Capacity-constrained Collusive Price Discrimination in the Informal Rural Credit Markets of Nepal

The author tests two alternative models of price determination in informal rural credit markets, using LSMS data from Nepal. Strong support is found for a capacity-constrained collusive oligopoly model, where lenders have full information about actual borrowers and charge heterogeneous interest rates. Only marginal support is found for a competitive cost-pricing model with imperfect information. Interest rates vary with the observable characteristics of caste, installment period, and geographical region; and they decrease as village lending capacity increases up to a certain level. Interest rates do not depend on risk related variables such as land value and loan size.     

Informal Credit Markets and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: Evidence from South Korea

This paper is an empirical investigation of the transmission of monetary policy in South Korea. It combines modern mainstream macroeconomics with aspects of a developing economy with financial dualism through a simple IS-LM type model that explicitly incorporates an informal credit market. Vector autoregression analysis, with both semistructural and structural identifications, confirms the importance of a credit variable as a policy tool. The results show direct credit allocation by the central bank had a significant impact on output, prices, and the interest rate in the informal sector. Previous theoretical and empirical findings of "stagflationary" effects of monetary policy are refuted.     

中国农村非正规金融:绩效、缺陷与治理

随着我国正规金融从农村纷纷撤走，非正规金融在农村地区迅速壮大，并为农村社会与经济发展提供了有力的金融支持。然而，由于非正规金融掌握信息的有限性和得不到法律认可与政府保护，从而它也存在许多缺陷，并对经济的平稳运行产生一些破坏作用。对待农村非正规金融，绝不能简单地否定或取缔它，而应持辩证的观点，扬长避短，因势利导，使其成为正规金融的有力补充。     

农村信贷失衡、非正式信贷市场与垂直联结

实践表明,发展中国家(包括中国)的正式信贷市场上出现了严重的信贷失衡现象,中小农户从正式信贷机构获得贷款相当困难。本文对比分析了正式信贷和非正式信贷的水平替代和垂直联结两种情况,指出给予非正式信贷机构以信贷支持,有利于为农村中的弱势农户提供更好的信贷条件,也有助于缓解农村中的信贷失衡和“金融抑制”状况。     

中国农村非正规金融和正规金融的合作模式

供给侧结构性改革着力于提高供给体系的质量和效率。在农村金融领域,不仅要求金融供给主体在数量上有增加,而且应优化资源配置结构。农村非正规金融和正规金融的互补性使得合作成为实现要素最优配置的一种方法。合作模式的稳定性对双方经营决策有决定性作用,从数理角度构建适合我国农村非正规金融机构和正规金融机构合作的模型,并得到保持稳定合作所要求的条件,最后以收集到的28个省(自治区、直辖市)4年的样本进行实证分析。结果表明:农村非正规金融与正规金融信贷量相差悬殊的省份适合寄生合作模式,而二者实力相当的省份则适合依赖成长的对称互利合作模式;寄生模式是过渡性的,而依赖成长对称互利模式能够使合作的总体效应增加。     

正式和非正式的制度

社会资本是一个非常有用的概念，但却是一个非常复杂的概念，不同的观点很多，促成了这种复杂性，组织的视角尤其提供了一个有益的框架，有理由想信，一个社会的社会资本的构成，质量和数量并不必然是最优的，社会资本受到发展过程的影响。并影响发展过程，在社会资本的提高中，存在着重要的公共角色，但谁来担当这种公共角色，以及这种公共角色应当如何担当，这些问题仍然需要大量的思考。     

基于新疆农村金融生态视角的民间借贷研究

农村金融生态是农村经济重要的资本要素配置系统,民间借贷是农村金融生态系统中不可或缺的组成要素。文章在实证分析新疆农村金融生态环境的基础上,提出从疏导和扶持农村民间借贷的视角完善新疆农村金融生态,优化农村金融资源配置,构建适应新疆新农村建设的农村金融体系。     

The Interactions between the Credit Default Swap and the Bond Markets in Financial Turmoil

We analyse the links between credit default swap (CDS) and bond spreads in order to determine which one is the leading market in the price discovery process. To do that, we construct a sample of CDS premia and bond spreads on a generic 5‐year bond for 17 financials and 18 sovereigns. First, we run panel vector error correction model estimations, showing that the CDS market has a lead over the bond market for financial institutions. This also holds for high‐yield sovereigns, whereas the reverse is found for low‐yield sovereigns in the core of the euro area. We interpret these results according to the relative liquidity of both markets for different types of entities. Second, we check for nonlinearities in the adjustment process. Results show that the CDS market's lead is amplified when default risk increases, during crisis periods, as well as continuously when CDS premia increase.     

农村正规与非正规金融发展对区域产业结构升级的影响

文章以农村正规与非正规金融发展影响区域产业结构升级的理论为基础,以我国31个省级单位1998-2012年的数据为例,实证检验了农村正规与非正规金融发展对区域产业结构升级的影响.结果发现:农村正规与非正规金融的发展有利于区域产业结构升级,且两者在促进区域产业结构升级方面的互补效应明显.同时还发现:区域的财政支出水平、人力资本水平、技术水平以及区域人均消费实力均会影响区域产业结构升级,而区域对外开放水平对区域产业结构升级的影响则并不显著.     

Macroeconomics and Credit Markets

The extent to which freedom should prevail continues to be a lingering question in the economic discipline. The article focuses on how freedom is conceptualized. The question addressed is whose freedoms are being served through economic self-governance. The profit seeking microeconomic objective of capitalists, as addressed by Karl Marx, must lead to structural change resulting in unemployment. But unemployment has disastrous social costs. So the promotion of freedom for capitalists comes at a high cost toward society. Thus it is argued that the concept of freedom is itself a paradox. Freedom itself must be constrained to be viable.     

Formal and Informal Labour Markets: Challenges and Policy in the Central and Eastern European New EU Members and Candidate Countries

The paper aims at comparing the formal and informal labour marketsin the Central and Eastern European new EU Member States andcandidate countries of the European Union. First, the currentsituation of the labour market is described, focusing on therecent developments since the breaking up of the East. Thenthe policy design of these labour markets is depicted and itseffects on formal and informal labour markets. The most importantchallenges for employment policy as well as the effects of enlargementon the labour markets are analysed. The paper ends with a shortsummary. (JEL J21, J23, H26, H11, O17, O57)     

Vertical Links Between Formal and Informal Financial Institutions

The paper investigates vertical linkages between formal and informal financial institutions. Specifically, it studies a policy that expands formal credit to informal lenders, in the hope that this will improve loan terms for borrowers who are shut out of the formal sector. Special attention is paid to the Philippines. It is argued that the effects of stronger vertical links depend on the form of lender competition. In particular, if the relationship between lenders is one of strategic cooperation (sustained by threats of reprisal in a repeated setting), an expansion of formal credit may worsen the terms faced by informal borrowers.     

正规金融、非正规金融对家户福利的影响——来自中国农村的证据

金融抑制是发展中国家所面临的重要约束,其可能给家户福利和生产活动带来损失。金融约束不仅来自于正规金融,也来自于非正规金融。利用区域转换模型,本文从两个方面论证了正规金融与非正规金融对家户福利的不同作用。实证分析表明,正规金融约束的家户采用新的农业生产技术受到限制,非农经营的效应也更低,而社会资本在一定程度上对正规金融形成了替代,弥补了其部分功能。受到非正规金融约束的家户,社会资本的功能被弱化,但采用新的农业生产技术的作用以及参与农业生产合作组织的作用由于得到正规金融的支持而更强。正规金融与非正规金融大致存在一种替代关系,农村正规金融在满足生产发展尤其是非农业生产发展的需要方面发挥着重要作用,而基于社会资本的非正规金融主要对于缓冲收入冲击起着更重要的作用。     

论我国劳动关系契约化中的正式约束与非正式约束

由于我国社会习俗、文化、价值观等非正式约束与正式约束的不匹配,导致《劳动合同法》的实施效果不尽如人意,这些非正式约束的限制主要表现在:关系经济降低了正式劳动合约的作用;集体主义制约了正式契约关系的拓展;等级制不利于建立平等的劳动契约关系;人治不利于劳动契约按法律的手段有效实施。正式制度只有在与非正式制度相容的情况下才能发挥作用,我国劳动关系契约化中正式约束与非正式约束不相适应会带来一些问题,主要表现在:它将影响我国社会从身份到契约的进程;影响我国《劳动合同法》的实施及其效果;它使劳动合同的作用难以发挥。     

农户正规信贷研究述评

发展中国家大多制定了优惠信贷政策支持农户,由于国家政策取向,农户正规信贷内涵早已超越了单纯信贷视角.相关研究演进过程中,交易成本、信息不对称、信贷约束等不断被整合进理论框架,实证模型表达形式也越来越缜密.但是,历史文献多采取农户视角判断农户正规信贷效率,研究结论也各执一词.农户正规信贷涉及多方利益,国家、农村金融机构都是利益主体,忽视任何一方的研究框架都不完整.从新近进展来看,国家效用等制度因素已经逐渐进入研究视野,农村金融机构研究也越来越贴近现实,这些都是农户正规信贷研究颇具意义的发展方向.     

Information Acquisition and Government Interventon in Credit Markets

Market failure in the financing of risky projects is studied. Project risk includes idiosyncratic and aggregate components. Banks can investigate aggregate risk and can evaluate the idiosyncratic risk of each entrepreneur. They engage in Bertrand competition for entrepreneurs using interest rates. Information obtained by a bank on aggregate risk is fully revealed, and that on entrepreneur-specific risk is partly revealed. Banks will not investigate aggregate risk and will evaluate entrepreneurs too intensively. Efficiency can be improved by public acquisition of information on industry risk and by loan guarantees partially covering losses on projects that fail.     

The Asian Recession and Northern Labour Markets

The Asian recession saw an increase in the volume of mainly manufactured Asian exports. Other things equal, this would have disadvantaged the labour intensive end of northern (mainly USA and EU) manufacturing and hence the northern manufacturing workforce. Central to the crisis, however, was a redirection of investment away from Asia to the north, raising northern aggregate demand and hence employment in northern services. This paper examines the magnitudes of these two effects in a broader analysis of the real impacts of the Asian recession that is grounded in a global general equilibrium framework. Northern workers are found to be net beneficiaries in both the short and medium run.     

Household Participation in Formal and Informal Savings Mechanisms: Evidence from Pakistan

Savings are an important determinant of both individual and national wellbeing. Typically, households employ a wide range of mechanisms for saving, including both formal and informal institutions. The choice of savings instrument has important micro- and macroeconomic implications. However, little is known empirically about the patterns of use of these instruments, or the factors affecting household decisions/ abilities to use them. The authors apply household-level data from a nationally representative survey for Pakistan to explore these issues in detail. In particular, they focus on the choice between banks and bisi , an informal saving committee similar in nature to a rotating-savings-and-credit association.     

Appropriation,Formal and Informal Sectors,and Efficient Endowment Distribution

By adding an informal sector whose output is not subject to appropriative interactions and assuming complementarity in the inputs for market production, this paper investigates how possible asymmetries in conflict affect the allocation of resources. It is shown that when the existing gap in relative appropriative skills is being closed, more resources are allocated to appropriative activities in the economy. We are, in this case, more likely to see a reduction in market activities but an increase in home activities. A poorer party is a natural producer rather than a natural fighter, which is the usual characterization of a less endowed party in the conflict analysis. By conducting a welfare analysis, this paper shows that a market-output-maximizing initial distribution of resources endowment is such that when one party has a comparative advantage in market production over appropriation, its initial fraction of total resource endowment should be greater than its relative productivity in market production.