Climate Change and the Stability of Water Allocation Agreements

We analyse agreements on river water allocation between riparian countries. Besides being efficient, water allocation agreements need to be stable in order to be effective in increasing the efficiency of water use. In this paper we assess the stability of water allocation agreements using a game theoretic model. We consider the effects of climate change and the choice of a sharing rule on stability. Our results show that a decrease in mean river flow decreases the stability of an agreement, while an increased variance can have a positive or a negative effect on stability. An agreement where the downstream country is allocated a fixed amount of water has the lowest stability compared to other sharing rules. These results hold for both constant and flexible non-water transfers.     

Redistribution and Small Coalitions of Friends

When side marketing trade is perfect, linear taxation of retradeable commodities is the only scheme that survives attempts to arbitrage. In this paper, I discuss tax schemes when side trading is imperfect in the sense that commodities can only be re-exchanged within coalitions no larger than two people. In the framework of a two-class economy, I identify coalitions which might have an incentive to form and provide a characterisation for the Pareto-efficient tax scheme. The tax formula has a very simple form and strongly resembles the formula for the no-side-trade case. In a numerical exercise, the constraints imposed on policy by an imperfect side trading process are found to be almost as tough as those imposed by perfect side trading.     

Coalitions, agreements and efficiency

If agents negotiate openly and form coalitions, can they reach efficient agreements? We address this issue within a class of coalition formation games with externalities where agents’ preferences depend solely on the coalition structure they are associated with. We derive Ray and Vohra's [Equilibrium binding agreements, J. Econ. Theory 73 (1997) 30-78] notion of equilibrium binding agreements using von Neumann and Morgenstern [Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 1944] abstract stable set and then extend it to allow for arbitrary coalitional deviations (as opposed to nested deviations assumed originally). We show that, while the extended notion facilitates the attainment of efficient agreements, inefficient agreements can nevertheless arise, even if utility transfers are possible.     

Rivalry, Exclusion, and Coalitions

This paper analyzes a model where groups can attain exclusive ownership of a resource by means of a contest. We show that more concave production technologies and more egalitarianism within groups induce higher levels of social conflict. We then study endogenous coalition formation. Under cooperative exploitation of the resource, the grand coalition is the efficient partition but there exists a strong tendency toward bipartisan conflicts. Under noncooperative exploitation, conflict can ex ante Pareto dominate peaceful access and it becomes more difficult to support the grand coalition as a stable structure.     

基于稳定发展视角的银行监管效果分析

结合全球101个国家银行发展和67个国家银行稳定的数据,以实现银行业的稳定可持续发展为银行监管目标,根据收入水平和IMF原则将样本国家分为五类,分析了代表性监管措施对不同收入水平国家和地区的监管效果。实证研究表明,中高收入国家的银行业务活动监管、外部治理和资本监管同时可以实现银行业稳定可持续发展;中低收入国家过高的业务活动限制和资本监管不利于银行业发展,金融集团控制和监管独立性反而会增加不稳定性;低收入国家过高的业务活动限制和资本监管水平不利于银行业稳定发展,外部治理和官方监管权力更有利于实现银行监管目标。     

An Enforcement-Coalition Model: Fishermen and Authorities Forming Coalitions

The paper sets up a four-stage enforcement model of fish quotas. The purpose of the paper is to show how the level of enforcement set by the authorities affects the way fishermen form coalitions. We show that a high level of control effort yields less co-operation among fishermen, while in the case of low control effort, coalitions are somewhat self-enforcing. The paper further discusses how the optimal enforcement level changes when the coalition formation among authorities changes: centralised, partly centralised and decentralised authorities. We show that decentralised authorities set a lower level of control effort compared to the centralised authorities. The theoretical results are illustrated by simulations of the Baltic Sea cod fishery.The authors acknowledge valuable comments and suggestions from Frank Jensen and Niels Vestergaard.     

European Climate Policy Effectiveness: Convergence Analysis for per Capita CO2 Emissions

International Advances in Economic Research -     

The Challenges of Climate Policy

Climate policy planners and the public should be aware of both economic challenges and arguments that may influence the intensity of the climate policies with which they have to cope. This article examines six economic challenges: cap‐and‐trade versus taxes, non‐price regulations, energy efficiency policies, mitigation versus adaptation, trade effects, and transmission planning. Three additional challenges affect the end itself: ‘fat tails’, discount rates, and whether environmental protection should be evaluated by willingness to pay. If future generations cannot compensate the present for climate policy costs, climate policy is inherently redistributive and cannot be evaluated through cost–benefit analysis alone.     

气候变化的经济分析

气候变化在经济学上提出了独一无二的挑战,这是迄今为止范围最大、规模最大的市场失灵现象。文章探讨了经济发展与气候变化之间的互动关系：从市场失灵的角度切入,通过阐述气候变化对经济发展的影响,探讨政府和企业对气候变化所产生的影响做出的反应,从而提出中国应对这种“市场失灵”现象应采取的措施。     

公众集聚度与政府审计质量——基于公共选择理论的分析

公众参与能否在政府审计工作中发挥积极作用,是政府审计研究领域值得关注的问题。本文运用公共选择理论,分析我国社会公众参与政府审计的经济动因及实现路径,并以2002~2006年我国省级政府审计机关为样本,从经济集聚度、地域集聚度、教育集聚度和信息集聚度等4个维度衡量公众集聚度,研究发现:公众集聚度与政府审计质量显著正相关,公众在地域集聚度、教育集聚度和信息集聚度方面的增强,有利于公众降低监督成本、增加监督收益,从而激发公众的审计需求并推动政府审计质量提升。因此,政府应改进政府审计结果公告实践,从制度上引导公众参与政府审计并完善公众诉求的传导机制,以便充分发挥公众的监督合力在提升政府审计质量中的作用。     

APEC气候变化合作与中国的策略选择

文章对APEC气候变化合作的背景、发展、意义和前景进行了政治经济分析,并着重阐释了美国和日本的气候政策及其对APEC气候变化合作的影响。在此基础上,文章指出了中国参与APEC气候变化合作的必要性,并提出了相应的对策建议。     

组织和谐气氛的概念、结构与测量

伴随着经济的飞速发展和中国企业的不断成长,迫切需要能体现中国人文精神的本土化管理理论和方法。因此,以中国文化的＂和谐＂哲学思想为主导来开展中国组织管理问题研究,尝试构建中国式管理理论和方法,具有重大的理论意义。借鉴组织气氛概念,将中国文化＂和谐＂概念与组织气氛概念相融合,基于中国组织管理的现实需要,本文提出了＂组织和谐气氛＂的概念;首先采用访谈法对50名管理者与员工进行了调查,归纳性分析表明组织和谐气氛包括八个维度;其次,选取378个样本对组织和谐气氛的结构维度进行了实证检验,结果表明组织和谐气氛概念是一个八因素的结构,同时本文设计的量表具有较好的信度和效度。这一理论结构的发现以及相应量表的研制具有重要的理论价值和应用价值。     

瑞典政府应对气候变化的政策措施

本文介绍了瑞典政府当前应对气候变化的一些政策措施。首先是十大举措,包括加大气候能源领域的资金投入,在能源、建筑物设计、发展可持续城市、环境技术、运输、气候领域方面展开研发,通过税收调节和政府公共部门带头促使减排等;其次重视并严格执行欧盟节能减排目标;最后积极开展国际间的气候问题合作与援助。     

Climate Change and Adaptation: The Case of Nigerian Agriculture

The present research offers an economic assessment of climate change impacts on the four major crop families characterizing Nigerian agriculture. The evaluation is performed by shocking land productivity in a computable general equilibrium model tailored to replicate Nigerian economic development up to 2050. The detail of land uses in the model has been increased by differentiating land types per agro-ecological zones. Uncertainty about future climate is captured, using, as inputs, yield changes computed by a crop model under ten general circulation models runs. Climate change turns out to be negative for Nigeria in the medium term, with production losses and increase in crop prices, higher food dependency on foreign imports, and GDP losses in all the simulations after 2025. In a second part of the paper, a cost effectiveness analysis of adaptation in Nigerian agriculture is conducted. The adaptation practices considered are a mix of cheaper “soft measures” and more costly “hard” irrigation expansion. The main result is that the cost effectiveness of the whole package depends crucially on the possibility of implementing adaptation by exploiting low-cost opportunities which show a benefit-cost ratio larger than one in all the climate regimes.     

金融稳定与物价稳定、经济增长的动态关联性

本文基于2002年第1季度至2014年第4季度的数据,构建中国金融稳定综合指数,并采用带有随机波动的时变参数向量自回归模型,对金融稳定与物价稳定、经济增长之间的动态关联性进行实证考察.结果表明:(1)自2002年第1季度以来,中国金融稳定性不断提升.(2)总体而言,各经济变量的脉冲响应强度随着滞后期的延长而逐渐减弱.(3)短期内,经济增长和物价稳定有利于金融稳定;中长期内,经济持续过热不利于金融稳定,物价上涨对金融稳定的负向影响强度逐渐减弱,并可能由负转正.(4)金融稳定对经济增长和物价稳定的影响随着经济环境的变化而发生变化.(5)与金融稳定对经济增长和物价稳定的影响相比,经济增长和物价稳定对金融稳定的影响强度更大、持续时间更长.     

货币政策有效性与货币政策透明制度的兴起

本文着重探讨货币政策透明性与货币政策有效性之间的关系,目的在于说明货币政策透明制度能够兴起的一个关键因素在于货币政策的透明性有利于提高货币政策的有效性。在标准的“时间不一致性”理论里面,货币政策是否透明对货币政策的效应是没有影响的,因为在这类理论里面,经济主体能够使用所有可获得的信息形成与经济系统相一致的、无偏的估计。但问题的关键在于,这种假设的基本前提在实践中并不完全成立。当考虑到经济主体对经济运行结果和经济运行过程的不完全认知时,货币政策透明性对于促进经济主体的学习过程,稳定和引导公众的通胀预期,进而提高货币政策的有效性就起着至关重要的作用。     

A "Tragedy of the Clubs": Excess Entry in Exclusive Coalitions

We model club formation as a noncooperative game of coalition formation and surplus division. We show how social norms and individual rationality sustain a particular type of collective inefficiency, namely, excessive entry in the joint production and exploitation of an excludable good. We term this phenomenon the "tragedy of the clubs." The tragedy of the clubs is a pervasive equilibrium phenomenon.     

家长式领导效能的实证研究

就目前我国管理学界而言,管理理论的借鉴多于本土原创.因此,将中国企业一些优秀的管理方法抽象和总结,并与其他国家企业进行分享,家长式领导理论就是其一重要成果.家长式领导是我国台湾学者郑伯埙等人(2000)基于中华文化背景而提出的管理理论.企业管理行为因文化的不同会有不同的风格、内涵和效能.本研究在家长式三元领导管理的基础上,探讨家长式领导在我国企业组织中的有效性及其内在作用机理,以发现适合我国文化特点的管理方式.实证研究了家长式管理广泛存在于所有的组织结构中,而其中用德行管理具有更高的效能.