ESTIMATION OF TREATMENT EFFECTS WITHOUT AN EXCLUSION RESTRICTION: WITH AN APPLICATION TO THE ANALYSIS OF THE SCHOOL BREAKFAST PROGRAM

The increase in childhood obesity has garnered the attention of many in policymaking circles. Consequently, school nutrition programs such as the School Breakfast Program (SBP) have come under scrutiny. The identification of the causal effects of such programs, however, is difficult owing to non‐random selection into the program and the lack of exclusion restrictions. Here, we propose two new estimators aimed at addressing this situation. We compare our new estimators to existing approaches using simulated data. We show that while correlations might suggest that SBP causes childhood obesity, SBP is likely to reduce childhood obesity once selection is addressed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A MODEL OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH AN APPLICATION TO TAIWAN

This paper develops and applies a model to investigate questions pertinent to Taiwan's six year development plan. The model is designed to explore the implications of transportation versus industrial infrastructure investments on Taiwan's regional development objectives. Accessibility to population centers and related activities is seen as a critical factor in determining a location Is economic development potential. The model postulates an adjustment process that is geared to increasing economic welfare subject to adjustment costs. An empirical illustration using data from Taiwan suggest that Taipei's primacy is likely to increase over the coming decades. Across the board transportation improvements are shown to favor the island's central regions at the expense of Taipei and Kaohsiung.     

ASYMPTOTIC ABSOLUTE EFFICIENCY OF PROJECTION TESTS WITH AN APPLICATION TO N-RANKING TESTS

A class of χ²-type goodness-of-fit tests for the hypotheses of equal cell probabilities is introduced and the quality of the tests under arbitrary model restrictions is compared, where a suitable efficiency concept is used. As a special case, several nonparametric tests on treatment effects in the randomized block design can be considered. Some well known cases, such as the Anderson-, Friedman- and the Page-test, turn out to possess a certain minimax efficiency property under reasonable model assumptions. Finally a direct comparison between the Anderson- and Friedman-tests is given.     

DESIGNING EXPERIMENTS TO FIT AND VALIDATE REGRESSION MODELS

A graphical procedure is proposed for selecting designs suitable for estimation and validation of linear regression models. The procedure is exemplified with polynomial regression involving one and two explanatory variables.     

ESTIMATION OF CENSORED PANEL‐DATA MODELS WITH SLOPE HETEROGENEITY

This paper considers estimation of censored panel‐data models with individual‐specific slope heterogeneity. The slope heterogeneity may be random (random slopes model) or related to covariates (correlated random slopes model). Maximum likelihood and censored least‐absolute deviations estimators are proposed for both models. The estimators are simple to implement and, in the case of maximum likelihood, lead to straightforward estimation of partial effects. The rescaled bootstrap suggested by Andrews (Econometrica 2000; 68 : 399–405) is used to deal with the possibility of variance parameters being equal to zero. The methodology is applied to an empirical study of Dutch household portfolio choice, where the outcome variable (portfolio share in safe assets) has corner solutions at zero and one. As predicted by economic theory, there is strong evidence of correlated random slopes for the age profiles, indicating a heterogeneous age profile of portfolio adjustment that varies significantly with other household characteristics. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ENDOGENEITY IN COUNT DATA MODELS: AN APPLICATION TO DEMAND FOR HEALTH CARE

The generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation technique is discussed for count data models with endogenous regressors. Count data models can be specified with additive or multiplicative errors. It is shown that, in general, a set of instruments is not orthogonal to both error types. Simultaneous equations with a dependent count variable often do not have a reduced form which is a simple function of the instruments. However, a simultaneous model with a count and a binary variable can only be logically consistent when the system is triangular. The GMM estimator is used in the estimation of a model explaining the number of visits to doctors, with as a possible endogenous regressor a self-reported binary health index. Further, a model is estimated, in stages, that includes latent health instead of the binary health index. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF FACTOR MODELS ON DATASETS WITH ARBITRARY PATTERN OF MISSING DATA

In this paper we modify the expectation maximization algorithm in order to estimate the parameters of the dynamic factor model on a dataset with an arbitrary pattern of missing data. We also extend the model to the case with a serially correlated idiosyncratic component. The framework allows us to handle efficiently and in an automatic manner sets of indicators characterized by different publication delays, frequencies and sample lengths. This can be relevant, for example, for young economies for which many indicators have been compiled only recently. We evaluate the methodology in a Monte Carlo experiment and we apply it to nowcasting of the euro area gross domestic product. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

INTER-REGIONAL TRADE FLOW ESTIMATION THROUGH NON-SURVEY MODELS: AN EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT

Inter-regional trade estimation has been pointed out as a crucial problem when constructing a multiregional input–output system. Knowledge of inter-regional trade flows, at least of the pooled volume of exports and imports by commodity, is critical in accounting for important spillover and feedback effects deriving from inter-regional linkages. However, in most countries, there are no completely reliable survey-based statistics on inter-regional trade. Thus, this paper intends to evaluate the reasonability of using indirect inter-regional trade estimates, comparing different estimating methods and assessing the sensitivity of the model results. Based on our empirical comparisons we conclude that input–output models are not greatly affected by the insertion of different trade values. Thus, our results support the use of indirect estimates for inter-regional trade, whenever survey-based data are unavailable.     

ESTIMATION OF PROBABILITY MODELS FROM INCOME CLASS DATA

Abstract. Many household surveys report income by a limited number of classes only. In Engel curve analyses of such data, income is usually equated to the class midpoint. We argue that it is better to specify a continuous income distribution over the entire range, and to estimate its parameters jointly with the Engel curve coefficients; the position of the dependent variable within income classes is sufficiently informative about the income distribution parameters. The method is illustrated for a simple logit model of automobile ownership. The effect on estimation is perceptible, but not impressive; further analysis suggests that the standard method is acceptable provided some care is taken over the income class limits at the lower end of the range.     

MEASURING INTERSECTORAL KNOWLEDGE SPILLOVERS: AN APPLICATION OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS TO ITALY

R&D spillovers are unanimously considered as one of the main driving forces of technical change, innovation and economic growth. This paper aims at measuring interindustry R&D spillovers. We apply an ‘uncertainty-sensitivity analysis’ to the Italian input–output table of intermediate goods split into 31 economic sectors for the year 2000. The value added of using this methodology is the opportunity of distinguishing between spillover effects induced by productive linkages (the Leontief forward multipliers) and those activated by R&D investments, capturing the uncertain and non-linear nature of the relations between spillovers and factors affecting them.     

NEOCLASSICAL POLITICAL ECONOMY: AN APPLICATION TO TRADE POLICIES

Abstract. This paper starts with a review of the literature on 'neoclassical'political economy and then goes on to apply this perspective to the issue of trade liberalization. In this connection, the paper critically discusses various political economy models which have been advanced to explain patterns of trade policies in both developed and developing countries and assesses them in light of recent empirical evidence. The paper also makes a brief review of the empirical planning studies which estimate the gains from trade liberalization.     

MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF THE OCCUPATIONAL STATUS OF TWINS: A COMPARISON OF ECONOMIC AND BEHAVIOURAL GENETICS MODELS

ABSTRACT The purpose of this note is to compare the performance of the model of DeFries and Fulker [hereafter ‘the DFF model’] with the conventional fixed effects model in the analysis of data on twins in the study of economic well-being. Unlike the fixed-effects model that has traditionally been estimated in the economics literature, the DFF model provides explicit controls for genetic and shared environmental factors. The weight of the evidence from estimation of the two models considered is that the impact of education in Australia, holding constant genetic and shared environmental factors, is of the same order of magnitude as that estimated in studies that do not take account of these factors: at most ability and shared environmental factors contribute 1 to 2 percentage points to the gross return to education. The similarity of the results computed for the different models employed is reassuring, and suggests that reliable controls for the omitted genetic and shared environment variables are obtained through these indirect methods.     

SMOOTH DYNAMIC FACTOR ANALYSIS WITH APPLICATION TO THE US TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES

We consider the dynamic factor model and show how smoothness restrictions can be imposed on factor loadings by using cubic spline functions. We develop statistical procedures based on Wald, Lagrange multiplier and likelihood ratio tests for this purpose. The methodology is illustrated by analyzing a newly updated monthly time series panel of US term structure of interest rates. Dynamic factor models with and without smooth loadings are compared with dynamic models based on Nelson–Siegel and cubic spline yield curves. We conclude that smoothness restrictions on factor loadings are supported by the interest rate data and can lead to more accurate forecasts. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

用开放的心态 迎接行业新常态——第四届理事会第二次全体会议部分参会代表访谈

<正>2015年4月9日,中国物业管理协会第四届理事会第二次全体会议在北京胜利召开,来自全国29个省、市和香港、澳门特别行政区的协会理事、主管部门领导和地方物业管理协会负责人等750余人参加了此次会议。此次会议围绕新常态,新视野的主题开展了深入的研讨和交流,与会代表纷纷表示,会议安排独具匠心、亮点频出,处处让人耳目一新。近日,本刊记者采访了参会代表,因刊期原因,本期只刊登了部分代表的参