供应链金融存货质押融资银行贷款风险控制

为降低商业银行在提供供应链存货质押融资服务时面临的贷款风险,分析不同采购量和质押率下贷款风险价值,确定风险临界采购量和质押率以及最小贷款风险采购量。研究表明,商业银行可以在提供存货质押融资服务时根据零售商提供的差异质押存货数量设定贷款限额以降低银行贷款和核心企业的担保风险。     

控股股东股权质押、内部控制与审计费用

文章选取2010—2018年沪深A股上市公司为研究样本,运用固定效应模型,实证检验了控股股东股权质押与审计费用的关系。研究发现,存在控股股东质押行为的企业审计费用更高,并且控股股东股权质押率与审计费用呈正相关;内部控制作为调节变量,能够缓解股权质押引起的审计费用的增加。进一步研究发现,民营企业更容易发生股权质押行为,审计费用更高。     

高科技中小企业专利技术质押融资业务的信贷合约设计

高科技中小企业信用体系缺失,没有不动产提供给银行进行抵押贷款,专利技术质押融资成为解决高科技中小企业融资难的有效途径之一。分析了专利技术质押融资过程中的风险点——专利技术价值评估、专利技术交易市场的流动性以及交易成本,并对专利技术质押融资的质押率以及银行承担的风险敞口等参数设定给出了数学模型,为银行开展专利技术质押融资提供了参考。     

商业银行知识产权类无形资产质押贷款风险及评估方法探讨

中国的无形资产质押贷款融资,目前仍处在探索阶段。而对无形资产评估值和质押率的认定是商业银行发放贷款前降低风险的最后一道屏障。商业银行作为评估报告的使用者和审核人,除对借款人的资信状况进行调查外,还要对质押物权和质押物的价值进行认定。通过回归分析、模糊矩阵、一致性检验和期权定价模型等评估方法获得的评估结果,再结合商业银行实践中的质押率水平,商业银行就可最终确定其为无形资产提供的最终贷款额度。     

紧缩性货币政策下控股股东股权质押及其经济后果

本文基于质押比例、私利侵占与违规行为视角,考察紧缩性货币政策导致流动性压力增大时企业控股股东股权质押受到的影响及其经济后果。研究发现,紧缩性货币政策条件下,股权质押企业会削减质押比例,使得控股股东私利侵占行为有所减少,同时对违规行为起到显著抑制作用。进一步研究表明,二级市场股票流动性对货币政策的治理效应产生影响:在股票流动性低的组别,其对质押企业私利侵占的治理效应更强;在股票流动性高的组别,紧缩货币政策对质押率的负向影响更大,对质押企业违规行为的正向治理效应更强。本文还证实了在紧缩货币政策背景下,货币政策的正向治理效应最终能够显著提升质押企业业绩。     

港口主导下煤炭供应链上游供应商的融资决策

针对煤炭供应链上游供应商因资金不足而需借贷时采用的两种融资模式——基于供应链金融的存货质押和民间借贷,以上游供应商的收益为目标函数,以贷款方的审核时间、存货质押率和贷款利率等为决策变量,建立了两种融资模式下上游供应商的融资决策模型,计算了相应的最优融资额和最优煤炭订货量。     

数字经济与我国金融周期波动

数字经济通过赋能传统金融使我国金融周期波动呈现新特征.本文通过构建嵌入知识信息和抵质押融资约束的多部门DSGE模型,考察知识信息冲击、资产偏好冲击以及抵质押率冲击对我国金融周期核心解释变量信贷和资产价格的动态影响。研究发现:抵质押机制放大了我国金融周期的波动;数字经济这一新型经济形态的发展能够缓解抵质押机制的放大效应,进而达到熨平我国金融周期的效果;数字经济对于资产价格膨胀的熨平作用较信贷扩张显著。因此,我国金融体系应实行差异化的信贷政策,加强资本充足率监管,持续提升数字化水平,同时平衡好数字化水平提升与风险防控之间的关系。     

试论我国商业银行动产质押担保的风险

近几年,由于受宏观经济发展态势的影响,钢材价格在较长时期内存在较为明显的波动,导致我国商业银行以钢材等原材料为主的动产质押业务风险呈上升趋势,一些在商业银行办理了动产质押业务的企业发生作为质押物的大量钢材被企业私自挪用变卖事件,有的企业停止经营,法人代表外逃,金融案件时有发生,银行信用风险不容乐观。本文重点剖析我国商业银行动产质押担保业务的风险问题,并提出相应的监管建议和对策。一、动产质押担保的一般含义所谓动产质押担保,是指借款人或出质人将自有的动产交与商业银行用作质押担保,由银行向借款人发放贷款的一种银…     

南京市科技型小微企业知识产权质押融资主体职能演化分析

利用Bicomb软件提取政策文本中与南京市知识产权质押融资相关的高频关键词,并运用社会网络分析方法绘制出南京市知识产权质押融资网络图,在此基础上对政府、银行以及其它主体的子网络演化特征进行剖析。结果发现,南京市相关政策已经呈现出由补贴融资成本型转向创造融资环境型的演化趋势;银行的专业性逐步提升,但是风险容忍度并没有显著改善;投资机构与金融机构的合作进一步深化,投贷联动将成为南京市知识产权质押融资的新方向。     

中国企业质押专利特征分析

以中国知识产权局公布的2008-2012年度专利权质押登记数据为依据,基于区域视角,分析了企业专利权质押中专利数量、类型、技术领域、年龄、发明人数等信息。结果显示：①各地质押专利数量逐年增加,其中东部地区发展最为迅速;②质押专利中发明专利和实用新型专利数量多于外观设计专利;③东部地区质押专利中发明和实用新型专利主要分布在作业运输、物理和电学等技术领域,中部地区化学冶金类质押专利数量较多,西部地区生活必需品类质押专利占居榜首,各区域质押专利中外观设计专利大多为日常生活用品;④各区域质押专利平均年龄从小到大依次为东部、中部、西部;⑤各区域大多数质押专利发明人数为1人,合作发明完成的质押专利占比较少。     

Assessing the macroeconomic impact of alternative macroprudential policies

This article assesses effects on the wider economy and overall costs and benefits of two alternative macroprudential policies - loan-to-value ratios on mortgage lending and variable bank capital adequacy targets. It also traces the potential effects of such policies if introduced prior to the subprime crisis. The work is performed within the National Institute Global Econometric Model, with a focus on Germany, Italy and the UK. Detailed banking sectors and addition of a macroprudential block to our model enable effects of policies to be captured. A systemic risk index tracks the likelihood of the occurrence of a banking crisis and establishes thresholds at which macroprudential policies should be activated by the authorities. Capital adequacy impacts the economy by acting on the spread between borrowing and lending of corporates and households, while loan-to-value transmits through its impact on the housing market. We find generally loan-to-value policy has a lesser effect than capital adequacy on crisis probabilities and net benefits, but there is considerable cross country variation. We show that the introduction of macroprudential policy prior to the crisis would have led to improvement in a number of key macroeconomic measures and might thus have reduced the incidence of the crisis.     

Household debt,macroprudential rules,and monetary policy

Today's Canadian economy features a historic high of household debt and persistently low growth rate. The average debt-to-GDP ratio has reached the level experienced in the U.S. just prior to the recent financial crisis. In this paper, we ask whether monetary policy should lean against the household indebtedness or macroprudential policies are better suited for the task. To provide a quantitative answer, we develop a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring a micro-founded banking sector. We estimate the model using Canadian data and conduct policy experiments. Our findings favor macroprudential approach to reining in indebtedness: using monetary policy that reacts to household debt increases inflation volatility and lowers borrowers' welfare, while using macroprudential policies such as lowering the loan-to-value ratio limit increases borrowers' welfare.     

Assessing the efficacy of borrower-based macroprudential policy using an integrated micro-macro model for European households

We develop an integrated micro-macro model framework that is based on household survey data for a subset of the EU countries that the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) contains. We use the model for the purpose of assessing the efficacy of borrower-based macroprudential instruments, namely loan-to-value (LTV) ratio and debt service to income (DSTI) ratio caps, and illustrate its outcome for four European countries. The simulation results from the model can be attached to bank balance sheets and their risk parameters to derive the impact of the policy measures on their capital position. The model framework also allows quantifying the macroeconomic feedback effects that would result from the policy-induced reduction of demand for mortgage loans. An assessment as to the comparative efficacy of LTV- versus DSTI-based policy suggests that DSTI caps may be more effective in containing household risk.     

Housing price declines and household balance sheets

Data from a new national household survey quantify recent changes in household balance sheets and estimate the likely losses on home mortgages through June 2009. We find a fairly small fraction of high loan-to-value mortgages are at risk of default.     

住房价格、消费与中国货币政策最优选择:基于异质性房价预期的视角

在异质性房价预期和流动性约束条件下,本文构建了包括家庭消费决策、企业生产决策以及中央银行货币政策决策的理论模型。在此基础上,本文采用混合的RBC-VAR方法和1998年1季度至2010年3季度的数据模拟分析了住房价格、消费和货币政策选择之间的关系。结果表明:预期房价上涨的家庭越多,住房价格波动对消费波动的影响越大;贷款价值比越高,住房价格波动对消费波动的放大效应越强,但经验证据并没有支持这种放大效应;盯住住房价格的货币政策获益很少,其在减少产出波动的同时增加了通货膨胀波动。因此,中国人民银行应遏制房价偏离均衡的上涨,尤其是房价上涨预期,但货币政策不宜盯住住房价格。     

The impact of macroprudential policies on the transmission of shocks across financially integrated countries

We study the implications of macroprudential policies across countries on the transmission of shocks when international investment activities are allowed. In a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in which international investors are borrowing constrained and pledge international assets, we introduce a time-varying loan-to-value (LTV) ratio that adjusts to the variation of three different financial vulnerability indicators. We examine the effect of these policies on negative productivity and borrowing capacity shocks. Although time-varying LTV ratios reduce the international propagation of the productivity shock, their response to the shock depends on the financial vulnerability indicator with which the LTV ratio changes. With a productivity shock, the adjustment of the LTV ratio to the deviation of credit or asset price helps to reverse the negative impact of the shock. With a financial shock, LTV ratios varying with a deviation of credit-to-GDP ratio or aggregate credit can mitigate the impact of a negative financial shock. Adjustment of the LTV ratios reduces the fluctuation of international investors' balance sheets, investment, and productivity. We find that countries improve their welfare when time-varying LTV ratios are in place. The magnitude of the welfare gain differs with both the financial vulnerability indicator and the shock.     

Household savings constraints,uncertainty and macroprudential policy

We investigate the impact of macroprudential policy on Irish households' perception of savings adequacy, with a particular focus on households intending to purchase a home. These measures tighten loan-to-value ratios and raise the entry cost for home purchase. We find that the measures have had a significant impact on savings constraints. Indeed, constrained potential buyers, who are planning to purchase, but not presently saving to buy a home, are the group most affected as the macroprudential rules increase the downpayment size required. Heterogeneous effects across households indicate younger, private renting households, and those with relatively uncertain cash flows.     

Time to default in the UK mortgage market

This paper employs duration analysis to investigate the timing of default in the UK mortgage market. Our analysis is performed on an ex ante basis, in that our explanatory variables are available to mortgage lenders when the loan is first made. We estimate both standard Weibull distributions and generalizations of the Weibull that permit non-monotonic hazard functions. The models fit the data well, suggesting that we have captured the major sources of variation in duration. We find that ‘cash flow’ variables, such as salary and interest rate paid, play the largest role. Surprisingly, loan-to-value ratios are either insignificant or influence default times in a counter-intuitive direction.     

After the great recession : financial sophistication and housing leverage

US households face various choices in saving for retirement, with one of the most common decisions related to maintaining or paying off a mortgage. Using the 2010 and 2013 Survey of Consumer Finances, this study investigates the relationship between financial sophistication and mortgage decisions among middle-age households. A Heckman two-stage selection model is employed to investigate two separate decisions: mortgage holding and loan-to-value (LTV) ratios among mortgage holders. Results indicate that financial sophistication is positively associated with carrying a mortgage and higher LTV ratios. These results imply that financially sophisticated households may be using leverage to increase asset returns.     

The macroeconomic effects of the LTV and LTI ratios in Ireland

We use the Central Bank of Ireland’s Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model to investigate the introduction of regulatory loan-to-value and loan-to-income ratios in 2015, which form part of the Central Bank’s macroprudential measures. The main finding is that while the measures dampen economic activity in the short run, they bring benefits in the medium and long run. Household leverage declines, which lowers the default rate on bank loans. Households deleverage and foreign debt decreases significantly.