Reassessing Conditional Cash Transfer Programs

During the past decade, the use of conditional cash transferprograms to increase investment in human capital has generatedconsiderable excitement in both research and policy forums.This article surveys the existing literature, which suggeststhat most conditional cash transfer programs are used for essentiallyone of two purposes: restoring efficiency when externalitiesexist or improving equity by targeting resources to poor households.The programs often meet their stated objectives, but in someinstances there is tension between the efficiency and equityobjectives. The overall impact of a program depends on the gainsand losses associated with each objective.      

Evaluating the Impact of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs

Several developing economies have recently introduced conditionalcash transfer programs, which provide money to poor familiescontingent on certain behavior, usually investments in humancapital, such as sending children to school or bringing themto health centers. The approach is both an alternative to moretraditional social assistance programs and a demand-side complementto the supply of health and education services. Unlike mostdevelopment initiatives, conditional cash transfer programshave been subject to rigorous evaluations of their effectivenessusing experimental or quasi-experimental methods. Evaluationresults for programs launched in Colombia, Honduras, Jamaica,Mexico, Nicaragua, and Turkey reveal successes in addressingmany of the failures in delivering social assistance, such asweak poverty targeting, disincentive effects, and limited welfareimpacts. There is clear evidence of success from the first generationof programs in Colombia, Mexico, and Nicaragua in increasingenrollment rates, improving preventive health care, and raisinghousehold consumption. Many questions remain unanswered, however,including the potential of conditional cash transfer programsto function well under different conditions, to address a broaderrange of challenges among poor and vulnerable populations, andto prevent the intergenerational transmission of poverty.      

电子支付对现金支付的替代效应研究

本文主要研究电子支付对现金支付的替代效应.首先将我国的电子支付划分为两大类,即银行卡支付和第三方支付,在此基础上建立向量误差修正模型(VECM),并进行脉冲响应分析和方差分解,分别分析银行卡支付和第三方支付对现金需求的替代效应,最终得出结论,并提出针对性建议:加强数据采集,完善数据共享机制,建设全面的支付货币统计体系;...     

基于现金流信息结构的企业组织循环效率评价的神经网络模型

本文运用组织循环理论,在分析企业组织循环效率与现金流信息结构相关关系的基础上,从理论和实证两个方面,提出对企业组织循环效率具有显著表征能力的现金流类财务指标,并据此构建基于现金流信息结构的企业组织循环效率评价的神经网络模型,力图解决评价模型在实践操作层面上的应用问题,从而为企业风险预警管理和投资者投资决策提供参考依据。     

农民外出打工对现金流通的影响及对策

近年来,随着农民外出打工人数的逐年增多,农民打工创造的经济效益越来越高.在外出打工创造经济效益的同时,也给现金流通带来一定影响.降低农民工携带现金返乡比例,减少劳务输入地现金投放压力、劳务输出地现金回笼压力和春节前现金投放压力,有效缓解人民币票币印制计划和调运压力,将显得尤为重要.     

The Effect of IFRS Adoption Conditional Upon the Level of Pre-adoption Divergence

Prior studies on whether or not International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption improves earnings quality have found mixed results. We note that some of the countries that have adopted IFRS had national accounting standards similar to IFRS prior to adopting IFRS, while others had national accounting standards divergent from IFRS. We examine the effects of IFRS adoption by taking into account the level of divergence prior to the adoption of IFRS. We find that countries experience a greater drop in earnings management when they have a higher level of divergence from IFRS prior to IFRS adoption. More specifically, high divergence countries with higher levels of enforcement benefit the most followed by high divergence countries with lower levels of enforcement. Lower divergence countries with higher levels of enforcement do not significantly benefit from IFRS adoption. Lower divergence countries with lower levels of enforcement do not benefit from IFRS adoption at all. Our results support the contention that countries with lower quality local accounting standards prior to IFRS adoption benefit more from IFRS adoption.     

Conditional versus unconditional persistence of RNOA components: implications for valuation

Financial analysis often involves decomposing variables into components, emphasizing the structured hierarchy among ratios. We distinguish between unconditional persistence (a variable’s autocorrelation coefficient), and conditional persistence (the power of a variable’s persistence to explain the persistence of a variable higher in the hierarchy). We argue that a variable’s conditional persistence determines the magnitude of its market reaction, allowing us to predict the relative magnitude of the market reaction to a ratio depending on its hierarchal level in the analysis. We examine the market reaction to the DuPont ratios and find that, while the unconditional persistence of asset turnover (ATO) is larger than that of operating profit margin (OPM), the conditional persistence of OPM is larger than that of ATO. Thus, we predict and find that the market’s reaction to OPM is stronger than that to ATO. We further decompose OPM and ATO into their second-order components and show that the market reaction depends on a component’s conditional persistence.     

金融危机背景下企业现金流运行中的政策影响研究

目前鲜有学者将企业现金流的研究视角放在宏观政策层面上,本文抓住了金融危机这一契机,以财政政策为研究对象,将其对企业现金流的影响分为财政政策在宏观层面的传导、财政政策在宏观微观间的传导、财政政策在微观层面的传导三大过程进行尝试性分析,得出传导链条,并提出了危机中企业现金流管理的两大关注点,以期对危机中企业现金流断流风险的防范以及相关宏观经济政策的制定有所帮助。     

Working for patients: Making the internal market effective

To be effective, the internal market for health care involves a recognition that there are different types of market, each with its own characteristics. Written contracts can only go so far. There is also a need to create administrative infrastructures which will ensure that the different markets function effectively.     

Organizational Capital and Investment‐Cash Flow Sensitivity: The Effect of Management Quality Practices

This paper examines the influence of organizational capital, as evident in management quality practices, on the response of firm investment to internal cash flows. We provide novel and strong evidence that investment sensitivity to internal cash flows decreases in the presence of superior management practices. We also find that superior management practices reduce the firm's financing frictions, evident in lower capital constraints. Our results are robust to numerous tests. Overall, our findings suggest that intangible organizational capital is important for investment decisions and that superior management practices contribute to value‐maximizing behavior.     

Investment Incentives: New Money, Debt Relief, and the Critical Role of Conditionality in the Debt Crisis

External debt depresses investment and lowers economic growthbelow its potential through its negative effect on liquidityand expected profitability. These effects can pull a countryinto a downward spiral in which both the debtor country andcreditors lose. This article considers the possibilities forrevising contracts between a debtor and its creditors once adebt crisis has erupted. The framework that we develop showshow various combinations of new money and cuts in debt and debtservice affect a debtor country's welfare, its debt repayments,and the earnings of its creditors. The analysis distinguishesbetween debtor countries that are willing and able to precommitcredibly to an adjustment program and those that are not. Thisdistinction provides the basis for a discussion of conditionallending by the international financial institutions to provideincentives and sanctions that make credible a debtor's promisesto invest.     

On the Determinants of SME Cash Holdings: Evidence from Spain

Abstract:  This work analyses the factors that might explain the level of cash holdings in a sample of 860 small and medium-sized firms from Spain during the period 1996–2001. The empirical results show that firms have a target cash level to which they attempt to converge. The level of this target is higher for firms with more growth opportunities and larger cash flows. In contrast, the target level for cash holdings falls when the use of bank debt and the presence of substitutes for cash increase. Moreover, when the interest rates in the economy increase firms reduce their cash holding.     

The incidence of Cash for Clunkers: Evidence from the 2009 car scrappage scheme in Germany

This paper investigates the German car scrappage program, focusing on the incidence of the premium. We ask how much of the €2500 ($3500) buyer subsidy is actually captured by the demand side. More precisely, we analyze the program’s impact on different car segments, allowing for heterogeneity in incidence at different points in the vehicle price distribution. Using a unique microtransaction data set, we find that the incidence of the subsidy strongly and significantly varies across price segments. Subsidized buyers of cheap cars paid a little more than comparable buyers who did not receive the subsidy, indicating incidence amounts slightly below 100 %. For more expensive vehicles, subsidized buyers were granted large extra discounts on top of the government premium, translating into incidence amounts considerably greater than 100 %. Taken together, this results in an aggregate incidence amount of up to plus €350 million, suggesting that the positive effect for expensive cars overcompensates the negative effect for small cars.     

The Relationship between Earnings,Funds Flows and Cash Flows: Evidence for the UK

Recent UK information content studies have provided evidence of a significant relationship between earnings and share prices, as in the US, but have also identified an apparent lack of information content for operating cash flow, which is in marked contrast to findings from US research. This paper provides direct evidence on the relationship between earnings, funds flows and cash flows in the UK during the period 1965–84, using tests of association and predictive tests based on a research methodology applied by Bowen, Burgstahler and Daley (1986) to US data. The results provide UK evidence on the contemporaneous and predictive relationships between measures of earnings, funds flows and cash flows which are generally consistent with the US findings of Bowen et al. and which do not support the view that earnings in the UK are superior to cash flows as predictors of future cash flows.     

如何有效建立外币现金的跨境流通监测体系

随着全球经济一体化进程的加快和我国金融市场的进一步开放,外币现金跨境流通频率越来越高,情况越来越复杂,部门监管的难度也在不断增大.因此迫切需要建立一套外币现金跨境流通的统计监测体系,以实现对货币流通的有效监测,防止或减少金融市场进一步开放带来的风险和负面效应.     

贷款公证:防范贷款法律风险的有效手段

要避免银行在信贷操作中出现的法律风险,最有效的办法就是银行贷款包括存在敞口的承兑汇票和信用证等具有融资性质的事项均应办理公证。公证在信贷中的使用将成为一道风险“防火墙”。     

现金持有量的现金流敏感性实证研究:来自2000—2009年食品饮料行业上市公司的证据

本文对2000—2009年中国食品饮料行业上市公司的样本数据进行了实证研究,发现小规模公司现金持有量对其内部现金流表现出一定程度的敏感性,而大规模公司的现金持有量则对其内部现金流没有表现出敏感性。原因可能在于小规模公司比大规模公司面临更强的融资约束。     

多元化企业有效内部资本市场的均衡配置效应研究

由于投资者保护不完善产生的金融市场的不完美性,从事"挑选胜者"的多元化企业发现,即使经济中有额外资本需求的高生产率项目,通过内部资本市场将稀缺资本配置给平庸项目也是最优的.即使多元化企业的内部资本市场有效,这种内部资本配置偏见也会降低配置效率,因为多元化企业的存在可能使其他公司的融资更为困难.在金融发展处于中等程度的国家,与其多元化企业相联系的负外部性成本特别高,高度多元化会产生家族企业集团控制公司部门的情形,这可能降低市场效率.