广西物质资本存量与科技进步贡献率的估算

文章以Cobb-Douglas生产函数为基础设定模型,采用张军的方法构建固定资产投资隐含平减指数,估算广西物质资本存量,并结合人力资本存量回归估计资本产出弹性与劳动产出弹性系数,进一步运用索洛余值法测算广西2007年科技进步贡献率为0.31169534,并发现当前科技进步贡献率存在的不足,提出淡化科技进步贡献率对经济发展绩效方面的解释作用。     

中国公共资本对私人资本替代关系的实证研究

本文通过建立总量的动态最优化模型，证明了公共资本对私人资本替代作用的存在性，进而研究在我国经济发展和财政政策执行过程中公共资本和私人资本的替代程度，通过计量模型对上述替代程度进行了具体度量。研究表明，我国公共资本对私人资本存在替代作用已经显现出来，尽管替代率还不大。文章最后对这一事实进行了解释，并对目前我国财政政策的取向进行了评述。     

生产率、投资及经济增长之间的长期关系

极限产出水平是在一定供给条件卜如生产率水平和劳动力数量不变的情况下,通过固定资产投资,经济运行所能达到的最大产出水平,极限产出水平主要取决于生产率水平;长期来看,资本与产出存在一种稳定的比例关系;生产率的增长对产出和投资的增长具有一种乘数放大效应,而乘数效应大小取决于资本的产出弹性系数;一个经济实现消费最大化的条件     

中国可变参数的总量生产函数研究

本文以新古典生产函数为基础,将全要素生产率、资本和劳动产出弹性看做可变参数,利用中国省际面板数据,选取改革开放后的三个跨时期为样本区间,建立了三个跨时期可变参数总量生产函数模型。结果表明要素产出弹性参数和全要素生产率参数是随时间而变化的,而且生产技术处于规模报酬递增状态。并且未来10年的变动趋势表明资本产出弹性趋向减小,而劳动产出弹性趋向增大。整体反映出我国经济增长方式的转变趋势。     

基于面板数据的我国制造业R&D投入对专利产出的影响实证分析

基于2000年-2005年制造业29个行业的数据,运用面板数据模型实证研究了我国制造业R&D投入对专利产出的影响。结果表明:我国制造业各行业R&D经费投入对专利产出的影响显著,技术密集度较高的行业R&D经费投入弹性系数较高,反映了这些行业存在着较大的技术创新机会;而R&D人员投入弹性系数较低,说明我国制造业行业存在着冗员现象。针对分析结果,我们提出了相应的对策建议。     

河南基础设施投资的产出贡献及最优规模研究

采用1990—2012年河南省基础设施投资数据,应用生产函数法分析了河南省基础设施的产出弹性和最优投资规模。实证研究发现:基础设施资本的产出弹性为0.2514,具有显著的经济增长效应;电力行业、水利管理业等各项基础设施和基础设施总投资均未达到其最优规模,而交通运输业基础设施的实际投资在2000年至2006年超过了其最优规模,2006年之后在各项基础设施投资中最为接近其最优规模。     

重点行业资本配置扭曲对中国全要素生产率的影响

本文基于线性规划,建立重点行业间的资本要素优化模型,通过估算各重点行业的资本存量、劳动力人力资本及其产出弹性,得到各行业优化后的资本配置量和总产出,最后运用基于Fre-Primont指数的DEA方法测算各行业资本配置优化前后全要素生产率的变化。研究发现：重点行业间资本投入过度与资本投入不足现象并存,其中房地产业、交通运输仓储和邮政业以及水利环境和公共设施管理业资本要素投入过度,批发和零售业、制造业以及建筑业资本投入不足;矫正各行业资本要素配置扭曲后行业总产出和全要素生产率明显增大;矫正资本要素配置扭曲可以通过提高剩余混合效率进而提高全要素生产率效率,最终实现提高全要素生产率。     

中国工业行业R&D投入的产出效率与影响因素

运用知识生产函数模型,以中国工业行业（1993~2008）为研究对象,在将R&D资本存量分为本国本行业R&D、本国其它行业R&D、外国本行业R&D、外国其它行业R&D资本存量的基础上,首先运用随机前沿生产函数方法对中国R&D投入的产出效率进行了实证研究,随后综合考虑了人力资本、贸易开放度、技术距离、行业竞争程度、物质资本存量、行业技术水平、产权结构等因素对R&D产出效率的影响。结论显示,除外国其它行业R&D资本对R&D投入的产出效率影响不显著外,其它三种R&D资本存量均有显著的正的影响,且人力资本、贸易开放度、物质资本存量等因素均显著的促进了R&D产出效率的提升,技术距离则对R&D产出效率的提升有抑制作用,行业竞争程度对R&D产出效率影响不显著,高技术行业R&D产出效率要比非高技术行业低,国有产权比重较高行业R&D产出效率与国有产权比重较低行业相比并无显著差异。     

我国财政涉农资金对农业发展的影响因素分析

加强对农业公共领域的财政支持,为农业发展创造良好的外部环境在当前市场经济体系逐步健全条件下显得十分重要。本文以道格拉斯生产函数描述农业总产出,以资本、人力、财政涉农资金为投入要素,构建生产函数和影响因素回归方程探求财政支农支出对于资本、人力和政府投入的影响,进而建立了用以描述我国财政涉农资金对农业发展影响的联立方程组。通过计量分析发现:政府财政支农支出是影响农业总产出、农业部门年末资本形成的显著因素,而农业部门年末资本存量也与其滞后项显著相关。并且其自身也存在一定程度上的自相关性,除此之外,农业财政支出还受到财政总投入的显著影响。但政府财政投入对于农业就业的影响并不显著,由于农业"就业刚性"的存在,其主要受到农村人口总量的影响。     

外来资本、私人资本与中国经济增长

各种不同经济类型的资本对长期经济增长所发挥的作用不同,目前学术界的注意力普遍集中在FDI技术外溢效应的存在与否及其跨国验证,然而关于中国的外来资本和私人资本对经济增长的作用比较尚鲜有研究。本文在研究过程中参考了国际上近年来针对FDI技术外溢提出的"吸收能力"概念,通过较为翔实的文献考证及严密的理论分析后,选取各地区人力资本、贸易开放度、研发能力、基础设施水平、金融中介深度五个变量作为影响外资与私人资本相对优劣的因素。针对中国6个地区1994~2011年的面板数据进行的经验研究表明,在全部外来资本与私人资本的比较中,人力资本、研发能力、基础设施水平、金融中介深度均与外国资本相互作用从而促进后者对经济增长的贡献。然而,促进了私人资本在经济增长中的贡献的因素只有人力资本和贸易开放度,研发能力和金融中介深度对私人资本的贡献没有显著影响。最后,笔者针对本文的研究结论给出了政策建议。     

Roles of Public Capital in Pakistan's Economy: Productivity, Investment and Growth Analysis

This study analyzes the role of public capital in Pakistan's economy, tracing the relationship between productivity of public capital and economic growth. We estimate a production function, with public capital as an inputs. The results indicate that the productivity (output elasticity) of aggregate as well as different components of public capital are sufficiently high. We also analyze substitutability and complementarity between public and private capital by estimating investment functions, revealing that public capital has worked as a substitute for private investment. The net effect of public capital on the national economy is analyzed by estimating reduced forms, with the result that public capital has a positive net effect on national product. The growth analysis shows that the contribution of public capital is declining over time.     

人力资本与产业结构转化对经济增长的效应分析

本文根据两部门经济增长模型,以1995~2009年中国29个省际数据为对象,运用分位数回归的方法考察了人力资本、产业结构对中国经济增长的影响。理论分析和实证研究均表明：人力资本对经济增长有显著的促进作用,且在条件分布的不同位置,这种作用存在明显差异;产业结构从传统产业向现代产业的转化也是经济增长的重要推动力;人力资本的经济增长效应受产业结构的影响,与人力资本相适应的产业结构转化可以优化人力资本的配置,提高人力资本的产出效率,有助于经济持续、快速地增长。     

Capital inflows: Macroeconomic implications and policy responses

This paper examines the macroeconomic implications of and policy responses to surges in private capital inflows across a large group of emerging and advanced economies. In particular, we identify 109 episodes of large net private capital inflows to 52 countries over 1987–2007. Episodes of large capital inflows are often associated with real exchange rate appreciations and deteriorating current account balances. More importantly, such episodes tend to be accompanied by an acceleration of GDP growth, but afterwards growth has often dropped significantly. A comprehensive assessment of various policy responses to the large inflow episodes leads to three major conclusions. First, keeping public expenditure growth steady during episodes can help limit real currency appreciation and foster better growth outcomes in their aftermath. Second, resisting nominal exchange rate appreciation through sterilized intervention is likely to be ineffective when the influx of capital is persistent. Third, tightening capital controls has not in general been associated with better outcomes.     

WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED FROM THREE DECADES OF RESEARCH ON THE PRODUCTIVITY OF PUBLIC CAPITAL?

The last three decades have witnessed a great deal of research effort devoted to measuring the private output elasticity of public capital. The wide range of available estimates have precluded any consensus so far, however. This paper reconciles the empirical findings of the literature by quantitatively analyzing a sample of 578 estimates collected from 68 studies for the 1983–2008 period. Using meta‐regression analysis, we show how study design characteristics and publication bias can explain a large fraction of the variation across estimates. We find a short‐run output elasticity of public capital supplied at the central government level of 0.083, which increases to 0.122 in the long run. If, in addition, only core infrastructure at a regional/local level of government is considered, these estimates are almost doubled. The average output elasticity of public capital amounts to 0.106. Our results suggest that public capital is undersupplied in OECD economies.     

Public debt management and private financial development

In several developing countries, high and rising public debt is an important source of vulnerability. Strengthening debt management is a priority, but its effects on domestic economies have been hardly analyzed. This paper asks whether better public debt management could have spillover effects on the private sector, leading to more (and more stable) private capital flows and domestic credit. This is a relevant question in a context of financial deepening and increasing private capital inflows, which could be prone to episodes of bonanza, sudden stops and crises. Our results, based on a sample of developing countries, show positive spillover effects from better public debt management to private capital inflows and domestic financial deepening.     

资本投入对我国经济增长的影响——基于拓展的MRW框架的分析

本文基于同时包含物质资本、教育资本、健康资本和R&D资本的拓展的MRW框架,根据我国31个省(市、自治区)1998~2007年的数据,考察了资本投入对我国人均实际产出以及经济增长的影响。研究发现,物质资本投资、教育投资和R&D投资对我国人均实际产出以及经济增长具有显著的促进作用,健康投资对产出水平有显著的促进作用,但对经济增长的影响不显著。在此基础上,本文估算了我国总量的生产函数以及资本投资的回报率。此外,本文还将全要素生产率内生化,进一步考察了资本投入对我国人均实际产出与经济增长的影响。     

Long-run growth and welfare effects of public policies with distortionary taxation

In a one-sector growth model with infrastructure investment, we study the impact of fiscal policies on growth. The government collects taxes on labor income and profits. The government uses these revenues to purchase infrastructure investment, provide utility enhancing government services, and to provide transfer payments to the households. We show that the balanced growth rate is an increasing function of the percent of government revenues that goes to infrastructure. We find that the growth maximizing mix of taxes depends on the elasticity of substitution between inputs. In particular, with distortionary taxes, the growth maximizing tax rate on capital is higher the lower the elasticity of substitution between private physical capital and public capital. In addition, the growth maximizing size of the government is higher when the elasticity of substitution between public and private inputs is low. We also investigate welfare effects of other public expenditures as well. Depending on the elasticity of substitution in production, the welfare implications of different public policies can be substantial.     

公共资本生产率的比较研究——基于长三角21城市公共资本边际生产率的实证分析

近10年来长三角的政府公共投资（分配）过多地流向了上海、苏州、杭州、南京等核心城市，使这些城市的人均公共资本拥有量大幅上升，从而引发了其边际生产率递减情况的发生。但它们的资本利用效率或技术创新水平没有明显提升（或下降），不足以抵消其资本边际生产率下降的趋势。对这些大城市的经济发展来说，公共投资对其经济增长的意义已经在数量上表现得不明显，但对正处于经济快速增长期且资本边际生产率呈递增态势的长三角外缘中小城市而言，公共投资却有着积极意义。     

Capital accumulation and regulation

This paper sets up a dynamic model that analyzes a bank's capital decision and the impact of this decision on her default risk and lending that affects aggregate output in the economy under regulation. The model shows that even though capital regulation may reduce the default risk of the bank, it may lead to credit crunch, hence the ensuing decline in output in the real sector. Furthermore, it appears that the risk-based capital requirement changes the composition of both liability and asset of the bank's balance sheet.     

中国短期资本总流入量的测算与分析

本文分析了短期资本流入中国的四种隐性与非法渠道,分别估算了每种渠道流入中国的短期资本数量,给出了2001年-2009年流入中国的短期资本的总数量;借助最优短期资本流入规模模型,对比分析了2001年-2009年实际短期资本总流入量和最优短期资本总流入量;通过比较分析发现,近年来,中国实际短期资本总流入量和最优短期资本总流入量偏离值逐年增大,这种不协调会给中国经济发展和金融稳定带来一定的隐患,有必要对短期资本流入渠道进行重点关注。