风险投资决策评价方法的比较分析

风险投资的投资决策方法较多,实践中常用的有贴现现金流量法,但这种方法管理柔性差,战略适应性不强,通常会低估项目的投资价值;而实物期权法,可使决策者在投资决策中有意识地构造实物期权,并利用金融期权理论正确评估项目的价值。所以用实物期权法来评价风险投资决策更优于贴现现金流量法。     

产品研发项目中的财务决策

新产品开发风险难以控制是许多创新型企业的面临的难题。本文首先分析了产品开发中企业面临的主要三种风险:财务风险、市场风险和研发阶段风险。为控制风险,本文对比了技术导向为主和引入财务投资决策原理的两种研发项目决策流程,通过分析得出:在研发项目决策中运用财务投资决策原理,可以提高研发项目决策的科学性,达到风险控制,改善管理、提高企业效益的目的。     

投资决策的三种基本方法的比较

投资决策是项目起始阶段的重要工作之一,对项目的成败有决定性影响。决策结束后,项目很大程度是不可逆的。目前用来投资决策的常用理论方法有三种:净现值法、实物期权法和期权博弈法。本文对投资决策的三种方法作了分析比较,阐述了三种决策方法优缺点及其适用范围,指出在项目投资决策中应根据项目特点正确应用决策方法。     

基于实物期权的投资解决方案及计算技术比较

不确定条件下的实业投资项目具有明显的期权特征,可以运用实物期权方法对不确定性投资进行思考决策。结合实物期权理论的发展,构造了基于实物期权的投资决策解决方案,比较分析了投资决策中实物期权的计算技术。     

基于多个追加投资机会的风险项目投资决策研究

分析了投资机会具有期权特性时对风险项目投资价值、投资决策的影响,对风险投资决策中采用的传统现金流量折现法(DCF法)进行了修正,构建了一个适用于存在多个追加投资机会的风险投资决策模型并利用该模型进行了案例分析。     

火电项目融资的现金流量风险评价——基于探索图的指标体系

已有关于火电项目风险的研究基本未重点考察现金流量风险。本文从火电项目融资的角度出发,发现现金流量风险的重要性,尝试性地运用复杂科学管理系统思维的工具——探索图,为火电项目的建设期、试生产期和生产运营期分别建立风险评估指标体系,并用动态模糊评价方法确定每期和全过程的现金流量风险程度,为火电项目融资决策提供依据。     

投资决策的三种基本方法的比较

投资决策是项目起始阶段的重要工作之一,对项目的成败有决定性影响.决策结束后,项目很大程度是不可逆的.作为一项复杂的系统工程,必须用足够的投入对项目的适应性、盈亏性及风险进行充分评价,遵循决策程序,应用正确的决策理论和方法,降低项目投资的风险.     

基于实物期权的风险投资决策分析

本文通过对风险投资的特点和传统投资决策方法的分析,指出了传统投资决策方法(DCF法)在评价风险投资项目上的不足之处。然后引入实物期权思想分析了风险投资决策的过程,并分别运用两种期权定价模型(Black-Scholes模型和二叉树模型),通过实例对风险投资项目进行了价值评估,指出了在运用实物期权方法进行投资决策时应该注意的问题。     

企业投资项目比选决策方法研究

由于信息不对称或者有些投资项目本身没有先例可循,企业投资项目存在很大风险.为了较全面地考察项目投资所面临的各种因素,作出合理的项目投资决策,采用多属性决策中确定属性权重的熵权法联合决策者对属性重要性认识的主观权重和用于排序比较的TOPSIS法,为企业投资项目的比选决策提供一种新的决策方法.该方法综合考虑了决策者的主观权重和投资项目各影响因素信息之间固有的客观权重、综合考虑了风险和收益的多方面因素对投资项目作出比选决策.最后举一项目投资比选实例加以说明.     

净现值法在投资项目资本预算研究中的风险调整方法

本文针对风险因素带来的投资决策风险,结合通货膨胀等等因素的影响,对净现值法中两个重要指标——现金流量和贴现率进行调整,以保证决策正确有效。     

Cash flow effects on economic growth

Policy makers have traditionally considered the macroeconomic relations and the variables that can affect the economic objectives that they pursue, such as prices, employment, balance of payments, and economic growth. Recently, microeconomic behavior has also been considered. To complete the analysis, it is necessary to include those variables that define the firm's evolution and activities, and cash flow could be this kind of variable to be included in the analysis. The main objective of this paper is to show the relationship between cash flow and one of the final economic policy targets, economic growth. This paper considers the relationship between cash flow and applied economics, then develops the effects of cash flow on economic growth.     

A Minimax Regret Analysis of Flood Risk Management Strategies Under Climate Change Uncertainty and Emerging Information

This paper studies the dynamic application of the minimax regret (MR) decision criterion to identify robust flood risk management strategies under climate change uncertainty and emerging information. An MR method is developed that uses multiple learning scenarios, for example about sea level rise or river peak flow development, to analyse effects of changes in information on optimal investment in flood protection. To illustrate the method, optimal dike height and floodplain development are studied in a conceptual model, and conventional and adaptive MR solutions are compared. A dynamic application of the MR decision criterion allows investments to be changed after new information on climate change impacts, which has an effect on today’s optimal investments. The results suggest that adaptive MR solutions are more robust than the solutions obtained from a conventional MR analysis of investments in flood protection. Moreover, adaptive MR analysis with multiple learning scenarios is more general and contains conventional MR analysis as a special case.     

基于多视角的PFI项目风险评估研究

PFI（Private Finance Initiative）是目前发达国家广泛推行的一种新的民营资本参与公共投资的项目建设管理模式。政府在确定PFI项目的时候,需要考虑众多因素,从不同角度客观论证项目的可行性。这其中,项目的风险是PFI项目决策时必须考虑的问题。PFI项目相对于传统公共项目而言,风险体系的建立、风险评估的方法都会有其特殊性。同样的风险对于不同的主体会产生不同的影响。本文建立了PFI项目的风险评估指标体系,并且在利益相关者分析的基础上,综合三大主要利益相关者——政府公共部门、SPC、使用者（公众）的群体意见,运用基于格栅获取的模糊Borda数方法实现了PFI项目风险的多视角评估。对多个备选PFI项目中进行多视角评估,可实现项目决策的优先排序;对单一项目进行多视角评估,可反映项目的风险水平;最后通过算例验证该方法的可行性、有效性和实用性。PFI模式在我国适逢良好的发展机遇,相关的理论研究正成为热点,风险管理就是其中的一大方面,对此所作的探讨是必须且有意义的。     

区间净现值法在投资决策中的应用

虽然净现值法目前在投资方案评价中被广为应用,但该方法仍存在年净现金流量及折现率难以确定、决策缺乏经营柔性等问题。本文利用模糊决策理论对净现值法进行了改进,从而提高决策的科学性和准确性,使投资决策更为合理。     

Replacing Corporate Income Tax with a Cash Flow Tax

We design a parsimonious cash flow tax for Australia and estimate revenue effects. It allows immediate deduction of all capital expenditures, denies deductions of interest payments, and compensates negative cash flows at the same rate and time as it taxes positive cash flows. It allows taxpayer timing choice on implementation over 10 years. It has incentive effects comparable to lowering the corporate income tax rate to zero. It removes distortions that artificially favour debt over equity, short- over long-term investments, rents over competitive returns, large, established over small and new businesses, and conventional over innovative investments. It closes international tax evasion loopholes. Its spur to investment and timing of revenue impacts favours implementation in recession.     

股利政策的因素分析：制度和技术的解释——基于公司成长性特征的实证分析

本文以763家上海证券交易所A股上市公司2003年的横截面数据为观察值，从制度和技术两个层面实证分析了现金股利政策的影响因素，分别考察了股权结构和组织特征对现金股利支付率的解释力。本文发现，股权结构（股权集中度和大股东持股）和组织特征（盈利能力、盈余水平、现金拥有量、公司规模和财务杠杆）均对现金股利政策具有一定的影响（而且大多数影响在统计上是显著的）；大股东整体上具有分配现金股利的倾向和能力。企业成长性机会能够弱化大股东集团分配现金股利的激励，并促使公司保留更多的现金用于有价值的投资机会。     

行业因素影响上市公司首发现金股利决策吗?

本文通过对2001～2008年424个上市公司首次发放现金股利行为的跟踪调查,系统性地从行业股利分配、行业竞争程度、行业成长性以及行业自信水平四个维度研究了行业因素对上市公司首发现金股利决策的影响。研究发现:(1)行业整体股利分配对上市公司首发股利产生显著正面影响,表明上司公司股利的首次发放具有行业追随效应;(2)行业成长性和行业自信水平对上市公司的首发现金股利产生负向影响,但行业竞争程度并没有对上市公司首发股利产生显著影响;(3)半强制分红政策强化了行业因素对上市公司首发现金股利政策的影响。     

Economic impact assessment of mega infrastructure pipeline projects

The economic development features for the decades after the Second World War provide evidence that investments to new infrastructures are a key driver in strengthening the national economy and enhancing nation’s productivity, as it creates economic benefits and additional income. However, the decision for fund allocation and investments in mega infrastructure pipeline projects often must be made in conditions that are much more fraught with uncertainty. The key question in such decisions is if the economic impact caused by the new project could be able to essentially boost the economy by creating new jobs and generating new income on one hand; and which are the business sectors expected to archive the benefits of this investment. This article deals with the estimation of the mega infrastructure pipeline project economic effects in economy. The methodological framework is based on input–output approach providing quantitative estimations about the economic impact of the project in terms of new income and jobs. The numerical application deals with the assessment of a cross-border crude oil pipeline project, connecting the ports of Burgas (Bulgaria) and Alexandroupolis (Greece), establishing a new transportation corridor for the crude oil from Black Sea to Southeast Mediterranean.     

The adequacy of volatility for the elaboration of technology valuation based on real options

When evaluating the economic value of a technology or business project, we need to consider the period and cost for commercialisation. Since the discounted cash flow (DCF) method has limitations in that it can not consider consecutive investments or does not reflect the probabilistic property of commercialisation cost, we often take it desirable to apply the concept of real options with key metrics of underlying asset value, commercialisation cost, and volatility, while regarding the value of technology and investment as the opportunity value. We provide more elaborated real options model, which reflects the uncertainty in the option pricing model (OPM).