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当前我国中长期国债利率的风险研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
自从2002年2月以来,我国债券市场上的利率风险逐步升温。这不仅导致目前我国债券收益率曲 线和基准利率失实,更重要的是将误导今后政府债券发行的定价及其他金融市场利率的确定。文章分析了 形成目前我国债市利率风险的原因及防范措施,希望能对其研究有所帮助。 相似文献
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在总结现有研究债券流动性文献的基础上,构建了针对中小企业债券这种流动性极差的债券流动性指标,并对常见的债券流动性影响因素进行了检验。实证结果显示,信用风险和投资者特征对中小企业债券流动性的影响在统计上显著。随后在实证的基础上又针对性地提出了政策建议,主要取向是弥合债券投资者风险偏好和中小企业债券所含信用风险的差距。具体措施包括降低有效信用风险、用衍生品对冲信用风险,以及引入高风险承受能力的投资者等。 相似文献
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企业债券作为直接融资的主要方式之一,其风险问题成为当下研究的热点。本文基于风险与收益的关系建立了一个多因素线性回归模型,并通过逐步回归的方法确定了最终的模型变量及系数。实证结果显示,企业债券的超额收益率与利率风险及信用风险显著相关,其中利率风险能够较好的体现系统性风险。 相似文献
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债券期限与发行价格的关系探讨 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文通过分析与举例来说明债券期限与债券发行价格两者之间的正确关系:当票面利率大于市场利率时,期限越长,债券发行价格越高;当票面利率小于市场利率时,期限越长,债券发行价格越低;当票面利率等于市场利率时,期限不影响债券发行价格。 相似文献
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本文通过分析与举例来说明债券期限与债券发行价格两者之间的正确关系:当票面利率大于市场利率时,期限越长,债券发行价格越高;当票面利率小于市场利率时,期限越长,债券发行价格越低;当票面利率等于市场利率时,期限不影响债券发行价格。 相似文献
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物价指数与债券内部收益率的理论和实证分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文以附息国债为例,研讨债券内部收益率与物价指数的关系,推导出考虑物价因素的债券投资价值分析的理论模型,对债券内部收益率与物价指数、利率的关系作了实证分析。 一、理论模型 1.债券投资价值分析的基本原理 在1996年以前,我国发行的债券都是到期一次还本付息的。因此,一般都用计算到期收益率来作定量分析,与定期储蓄存款没有什么区别。即任何时点的债券价格都是由未来利息的现值加上债券到期的面值的现值构成。用公式表述为: 相似文献
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债券发行方式与定价是债券投融中的重要问题。采用数理方法对债券票面利率与市场利率决定债券发行方式的原理加以证明,可以更深刻解析决定债券发行方式与定价的内在机理,具有一定的理论与实际意义。 相似文献
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流动性风险对我国公司债券信用利差的影响——基于次贷危机背景的研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
基于2007年4月至2009年9月的周数据,就次贷危机时期流动性风险对我国公司债券信用利差的变化进行了实证研究。结果表明,公司债券信用利差的变化与非流动性指标之间存在稳定的正相关关系,且在控制其他变量之后该结果依然是稳健的,说明流动性风险已融入我国公司债券信用利差中。尤其是在次贷危机背景下,流动性风险对信用利差的影响显著增强了。 相似文献
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《管理科学学报(英文)》2021,6(1):99-110
This paper analyzes the influence of downside risk on defaultable bond returns. By introducing a defaultable bond-trading model, we show that the decline in market risk tolerance and information accuracy leads to trading loss under downside conditions. Our empirical analysis indicates that downside risk can explain a large proportion of the variation in yield spreads and contains almost all valid information on liquidity risk. As the credit level decreases, the explanatory power of downside risk increases significantly. We also investigate the predictive power of downside risk in cross-sectional defaultable bond excess returns using a portfolio-level analysis and Fama-MacBeth regressions. We find that downside risk is a strong and robust predictor for future bond returns. In addition, due to the higher proportion of abnormal transactions in the Chinese bond market, downside risk proxy semi-variance can better explain yield spreads and predict portfolio excess returns than the proxy value at risk. 相似文献
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This paper examines the dynamics of the liquidity premium in the Chinese stock market by adopting a multivariate decomposition approach to measure the individual contributions of various driving forces of the premium (such as firm size, idiosyncratic volatility, and market liquidity betas). By employing a wide range of liquidity measures, we show that liquidity premium is generally significant in the Chinese stock market. Furthermore, this premium is increasing in recent years starting from 2011; this observation is different from the United States market, in which the premium has declined over the years. Moreover, the multivariate decomposition approach highlights several asset pricing factors as the main driving forces of the premium. Based on the Amihud liquidity measure, the decomposition approach indicates that the size factor contributes 45–65% to the liquidity premium. However, the measure based on turnover suggests that idiosyncratic volatility accounts for at least 60% of the liquidity premium. In contrast, the global market liquidity beta does not significantly contribute to the premium. However, there is some evidence that the local market liquidity beta has become more significant in its impact on the premium during the period from 2011 to 2015. Our results imply that the findings on the liquidity premium in the Chinese stock market could be sensitive to the liquidity measure used and period of analysis. 相似文献
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Jonathan A. Batten Karren Lee‐Hwei Khaw Martin R. Young 《Journal of economic surveys》2014,28(5):775-803
Convertible bonds are an important segment of the corporate bond market, with worldwide outstandings approaching US$235 billion. Simple pricing models value a convertible bond as being equivalent to a straight bond with an embedded option that enables the bond holder to convert to a specific amount of common stock. The straight bond is subject to both interest rate and credit risk, whereas the option to convert is dependent on the underlying stock price, which exposes the convertible bond holder to equity risk. The complexity of these features means that convertible bonds tend to be treated casually in major derivatives and corporate finance textbooks. This paper presents a survey of the theoretical and empirical aspects of convertible bond pricing. The limitations of these studies are highlighted to identify those areas of research that may improve the valuation process and facilitate the application of these securities for corporate financing. 相似文献
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资产流动性是否影响资产的价格一直是资本市场理论研究的热点问题,也是投资者决策的重要理论依据之一。本文系统回顾了国内外有关流动性溢价理论的研究现状,分析了我国股市流动性溢价的影响因素,并指出了我国在流动性溢价理论研究方面所存在的问题以及未来的研究方向。 相似文献
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本文认为,债务期限结构错配是我国许多高速扩张企业出现流动性财务危机的主要原因之一,但在现有商业银行信贷期限结构错配和企业债券市场不发达的金融背景约束下,我国企业很难通过增加长期债务的方式来改变债务期限与资产期限错配的问题,唯有通过降低财务杠杆的方法来降低流动性风险。在现有金融市场条件下,企业现实的选择是债务期限结构错配和低财务杠杆,不能采用高财务杠杆方式来实现企业的高速增长,否则很容易陷入财务困境。 相似文献
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We introduce longitudinal factor analysis (LFA) to extract the common risk‐free (CRF) rate from a sample of sovereign bonds of countries in a monetary union. Since LFA exploits the typically very large longitudinal dimension of bond data, it performs better than traditional factor analysis methods that rely on the much smaller cross‐sectional dimension. European sovereign bond yields for the period 2006–2011 are decomposed into a CRF rate, a default risk premium and a liquidity risk premium. Our empirical findings suggest that investors chase both credit quality and liquidity, and that they price double default risk on credit default swaps. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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考虑违约风险的可转换债券定价新模型 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
随着近几年我国证券市场可转换债券的发展,对其进行定价成为学界的一个热门课题。利用期权定价方法对可转换债券进行定价,并得到了一个考虑违约风险的可转换债券定价新模型。 相似文献
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This paper provides a default-risky bond valuation model, which assumes that the issuer’s credit quality, modelled by the
intensity of default, is driven by a continuous-time Markov chain. The model accounts for default and liquidity risk as well
as incomplete information. A full-information semimartingale representation of a liquid defaultable bond price, which separates
three different types of risks—default, interest-rate and credit-quality, is obtained. The illiquidity is modelled as exogenously
specified stochastic reduction in the price of the bond, which adds more risks for the investors. A model of a market with
partially informed investors, belonging to specific investor classes and having access to discrete information sets about
credit quality, was specified. Valuations of defaultable bonds in this market were provided as well as price impacts of the
new information releases.
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Yiannos A. Pierides 《Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control》1997,21(10):1579-1611
This paper considers the pricing of derivatives that protect holders of corporate bonds from a reduction in their value because of a deterioration in their credit quality. These derivatives are structured as either puts on the bond price or calls on the bond spread (above the risk free rate) in the context of models developed by Merton (1974) and Black and Cox (1976). The pricing properties of these options are derived using both analytical and numerical methods. 相似文献