希腊公投结果如何影响中国?

<正>7月6日,希腊公投结果出炉。据希腊内政部统计:所有投票均已开票61.3%投"反对"38.7%投"赞成"。这意味着希腊将不会接受欧盟委员会、欧洲央行和国际货币基金组织2015年6月25日在欧元区峰会上提出、由两部分文件共同组成的谈判协议条款。这也意味着"希腊退欧"在某种程度上将进入备考程序。     

希腊救援计划变数不少

2010年4月6日,市场新闻国际公司援引未具名希腊政府消息来源的话称：希腊政府希望对新近形成的援助机制进行修改。消息一出,欧元兑世界主要货币进一步贬值,希腊同债收益率大幅度提高。尽管希腊官员坚决否认了传言,但投资人仍对最近刚刚达成的希腊救援计划是否能够让这个欧洲国家渡过危机缺乏信心。     

欧洲债务危机有望缓解

一、欧洲主权债务危机的由来欧洲债务危机起始于希腊的主权债务危机。2009年10月20日,希腊政府宣布当年财政赤字占国内生产总值的比例将超过12%,市场开始担心希腊的主权债务将面临违约困境。12月美国三大评级公司相继下调希腊主权信用评级,希腊主权债务危机成为事实。2010年4月,希腊政府向欧盟和国际货币基金组织申请金融援助。同年5月2日,欧元区成员国财政部长召开特别会议,决定和国际货币基金组织共同在未来3年内为希腊提供总额1100亿欧元的贷款。同日,希腊宣布了大规模财政紧缩计划。5月10日欧盟27国财长决定与国际货币基金组织共同设立一项总额高达7500亿欧元的"欧洲稳定机制",帮助可能陷入债务危机的欧元区成员国,阻止希腊债务危机蔓延,至此希腊主权债务危机演变为欧元区的保卫战。6月7日受希腊主权债务危机拖累,欧元对美元汇率一度跌破1比1.19,创下自2006年3月以来的最低水平。     

警惕英国的主权债务风险

希腊危机对欧洲的冲击并不足虑,真正值得担心的是英国潜在的主权债务风险3月25日的欧盟春季峰会上,欧元区16国首脑通过了希腊救助方案。根据该方案,在希腊不能以可接受的利率在国际金融市场上举债的情况下,欧元区国家和IMF将联合向希腊提供贷款,并以欧元区国家为主。4月11日,欧元     

媒体头条

巴西等国警告IMF纾困希腊有风险 主要新兴市场国家驻国际货币基金组织（IMF）代表向该组织管理层发出警告,称不应在前景不明时为新一轮希腊纾困方案提供大笔资金。在欧元区当局商定新一轮希腊纾困方案几天之后,上述官员表示,该方案的细节还不够清晰,方案拟定的私营部门所持希腊债务的减记幅度似乎还不够。     

希腊债务危机:一个政府长期经济决策失误的标本

<正>7月5日,希腊就是否接受国际债权人的金融救助方案举行全民公投,61.31%的民众反对接受欧元区救助方案。希腊政府希望这一结果有助于要挟国际债权人继续减免债务,但在7月8日的欧盟临时峰会上,欧元区国家首脑集团表态不接受希腊的要求,并表示"已经为‘希腊退欧’做好了准备"。7月30日的债务到期日逐渐逼近,7月13日,希腊政府终于与债券人达成了和解协议:国际债权人不会给希腊减免债务,希腊获得500亿欧元借款缓解当前危机。     

报摘

希腊债务问题使得投资者对主权债退避三舍。欧洲内部银行同业市场因无法确切弄清哪些银行遭遇主权债违约影响而变得失灵。随着危机压力的加大,当希腊无法偿还债务成为事实,市场出现放弃它的呼声,将会导致希腊、欧洲银行和其他欧洲国家出现混乱,其效果堪比雷曼兄弟公司垮台。因此,当务之急是提升与在希腊和其他疲弱经济体之间构建防火墙有关的金融制约力量。欧洲政策制订者应抢在危机前做好预案。     

2010年国际金融十件大事

欧洲主权债务危机愈演愈烈2009年12月全球三大评级公司下调希腊主权评级,希腊陷入财政危机。2010年2月23日,希腊债务危机扩散到银行系统,希腊四大银行评级遭到下调。随后,欧洲其他国家也开始陷入危机,比利时及欧元区内经济实力较强的西班牙、葡萄牙,都     

2011年国际金融十件大事

1.欧洲主权债务危机持续发酵2011年3月份,希腊、西班牙、葡萄牙、爱尔兰等国的主权评级连遭降级,导致融资形势再度紧张,葡萄牙成为继希腊、爱尔兰之后第三个向欧盟申请救助的欧元区国家。之后,欧元区主权债务     

欧债危机的救助与前景

欧债危机本质是财政危机,救援只能解决短期流动性问题,而并非治本之策近期欧债危机处理取得了阶段性成果2009年11月,希腊财政部宣布其2009年财政赤字对GDP的比例将达到13.7%,导致市场出现恐慌,成为欧洲主权债务危机发端。2010年5月,希腊主权债务危机全面爆发。由于希腊债务危机的传染效应,西班牙、爱尔兰、葡萄牙和意大利等     

Freeing Greece from capital controls: Were the restrictions enforced in time?

Recent developments in Greece have caused for the implementation of banking capital controls on the outflow of funds, a policy decision not uncommon, especially in emerging markets. However, the issues of the Greek economy, which seem to stem from the public sector but have been passed on to the banking sector, pose a unique challenge to researchers. In this paper, we employ VBanking, an object-oriented model for banking simulations to examine whether capital controls in Greece were enforced at the appropriate time. Additionally, we propose that the banking sector will not purge this regulation soon. Finally, we demonstrate the destructive effects of capital controls both on the financial system and on the real economy. We present the empirical results of our work, which suggest that the Greek authorities’ response to the deterioration of the banking sector was lagged.     

PPP,interest rate parities,and the modified Fisher effect in the presence of tax agreements: A comment

If no taxes exist, perfect mobility and substitutability (international Fisher parity — IF) and purchasing power parity (PPP) result in real interest rate equality. The existence of taxes, however, prevents all three parity relationships from holding simultaneously. Costless financial arbitrage plus costless goods arbitrage are the assumptions of IF and PPP, respectively. If residency arbitrage is expensive, IF and PPP will result in unequal real rates that give no incentive for capital or goods flows. Differences in real rates may come either from differences in income tax rates or from differential inflation.     

European monetary integration and persistance of real exchange rates

The aim of this paper is to analyze whether the persistence properties of the European real exchange rates changed when their currencies joined the euro or during the monetary integration process. More specifically, we investigate whether, as a result of the single currency or the previous macroeconomic stability, nominal price rigidities have decreased and the persistence of real exchange has fallen. We test for stationarity against a change in the integration order on different competitiveness measures during the period that runs from the middle of the seventies to nowadays. The results show that the real exchange rates of the European periphery (Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece and Finland) underwent a change in their order of integration from I(1) to I(0) at some time around the middle of the 1990s. On the other hand, the real exchange rates of the Central European countries, with a greater stability in the 1980s and 1990s, changed their integration order earlier, if at all, mostly during the 1980s. So, the euro seems to have had, on the whole, little influence on the persistence of real exchange rates. Only for a few countries do our findings detect a significant decrease in persistence related with the nominal convergence process.     

Real Options Premia Implied from Recent Transactions in the Greek Real Estate Market

This research is the first to examine the empirical predictions of a real option-pricing model on market values from the realty market of a Euro area country, namely Greece. Using a manually collected sample of land and property transaction prices, we demonstrate that, a model which incorporates the option to wait to develop land has explanatory power on observed prices over and above the intrinsic value from a simple discounted cash flow (DCF) approach. Recent land transactions in our sample seem to reflect a premium for the option to wait (‘real option premium’) that can be as high as 26.66%–52.38%, especially in the west and north suburbs of Athens. Estimates of annual volatility for specific properties, as implied by transaction prices, are found to range from 15% to 21%.     

The investigation of the dynamic linkages between real estate market and stock market in Greece

ABSTRACT

We use quarterly data from Greece over the period 1997:1–2015:2 and investigate the dynamic linkages between the price of the real estate market and the price of the stock market focusing on two transmission mechanisms, namely the wealth and credit-price effects. The empirical analysis employs advanced methodological techniques and presents evidence supporting the existence of both the wealth effect and the credit effect in the long-run while in the short-run there is a one-way causal effect running from stock market towards house market. Results reveal asymmetric adjustment to equilibrium process and considerably stronger for positive deviations from the equilibrium.     

基于LPPL模型的股市泡沫研究——兼论主权债务危机时国际援助计划效果

运用 LPPL模型对主权债务危机时期希腊股市泡沫状态进行判断,考量各轮援助计划的实施效果.结果表明:在第一轮援助期内,股市处于负泡沫状态;而在第二轮援助期与第三轮援助期内,股市局部处于反转负泡沫状态,但整体依旧处于负泡沫状态.国际援助计划虽然有所助益,但没有从根本上有效改善其市场低迷状态.为避免发生此类危机,应促进实体经济健康发展,密切关注政府债务问题,注重货币政策与财政政策相协调.     

英国经济的现实困境与复苏前景

文章综合GDP增长、主权债务占比、银行业风险及房地产市场调整等多方面的情况,分析了当前英国经济面临的现实困境,指出英国经济的复苏,需要扭转过度依赖金融业发展的局面,需要政府部门在谨慎把握货币宽松与通货膨胀、财政紧缩与经济增长之间平衡的条件下积极推进经济结构调整。尽管复苏前景不甚明朗,但是由于英镑与欧元截然不同的货币体制以及英、美微妙的同盟关系,英国料将不会成为下一个希腊。     

Contagion during the Greek sovereign debt crisis

We examine the impact of news about Greece and news about a Greek bailout on bank stock prices in 2010 using data for 48 European banks. We identify the twenty days with extreme returns on Greek sovereign bonds and categorise the news events during those days into news about Greece and news about the prospects of a Greek bailout. We find that, except for Greek banks, news about Greece does not lead to abnormal returns while news about a bailout does, even for banks without any exposure to Greece or other highly indebted euro countries. This finding suggests that markets consider news about the bailout to be a signal of European governments' willingness in general to use public funds to combat the financial crisis. Sovereign bond prices of Portugal, Ireland, and Spain respond to both news about Greece and news about a Greek bailout.     

Contribution rates to funded pension systems in the new member countries

The paper examines implications of real convergence for fully funded pension systems in the new member countries of the European Union. The process of convergence implies that contribution rates would have to be up to 70% higher in the new member countries in order to achieve the same replacement ratio as in a steady-state economy. This effect is partially due to higher growth rates during the process of real convergence and partially due to lower rates of return. The rates of return will be lower due to nominal convergence.     

社会保障基金国债投资的规模扩大效应分析

本文通过定性和定量分析方法讨论了社会保障基金投资国债产生的规模扩大效应。模型分析结果表明,该效应与金融市场深度和政府对社保基金国债投资比例的限量监管等因素有关。利用2001至2009年的实证数据分析发现,在当前金融市场发展状况下,如果社保基金大量投资国债,潜在的规模扩大效应将影响养老金系统性改革发挥改善未来年轻一代社会福利的作用。鉴于此,未来应当通过深化金融改革和放松限量监管来避免该问题。