What do a million observations have to say about loan defaults? Opening the black box of relationships

Using a unique dataset of more than 1 million loans made by 296 German banks, we evaluate the impact of many aspects of customer–bank relationships on loan default rates. Our research suggests a practical solution to reducing loan defaults for new customers: Have the customer open a simple transactions account – savings or checking account. Observe for some time and then decide whether to make a loan. Loans made under this model have lower default, as banks can use historical data about their borrowers to establish a baseline against which new client-related information can be evaluated. Banks assemble this historical information through relationships of different forms. We define relationships in many different ways to capture non-credit relationships, transaction accounts, as well as the depth and intensity of relationships, and find each of these can provide information that helps reduce default – even establishing a simple savings or checking account and observing the activity prior to loan granting can help reduce loan defaults. Our results show that banks with relationship-specific information act differently compared with banks that do not have this information both in screening and subsequent monitoring borrowers which helps reduce loan defaults.     

邮储银行个人理财业务发展对策研究

邮储银行自推出个人理财业务以来,理财产品规模得到了快速增长,但个人理财业务体系还有较大提升空间。文章针对邮储银行个人理财业务发展现状做深入剖析,查找问题和探寻引发原因所在,并分别从宏观层面和微观层面提出了促进邮储银行个人理财业务健康发展的具体对策。     

Impact of internet finance on the performance of commercial banks in China

The rapid development of Internet finance has certainly affected the operation of commercial banks. This paper investigates the impact of Internet finance on commercial banks. First, a theoretical influence mechanism of Internet finance on commercial banks is explored, and the Internet finance index and integrated performance index of commercial banks are constructed using factor analysis. Then, a static panel and a dynamic panel model are established to empirically examine the impact of Internet finance on the profitability, security, liquidity and growth as well as the comprehensive business performance of commercial banks. Finally, the heterogenous impacts of Internet finance on city commercial banks, joint-stock banks and state-owned commercial banks are discussed. The results show that the development of Internet finance has a positive impact on the profitability, security and growth of commercial banks, and has a negative impact on the liquidity of commercial banks. In addition, Internet finance has promoted the improvement of the comprehensive business performance of commercial banks. Moreover, the impact of Internet finance on different types of commercial banks is heterogeneous with the impact on state-owned commercial banks being the weakest and the impact on city commercial banks is the most significant.     

The Impact of Internet-Banking on Brick and Mortar Branches: The Case of Turkey

The increased adoption and infiltration of the Internet has recently redefined the playground for retail banks. Retail banks are now offering their services primarily through their Internet banking branches. The repercussions of this change to “brick and mortar” banks have been studied in the context of developed market economies. In this paper, we contribute to the literature by studying the impact of Internet banking adoption on banks’ deposit collection, lending activities, and performance in an emerging market setting. By using a panel of 18 retail banks that operate in Turkey from 1990–2008, we demonstrate that Internet banking adoption has a positive impact on the level of profits, deposits and loans per branch. As operational activities are now provided via Internet branches, Internet banking facilitates banking activities in branches that require more human input. We also find that Internet banking adoption has a negative impact on bank profitability after 2 years of adoption as Internet banking increases competition and results in lower interest income. Accordingly, Internet banking complements brick and mortar branches.     

储蓄存款理财化与存款利率市场化问题研究——基于湖南省、市数据的实证分析

在居民储蓄存款的交易和预防需求得到一定程度的满足,及银行金融产品不断丰富的条件下,公众投机动机不断增强,居民存款＂理财化＂特征凸显。银行存款和理财产品因定价的差异,使居民放弃银行存款转而增加对理财产品的投资偏好,居民存款＂理财化＂必然推进存款利率的市场化。本文首先梳理了近几年来我国银行理财产品及储蓄存款的变动趋势,在此基础上就居民存款理财化原因进行剖析,并通过实证结果进一步检验了理财产品对储蓄存款存在长期的影响,最后分析了居民存款理财化对推动利率市场化进程的意义,提出相关建议。     

Funding Modes of German Banks: Structural Changes and their Implications

We investigate the funding modes of German banks and the implications for lending and profitability during 1992–2002. We find that at many banks, deposits from customers decrease in relative terms while interbank liabilities increase as a source of funding. We cannot detect a negative impact of the relative decline in deposits on lending. The decreasing ability of banks to collect deposits and the substitution of deposits by interbank liabilities unfavorably affects the net interest result of banks that exhibit a deposit deficit, especially savings banks. Our findings indicate a structural lengthening of the intermediation chain, which has broader implications for the functioning and stability of the financial system.     

Mutual savings bank membership in the FHLBS: Motivations behind recent membership growth

Mutual savings bank membership in the Federal Home Loan Bank System increased sharply during 1974–1976. Motivations behind this upsurge in System membership are explored using a financial model of savings bank behavior. Hypotheses regarding the balance sheet structure of banks that joined the System during the period are developed and tested using multiple regression analysis. Empirical results for banks that joined the System in 1975 indicate that the joining banks were aggressive, risk-taking organizations that were attracted to membership in order to have a standby source of ready liquidity. Results for banks joining in other years are weaker, though still generally consistent with the 1975 results.     

Investment,internal funds and public banking in Germany

Previous studies supposed that low investment-cash flow sensitivities of German firms may be caused by a dominance of public banking. The paper addresses this assumption and applies a unique accounting dataset of German firms. Results from a dynamic version of the sales accelerator model show that the dependence of investment spending on internal funds does not significantly differ among firms attached to savings banks, cooperative banks or commercial banks. Thus, the importance of the public banking sector in Germany may not explain the rather low dependence of German firms on internal funds, and public ownership of banks does not seem to be important for reducing financing constraints.     

Do tourism receipts affect bank profitability? Analytical evidence from 85 tourism economies

Using data from 17,077 banks in 85 tourism economies during 1995–2016, this study analyzes the impact of international tourism receipts on banks’ profitability and hence financial stability. This study uses two-step system dynamic generalized method of moments estimator techniques to find that the tourism receipts are received through both direct and indirect channels and adversely affect bank profitability. Developing and low-income countries experience the greatest negative impact on profitability. Banks in European countries suffer the highest negative impact, whereas those in the United States are affected the least. Commercial and savings banks experience the highest negative impact of tourism. The findings of the study emphasize prudence in fiscal spending in countries where tourism constitutes a significant part of government revenue. The deleterious impact of COVID-19 on the flow of tourism revenue is likely to affect bank profitability and financial stability of the countries dependent on tourism. Therefore, it is of great significance to policy planners worldwide. The study also opens new vistas for research.     

对德国储蓄银行的考察与启示

本文通过对德国两家储蓄银行的考察,总结了其有益的经营理念。一是德国储蓄银行非常重视企业CI的建设工作;二是重视机构合作和资源共享;三是重视信息系统的研发工作;四是重视企业文化的积累和提炼;五是重视风险的管理和防范工作;六是重视对公益事业的支持;七是德国储蓄银行与地方经济共成长。     

Do banks’ overnight borrowing rates lead their CDS price? Evidence from the Eurosystem

We construct a measure of a bank's relative creditworthiness from the Eurosystem's proprietary inter-bank loan data: average overnight borrowing rate relative to an overnight rate index (AOR). We then investigate the dynamic relationship between AOR and the credit default swap price relative to the corresponding market index of 60 banks during 2008–2013. Price discovery mainly takes place in the CDS market, but AOR also contributes to it. The lagged daily changes of AOR help predict CDS. This indicates that AOR includes private information, which the CDS market does not immediately incorporate. We further show that the private information advantage is concentrated on days of market stress and on banks, which mainly borrow from relationship lender banks. Such borrower banks are typically smaller, have weaker ratings, and are likely to reside in crisis countries. Competent authorities can use AOR as a complementary indicator of banks’ concurrent health.     

基于第三方物流的汽车产品回收网络设计

针对汽车产品的回收,建立了一个由第三方物流参与的逆向物流网络,包含消费区域、存储中心、拆卸／再制造工厂和再分销市场四层。以总成本最小和对环境的影响最小为目标,建立了混合整数规划模型,以确定回收网络中各种设施的位置和数量,并通过算例,利用LING011．0求解,验证了模型的有效性和可行性。     

互联网金融对商业银行盈利影响测度研究——基于测度指标体系的构建与分析

互联网金融从萌芽到快速发展,带动了整个金融体系资源配置的变化,对传统商业银行盈利模式带来了巨大挑战。若采用德尔菲法问卷调查与模糊层次分析法为基础,并将专家对指标权重的两两测度结果进行模糊处理可获得指标的综合权重,从而构建测度指标体系。以此研究互联网金融对商业银行盈利影响就会发现,互联网金融对商业银行负债影响较大,因而对商业银行盈利产生较大影响;对资产类和中间业务的影响较小,因而对商业银行盈利所产生的影响也较小,因此,不可忽视互联网金融在这两个方面对商业银行盈利能力的影响。研究还发现,专家参与构建的测度指标体系是合理的,专家测度结果是准确的,可为商业银行在互联网金融影响下防范风险提供技术支持。     

SOFT INFORMATION PRODUCTION IN SME LENDING

We analyze the determinants of soft information production on bank clients assuming that this information is collected through close contact with borrowers. After classifying contacts based on the initiator and the location of the lender–borrower meetings, we find that banks have more direct contact with firms characterized by low risk and low use of their banking products, indicating that there may also be commercial reasons for such contact. Our findings suggest that the production of soft information may follow a quality selection process in which banks prefer to strengthen relationships with clients characterized by low risk and low use of their products. We provide additional evidence of the role of soft information in ongoing interactions between banks and borrowers. Banks that initiate contacts at the firm location result in future lower risk, lower spreads, and increased product sales.     

随机规划模型与商业银行资产的最优配置

有关商业银行资产负债管理模型的研究表明,基于多阶段带简单补偿的资产负债随机模型适合现阶段中国商业银行的资产负债管理问题。本文建立了三大国有上市商业银行的简化资产负债管理模型,运用遗传算法进行运算求解。模型结果能反映商业银行资产配置的基本变化趋势;贷款配置比例始终大于债券投资比例,表明银行仍然立足于传统信贷业务;三大商业银行的最优资产配置略有差异。考虑到商业银行资产收益率以及存款负债流的不确定性,实证结果表明该模型对实际管理决策具有现实指导意义。     

Do banks price their informational monopoly?

Theory suggests that banks’ private information lets them hold up borrowers for higher interest rates. Since new information about a firm is revealed at the time of its bond IPO, it follows that banks will be forced to adjust their loan interest rates downwards after firms undertake their bond IPO. We test this hypothesis and find that firms are able to borrow at lower interest rates after their bond IPO. Importantly, firms that get their first credit rating at the time of their bond IPO benefit from larger interest rate savings than those that already had a credit rating. These findings provide support for the hypothesis that banks price their informational monopoly. We also find that it is costly for firms to enter the public bond market.     

Formal Analysis of Segregation of Duties (SoD) in Accounting: A Computational Approach

This study examines a computational framework for segregation of duties (SoD) in the design as well as implementation of accounting systems. The framework consists of a model of workflows in accounting systems based on workflow graphs, a partial order model of roles performed by the actors in the accounting system, and a specification of SoD rules. We develop a set of algorithms for four SoD rules that can be used in the enforcement of SoD. For the SoD rule that precludes task type conflicts, our results show that while compliance verification can be carried out efficiently, finding an SoD compliant assignment of tasks is computationally intractable. For those situations, we present an integer linear programming (ILP) formulation for finding compliant assignments using public domain ILP solvers. For the remaining three SoD rules, we demonstrate efficient ways of testing compliance for a given assignment as well as finding compliant assignments.     

再制造逆向物流网络设计的多目标优化模型

逆向物流是物流领域的新视野,它不仅强调对废旧品的回收利用,更强调实现节约资源、保护环境和增强竞争力等目标.针对再制造逆向物流网络设计问题,在考虑废旧产品回收数量不确定的情况下,基于混合整数规划方法,建立了一个多目标的再制造逆向物流网络优化设计模型.模型以最小化网络设施总建设费用和最小化所建设施对居民产生的负效用为目标,...     

银行信贷资产证券化信用风险度量及传染研究——基于修正KMV模型和MST算法的实证

精准科学地度量和描述信用风险及传染机制有利于银行信贷资产证券化的高效健康发展和货币市场系统性风险的防范.运用修正KMV模型测度银行信贷资产证券化产品在不同时期的信用风险,并采用最小生成树(MST)算法考察银行间信用风险的传染机制.结果显示:政策性银行和大型商业银行发行的产品在各个时期信用风险均处于较低水平;股份制银行、城商行和农商行发行的产品违约率前期略高于前两类银行,但后期明显下降;后三类银行位于银行股票收益率网络的中心位置,具有传递信息和维系网络稳定的重要作用.     

Banking systemic vulnerabilities: A tail-risk dynamic CIMDO approach

This study proposes a novel framework which combines marginal probabilities of default estimated from a structural credit risk model with the consistent information multivariate density optimization (CIMDO) methodology and the generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) supplemented by a dynamic t-copula. The framework models banks’ default dependence explicitly and captures the time-varying non-linearities and feedback effects typical of financial markets. It measures banking systemic credit risk in the three forms categorized by the European Central Bank: (1) credit risk common to all banks; (2) credit risk in the banking system conditional on distress on a specific bank or combinations of banks; and (3) the buildup of banking system vulnerabilities over time which may unravel disorderly. In addition, the estimates of the common components of the banking sector short-term and conditional forward default measures contain early warning features, and the identification of their drivers is useful for macroprudential policy. Finally, the framework produces robust out-of-sample forecasts of the banking systemic credit risk measures. This paper advances the agenda of making macroprudential policy operational.