     

Restoring confidence in troubled financial institutions after a financial crisis

After an unprecedented number of banks suspended operations in the during Panic of 1893, the head regulator of banks chartered by the United States government allowed about 100 banks to reopen after certifying their solvency. We evaluate whether actions by bank owners to change management, contract with depositors to extend liability maturity structure, write off bad assets, and/or inject capital affected bank survival and deposit retention. This historical episode is particularly informative because there was no expectation of government intervention. We find that contracting with depositors provided short-term benefits while dealing with bad assets was key for long-run viability.     

全球金融机构重新排名

始于去年爆发的次贷危机已经给全球金融机构带来了重大的影响,此危机尚还未结束,仍然像幽灵一样纠缠着全球的金融机构     

Pitfalls in using market prices to assess the financial condition of depository institutions

In this article we examine the information that stock prices provide about the financial condition of federally insured thrift institutions. In order to assess their financial condition from the different perspectives of stockholders and the federal insurer, we calculate the value of the put option of federal deposit insurance available to thrift institutions. Our results demonstrate that the two perspectives often provide, particularly for unhealthy institutions, quite different views of the financial condition of individual institutions.     

Customer service quality and financial performance among Australian retail financial institutions

This paper seeks to explore empirically the relationship between customer service quality and financial performance among a representative cross-section of Australian banks and credit unions by correlating customer service quality scores from a sample of retail customers with financial performance measures over a five-year period.Results show that all financial performance measures (interest margin, expense/income, return on assets and capital adequacy) are positively correlated with customer service quality scores. They also show that the credit unions strongly out-perform the banks in customer service quality and also for some measures of financial performance (interest margin and return on assets). The positive link between financial performance and customer service is thus supported in this study. Implications for the three groups of institutions are also discussed.     

Leverage and preemptive selling of financial institutions

In our model, financial firms’ leverage choices and asset sales impose negative externalities on other financial firms. This means that individual firms cannot determine their optimal capitalizations in isolation, but have to take the aggregate financial sector characteristics into account. In particular, they become more aggressive when their peers are more conservative. Furthermore, financial firms over-consume liquidity in equilibrium. For some parameter regions, small parameter changes can induce large differences in the equilibrium allocation of risk. Historical experience is not necessarily a good guide as to whether the prevailing equilibrium is fragile or not.     

美国金融监管机构新说

从表面上看,美国联邦监管体系是层层设防,壁垒森严,对资本市场的各种坏人坏事严防死守。但这套看似固若金汤的防线实际上是形同虚设,完全是骗人的假象     

Diversification at financial institutions and systemic crises

It is widely believed that diversification at financial institutions benefits the stability of the financial system. This paper shows that it also entails a cost: even though diversification reduces each institution’s individual probability of failure, it makes systemic crises more likely. When systemic crises induce additional costs (over and above individual failures), full diversification is no longer desirable as a result and the optimal degree of diversification may be arbitrarily low. We show that the analysis can be extended beyond diversification, such as to interbank insurance and financial integration.     

A framework for assessing the systemic risk of major financial institutions

In this paper we propose a framework for measuring and stress testing the systemic risk of a group of major financial institutions. The systemic risk is measured by the price of insurance against financial distress, which is based on ex ante measures of default probabilities of individual banks and forecasted asset return correlations. Importantly, using realized correlations estimated from high-frequency equity return data can significantly improve the accuracy of forecasted correlations. Our stress testing methodology, using an integrated micro–macro model, takes into account dynamic linkages between the health of major US banks and macro-financial conditions. Our results suggest that the theoretical insurance premium that would be charged to protect against losses that equal or exceed 15% of total liabilities of 12 major US financial firms stood at $110 billion in March 2008 and had a projected upper bound of $250 billion in July 2008.