我国主要肉类价格波动规律研究

本文基于2001年1月至2014年3月我国猪肉、鸡肉、牛肉和羊肉的月度数据,运用X12季节调整模型和H-P滤波法分析得出我国主要肉类价格波动规律,并进一步运用协方差分析法分析长期趋势、季节性变动、不规则变动对我国主要肉类价格波动的贡献。结果表明,价格变化的长期趋势是影响肉类价格波动的主要驱动因素,并根据研究结论提出相关政策建议。     

蔬菜肉类产品价格波动对宏观经济的影响及对策

物价上涨、尤其是与人民生活息息相关的蔬菜、肉类产品价格的上涨,给宏观经济及人民生活带来了极大挑战。从枣庄市有代表性的农贸市场和大型超市选取的相关样本中获得的数据来看,大部分蔬菜肉类产品的价格都在上涨。其原因在于:商品供不应求、节日因素、供应商和经销商的经营成本对价格的影响。我国有效解决相关商品价格涨幅差异大、市场监管不足、就业压力等问题,必须重视农业生产,走农业集约化道路,保证市场供应,稳定商品价格,加大监管力度,促进就业增加,从而保证宏观经济的平稳运行。     

基于供求关系的我国羊肉价格波动实证分析

随着我国国民收入不断提高,居民消费水平不断提升,羊肉产量及消费量快速增长,羊肉市场价格快速上涨,并出现了较大波动.以2000年～2015年我国羊肉供求量为样本分析这一时期我国羊肉市场价格变动.通过实证分析发现,我国羊肉市场价格与市场需求,国内产量以及上期市场价格存在显著关系,羊肉市场价格波动受供求关系影响较大.同时通过建立VAR模型从价格传导机制分析,发现国内供给量对羊肉价格和国内羊肉需求都有较大影响:最后提出通过引导养羊业发展,保证我国羊肉产量,稳定羊肉市场价格,促进我国养羊业畜牧业的健康发展.     

我国禽肉价格波动特征及影响因素分析

近年来禽肉价格波动频繁且幅度较大,对居民生活产生了一定影响。本文基于2005年1月至2013年7月国内禽肉价格的月度数据,从供求角度使用协整理论和误差修正模型对我国禽肉价格波动的影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明,猪肉价格、玉米价格、城市居民人均收入对我国禽肉价格波动有显著影响。相对而言,国际禽肉价格影响较温和。最后本文根据研究结果提出了相关政策建议。     

房地产价格波动的动态模型分析

本文从供需均衡分析入手,把房地产的需求分为生活必须品需求、奢侈品需求和投资品需求,通过对这三种需求的不同特点的分析,以及在实现短期均衡的特点和房地产市场调节过程的分析,发展房地产价格波动的规律。     

我国化肥价格波动趋势及影响因素的实证研究

本文分析了我国化肥市场价格波动的特征及影响因素。结果显示:我国化肥价格波动存在非常明显的集簇性、长期记忆性和非对称性;化肥价格的上涨源于"需求拉动"和"成本推动",目前来看,原材料成本因素对化肥价格波动的贡献尤为明显,而农民收入对化肥价格波动的贡献率要比人们预期的小,且以短期影响为主。     

消费品价格波动的关联效应分析——基于价格波动网络主导节点的实证研究

2011年,居民消费价格指数高位回落,全年上涨5.4%,但物价上涨的压力仍然存在。本文用复杂网络紧密度和介数概念,分别从两种角度定义一种商品对其余商品的影响力,并将影响力大的商品定义为主导节点。构建价格波动网络模型,引用广州市CPI统计范围内的34种消费品价格指数,分析影响力大的商品,进行对比分析,从而提出了调控消费品价格的政策建议。     

国际大宗商品价格波动对佛山工业经济影响的实证分析

近年来,国际大宗商品价格波动频繁。佛山作为制造业大市,受困于基础性原材料匮乏、工业产业结构不合理、自主创新能力不足等因素,工业经济易受到国际大宗商品价格波动的冲击。本文通过构建向量自回归模型(VAR),利用脉冲响应分析该冲击的效应,并提出相关政策建议。     

中国生猪价格周期性波动分析、展望及对策

2006年以来,中国生猪价格波动经历了三个半周期,呈现出价格波动周期日益延长、价格波动幅度前窄后宽、传统消费旺季作用逐渐消退等特征。其中既有生猪养殖自身规律、规模化养殖比例提升等内因的影响,也有上游行业价格变动、生猪疫情等外因的影响。综合来看,2019年非洲猪瘟疫情发展、规模化生猪养殖场补栏、气温条件变化及冬季的猪肉旺季消费等情况会对后续的生猪价格波动走势产生较大影响,至2020年春节前生猪价格持续走高。应通过加快生猪养殖产业结构升级、加强生猪市场信息服务体系建设、推进生猪产业链市场化发展等措施,有效减缓中国生猪价格周期波动的影响。     

Measuring the spatial price differences in China with regional price parity methods

The measurement of prices has been an important field in economics, and a spatial price index is very useful in comparing the standards of living and well-being across regions in a country. This paper intends to measure the regional price parities (RPPs) across different provincial areas in China with an urban sample of 140 goods and services in 2015 according to the framework of the International Comparison Program (ICP) methodology. The results show that the RPPs that were estimated with commonly used approaches, such as the Gini–Éltetö–Köves–Szulc (GEKS), Geary–Khamis (GK) and weighted country product dummy (WCPD), are only slightly different. The RPPs of three regions including Guangdong, Shanghai and Zhejiang are greater than 1 (with Beijing = 1), while the other 27 regions are all lower than 1, which represents price levels that are less than Beijing. In the extrapolation of the RPPs from 2000 to 2014, a significant descending trend is found for the standard deviation series of the RPPs over time that shows that the price differences across regions decreased during the extrapolating period. This finding provides evidence of a phenomenon of spatial price converging in China. Finally, a study on the deflation of provincial aggregates with the RPPs reveals that the spatial price adjustment will change the ranks or relative importance of different regions in the country. Especially, the measurement of income inequality proves that the Gini coefficients of provincial income deflated by the RPP^GEKS are all lower than the Gini coefficients of unadjusted incomes.     

Quality-adjusted price comparison of non-homogeneous products across Internet retailers

This study compares prices offered by multiple Internet retailers. This task is challenging because e-tailers cannot present their entire assortments to each consumer. Therefore, the quality of the product assortments presented by different e-tailers to each consumer is not directly comparable on an item-by-item basis, resulting in non-homogeneous offerings across retailers. We further consider the interaction between retailers (product information presentation format) and consumers (product information search strategies), which makes price comparisons among the retailers even more non-homogeneous. To grapple with this quality-adjusted price comparison problem for non-homogeneous products, we use a stochastic-frontier hedonic-price regression model to find the “lowest” theoretical price for a product given its characteristics. We then assess the price efficiency of the product as the ratio between this lowest price and the offered market price. This framework allows for the comparison of retailers in their ability to offer the “best deals” even when their actual assortments are not directly comparable in quality. Moreover, this framework provides Internet retailers with a relative measure of price efficiency. This helps them understand when and where they offer competitive prices to consumers. We illustrate our approach empirically in a comparison of price efficiency among three major Internet travel agents on a sample of posted itineraries and airfares. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the price efficiency of an Internet travel agent depends on the format of its website and on consumers' search strategies.     

粮食价格与居民消费价格水平联动效应研究

明晰粮食价格与居民消费价格水平之间的关系意义重大。基于1979—2020年中国粮食价格和居民消费价格水平年度数据,运用向量误差修正模型和Granger因果分析,对粮食价格与居民消费价格水平间的关系进行实证分析。结果表明:短期内,居民消费价格水平对粮食价格的影响远大于粮食价格对居民消费价格水平的影响,居民消费价格水平变动与粮食价格变动之间存在单向Granger因果关系;长期看,两者之间存在双向Granger因果关系。根据研究结论,提出了加强粮食价格和居民消费价格监测、稳定粮食价格水平、加大市场调控等对策建议。     

农产品品牌创建主体与经营模式的分析

本文首先分析了农产品品牌创建中涉及到的农业企业、农业行业组织、农业合作组织、农户和政府等相关主体及其在农产品品牌创建中承担的角色。并进一步从产业链的角度,结合农产品品牌创建各主体的功能来探讨农产品品牌化经营的可行模式,并在此基础上给出一定的政策建议。     

The framing effect of coupon value for new products: an empirical study in China

Two experiments tested the coupon framing effect with both existing products and new products, whereby the percentage-off format (vs. cents-off format) held an overall advantage in consumers' value perception, thus leading to higher purchase intention. We also found that different product price levels (high vs. low) and product types (physical goods vs. services) moderated this framing effect. Moreover, the context of new products' purchase significantly made this effect more salient than that in existing products. These results could contribute to the guidance of price and promotion strategy for business practitioners, especially in new product launch management.     

South African consumers' opinions and consumption of soy and soy products

Interest in soy foods has increased with consumer awareness of its health benefits, especially with soy‐related ingredients being utilized as one of the major sources of high‐protein fortification. The aim of the present study was to assess South African (SA) consumers' opinion of soy and soy products through different statements on consumption, taste, protein value and healthiness. The respondents (n = 3001) for this randomized cross‐sectional study were randomly selected from metropolitan and rural areas in South Africa. Trained fieldworkers administered questionnaires by conducting face‐to‐face interviews. Fourteen statements from four sections of the questionnaire (consisting of 17 food‐related topics in total), probing information on consumers' opinion on soy and soy products, were used. Data on 81% of the respondents (n = 2437), who had heard of soy before, were used for statistical analyses. The data were weighted to be representative of the total SA population based on gender, age and race. No practically significant differences among metropolitan and rural respondents' opinion, gender or age variables regarding any statement were found. A practically significant higher percentage (>60%) of respondents in the total population and within all race groups were positive about soy and agreed that soy is a good source of protein, has many health benefits, associated soy with meat substitutes, were aware of a number of meat substitutes and agreed that soy can replace meat in their diet. Medium to large practically significant differences were found between racial groups regarding certain statements. More Blacks and Indians (76% and 68% respectively) than Whites (25%) use soy. Almost two‐thirds of Indians (65%) and Blacks (64%) eat or drink soy products, compared with only 22% for Whites, indicating that the potential target market for soy products should be chosen accordingly. Higher percentages of Blacks than Whites also indicated that they liked the taste of soy, would use more soy if it was readily available and if a bigger product range existed and would replace cow's milk with soy milk, confirming that Blacks are more positive about soy and would use even more soy if a bigger range of soy products were available. The findings from the current study indicated that more than 70% of SA consumers believe that soy has many health benefits and more than 60% already use soy. Insight gained from this first study of its kind in SA provided valuable information to developers and marketers, and signified that consumer segmentation should be taken into consideration to focus on developing more acceptable soy products that appeal to these consumer segments that are more positive towards the taste of soy and might consume soy regularly. Within the discipline of Consumer Science, efforts to inform consumers about the advantages of soy in terms of its health benefits, and to support it in terms of a greater availability of more acceptable soy products at reasonable prices, would support the ideal of informed, responsible buying decisions across all socio‐economic groups.     

Modelling the asymmetric responses of price level to oil price changes in Qatar

This paper inspects the asymmetric effect of oil price on prices level in Qatar. To achieve that, we proceed by employing a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach on data during the period 1990Q1–2014Q4. The estimation results show evidences of an incomplete and asymmetric influence of oil price on price level in the long term. Moreover, we find that price responses to negative changes in oil price is greater than its response to positive changes. Given Qatar’s economic features, a decrease in oil price could cause lower imports and production prices and consequently a substantial influence on domestic prices level. However, the lower effect of positive oil price changes on consumer prices can be explained by the subsidies system, the consumption patterns, and the exchange rate regime.     

Socio‐demographic basic factors of German customers as predictors for sustainable consumerism regarding foodstuffs and meat products

An important step in promoting sustainable purchase behaviour is to explore the understanding of responsible consumerism from the consumers’ point of view. For this purpose, a study among 1040 German consumers was carried out using a two‐pronged approach. First, open‐ended questions were used to explore the characteristics of sustainable food consumption in general as well as the willingness and meaningfulness of a low‐meat diet from the consumers’ point of view. After that the interactive structure behind the term was studied using a quantitative empirical method. As standard of evaluation the four underlying socio‐demographic factors gender, age, wealth and education are used. Apart from the consumers’ financial situation, the applied statistics show significant correlations of the propensity for sustainable consumerism to each of the above factors. Women, middle‐aged and well‐educated consumers show a greater tendency to purchase environmentally and socially sustainable products. Accordingly, the suitability of socio‐demographic factors is confirmed in this study. The open‐ended questions fathom what attributes consumers connect with sustainable food consumption, in particularly with regard to the consumption of meat. It is clear that attributes that affect consumers directly and attributes which can be directly influenced by their actions are better perceived by the consumer. Altruistic factors or abstract aspects of food consumption (e.g. climate protection) are generally of less significance. Conversely, factors which concern the value added chain, like for example, origin and processing, have priority. To conclude, the findings enable the identification of the variables determining the sustainability construct. This allows policy makers to develop customized incentive systems. Similarly, private sector stakeholders are enabled to adapt marketing activities and their product mix to consumer demands.