USING MODEL SELECTION ALGORITHMS TO OBTAIN RELIABLE COEFFICIENT ESTIMATES

This review surveys a number of common model selection algorithms (MSAs), discusses how they relate to each other and identifies factors that explain their relative performances. At the heart of MSA performance is the trade‐off between type I and type II errors. Some relevant variables will be mistakenly excluded, and some irrelevant variables will be retained by chance. A successful MSA will find the optimal trade‐off between the two types of errors for a given data environment. Whether a given MSA will be successful in a given environment depends on the relative costs of these two types of errors. We use Monte Carlo experimentation to illustrate these issues. We confirm that no MSA does best in all circumstances. Even the worst MSA in terms of overall performance – the strategy of including all candidate variables – sometimes performs best (viz., when all candidate variables are relevant). We also show how (1) the ratio of relevant to total candidate variables and (2) data‐generating process noise affect relative MSA performance. Finally, we discuss a number of issues complicating the task of MSAs in producing reliable coefficient estimates.     

PRIVATE POLICING AND PRIVATE ROADS: A COASIAN APPROACH TO DRUNK-DRIVING POLICY

Alcohol-related traffic accidents are externalities, not because of drinking, but because of relatively free access to public roads. Access limits are Coasian (property-rights) policies, but more effective limits will arise if road owners are liable for failing to provide safe roads. This can be achieved by privatising roads, thereby creating strong incentives to employ innovative private traffic policing.     

RBCs AND DSGEs: THE COMPUTATIONAL APPROACH TO BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY AND EVIDENCE

Abstract.  Real business cycle (RBC) and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) methods have become essential components of the macroeconomist's toolkit. This literature review stresses recently developed techniques for computation and inference, providing a supplement to the Romer textbook, which stresses theoretical issues. Many computational aspects are illustrated with reference to the simple divisible labor RBC model. Code and US data to replicate the computations are provided on the internet, together with a number of appendices providing background details.     

COMPSTAT, COMMUNITY POLICING AND THE SCIENCE OF SUCCESS: A MARKET-BASED APPROACH TO POLICE MANAGEMENT

Police departments in the USA have begun to embrace recommendations from two police management philosophies. However, it is often unclear whether these recommendations conflict with or complement each other. This article suggests that viewing these philosophies from a market-based perspective will enable police forces in the UK to better apply their recommendations.     

DELIBERATIVE MONETARY VALUATION: IN SEARCH OF A DEMOCRATIC AND VALUE PLURAL APPROACH TO ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY

The use of deliberative methods to assess environmental values in monetary terms has been motivated by the potential for small group discussion to help with preference formation and the inclusion of non‐economic values. In this review, two broad approaches are identified: preference economisation and preference moralisation. The former is analytical, concentrates upon issues of poor respondent cognition and produces a narrow conception of value linked to utilitarianism. The latter emphasises political legitimacy, appeals to community values and tends to privilege arguments made in the public interest. Both approaches are shown to embrace forms of value convergence, which undermine the prospects for value pluralism. As a result exclusion and predefinition of values dominates current practice. In order to maintain democratic credentials, the importance attributed to monetary value needs to be left as an open question to be addressed as part of a process determining an “agreement to pay”. To this end we identify a discourse‐based approach as a third way consistent with the democratic and value plural potential of deliberative monetary valuation.     

THE SOCIOLOGICAL APPROACH TO FINANCIAL MARKETS

Abstract.  As a part of the renaissance and growth of economic sociology during the past two decades, and in response to processes such as economic globalization, financial markets have been increasingly scrutinized by sociologists. Their investigation is seen as relevant with respect to understanding the structure and dynamics of advanced societies, the dynamics of social development, as well as fundamental aspects of human behaviour. This paper charts recent developments in the sociology of financial markets; its starting point is the treatment of the concept of information within three sociological orientations: the social-structural approach, sociological neo-institutionalism and the newer social studies of finance. By highlighting their different assumptions about information and market behaviour, I discuss how these approaches conceptualize financial markets, the methodological implications and the ways in which they contribute to the study of financial exchanges.     

EXTENSIONS TO THE MULTIPLIER DECOMPOSITION APPROACH IN A SAM FRAMEWORK: AN APPLICATION TO VIETNAM

The aim of this paper is to provide an extension of a technique recently introduced by Pyatt and Round (2006) to decompose each element of the ‘global multiplier matrix’ in ‘microscopic detail’ in order to capture the linkages between each household groups’ income and the exogenously injected income of other accounts. The methodology we propose allows dividing the impact of exogenous injections into four different effects: direct-direct effect (D-D); direct-indirect effect (D-I); indirect-direct effect (I-D) and indirect-indirect effect (I-I). Results using the 2000 Vietnamese SAM show that the highest direct effects on the income of household groups are related to exogenous injections into the agricultural sector, while the highest indirect effects result from investing in other agriculture-related sectors such as, for example, food processing. Policy interventions focusing on the agricultural sector and on rural households will thus have the greatest effect on reducing the level of income inequality.     

SOCIAL SECURITY AND RETIREMENT DECISION: A POSITIVE AND NORMATIVE APPROACH*

Abstract Social insurance for the elderly is judged responsible for the widely observed trend towards early retirement. In a world of laissez‐faire or in a first‐best setting, there would be no such trend. However, when first‐best instruments are not available, because health and productivity are not observable, the optimal social insurance policy may imply a distortion on the retirement decision. The main point we make is that while there is no doubt that retirement systems induce an excessive bias towards early retirement in many countries, a complete elimination of this bias (i.e. a switch to an actuarially fair system) is not the right answer for two reasons. First, some distortions are second‐best optimal. This is the normative argument. Second, and on the positive side, the elimination of the bias might be problematic from a political perspective. Depending on the political process, either it may not be feasible or alternatively it may tend to undermine the political support for the pension system itself.     

A GUIDED TOUR OF THE MARKET MICROSTRUCTURE APPROACH TO EXCHANGE RATE DETERMINATION

Abstract.  We propose a critical review of recent developments in exchange rate economics which have offered a novel approach to exchange rate determination. This new strand of research, the market microstructure approach to exchange rates, is motivated by some very stark empirical evidence, relating exchange rate dynamics to the imbalance in the sequence of purchases and sales of foreign currencies in the markets for foreign exchange. Through our review we outline the results this new strand of research has achieved alongside its open questions and future challenges.     

EDUCATION AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP SELECTION AND PERFORMANCE: A REVIEW OF THE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE

Abstract This paper provides a review of empirical studies into the impact of formal schooling on entrepreneurship selection and performance in industrial countries. We describe the main effects found in the literature, we explain the variance in results across almost a hundred studies, and we put the empirical results in the context of related economic theory and the much further developed literature in labor economics (studying the rate of return to education among wage employees). Five main conclusions result from this meta‐analysis. First, the impact of education on selection into entrepreneurship is insignificant. Second, the effect of education on performance is positive and significant. Third, the return to a marginal year of schooling is 6.1% for an entrepreneur. Fourth, the effect of education on earnings is smaller for entrepreneurs than for employees in Europe, but larger in the USA. Fifth, the returns to schooling in entrepreneurship are higher in the USA than in Europe, higher for females than for males, and lower for non‐whites or immigrants. In conclusion, we offer a number of suggestions to move the research frontier in this area of inquiry. The entrepreneurship literature on education can benefit from the technical sophistication used to estimate the returns to schooling for employees.