Measurement of technical and allocative efficiencies using a CES cost frontier: a benchmarking study of Japanese transmission-distribution electricity

This paper estimates the technical and allocative inefficiencies of the transmission-distribution sector of Japanese electric utilities using a panel data during the 1981–1998 period. A stochastic production frontier of the CES form is jointly estimated with input demand equations. Taking advantage of the self-duality, we retrieve the cost frontier by which the impacts of technical and allocative inefficiencies on costs and input demands are measured. The estimated elasticity of substitution is significantly different from unity in favor of the CES specification over the Cobb–Douglas. The results show that observed costs are 9 to 48% higher than the efficient level; technical inefficiency raises costs by 1 to 28%, while allocative inefficiency does so by 8 to 30%. Although their impacts on costs are similar, technical inefficiency more fluctuates so the differences in the performance of utilities are mainly due to technical inefficiency. We also find a substantial over-utilization of capital for all utilities.

The contributions of technical and allocative efficiency to the economic performance of European railways

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the relative contributions of allocative and technical efficiency to the productivity performance of European railways over the period 1972 to 1999. A stochastic frontier approach is used to analyse the cost structure of the railway industry. We estimate a translog cost system in which allocative inefficiency is modelled through an exact relationship between the cost share equations and the cost function. To allow the estimation of such a model using the sample theory approach we assume that the share equation residuals represent deviations from first-order conditions and, therefore, that they represent exclusively allocative inefficiencies. The use of this simplifying assumption renders our analysis computationally tractable, but it could be inconsistent with the economic theory of duality and for that reason caution is required in interpretation of results. Acknowledging this caveat, we find that European railways have experienced significant cost increases due to inefficient behaviour, with a mean value of around 15%. In contrast to previous studies, however, our estimates indicate a larger role for allocative inefficiency, which accounts for around of a half of the total increase in cost inefficiency.

Specification and estimation of nonstandard profit functions

This paper critically examines appropriateness of the nonstandard profit function (NSPF) as a tool for measuring profit efficiency. We show that there are some fundamental problems with the NSPF approach, the way it is currently specified and estimated. This is true irrespective of whether technical inefficiency is included or not. Instead of estimating profit efficiency directly from the NSPF, we suggest alternative specifications and recommend using the cost function approach and deriving profit efficiency therefrom. Data from US banks are used to estimate the cost function and the NSPF. Results from alternative specifications are then compared and analyzed.

Financial intermediation and growth: causality and causes without outliers

In a seminal paper, Levine et al. (J Monet Econ 46:31–77, 2000) provide cross-sectional evidence showing that financial development has positive average impact on long-run growth, using a sample of 71 countries. We argue that the evidence is sensitive to the presence of outliers.

Modelling Exogenous Variables in Human Capital Formation through a Heteroscedastic Stochastic Frontier

The objective of this paper is to suggest the use of a stochastic frontier model in which the inefficiency component is heteroscedastic in the measurement of technical efficiency in Human Capital Formation in the Italian University System. The heteroscedastic frontier model enables one to consider the effect of students’ individual characteristics and the influences of the resources and organization of the specific faculty on efficiency. The suggested model is applied to the case of Florence University graduates. The results show that the model specification is strongly supported by the data. Moreover, the suggested specification explains variation in technical efficiency in terms of graduate-specific factors. The technical efficiency scores obtained are comparable across faculties.

Optimal simple rules and the lower bound on the nominal interest rate in the Christiano–Eichenbaum–Evans model of the US business cycle

Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe (NBER wp 10724, 2004b) analyzes the optimal, simple and implementable monetary policy rules in a medium-scale macromodel, as the one proposed by Christiano et al. (J Polit Econ 113:1–45, 2005). In doing so, they use a sensible, but somewhat arbitrary constraint to account for the lower bound condition on the nominal interest rate. In this work, we check the robustness of their main results to such a criteria. We find that the optimal policies are actually absolutely robust to the easing of this criterion for all the different cases considered.

Transaction tax and stock market behavior: evidence from an emerging market

This study examines the impact of a stamp tax rate increase on market behavior, using data from two stock exchanges in China. We find that when the tax rate increases from 0.3 to 0.5% (which implies that the transaction cost increases by about 1/3) trading volume decreases by 1/3. This implies an elasticity of turnover with respect to a stamp tax of −50% and an elasticity of turnover with respect to transaction cost of −100%. The markets’ volatility significantly increases after the increase in the tax rate. Furthermore, the change in the volatility structure indicates that the markets become less efficient in the sense that shocks are less quickly assimilated in the markets.

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Openness and the Efficiency of FDI: A Panel Stochastic Production Frontier Study

This paper uses a stochastic translog production frontier to estimate technical inefficiency indices whose conditional mean is specified as a function of FDI and its interaction with openness of the economy. The model is estimated using an annual panel of 46 countries for the years, 1981–2001. The results suggest that increased FDI increases potential output in both developed and developing countries with the effect being more profound in the former. It is also found that increased FDI reduces technical inefficiencies the more open is the economy but that this effect holds only for developed economies. Thus qualified support is found for the “Bhagwati hypothesis” as the results reveal that the efficiency–enhancing effect of FDI depends not only on openness but also on the degree of development of the host country.

Growth and inflation forecasts for Germany a panel-based assessment of accuracy and efficiency

We analyse forecasts of professional forecasters for Germany regarding the time span from 1970 to 2004. This novel panel data set renders it possible to assess the accuracy and efficiency of growth and inflation forecasts more efficiently than in previous studies. We argue that the forecasts are, on average, unbiased and weakly—but not strongly—efficient. Using model confidence sets suggested by Hansen et al. (2004), we find that, besides the effect of diverging forecasting dates, no other substantial differences in forecasting quality among forecasters exist. Nevertheless, on the basis of a direction-of-change analysis we argue that it is not always advisable to listen to the majority of forecasters.

The value of rents and the likelihood of conflicts

This paper extends the prey–predator model of Grossman and Kim (J Political Econ 103:1275–1288, 1995) to analyze the relation between the value of a contested rent and the emergence of conflict. We show that an increase in the value of the rent makes a conflict equilibrium more likely. We also analyze the case where the valuation of the rent is different for the two players. We find, for example, that a conflict equilibrium may occur even though the predator has an important disadvantage in warfare. That is when his valuation of the rent is sufficiently high compared to that of the prey.

Measuring environmental efficiency of industry: a case study of thermal power generation in India

Technical and environmental efficiency of some coal-fired thermal power plants in India is estimated using a methodology that accounts for firm’s efforts to increase the production of good output and reduce pollution with the given resources and technology. The methodology used is directional output distance function. Estimates of firm-specific shadow prices of pollutants (bad outputs), and elasticity of substitution between good and bad outputs are also obtained. The technical and environmental inefficiency of a representative firm is estimated as 0.06 implying that the thermal power generating industry in Andhra Pradesh state of India could increase production of electricity by 6/ while decreasing generation of pollution by 6%. This result shows that there are incentives or win–win opportunities for the firms to voluntarily comply with the environmental regulation. It is found that there is a significant variation in marginal cost of pollution abatement or shadow prices of bad outputs across the firms and an increasing marginal cost of pollution abatement with respect to pollution reduction by the firms. This result calls for the use of economic instruments like pollution taxes instead of command and control regulation used currently in India to reduce air pollution.

Team production with inequity-averse agents

This paper analyzes the efficiency of team production when risk-neutral agents exhibit other-regarding preferences. It is shown that full efficiency can be sustained as an equilibrium of a budget-balancing mechanism that punishes some randomly chosen agents if output falls short of the efficient level but distributes output equally otherwise. The result depends on agents being sufficiently inequity-averse.

A reassessment of the Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis of perfect capital mobility: evidence from historical data

This short paper explores the relationship between investment and saving rates in a sample of 13 OECD countries over the period 1885–1992. To this end, I employ panel cointegration tests based on the maximum likelihood approach developed by Johansen (J Economic Dynamics Control 12:231–254, 1988) instead of conventional panel cointegration residual based tests, in order to draw sharper conclusions. Using estimation techniques appropriate for heterogeneous panels I find a low degree of capital mobility for the sub-periods 1921–1992 and 1950–1992. The findings overwhelmingly support the hypothesis of perfect capital mobility in the short run.

Conformism and cooperation in a local interaction model

We analyze a local interaction model where agents play a bilateral prisoner’s dilemma game with their neighbors. Agents learn about behavior through payoff-biased imitation of their interaction neighbors (and possibly some agents beyond this set). We find that the Eshel et al. (Am Econ Rev 88:157–179, 1998) result that polymorphic states are stochastically stable in such a setting is not robust. In particular, whenever agents use information also of some agents beyond their interaction neighbors, the unique stable outcome is one where everyone chooses defection. Introducing a sufficiently strong conformist bias into the imitation process, we find that full cooperation always emerges. Conformism is thus identified as a new mechanism that can stabilize cooperation.

The joint dynamics of inflation, unemployment and interest rate in the United States since 1980

In this paper, by using a combination of long-run and short-run restrictions, we identify a small structural VECM which includes inflation, unemployment and the federal funds rate and study the dynamic interactions at different frequencies among these variables. Our results show that: (a) in accordance with the traditional view of economic fluctuations, aggregate demand shocks and monetary policy shocks push inflation and unemployment in opposite directions in the short run; (b) the permanent supply shock explains the long-run movement of inflation and unemployment. These conclusions are at odds with the prediction of “natural-rate” models but are consistent with the idea of a propagation mechanism which links productivity shocks to inflation and unemployment at medium and low frequencies. Thus, with respect to some recent studies (e.g. Beyer and Farmer, ECB Working Paper 121, 2002, and Ireland, J Monet Econ 44:279–291, 1999), we offer a different interpretation of the low-frequency comovements between inflation and unemployment characterizing the US economy in the last decades.

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Resourceship</Emphasis>: An Austrian theory of mineral resources

Economists inside and outside of the Austrian-school tradition have formulated a subjectivist theory of mineral resources. While von Mises (1940) presented a rudimentary theory, institutionalist Zimmermann (1933 and after) provided an in-depth mind-centered approach distinct from the objective, neoclassical theory for minerals developed by Jevons (1865, 1866), Gray (1913), and Hotelling (1931). A full-fledged Austrian theory identifies the fixity/depletionism view of minerals as incompatible with entrepreneurship. Mineral resourceship, praxeologically akin to manufacturing, or the making of capital goods, demotes the distinction between depletable and nondepletable resources for the sciences of human action. Instead of nonreproducibility, the interplay of geography and institutions becomes the locus of mineral-resource theory, given the nonuniform distribution of deposits. An Austrian-institutional theory is more robust for explaining changes in mineral-resource scarcity than neoclassical depletionism, and offers a wide research agenda for current debates over resource production, usage, and future availability.

Why the structure of capital and the useful lives of its components matter: A test based on a model of Austrian descent

This paper centers on the structure of capital and the useful lives of its components by considering an economy with two representative firms, one producing a necessity and another producing a luxury. This difference determines their reinvestment opportunities. Therefore, while the one applies replacement, the other adopts scrapping. However, as these capital policies lead to different service lives, the analysis confronts the issues raised by Miller (Review of Income and Wealth 29:284–296, 1982, Review of Income and Wealth 36:67–82, 1990) and deals with them by drawing on Haavelmo’s (A study in the theory of investment, Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1960) suggestions regarding the aggregation of capital. Among other findings, it turns out that the simulation results are highly robust, thus demonstrating that real-world implications may be even stronger than strictly suggested by the model.

The behavior of the exchange rate in the genetic algorithm with agents having long memory

This paper studies the behavior of the exchange rate in Kareken and Wallace (1981)'s model under the genetic algorithm adaptation with agents having long memory. The simulation results show that, if agents have full memory, the average portfolio fraction will converge, and the initial equilibrium that it converges to is history dependent. Under the lasting evolutionary pressure of the noise trader, the market will eventually drift from one equilibrium to another, and asymptotically will converge to the neighborhood of an equilibrium with agents putting their savings equally into two currencies. If the agents do not have full memory, the foreign exchange market will show periodic crisis. Before and after a market crises, the average portfolio fraction will converge to different stationary equilibria. A mean difference equation of the average portfolio fraction is also given to describe the dynamics of the model.

Common Trends and Common Cycles in Per Capita GDP: The Case of the G7 Countries, 1870–2001

In this paper we analyze per capita incomes of the G7 countries using the common cycles test developed by Vahid and Engle (Journal of Applied Econometrics, 8:341–360, 1993) and extended by Hecq et al. (Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 62:511–532, 2000; Econometric Reviews, 21:273–307, 2002) and the common trend test developed by Johansen (Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12:231–254, 1988). Our main contribution is that we impose the common cycle and common trend restrictions in decomposing the innovations into permanent and transitory components. Our main finding is permanent shocks explain the bulk of the variations in incomes for the G7 countries over short time horizons, and is in sharp contrast to the bulk of the recent literature. We attribute this to the greater forecasting accuracy achieved, which we later confirm through performing a post sample forecasting exercise, from the variance decomposition analysis.

On Optimal Instrumental Variables Generators, with an Application to Hedge Fund Returns

In this paper, we propose a new benchmarking procedure lying on cumulants for computing the factor loadings in financial models of returns. We apply this technique to the well-known augmented Fama and French (J Fin Econ 43(2):153–193, 1997) model and compare it with another technique of ours based on higher moments. Our new procedure confirms the fact that the alpha is supposed to decrease when we disaggregate HFR indices to the level of individual funds while correcting for specification errors. Our new technique is therefore useful for hedge funds selection or ranking based on the alpha of Jensen corrected for specification errors. This technique will also be useful for calibrating other financial models of returns like the simple market model or the conditional alpha and beta models.