2013年广西金融业发展回顾及2014年展望

本文以人民银行货币政策调控为视角,在简要回顾2013年广西金融业改革发展成就的基础上,深入分析了当前国际、国内和广西形势发展将要面临的新变化、新特点和新问题,对2014年广西金融业改革发展重点任务进行了展望.     

Evolution in the rationales of foresight in Europe

The traditional mechanistic approach to Strategic Thinking influenced the rationales and consequently the early experiences of Technology Forecasting in Europe. On the other hand, the more recent dynamic non-linear approaches to Strategic Thinking and a gradual regionalization of the innovation policy have favoured the replacement of Forecasting with Foresight and, more recently, with Regional Foresight, where the complexity of phenomena is taken into greater account. In fact, during the last few decades, a transition has occurred from a mainly hierarchic capitalism to a flexible one. At micro-economic level, this has caused a gradual transition from hierarchical organisational models with tangible assets to network organisational models, which are knowledge-based and face complex and unsettled scenarios.

This paper tries to demonstrate that the concepts of Forecasting and Foresight cannot be considered outside of this context and of changes that have occurred in Strategic Thinking, where the needs for more global and interdisciplinary views of problems are striving to integrate Strategic management and Entrepreneurship into the new concept of Strategic Entrepreneurship.

In order to demonstrate this evolution in the rationales of foresight and in its applications, this work analyses and compares some among the more significant experiences of transition towards Regional Foresight in Europe.     

实物期权在项目信贷评估中的运用

近20年来,众多国内外学者对实物期权进行了大量研究并得出结论:决策灵活性确实增加了项目整体评估价值。但这些研究基本上是从项目管理者角度进行分析的。本文着重从银行角度探讨了实物期权在信贷评估过程中的作用,结果表明:在传统的以折现现金流法(DiscountedCashFlow,DCF)为主导的项目评估过程中融入实物期权思想,将使对高科技类项目的评价更加客观、全面。对项目投资决策选择权的分析可以加强信贷工作人员对项目贷款风险趋势的事前判断,对项目在未来运行中的不确定性进行评估,并通过在合同中增加约束性条款,实现项目权利向银行权利的转化,以降低银行信贷风险。     

Role of banks in financial inclusion in India

Financial inclusion is emerging as a new paradigm of economic growth that plays major role in driving away the poverty from the country. It refers to delivery of banking services to masses including privileged and disadvantaged people at an affordable terms and conditions. Financial inclusion is important priority of the country in terms of economic growth and advanceness of society. It enables to reduce the gap between rich and poor population. In the current scenario financial institutions are the robust pillars of progress, economic growth and development of the economy. The present study aims to examine the impact of financial inclusion on growth of the economy over a period of seven years. Secondary data is used which has been analyzed by multiple regression model as a main statistical tool. Results of the study found positive and significant impact of number of bank branch and Credit deposit ratio on GDP of the country, whereas an insignificant impact has been observed in case of ATMs growth on Indian GDP.     

Analysis of the hysteresis of unemployment in Mexico in the face of macroeconomic shocks

This research presents the behavior of the Mexican unemployment rate and shows the dependence with own history and macro variables. The concept of hysteresis or persistence tries to separate this inertia in the unemployment rate and some macroeconomic and endogenous factors. The results show a high inertia in the Mexican labor market, justified by the monetary levels and the dependence of the investment levels, considering the shocks of exports that affect the unemployment in the long term.     

2013年广西银行业发展回顾及2014年展望

2013年,广西银行业继续稳健发展呈现出良好态势.面向未来,广西银行业要紧紧抓住用好广西经济发展的重大历史机遇,以改革创新为引领,着力助推地方经济发展升级,着力加快自身经营转型,着力提高服务水平,着力提升综合实力、抗风险能力和市场竞争力,为实现广西“富民强桂”新跨越和建设“美丽广西”做出新贡献.     

新形势下金融服务贸易出口策略探讨

世界贸易自由化和我国金融业的开放给我国金融机构发展和金融服务的出口提供了良好的机遇.本文对金融服务出口的目前的形势做了较全面的分析,指出了限制我国金融服务贸易发展的问题,并针对这些问题提出了相应的扩大金融服务出口的对策.希望对金融机构制定金融服务出口策略有所帮助.     

完善我国放贷人法律规制的路径选择

放贷人作为民间借贷的重要业务主体,以法律形式对其规制将使民间借贷的合法性得以确定,对解决中小企业融资困境与发展农村经济有着极其重要的意义。本文主要采用比较和规范分析的研究方法,通过国外（地区）放贷人的相关立法经验与特点的研习,并在此基础上分析我国放贷人立法之不足,最终从市场准入、经营机制、监管框架与借款人利益保护等方面提出完善我国放贷人法律规制的路径和制度。     

2013年广西保险业发展回顾及2014年展望

2013年,广西保险业坚持以科学发展观为指导,不断更新发展思路,积极转变发展方式,实现了快速发展,行业整体实力逐步提高,服务领域不断拓宽,发展环境更加优化,社会影响日益扩大,在现代金融、社会保障、防灾减灾、农业保障、社会管理等五大体系中发挥着越来越重要的作用,为服务广西经济建设和社会发展做出了积极贡献.未来一段时期,广西保险业仍将紧紧围绕广西经济社会发展大局,把握稳中求进、改革创新的工作基调,不断提高服务地方经济社会发展的能力和水平.     

Evidence of Differences in the Effectiveness of Safety-Net Management in European Union Countries

European Union (EU) financial safety nets are social contracts that assign uncertain benefits and burdens to taxpayers in different member countries. To help national officials to assess their taxpayers’ exposures to loss from partner countries, this paper develops a way to estimate how well markets and regulators in 14 of the EU-15 countries have controlled deposit-institution risk-shifting in recent years. Our method traverses two steps. The first step estimates leverage, return volatility, and safety-net benefits for individual EU financial institutions. For stockholder-owned banks, input data feature 1993–2004 data on stock-market capitalization. Parallel accounting values are used to calculate enterprise value (albeit less precisely) for mutual savings institutions. The second step uses the output from the first step as input into regression models of safety-net benefits and interprets the results. Parameters of the second-step models express differences in the magnitude of safety-net subsidies and in the ability of financial markets and regulators in member countries to restrain the flow of safety-net subsidies to commercial banks and savings institutions. We conclude by showing that banks from high-subsidy and low-restraint countries have initiated and received the lion’s share of cross-border M&A activity. The efficiency, stabilization, and distributional effects of allowing banks to and from differently subsidized environments to expand their operations in partner countries pose policy issues that the EU ought to address.     

我国农村公共投资发展态势分析

农村公共投资主要由人力资本投资、生产和生活投资两大部分组成。改革开放以来,农村人力资本投资总量在逐年增长,但地区差异显著;伴随我国综合国力的不断增强,国家用于农村生产和农民生活方面投资的绝对额也在相应提高,但农业支出占财政总支出的比重却呈总体下降趋势。应全面提高财政保障农村公共事业水平,加快城乡统一的公共服务制度建设。     

Analysis of Credit Risks in Asset-Backed Securitization Transactions in Singapore

Asset-backed securitization (ABS) is a relatively new financial instrument in Singapore's capital market, which has been accepted by developers (originators) as an alternative source of financing. Credit assessment and rating requirements have not been imposed on the ABS bond issues. Default-risk evaluation has also been understated, if not omitted, in the process of structuring ABS deals. This is the first study that applies a theoretical default-risky swaps valuation model to evaluate credit risks in ABS bonds in Singapore. The Monte-Carlo simulation results, based on the Century Square shopping mall ABS case, show significant effects of the changes in rental volatility and default-free interest rate volatility on the default-risk premium of swap. More specifically, an increase in the rental volatility reduces the default-risky swap values significantly. However, an increase in the instantaneous default-free interest rate volatility increases the default-risk premium of swaps, and this effect is only observed in the high default-free interest rate volatility regime (above 20 percent). The results suggest that the rental dynamics of the securitized real estate are critical in determining the default risks of ABS deals. The fixed-rate (coupon yield) and floating-rate (rental cash flows) should therefore be adequately determined to reflect the default risks, which may be caused by the rental dynamics of the securitized real estate.     

The Roles of Some Key Stakeholders in the Future of Accounting Education in Australia

This article explores the role of institutional and systemic leadership in changing higher education in accounting in Australia. In particular, it discusses the roles of the Australian Learning and Teaching Council, the Australian Business Deans' Council Teaching and Learning Network, and the professional accounting bodies in meeting the challenges confronting accounting education in the tertiary sector today and in the coming years. The intersection of these leadership roles is exemplified in an accounting discipline research project that explores the critical non-technical skills stakeholders require in graduate students and discusses stakeholders' roles and responsibilities in their development .     

The Public Role of Actuaries in Private Pensions in Canada

Abstract

Actuaries have played prominent public roles in the development of occupational pension plans and social security arrangements in Canada. These roles include advising governments and government-appointed committees about regulatory structures, establishing funding standards, actively participating in regulatory functions, and pioneering valuation work for pension plans covering public sector employees. The formation in 1965 of the Canadian Institute of Actuaries led to the accreditation of actuaries in pension and tax legislation and to the development of actuarial standards of practice for pension work.     

Model of associativity in the production chain in Agroindustrial SMEs

This research aims to propose a model of associativity in the productive chain of the micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MIPYMES) of citrus agroindustrial in the north of the state of Veracruz, Mexico; With the purpose of explaining the extent to which direct actors, support services, environment, relations and government policies determine the associativity in the production chain. The problem that originates this investigation is the lack of knowledge about the operation of the agro-industrial citrus MIPYMES in this area of the country. The result of this research is a model that represents the operation of these companies in associativity with the productive chain considering the elements that form it, proposing alternatives to generate a greater cooperation or coalition of the companies that interact to obtain mutual benefits.     

缩小我国区域经济发展差距的税收政策研究

近年来,我国经济在快速发展的同时,区域经济发展差距也日趋明显。作为国家宏观调控主要手段的税收政策是影响区域经济发展差距的一个重要因素。导致我国区域经济发展差距过大的税收政策因素包括:税制存在缺陷、税收优惠政策逆向调节、税收返还制度设计不合理等。为发挥好税收政策在缩小区域经济发展差距方面的调节作用,当前应进一步深化税制改革,完善税收优惠政策和税收返还制度。     

Voluntary Disclosure of Information in a Setting in which Endowment of Information has Productive Value

Abstract:  This paper introduces a model capturing managers' disclosure policies in settings in which disclosure is rewarded by the financial market because disclosure implies that managers are endowed with information and endowment of information may potentially improve the firm's productive efficiency. It provides sufficient condition for a threshold disclosure equilibrium to obtain and compares disclosure policies in a setting in which endowment of information improves the firm's productive efficiency with disclosure policies in a setting in which endowment of information has no impact on the firm's productive efficiency. Managers' disclosure policies are shown to depend crucially on whether the endowment of information is exogenous or endogenous. When the endowment of information is exogenous, an increase in the usefulness of information in improving the firm's productive efficiency leads to a decrease in the disclosure threshold and hence an increase in the amount of information disclosed. In contrast, when the endowment of information is endogenous, an increase in the usefulness of information in improving the firm's productive efficiency has no effect on the disclosure threshold but leads to a decrease in the probability with which information is acquired and hence a decrease in the amount of information disclosed. As, in the threshold disclosure equilibrium, the net present value of information acquisition arising from any increase in production efficiency is negative, an increase in the usefulness of information in improving the firm's productive efficiency thus reduces the inefficiency caused by information acquisition.     

The role of venture capital in SME loans in China

We examine the role of venture capital (VC) in small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) loans through samples on the National Equities Exchange and Quotations (NEEQ) in China. We find that VC backup can effectively improve SMEs’ access to bank loans, especially short-term loans, at lower costs, and loans without collateral. VC backed loans are also less likely to default and positively related to SMEs’ performance. Our findings further suggest that VC backup reduces the information asymmetry between banks and SMEs through both “hard” information of better-quality financial statement and “soft” information of SMEs’ creditability. Evidenced by enhanced SME financing conditions and bank efficiency in loan allocation, the combined debt-equity financing scheme can be a meaningful new ingredient in the financial infrastructure of the largest emerging market.     

Future of secularism in India

The question of future of secularism in India is very important particularly at this juncture. Secularism was never meant to be the indifference to religion by our leaders and freedom fighters, who realised that India is a highly religious country. That is why even the most orthodox Hindus and Muslims accepted it as a viable ideology for India. But after independence Indian secularism followed a tortuous course and religious fundamentalism has grown dangerously in the last few decades. The Bhartiya Janta Party and the Sangh Parivar, in particular, are likely to intensify the Hindutva agenda in the future. In these political circumstances the future of secularism does not seem to be bright in the short run. But in the long run, India’s bewildering culture of pluralism, dating back many centuries, economic progress in the future and the well-established Indian democracy are factors that point to a more stable and secular polity.     

Investigating the determinants of banking coexceedances in Europe in the summer of 2008

We examine the nature, extent and possible causes of bank contagion in a high frequency setting. Looking at six major European banks in the summer and autumn of 2008, we model the lower coexceedances of these banks returns. We find that market microstructure, volatility (measured by range based measures) and limited general market conditions are key determinants of these coexceedances. We find some evidence that herding occurred.