Business-model (intent)-based accounting

We discuss how basing financial reporting on an entity's business model is, in effect, basing financial reporting on management's intent with respect to the use, transfer or other disposition of an asset or liability. We provide several examples of existing International Financial Reporting Standards and US Generally Accepted Accounting Principles that permit or require intent-based accounting. We describe the meaning and consequences of basing the accounting for financial assets on management's intentions for realising value from those assets. We analyse the positive and negative features of intent-based accounting in the context of the Financial Accounting Standards Board's and International Accounting Standards Board's conceptual frameworks, specifically, the qualitative characteristics relevance and comparability and the objective of financial reporting, and apply that analysis to existing and proposed guidance for measuring financial assets. We also discuss evidence from academic research on the measurement of financial assets.     

Asset fire sales (and purchases) in equity markets

This paper examines institutional price pressure in equity markets by studying mutual fund transactions caused by capital flows from 1980 to 2004. Funds experiencing large outflows tend to decrease existing positions, which creates price pressure in the securities held in common by distressed funds. Similarly, the tendency among funds experiencing large inflows to expand existing positions creates positive price pressure in overlapping holdings. Investors who trade against constrained mutual funds earn significant returns for providing liquidity. In addition, future flow-driven transactions are predictable, creating an incentive to front-run the anticipated forced trades by funds experiencing extreme capital flows.     

史海回眸(一)——唐代封建经济的繁荣与私人高利贷的兴盛

在中国漫长的封建社会中,王朝建立后较长时期的政治稳定及经济发展,必然导致商品货币关系的活跃。有唐一代,在货币已成为主要的支付手段和财富的主要形式的情况下,政府与官僚、地主、商贾一样,都在以最大的热情追逐和猎取货币,能够迅速实现钱币生息增殖的官、私高利贷于是迅速繁荣兴旺起来。其中,民间私人高利贷在整个社会经济领域中分布更为广泛,发展更为迅速,对封建经济的腐蚀分解作用,也就远较官高利贷为烈。唐代有关私人高利贷的法律制度、文契范式、利率规定等,不仅展示了封建国家进行民间融资管理的基本特点,对我们近年来讨论的民间金融发展问题,也不无启发和借鉴意义。     

Decomposing financial (in)stability in emerging economies

The analysis of the build-up of risks in emerging economies have traditionally been scarce and focused mostly on external risks, despite the recent substantial development of their financial system. This paper builds an index of financial vulnerabilities tailored to emerging economies, grouping 32 indicators around four poles: valuation and risk appetite, imbalances in the non-financial sector, financial sector vulnerabilities, and global vulnerabilities. It adopts a model-free approach, purposely departing from early warning models or complex econometric constructs, and rely on data made already available by international organisations. Our index of financial vulnerabilities enables a granular mapping of where risk originates and how it spreads to other parts of the financial system. Using various data visualisation tools and benefitting from the flexibility of our index’s methodology, we are able build a narrative of the evolution of financial stability in emerging economies from 2005 to 2015. Finally, we also discuss the relation between our index and both the business cycle (proxied by GDP) and the credit cycle (proxied by the credit-to-GDP gap).     

Euclidean (dis)similarity in financial network analysis

Interdependence among financial return series primarily originate from correlation between underlying assets. However, correlation fully describes interdependence only if the financial system behaves linearly and if an assumption of multivariate normal distribution additionally holds true. At the same time, with intrinsic z score normalization, correlation ignores means (expected return) and variances (risk) when calibrating the interdependence. Such oversight raises the significant question of whether security return networks can be realistically modelled and interpreted by market correlations. This paper proposes the Euclidean (dis)similarity metric which enables incorporation of risk and return along with the primary correlation component. We apply this metric to explain the collective behavior of the MSCI world market and compare the results with other correlation networks. Findings show that realized volatility accounts for 71% of the observed topology whereas correlation explains only 29% of market structure. No evidence was found supporting the importance of expected return. Power law exponents and degree distributions reveal that the centrality of hub nodes are considerably higher in the Euclidean as opposed to correlation networks. Accordingly, the importance and influence of central countries (like US and Japan hubs) in the spreading of high volatility is considerably higher than what correlation networks report.     

Performance analysis of a collateralized fund obligation (CFO) equity tranche

This article examines the performance of the junior tranche of a collateralized fund obligation (CFO), i.e. the residual claim (equity) on a securitized portfolio of hedge funds. We use a polynomial goal programming model to create optimal portfolios of hedge funds, conditional to investor preferences and diversification constraints (maximum allocation per strategy). For each portfolio, we build CFO structures that have different levels of leverage, and analyze both the stand-alone performance as well as potential diversification benefits (low systematic risk exposures) of investing in the equity tranche of these structures. We find that the unconstrained mean-variance portfolio yields a high performance, but greater exposure to systematic risk. We observe the exact opposite picture in the case of unconstrained optimization, where a skewness bias is added, thus proving the existence of a trade-off between stand-alone performance and low exposure to systematic risk factors. We provide evidence that leveraged exposure to these hedge fund portfolios through the structuring of CFOs creates value for the equity tranche investor, even during the recent financial crisis.     

Accounting and financial policy at Schneider (1837-75)

This article deals with financial accounting and financial strategy at Schneider during the period of early French industrialization. The charging of all capital expenditure to net income led both to an underestimation of assets and a reduction of distributable income. Schneider managed to reconcile this accounting choice with a generous dividend policy. The means by which the company's capital was increased are also considered.     

Real (adaptation) options and the valuation of equity: some empirical evidence

Data from 1,374 firms across four broad industrial groupings are used to assess the contribution that real (adaptation) options make to overall equity values. The analysis indicates that real (adaptation) options make a significant contribution to the equity value of firms with a market to book ratio (of equity) of around unity or less. As the market to book ratio grows beyond this level, however, the contribution made by real (adaptation) options decays quickly away and equity values are mainly comprised of the present value of the dividends that firms are expected to pay. This means that for around one in every five of the firms in our sample real (adaptation) options make a significant contribution to overall equity value. Thus, while linear equity valuation models would seem to be appropriate for the substantial majority of firms on which our sample is based, there is a sizeable minority of firms where real (adaptation) options have a significant impact on equity values. For this latter group of firms there will be a non-linear relationship between equity value and its determining variables. This has important implications for the regression procedures that are applied in this area of accounting research.     

Predicting financial crises: The (statistical) significance of the signals approach

The signals approach as an early-warning system has been fairly successful in detecting crises, but it has so far failed to gain popularity in the scientific community because it cannot distinguish between randomly achieved in-sample fit and true predictive power. To overcome this obstacle, we test the null hypothesis of no correlation between indicators and crisis probability in three applications of the signals approach to different crisis types. To that end, we propose bootstraps specifically tailored to the characteristics of the respective datasets. We find (1) that previous applications of the signals approach yield economically meaningful results; (2) that composite indicators aggregating information contained in individual indicators add value to the signals approach; and (3) that indicators which are found to be significant in-sample usually perform similarly well out-of-sample.     

美国金融业信息保障战略(待续)

信息安全概念发展到“信息保障”之后,信息的安全属性已经与有效的信息安全管理密不可分。美国政府在信息保障工作方面进行了长期的实践,在总结了大量的经验、教训的基础上,制定了美国信息保障国家战略。日前,信息安全国家重点实验室翻译了这部战略中的大部分文件,本刊将分三部分就金融业信息保障战略的主要内容和相关背景材料作详细介绍。     

The effects of ownership structure on dividend policy: Evidence from seasoned equity offerings (SEOs)

This paper examines the effects of ownership structure on dividend policy, specifically the role of controlling shareholders in shaping dividend policy in a sample of firms that pay dividends and issue new equity simultaneously. The results show that managers in weakly governed firms are more likely to initiate customized dividends to meet outside large shareholders' needs while simultaneously using costly external capital to finance new investment projects. This paper contributes to the existing literature on agency problems by explaining why firms engage in this suboptimal dividend policy: it allows large shareholders to extract private benefits.     

The impact of SFAS No. 123(R) on financial statement conservatism

SFAS No. 123(R) requires firms to recognize the fair value of stock options as compensation expense over the vesting period of the options. Thus, SFAS No. 123(R) leads to an overall increase in financial statement conservatism. However, it is not known whether SFAS No. 123(R) increases conditional and/or unconditional conservatism. Because the different forms of conservatism have different implications for the quality of earnings, I investigate which types of conservatism are impacted by SFAS No. 123(R) to gain insight into the ramifications of the Standard. I find that SFAS No. 123(R) leads to an increase in both unconditional and conditional conservatism. I additionally find that the Standard causes an increased negative relation between contemporaneous economic gains and income. These findings hold outside of the sample period and under a non-priced based model of conservatism.     

How (not) to pay for advice: A framework for consumer financial protection

This paper investigates the determinants of the compensation structure for brokers who advise customers regarding the suitability of financial products. Our model explains why brokers are commonly compensated indirectly through contingent commissions paid by product providers, even though this compensation structure could lead to biased advice. When customers are wary of the adviser's incentives, contingent commissions can be an effective incentive tool to induce the adviser to learn which specialized product is most suitable for the specific needs of customers. If, instead, customers naively believe they receive unbiased advice, high product prices and correspondingly high commissions become a tool of exploitation. Policy intervention that mandates disclosure of commissions can protect naive consumers and increase welfare. However, prohibiting or capping commissions could have the unintended consequence of stifling the adviser's incentive to acquire information. More vigorous competition benefits consumers and reduces exploitation, but firms have limited incentives to educate naive customers.     

第五届中国金融信息化发展论坛演讲精选(技术篇)

影响金融业务顺利开展和改革创新的因素很多,最为重要的因素之一是金融技术。它在整个银行业务运营中似乎并不显眼,却一直是推动金融业务发展和形成核心竞争力的关键要素。因此,在每年一度的金融展上,无论主题、形式怎样变,依靠先进技术完善业务及管理的本质都始终未变。2004年第五届中国信息化发展论坛关于金融技术方案及作用的探讨再次证明了这一点。这些技术方案无一不针对金融业务量身定制,无一不与金融业务紧密相连、息息相关,而且无一不具有领先性。这些技术方案如何成为业务不可或缺的一部分,又如何助业务一臂之力呢?以下“精彩回放…     

第五届中国金融信息化发展论坛演讲精选(银行篇)

2004年9月12日～13日,第五届中国金融信息化发展论坛在北京展览馆报告厅隆重举行。今年论坛的主题为“中国金融信息化的未来发展之路”。在两场主题论坛上,共有来自银行业和IT业的12位嘉宾登台演讲,从不同的角度对中国金融信息化的未来进行展望。在银行方面,中国人民银行副行长苏宁、中国工商银行副行长张衢、中国人民银行征信管理局局长戴根有、中国银行股份有限公司信息科技部总经理张建游、中国银行业监督管理委员会信息中心主任佟建民和中国银联股份有限公司总裁万建华依次发言。本刊选取现场发言的精选内容呈现给读者。苏宁:努力推动…     

Monetary policy and financial (in)stability: An integrated micro–macro approach

Evidence on central banks’ twin objective, monetary and financial stability, is scarce. We suggest an integrated micro–macro approach with two core virtues. First, we measure financial stability directly at the bank level as the probability of distress. Second, we integrate a microeconomic hazard model for bank distress and a standard macroeconomic model. The advantage of this approach is to incorporate micro information, to allow for non-linearities and to permit general feedback effects between financial distress and the real economy. We base the analysis on German bank and macro data between 1995 and 2004. Our results confirm the existence of a trade-off between monetary and financial stability. An unexpected tightening of monetary policy increases the probability of distress. This effect disappears when neglecting microeffects and non-linearities, underlining their importance. Distress responses are largest for small cooperative banks, weak distress events, and at times when capitalization is low. An important policy implication is that the separation of financial supervision and monetary policy requires close collaboration among members in the European System of Central Banks and national bank supervisors.     

The real effects of financial (dis)integration: A multi-country equilibrium analysis of Europe

Using data from 15 European Union economies, we quantify the real effects of supply-side frictions due to the financial disintegration of European countries since the 2008 financial crisis. We develop a multi-country general equilibrium model with heterogeneous countries and destination-specific financial frictions. Financial institutions allocate capital endogenously across countries, determining the cost of capital to firms and the wealth of nations. The cost of financial disintegration is reduced access to capital for firms which results in lower output. Financial disintegration leads to a 0.54% fall in output in Europe since the crisis. We also estimate benefits of further financial integration.