Does Productivity in the Formal Food Sector Drive Human Ebola Virus Infections in Sub‐Saharan Africa?

As the hunting, butchering, processing, and consumption of bushmeat is a potential source of human Ebola virus (EV) infections, the extent to which bushmeat is a substitute for food produced and sold in the formal sector suggests that the relative price of food could matter for the incidence of human EV infections. This paper considers if productivity in the food sector is a driver of human EV infections in sub‐Saharan Africa. We estimate count data specifications of country level human EV infections as a function of food sector productivity in sub‐Saharan Africa over the 1976–2013 time period. Our parameter estimates suggest that if productivity in the food sector was on average 1 per cent higher over the 1976–2013 time period, the incidence of human EV infection would have been 42.5 per cent lower. This is consistent with bushmeat being a substitute for food produced in the formal sector, as food productivity increases lower the price of formal food relative to bushmeat. Our findings suggest that as productivity in the formal food sector is a driver of human EV infections in sub‐Saharan Africa, policy interventions that increase food productivity would enable Millennium Development Goal outcomes related to hunger, disease mitigation, and sustainability of wildlife.     

THE IMPLICATIONS OF SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMIC GROWTH FOR THE REST OF AFRICA

This paper measures the extent to which South African economic growth is an engine of growth in sub‐Saharan Africa. Results based on panel data estimation for 47 African countries over four decades suggest that South African growth has a substantial positive impact on growth in the rest of Africa, even after controlling for other growth determinants. The estimates are robust to the effects of global and regional shocks, changes in model specification, and sample period.     

Supply‐leading versus Demand‐following Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Three SSA Countries

Abstract: This study investigates empirically the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth in three sub‐Saharan African countries — Kenya, South Africa and Tanzania. The study seeks to answer one critical question: Does financial development in sub‐Saharan African countries exhibit a supply‐leading or demand‐following response? Using three proxies of financial development against real GDP per capita (a proxy for economic growth), the study finds that the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth is sensitive to the choice of measurement for financial development. In addition, the strength and clarity of the causality evidence is found to vary from country to country and over time. On balance, a demand‐following response is found to be stronger in Kenya and South Africa, whilst in Tanzania a supply‐leading response is found to be dominant. The study therefore recommends that for Kenya and South Africa the real sector of the economy should be developed further in order to sustain the development of the financial sector. However, for Tanzania, there is need for further development of the financial sector in order to make the economy more monetized.     

THE DEMAND FOR FOOD IN SOUTH AFRICA1

Food consumption is an important issue in South Africa, given its relation to poverty and deprivation. With the pressing need to increase food security, understanding the determinants of the demand for food and having some estimates of the likely impact of price and income changes has become a vital task. There is, however, surprisingly little economic research on this topic and almost none in recent times. This paper provides a comprehensive empirical analysis of the demand for food in South Africa for the years 1970‐2002. It moves beyond the usual static modelling approach in using a general dynamic log‐linear demand equation and a dynamic version of the almost ideal demand system, to provide estimates of the short‐ and long‐run price and expenditure demand elasticities.     

RICE GREEN REVOLUTION IN ASIA AND ITS TRANSFERABILITY TO AFRICA: AN INTRODUCTION

Drawing on the experiences of Asian countries, we attempt to identify the transferability of Asian Green Revolution to sub‐Saharan Africa by examining whether there is a common set of factors affecting rice yields in the two regions. We have attempted to propose the strategy to realize a Green Revolution in sub‐Saharan Africa based on lessons learned from the comparative studies included in this special volume.     

Aid,development and politics in Southern Africa: A critical look at new conditionalities in official development assistance

Development aid totalling more than 25 billion rand a year is currently flowing from the North to the Southern African region. Several countries in the region are extremely de pendent on these financial transfers and foreign donors have become important players in domestic decision making. In recent years, Northern donors have increasingly demanded major political and administrative reforms in recipient countries as a condition for con tinued aid. This article examines these new political conditionalities, drawing on data from sub‐Saharan and Southern Africa to illustrate certain key issues.     

Impact of Public Investment on Private Investment in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Crowding In or Crowding Out?

This paper investigates the possible crowding‐in or crowding‐out effect of public investment on private investment in sub‐Saharan Africa. While this relationship has been theoretically and empirically studied in the literature, most studies used traditional panel fixed effects or Generalized Method of Moments estimators which can potentially lead to biased and inconsistent estimates. We employ heterogeneous parameter models, including the Mean Group, the Common Correlated Effects Mean Group Model, and the Augmented Mean Group estimators, to incorporate the possibility of slope heterogeneity and the presence of cross‐sectional dependence. Using a large sample of 44 sub‐Saharan African countries over the period 1960–2015, we find that on average public investment crowds in private investment in sub‐Saharan Africa. We also find that the impact differs between countries and is higher in countries with a strong private sector.     

Distance to Growing Markets and Sub‐Saharan African Exports*

Abstract: A typical person in sub‐Saharan Africa is a long way from world markets and is further from world markets now than in 1980. This partly reflects slower growth within Africa than for the world as a whole. Despite slower growth in Africa, African exports have become increasingly regionalized. By 2005, a country in Africa typically exported more than twice as much to a country in its own region as would be expected based on economic size and bilateral distance. This regionalization was not present in the early 1980s and has become stronger over time. We find evidence of positive neighborhood effects through exports, but sub‐Saharan countries benefit less from growth in their own region than this typical relationship indicates. Given the small share of exports destined to their neighbors, low‐income countries in sub‐Saharan Africa experience relatively modest export growth from growth in the region. These factors imply that African countries are unlikely to pull each other out of poverty and a regional focus may be less effective than a focus on countries outside of the region.     

Institutional Foundations for Shared Growth in Sub‐Saharan Africa*

Abstract: The paper examines the dynamically evolving triangular relationships between institutions, growth and inequality in the process of economic development, in order to deepen the understanding of institutional conditions for pro‐poor growth and shared growth. In this context, the paper discusses the institutional conditions found in sub‐Saharan Africa, which may have produced the growth pattern that is unequal and against the poor. The analysis shows that sub‐Saharan African countries require transforming institutions for embarking upon and sustaining a development path which would ensure shared growth in years to come. The paper first evaluates the growth‐inequality‐poverty nexus, as found in the recent literature, which increasingly challenges the trade‐off between growth and equity, as postulated in the traditional theories. Various definitions of pro‐poor growth are discussed and a sharper definition of the concept of ‘shared’ growth is provided. Definitions of institutions are then examined, as well as the triangular inter‐relationships between institutions, inequality and poverty. The paper finally analyses specific institutional conditions found in sub‐Saharan Africa that prevent economies from emerging out of low‐equilibrium poverty traps that are characterized by low economic growth, unequal distribution of income and wealth as well as unequal access to resources and power.     

Does China Transfer Productivity Enhancing Technology to Sub‐Saharan Africa? Evidence from Manufacturing Firms*

Abstract: This paper considers whether trade between China and sub‐Saharan Africa results in productivity‐enhancing technology transfers to sub‐Saharan African manufacturing firms. As trade flows between countries potentially results in interactions that lead to technological improvements in the production of goods and services, we parameterize the level of total factor productivity for African manufacturing firms as a function of foreign direct investment flow, and for the country in which it operates, trade openness with China, and its interaction with foreign direct investment. With micro‐level data on manufacturing firms in five sub‐Saharan African countries, we estimate the parameters of firm‐level production functions between 1992 and 2004. Our parameter estimates reveal that across the firms and countries in our sample, there is no relationship between productivity‐enhancing foreign direct investment and trade with China. In addition, increasing trade openness with China has no effect on the growth rate of total factor productivity. To the extent that total factor productivity and its growth is a crucial determinant of economic growth and living standards in the long run, our results suggest that increasing trade openness with China is not a long‐run source of higher living standards for sub‐Saharan Africa.     

THE LEGACY AND CHALLENGE OF FISCAL POLICY IN SUB‐SAHARAN AFRICA1

This paper traces salient aspects of the evolution of fiscal policy in sub‐Saharan Africa since 1960 and highlights the need for further reforms to consolidate the gains of the recent past. The fiscal position of the sub‐Saharan African region as a whole has improved markedly during the past ten years, but most countries still face formidable fiscal challenges. To consolidate the progress made during the past decade and to tackle the remaining problems, sub‐Saharan African policymakers should remain firmly committed to sound fiscal policies.     

Financial Development,Growth Volatility and Information Asymmetry in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Does Law Matter?

We re‐examine the law–finance theory relying on 33 countries in sub‐Saharan Africa over the period 2004–2011. Our evidence suggests that legal origin significantly explains cross‐country differences in financial development and economic volatility. More importantly, relative to civil law, English common law countries and those in Southern Africa have higher financial sector development both in terms of financial activity and banking efficiency on the back of lower volatility. While private credit bureau positively (negatively) affects financial development (economic volatility) with economically large impact for English legal legacy countries, the latter effect is contingent on the form of legal origin suggesting that, the establishment of information sharing offices per se may be insufficient in taming growth vagaries.     

The Global Financial Crisis and Sub‐Saharan Africa: The Effects of Slowing Private Capital Inflows on Growth*

Abstract: This paper uses the bias‐corrected least‐squares dummy variable (LSDV) estimator to examine the relationship between economic growth and four different types of private capital inflows (cross‐border bank lending, foreign direct investment (FDI), bonds flows and portfolio equity flows) on a sample of 15 selected sub‐Saharan African countries over the period 1980–2008. Our results show that FDI and cross‐border bank lending exert a significant and positive impact on sub‐Saharan Africa's growth, whereas portfolio equity flows and bonds flows have no growth impact. Our estimates suggest that a drop by 10 per cent in FDI inflows may lead to a 3 per cent decrease of income per capita growth in sub‐Saharan Africa, and a 10 per cent decrease in cross‐border bank lending may reduce growth by up to 1.5 per cent. Therefore, the global financial crisis is likely to have an important effect on sub‐Saharan Africa's growth through the private capital inflows channel.     

Price adjustment after hyperinflation in Zimbabwe

This paper examines—post‐dollarization in Zimbabwe—the extent of price dispersion within Zimbabwe and between Zimbabwe and South Africa. We document the adjustment process, and the mechanisms of price adjustment after the introduction of the new currency system in Zimbabwe. We show that prices converged post‐dollarization. We argue that the fall in price dispersion is not a product or a Southern Africa region effect. Rather it is a Zimbabwe specific effect and given that price convergence happens quicker the closer the month is to the dollarization, we argue that the observed results are driven by the change in currency. Price dispersion happens faster between major cities and secondary cities, suggesting improvements in information and trade signals between major and secondary cities. These results suggest that the positive effects of a stable currency fall disproportionally on secondary cities, implying price stability not only has macroeconomic benefits, but also developmental benefits since secondary cities and rural areas are on average, poorer than main cities.     

HOW REVOLUTIONARY IS THE “NERICA REVOLUTION”? EVIDENCE FROM UGANDA

A new high‐yielding upland rice variety known as New Rice for Africa (NERICA) has been widely recognized as a promising technology for addressing the food shortage in sub‐Saharan Africa. However, there has been no on‐farm yield data to support this optimism. The present study attempts to assess the actual and potential yield of NERICA in Uganda where it has been introduced recently. We found that NERICA's yield is higher (2.5 tons) for farmers who had rice‐growing experience than those who had no previous experience (1.7 tons). These findings strongly indicate that strengthening training, extension, and other supporting systems is the key to the success of the “NERICA revolution” in this country.     

Community‐driven Development: A Viable Approach to Poverty Reduction in Rural Burkina Faso

Abstract: Various efforts by national governments, non‐governmental organizations (NGOs) and international donors have shown limited success in reducing poverty in sub‐Saharan Africa. As a result, poverty is still persistent in most households especially in rural areas. The persistence of poverty on the continent can be in part attributed to the top‐down approach to development adopted by various poverty alleviation programs. This paper focuses on poverty reduction programs in Burkina Faso and argues that a community‐driven approach to development and poverty reduction has the potential of lifting rural populations out of poverty trap.     

What Are the Drivers of Fiscal Performance Gaps between Anglophone and Francophone Africa? A Blinder–Oaxaca Decomposition

In this paper, we make use of the Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition to examine how the quality of budget institutions affects fiscal performance – primary balance and public debt – in sub‐Saharan Africa. To organise our approach, we categorise sub‐Saharan Africa countries according to the two main systems of budgetary institutions: the English‐based system and the French‐based system. The quality of budget institutions is measured through five criteria: centralisation, comprehensiveness, fiscal and procedural rules, sustainability and credibility, and transparency. Our findings show that, on average, Anglophone Africa countries have better budgetary institutions than their Francophone counterparts, and this difference is the main determinant of the fiscal performance gaps between the two groups. These performance gaps are mostly due to the characteristics effect, meaning that the relative poor fiscal performance of Francophone countries is not due to the French‐based system itself but rather to the environment in which it operates. The budget process and procedures in these countries are relatively less comprehensive, sustainable and transparent and that adversely affects their fiscal performance.     

The Determinants of Cereal Grain Imports: Sub‐Saharan Africa, 1970–1997

Abstract: During the 1970s cereal imports in sub‐Saharan Africa increased at an annual rate in excess of 20 percent. As a result, it was assumed Africa had two choices: reduce the rate of population growth or become increasingly dependent on food imports and aid. In this paper we investigate the relative importance of food shortfalls versus policy choices that resulted in a taste change away from roots and tubers and coarse grains to imported wheat and rice. Of the 41 countries studied, 17 are still net exporters of food commodities, cereal imports serve to supplement inadequate production of food, but these imports, generally, are not driven by severe nutritional needs within any one country. Rather, the observed cereal imports are primarily wheat and rice flowing into the countries with adequate levels of nutrition available.     

Accounting for Gender Equality in Secondary School Enrollment in Africa

In addition to analyzing the characteristics of gender equality in secondary education enrollment in Africa, this paper empirically studies the key drivers of gender equality in secondary education enrollment, using cross‐sectional time series data from 1970 to 2010. Our results show that the coefficient associated with the level of real GDP per capita is positive and statistically significant in both the overall Africa sample and in the sub‐Saharan and North African samples. But the quadratic term of real GDP per capita is negative in sign and significant in the overall Africa and sub‐Saharan African estimates. These provide evidence of a hump‐shaped relationship between real GDP per capita and gender equality in secondary education enrollment in Africa. Our results also suggest that higher share of female teachers in secondary schools, increased democracy (at a decreasing rate), higher female share of the labor force, Christian dominance in a country, higher domestic investment rate, and being an oil‐exporting country increase gender equality in secondary education enrollment in the continent. However, higher population growth tends to lower it. The policy implications and lessons of these results are discussed.     

SOUTH AFRICA AND THE NEW PARTNERSHIP FOR AFRICA'S DEVELOPMENT: ECONOMIC SPIN-OFFS AND LINKAGES

The New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD) is a concerted effort by Africa's political leaders to develop a comprehensive and integrated strategic policy framework to raise current levels of socio‐economic development and reduce high levels of poverty across the African continent. The NEPAD framework recognises the need for African countries to pool their resources together in order to enhance regional development and economic integration. To this end, NEPAD emphasises capacity building and also seeks to solicit and disburse funds towards infrastructural development programmes and poverty alleviation projects, among others. South Africa's involvement with the rest of Africa has increased significantly since 1994. Trade exports, foreign direct investment (both market and resource‐seeking in nature) and public‐private partnerships have mushroomed in many parts of the continent. Many South African firms are providing the financial impetus for the infrastructural development and rehabilitation of African economies. This paper discusses salient economic linkages between South Africa and the rest of Africa within the framework of NEPAD. South Africa is the economic hub of sub‐Saharan Africa (and indeed of the African continent), with significant agricultural, manufacturing and services capacity. South African firms have invested in the development of a number of sectors in the rest of Africa, taking advantage of the new investment incentives offered by the NEPAD framework. The target sectors range from mining, the hospitality industry, engineering and construction, finance to telecommunications. These investments and economic involvements are crucial to the development of African countries and the relevant sectors that are important for the realisation of some of the objectives of NEPAD.