Implied cost of capital investment strategies: evidence from international stock markets

Investors can generate excess returns by implementing trading strategies based on publicly available equity analyst forecasts. This paper captures the information provided by analysts by the implied cost of capital (ICC), the internal rate of return that equates a firm’s share price to the present value of analysts’ earnings forecasts. We find that U.S. stocks with a high ICC outperform low ICC stocks on average by 6.0 % per year. This spread is significant when controlling the investment returns for their risk exposure as proxied by standard pricing models. Further analysis across the world’s largest equity markets validates these results.     

Postmodern Corporate Finance

One of the core tenets of modern finance theory is that corporations create value by producing operating rates of return on capital that are greater than the cost of capital. “Postmodern” corporate finance, while reaffirming the importance of earning an adequate return on capital, also attempts to restore at least part of the traditional corporate emphasis on top-line growth that prevailed before the intense focus on returns by modern shareholder value advocates. One important reason for the heightened emphasis on growth in addition to returns is that most rate-of-return measures used by companies and investors are based on conservative accounting practices that make old assets look more profitable than new ones, thereby discouraging investments in growth. This article introduces a new return measure called “Gross Business Return” that, when evaluated against a Required Return framework that reflects the level of current stock prices, has a stronger correlation with how companies are valued by the stock market. Moreover, in reviewing historical returns over time for both the market and specific industries, the author's research suggests that the market appears to demand considerably lower current returns than those implied by traditional weighted average cost of capital (WACC) approaches. And to the extent corporate executives rely on WACC, they could be passing up valuable growth opportunities. To help evaluate tradeoffs between growth and return, the author introduces a cash-based measure of corporate economic profit called Residual Cash Earnings. Unlike most traditional return and economic profit measures, Residual Cash Earnings, when expressed as a percentage of sales, provides a way for corporate managers to identify growth opportunities that, while producing current returns lower than WACC, are likely to add value over a multi-year time horizon. These new measures and analytical tools are suitable for strategic planning, budgeting, resource allocation, performance measurement, and rewards. Consistent application of these principles across these management processes provides a framework for constantly rebalancing the emphasis on growth and return to adapt to changes in the economy, industry, and competitive landscape.     

Evidence on the Extent and Potential Sources of Long Memory in U.S. Treasury Security Returns and Yields

Unlike equity returns, many fixed-income return measures appear to display long memory. We show that the extent of long memory differs strongly for gross and excess holding period returns on U.S. Treasury securities. Granger and others have argued that long memory may only reflect infrequent structural breaks. We explore the impact of structural instability on tests for long memory and find only weak indications that it lies behind the long memory in our return series. The evidence of long memory remains strong for yield and term premia series even after accounting for a series of potential underlying structural changes.     

Risk and Return: A Revisit Using Expected Returns

This paper uses direct estimates of expected returns to examine the link between standard measures of financial risk and investor return requirements. The results show that systematic risk commands a significant positive risk premium, much larger than found using historical returns as proxies for expectations. Furthermore, there are nonlinearities in the relationship between risk and return. Finally, we show that expected returns and risk premiums in the equity markets change over time and that these changes are related to changes in interest rates on U.S. government obligations.     

An Analysis of U.S. and Latin American Financial Accounting Ratios

Financial accounting ratios of non-U.S. companies are subject to misinterpretation by U.S. investors due to differences in accounting principles, institutional practices, and economic environments. The purpose of this study is to compare selected financial accounting ratios of companies from seven Latin American countries with those of a matched sample of U.S. companies, and explain any observed differences in the ratios based on the above three factors. In general, the results indicated that the liquidity, activity, and coverage ratios of the Latin American companies were lower than those of the U.S. companies. The profitability ratios varied, however, with the profit margin on sales generally higher for the Latin American companies, the return on assets mixed, and the return on equity ratios not significantly different between the Latin American and U.S. companies.     

The exchange rate exposure of U.S. and Japanese banking institutions

In this paper, we examine the foreign exchange exposure of a sample of U.S. and Japanese banking firms. Using daily data, we construct estimates of the exchange rate sensitivity of the equity returns of the U.S. bank holding companies and compare them to those of the Japanese banks. We find that the stock returns of a significant fraction of the U.S. companies move with the exchange rate, while few of the Japanese returns that we observe do so. We next examine more closely the sensitivity of the U.S. firms by linking the U.S. estimates cross-sectionally to accounting-based measures of currency risk. We suggest that the sensitivity estimates can provide a benchmark for assessing the adequacy of existing accounting measures of currency risk. Benchmarked in this way, the reported measures that we examine appear to provide a significant, though only partial, picture of the exchange rate exposure of U.S. banking institutions. The cross-sectional evidence is also consistent with the use of foreign exchange contracts for the purpose of hedging.     

How asymmetric is U.S. stock market volatility?

This paper explores differences in the impact of equally large positive and negative surprise return shocks in the aggregate U.S. stock market on: (1) the volatility predictions of asymmetric time-series models, (2) implied volatility, and (3) realized volatility. Following large negative surprise return shocks, both asymmetric time-series models (such as the EGARCH and GJR models) and implied volatility predict an increase in volatility and, consistent with this, ex post realized volatility normally rises as predicted. Following large positive return shocks, asymmetric time-series models predict an increase in volatility (albeit a much smaller increase than following a negative shock of the same magnitude), but both implied and realized volatilities generally fall sharply. While asymmetric time-series models predict a decline in volatility following near-zero returns, both implied and realized volatility are normally little changed from levels observed prior to the stable market. The reasons for the differences are explored.     

Countercyclical currency risk premia

We describe a novel currency investment strategy, the ‘dollar carry trade,’ which delivers large excess returns, uncorrelated with the returns on well-known carry trade strategies. Using a no-arbitrage model of exchange rates we show that these excess returns compensate U.S. investors for taking on aggregate risk by shorting the dollar in bad times, when the U.S. price of risk is high. The countercyclical variation in risk premia leads to strong return predictability: the average forward discount and U.S. industrial production growth rates forecast up to 25% of the dollar return variation at the one-year horizon. The estimated model implies that the variation in the exposure of U.S. investors to worldwide risk is the key driver of predictability.     

Why Do Markets Move Together? An Investigation of U.S.-Japan Stock Return Comovements

This article explores the fundamental factors that affect cross-country stock return correlations. Using transactions data from 1988 to 1992, we construct overnight and intraday returns for a portfolio of Japanese stocks using their NYSE-traded American Depository Receipts (ADRs) and a matched-sample portfolio of U. S. stocks. We find that U. S. macroeconomic announcements, shocks to the Yen/Dollar foreign exchange rate and Treasury bill returns, and industry effects have no measurable influence on U.S. and Japanese return correlations. However, large shocks to broad-based market indices (Nikkei Stock Average and Standard and Poor's 500 Stock Index) positively impact both the magnitude and persistence of the return correlations.     

The Information Content of Cash Flow Figures

This paper investigates the link between earnings and share prices for a sample of UK companies for the years 1961 to 1977. Three measures of earnings were used: the traditional historical cost accounting return and two which were closer to cash flow measures. The strength of the link between earnings and cumulative abnormal returns was investigated relative to the level of inflation. The results indicate that, while there is substantial information content in the traditional historical cost rate of return, there is very little information conveyed by the measure closest to pure cash flow. No support was therefore found for the use of cash flow based reports. Evidence was found showing substantial changes in the nature of the relationship between accounting and stock returns, but this could not be explained by the effects of inflation.     

Discussion of ‘Accounting Premium’ for IAS/IFRS and U.S. GAAP Vis-à-vis German GAAP”

Ernstberger and Vogler [Ernstberger, J. & Vogler, O. (2008-this issue). Analyzing the German Accounting Triad with an Enhanced Multifactor Model—‘Accounting Premium’ for IAS/IFRS and U.S. GAAP Vis-à-vis German GAAP. International Journal of Accounting.] employ the concurrent use of three distinct accounting-standard regimes (German GAAP; U.S. GAAP; and IAS/IFRS GAAP) in Germany as a foundation for evaluating the relation between accounting standard regime and equity-return attributes. They find that firms using U.S. or IAS/IFRS GAAP have higher betas but yield lower returns (cost of capital) relative to firms employing German GAAP. They also find that portfolios designed to isolate the return impacts of U.S. and IAS/IFRS GAAP relative to German GAAP are priced in a risk-factor-like fashion. In this discussion I suggest that a good bit of this empirical evidence is problematic. I also discuss the implausibility of information quality being priced in a Fama and French [Fama, E.F. & French, K.R. (1992). The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns. The Journal of Finance 47 (2): 427–465.] factor-like fashion. Finally, I introduce the importance of conditioning analyses of the relation between firm-level information quality and equity-market return (cost of capital) on the degree to which the shareholder base of a firm holds diversified portfolios.     

Putty-clay technology and stock market volatility

Firms' first-order conditions imply that stock returns equal investment returns from the production technology. Much applied work uses the adjustment cost technology, which implies that the realized return is high when the investment-capital ratio is high. This paper derives, for an arbitrary stochastic discount factor, the investment return implied by the putty-clay technology. The combination of capital heterogeneity and irreversibility creates a novel channel for return volatility. The investment return is high when the ratio of investment to gross job creation is low. Empirically, the putty-clay feature helps account for U.S. stock market data.     

On the predictability of Chinese stock returns

We examine stock return predictability in China. We take 18 firm-specific variables that have been documented to predict cross-sectional stock returns in the U.S. and examine their relation with stock returns in China for the sample period from 1995 to 2007. We find relatively weak predictability for Chinese stocks. Only five firm-specific variables predict returns in the Chinese market. Tests on U.S. stock returns find that more predictors can explain cross-sectional stock return variation. We test two explanations for the cause of weak returns predictability in China. First, perhaps return predictors in China are less heterogeneously distributed than they are in the U.S. Second, stock prices are less informative in China than they are in the U.S. We find support for both explanations.     

On the validity of accounting rates of return in cross-sectional analysis: Theory, evidence, and implications

This paper reports the results of an empirical examination of the relationship between firm accounting rate of return (ARR) and firm internal rate of return (IRR). The evidence presented shows that some of the analytically derived properties of the ARR-IRR relationship hold in a sample of U.S. manufacturing firms. This evidence can be interpreted as documenting the existence of a potentially important degree of measurement error in the ARR for a sample of actual firms and increases the credibility of those who have questioned the use of accounting rates of return as the dependent variable in cross-sectional studies of firm profitability.     

The Equity Premium: Consistent with GDP Growth and Portfolio Insurance

We find that the long‐term equity premium is consistent with both GDP growth and portfolio insurance. We use a supply‐side growth model and demonstrate that the arithmetic average stock market return and the returns on corporate assets and debt depend on GDP per capita growth. The implied equity premium matches the U.S. historical average over 1926–2001. Separately, we find that the equity premium tracks the value of a put option on the S&P 500. Our theory predicts a smaller equity premium in the future, assuming that the recent regime shifts in dividend policies, interest rates, and tax rates are permanent.     

Do mutual funds time the market? Evidence from portfolio holdings

Previous research finds insignificant market-timing ability for mutual funds using tests based on fund returns. The return-based tests, however, are subject to the “artificial timing” bias. In this paper, we propose and implement new measures of market timing based on mutual fund holdings. Our holdings-based measures do not suffer from the artificial timing bias. We find that, on average, actively managed U.S. domestic equity funds have positive timing ability. Market timing funds use non-public information to predict market returns, tend to have high industry concentration, large fund size, a tilt toward small-cap stocks, and are active in industry rotation.     

Examination of U.S.-based Japanese subsidiaries: Evidence of the transfer of the Japanese strategic cost management

As a result of global competition, many Japanese companies are now operating in the United States. This article presents a survey of the management accounting methods employed by U.S.-based Japanese manufacturers and documents evidence about the current direction of accounting practices that are being transferred from Japan to the U.S. work environment. The results of the study show that most of the U.S.-based Japanese firms are similar to Japanese domestic firms in their use of management accounting methods of target costing and value engineering, variable costing, and strategic adaptation of traditional methods such as standard costing and budgeting. It is also evident that U.S.-based Japanese affiliates may be influenced by U.S. practices, as shown by significant usage of activity-based costing and internal rate of return for evaluating capital investment projects. This article is an important part of a continuing effort to study the development of management accounting among foreign-owned subsidiaries in the U.S., helping them to meet the challenges of global competition. Additionally, expanding this line of research on foreign subsidiaries that apply world class management accounting practices in other countries may assist U.S. multinational firms in their overseas subsidiaries' operations. Two limitations of this study and, thus, suggestions for future research are identified. First, the data on U.S.-based Japanese affiliates were collected for one point in time. Second, this study did not match each U.S.-based Japanese affiliate with its parent in Japan.     

International operations and voluntary disclosures by U.S.-based multinational corporations

This study uses analysts' ratings of firms' disclosures to examine how the differences between U.S. and foreign disclosure environments affects the voluntary disclosures of U.S.-based multinational corporations. We hypothesize that these different disclosure environments discourage U.S-based multinationals from releasing costly information to competitors. Examining how these differences impact U.S. MNCs' reporting may further our understanding of the relationship between voluntary disclosures and differences among countries' accounting standards. Furthermore, it may explain how convergence of mandated accounting standards might impact voluntary disclosures. Controlling for industry membership, firm size, profitability, earnings-return relations, and capital market activity, we find that U.S. firms with more extensive foreign operations tend to provide fewer voluntary disclosures. These results are most robust for informal and flexible disclosures, such as investor relations, where the findings indicate a negative relation between foreign operations and disclosure.     

The information content of implied skewness and kurtosis changes prior to earnings announcements for stock and option returns

We use option prices to examine whether changes in stock return skewness and kurtosis preceding earnings announcements provide information about subsequent stock and option returns. We demonstrate that changes in jump risk premiums can lead to changes in implied skewness and kurtosis and are also associated with the mean and variability of the stock price response to the earnings announcement. We find that changes in both moments have strong predictive power for future stock returns, even after controlling for implied volatility. Additionally, changes in both moments predict call returns, while put return predictability is primarily linked to changes in skewness.     

How do accounting variables explain stock price movements? Theory and evidence

This paper provides theory and evidence showing how accounting variables explain cross-sectional stock returns. Based on Zhang, G. [2000. Accounting information, capital investment decisions, and equity valuation: theory and empirical implications. Journal of Accounting Research 38, 271–295], who relates equity value to accounting measures of underlying operations, we derive returns as a function of earnings yield, equity capital investment, and changes in profitability, growth opportunities, and discount rates. Empirical results confirm the predicted roles of all identified factors. The model explains about 20% of the cross-sectional return variation, with cash-flow-related factors (as opposed to changes in discount rates) accounting for most of the explanatory power. The properties of the model are robust across various subsamples and periods.