DOES ADVERTISING MATTER? ESTIMATING THE IMPACT OF CIGARETTE ADVERTISING ON SMOKING AMONG YOUTH IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

The goal of this paper is to evaluate the impact of cigarette advertising on smoking among youth in developing countries. Using micro‐level data from 19 developing countries, we examine the structural relationship between smoking behavior and advertising exposure and the reduced‐form relationship between smoking and advertising bans. Instrumental variables are used to address the endogeneity of advertising exposure. Country‐specific unobserved heterogeneity is further reduced by controlling for measures of antismoking sentiment and cigarette prices. After accounting for the endogeneity of advertising, we find that the positive correlation between smoking and advertising exposure in our sample can be largely explained by the disproportionately higher propensity of smokers to observe advertising rather than a direct causal effect of advertising on smoking. (JEL I12, I18)     

OLD WINE IN A NEW BOTTLE: TRADE OPENNESS AND FDI FLOWS—ARE THE EMERGING ECONOMIES CONVERGING?

This study uses the club convergence methodology of Phillips and Sul (2007) for emerging economies spanning the period 1960–2013 to explore whether such convergence exists and whether the increase of international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows has been a global or club phenomenon. We find the absence of a homogeneous convergence club. The results for FDI outflows also reach similar conclusions, suggesting the formation of convergence clubs by stage of development. These results suggest that policies that promote convergence in trade openness and FDI flows would permit countries to benefit from mutual interactions and by greater consistency and efficiency in trade regimes, thus permitting these countries to benefit from openness leading to a race to the top rather than bottom. (JEL F41, C33)     

HOW BIASED ARE MEASURES OF CYCLICAL MOVEMENTS IN PRODUCTIVITY AND HOURS?

The movement of hours worked over the business cycle is an important input into the estimation of many key parameters in macroeconomics. Unfortunately, the available data on hours do not correspond precisely to the concept required for accurate inference. We study one source of mismeasurement—that the most commonly used source data measure hours paid instead of hours worked. In particular, we focus our attention on salaried workers, a group for whom the gap between hours paid and hours worked is likely to be large. We show that the measurement gap varies significantly and positively with changes in labor demand. As a result, we estimate that the standard deviations of the workweek and of total hours worked are 27 and 5 percent larger, respectively, than published measures of hours suggest. We also find that this measurement gap is unlikely to be the source of the acceleration in published measures of productivity in the early 2000s.     

ARE LAC COOPERATIVE AND COMMERCIAL BANKS SO DIFFERENT IN THEIR MANAGEMENT OF NON‐PERFORMING LOANS?

This paper assesses technical efficiency in the management of non‐performing loans (NPLs) in the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) banking industry. To that end, Data Envelopment Analysis techniques are employed with data from the years 2013 to 2016 on a sample of 307 LAC cooperative and commercial banks. Our main contribution to existing literature is that differences of efficiency between cooperative banks and commercial banks are assessed as the result of the different capacities of their managers – managerial efficiency – and the so‐called programme efficiency, which represents differences in the technology used by these two categories of entities. Our principal result suggests that the technology used by cooperative banks in the management of NPLs is more efficient than the technology of commercial banks.     

HOW COOPERATIVE ARE SAVINGS AND CREDIT COOPERATIVES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES?: AN ANALYSIS OF DATASETS FROM UGANDA

Building successful savings and credit cooperatives (SACCOs) that actually embody the cooperative principles is a challenge to development agencies. Although SACCOs form the majority of microfinance providers in many developing countries, the most recent literature on microfinance governance and performance has given little reference to the longstanding body of relevant cooperative literature. SACCO representation in microfinance datasets is biased. Drawing on so‐far unexploited datasets of Ugandan SACCOs and savings groups, this paper empirically analyses policy debate regarding SACCO‐ and savings group regulation. The findings point to the relevance of practically implementing the principle of ‘cooperation between cooperatives’ to ensure effective governance at SACCO level. Moreover, the paper introduces two new measures, based on members' savings and shares, which could become useful tools to track the application of cooperative principles in developing countries, and hence improve evidence‐based policy‐making for SACCOs.     

WHERE ARE THE WOMEN? GENDER,LABOR, AND DISCOURSE IN THE NOIDA EXPORT PROCESSING ZONE AND DELHI

Abstract

Export processing zones (EPZs) are like islands of globalization. Much of the literature on EPZs and export-oriented industries (EOIs) notes a preponderance of women who are constructed as “cheap,” “nimble fingered,” and “docile” labor. This literature is dominated by socialist feminist thinkers, and this paper argues that there is a need to incorporate the insights of postmodern feminist thinkers. The article focuses on the role that language, discourse, and subjectivity play in the gendering process in handmade jewelry production in the Noida Export Processing Zone (NEPZ) and in the ranch production units related by common ownership in Delhi, India. It thus gives “voices” to women and men, and brings out their agency in structuring the labor market. The study confirms that gender division of labor is a product of discursive and material practices that are reproduced through discourses into which different actors invest, and that feed into the gendered subjective identities of these actors.     

ARE COGNITIVE SKILLS RELEVANT IN GENDER EARNINGS DECOMPOSITIONS?

While cognitive skills are known to play an important role in labour market success, empirical evidence is mainly concentrated in its effect on returns to schooling. Evidence on the role of cognitive skills in gender earnings gap decompositions is virtually absent. I use two approaches to investigate the potential for cognitive skills to affect the size and pattern of the unexplained component of the earnings gap (‘relative discrimination’) across the wage distribution, using data from the International Adult Literacy Survey (IALS). It has been shown that when the raw cognitive score is used to control for cognitive skills, the return to schooling cognitive skills is generally underestimated. Once a distinction is made about the origins of cognitive skills (acquired in school versus outside the school), the returns to cognitive skills can vary depending on their origin. I find that using the raw score to control for cognitive skills does not result in any significantly different estimates of the unexplained component of the gap compared to when cognitive skills are not controlled for. However, once cognitive skills by origin of skill are used in place of total cognitive skills, the results change substantially for three of the five countries examined.     

ARE WAGE INCREASES IN CHINESE STATE INDUSTRY EFFICIENT? PRODUCTIVITY IN NANJING'S MACHINE-BUILDING INDUSTRY

Since China's economic reform began, wages in state enterprises have increased at rates much faster than the rate of price inflation. This paper investigates the source of this rapid wage increase for a sample of Chinese state-owned machine-building enterprises to determine whether increased wages can be best explained by changes in productivity, changes in the output market, or changes in input markets. CES production function estimates find the marginal product of labor was stagnant between 1980 and 1992 but initially higher than wages. Rising wages were therefore consistent with other evidence that the reform process cost the state sector its labor monopsony. ( JEL P31)     

OIL CURSE AND INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES: WHICH INSTITUTIONS ARE MOST VULNERABLE TO THE CURSE AND UNDER WHAT CIRCUMSTANCES?

This article extends recent analyses linking the alleged oil curse to a broader set of institutions (13 in number) than democracy, the institution that has received the most attention in the literature. It does so using panel data for over 100 countries between 1975 and 2005, wherever possible, and compares the effects obtained with several different measures of both the importance of oil and experience in the industry and of the interactions between them. Most importantly, instead of simply examining the effect of oil and experience in the industry on the contemporary levels of these various institutions, this study focuses on the effects on changes in the various institutional indicators from one decade to another. While not surprisingly our results reveal considerable sensitivity in the effects of oil resources, oil experience, and interactions across different specifications, they also suggest a number of important findings. The most robust of these are the significant negative effects of oil rents on bureaucratic quality and on socioeconomic conditions. We also find that the number of years since peak oil discovery has a positive effect on government stability, but a negative one on bureaucratic quality. When interactions are allowed for, still more negative effects on institutions are identified, at least partially re‐enforcing several of the institutional links in the oil curse hypothesis. (JEL O13, P16)     

HOW RELIABLE ARE CYCLICALLY ADJUSTED BUDGET BALANCES IN REAL TIME?

Cyclically adjusted budget balances (CABs) are often used to provide an indication of the structural state of public finances. This paper analyzes the reliability of these figures in real time. In a test of the ability to forecast the “final data,” we find that real‐time CABs are outperformed by a simpler methodology. Furthermore, we find that real‐time CABs have low power in detecting fiscal slippages and in correctly identifying fiscal improvements. Finally, we find that CABs are systematically less reliable under conditions of poor or deteriorating public finances, which means they are at their most unreliable precisely when they are needed most. (JEL H62, H87)     

ARE THERE PRODUCTIVITY SPILLOVERS FROM FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN CHINA?

We review previous literature on productivity spillovers of foreign direct investment (FDI) in China and conduct our own analysis using a firm‐level data set from a World Bank survey. We find that the evidence of FDI spillovers on the productivity of Chinese domestic firms is mixed, with many positive results largely due to aggregation bias or failure to control for endogeneity of FDI. Attempting over 6000 specifications that take into account forward and backward linkages, we fail to find evidence of systematic positive productivity spillovers from FDI in China.     

REMITTANCES AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT: SUBSTITUTES OR COMPLEMENTS IN ECONOMIC GROWTH?

Recent studies indicate that the effect of migrants’ remittances on the economic growth of receiving countries depends negatively on the level of development of the domestic financial sector. In this paper, we introduce a new indicator of financial development to measure the efficiency of the domestic banking system, and find the existence of complementarity between remittances and bank efficiency in economic growth, such that remittances promote growth only in countries whose banks function well. This result is robust to controls for other traditional measures of financial depth and institutional quality indicators.     

HOW TO VALUE THE POORER PROSPECTS OF YOUTH IN THE EARLY 1990s?

Young workers in the 1990s can expect greater economic insecurity, as well as lower average earnings, compared to older workers, or compared to the youth of previous decades. The cost of greater insecurity depends upon an individual's probability of unemployment, marginal utility of income gains/losses and the extent to which individuals can smooth consumption over time by borrowing and drawing down assets. Since unemployment insurance cutbacks and higher unemployment have increased the risk exposure of youth, changes in the expected value of their income may understate utility losses as measured by the change in certainty equivalent income.
This paper uses a behavioural microsimulation model to compare the impacts of 1971 and 1994 unemployment insurance legislation and unemployment rates in Canada. It calculates both the expected value of income changes and, using a Stone-Geary utility function, the change in inequality of well-being (as measured by certainty equivalent income) for youth and for prime age workers. Both calculations reveal that youth were disproportionately affected by Canada's changing labour market environment. Very few youth have enough assets to finance consumption during spells of unemployment.     

ARE LONG‐TERM INFLATION EXPECTATIONS WELL‐ANCHORED? EVIDENCE FROM THE EURO AREA AND THE UNITED STATES

This paper analyses the stability of long‐term inflation expectations and uncertainty, based on their sensitivity to innovations to observed inflation, short‐ and medium‐term forecast news. News is defined in a subjective sense and derived from revisions to shorter‐term fixed‐target forecasts. The assessment tests for presence of non‐linear effects, including regime changes during disinflation in the USA in the 1990s and the recent financial crisis. Stability is also investigated in terms of level evolution, based on a structural non‐linear and non‐Gaussian learning model to uncover the presence of a common trend underlying the long‐term dynamics of inflation, individual expectations, and uncertainty.     

HOW IMPORTANT ARE TERMS‐OF‐TRADE SHOCKS?

According to conventional wisdom, terms‐of‐trade shocks represent a major source of business cycles in emerging and poor countries. This view is largely based on the analysis of calibrated business‐cycle models. We argue that the view that emerges from empirical structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models is strikingly different. We estimate country‐specific SVARs using data from 38 countries and find that terms‐of‐trade shocks explain less than 10% of movements in aggregate activity. We then estimate key structural parameters of a three‐sector business‐cycle model country by country and find a disconnect between the importance assigned to terms‐of‐trade shocks by theoretical and SVAR models.     

LOST IN TRANSLATION? TEACHER TRAINING AND OUTCOMES IN HIGH SCHOOL ECONOMICS CLASSES

Using data from a 2006 survey of California high school economics classes, we assess the effects of teacher characteristics on student achievement. We estimate value‐added models of outcomes on multiple choice and essay exams, with matched classroom pairs for each teacher enabling random‐effects and fixed‐effects estimation. The results show a substantial impact of specialized teacher experience and college‐level coursework in economics. However, the latter is associated with higher scores on the multiple‐choice test and lower scores on the essay test, suggesting that a portion of teachers' content knowledge may be “lost in translation” when conveyed to their students. (JEL A21, I21)     

ARE DISAGREEMENTS AMONG MALE AND FEMALE ECONOMISTS MARGINAL AT BEST?: A SURVEY OF AEA MEMBERS AND THEIR VIEWS ON ECONOMICS AND ECONOMIC POLICY

The authors survey economists in the United States holding membership in the American Economic Association (AEA) to determine if there are significant differences in views between male and female economists on important policy issues. Controlling for place of current employment (academic institution with graduate program, academic institution—undergraduate only, government, for‐profit institution) and decade of PhD, the authors find many areas in which economists agree. However, important differences exist in the views of male and female economists on issues including the minimum wage, views on labor standards, health insurance, and especially on explanations for the gender wage gap and issues of equal opportunity in the labor market and the economics profession itself. These results lend support to the notion that gender diversity in policy‐making circles may be an important aspect in broadening the menu of public policy choices. (JEL A11, J78, A14)