房地产市场供求博弈分析

近年来房地产市场掀起了轩然大波,价格矛盾,供求矛盾凸现。政府针对这些状况,出台了一系列政策措施,对房地产市场进行宏观调控。一线城市的房价已经明显抵制了上涨,销售量也有所下降。本文用博弈的方法对房地产市场的供求双方进行探讨,在政府已经出台政策后,房地产商与消费者和投资者的博弈情况有所变化。此外,本文考虑了产品的差异性,在此基础上再研究消费者对于产品的需求。     

是他们狡辩还是我们误解?

伴随着房价的疯狂上涨，房地产商也因此成为了众矢之的。在博弈中。处于明显弱势的“房奴”将无权利下的不满和愤恨统统迁怒于与其直接交易的房地产商，他们大概认为之所以成为“房奴”，完全是因为房地产商的盘剥，甚至认为应该取缔开发商。     

浅谈房地产开发商与消费者之间博弈

随着社会的转型和体制的转轨,利益博弈问题在我国社会中不断突出和显性化,在这其中,房地产市场中的博弈更是受到社会各界的广泛关注。在这场博弈中,无论消费者采取何种策略,房地产商的选择都是唯一的,那就是维持价格。同样,不论房地产上选择何种策略,消费者的选择都是购买。因此,理智的开发商和购房者之间的博弈的结果应该是维持价格和购买。本文通过房地产商同购房者的博弈问题进行简单的梳理和总结,以期对这一问题有一清晰明确的把握。     

取消房屋预售吓着了谁？

在地产界经过了两年调控之后,地产商们能够经受的冲击已经很有限了8月15日,央行发布《2004年中国房地产金融报告》,一条“考虑取消现行的预售制度”的建议,大大震动房地产商脆弱的神经。“七部委文件”(新八条)在5月11号出台后,房地产商放弃了与政府的博弈,对于政策、房价保持了和政府的惊人一致,“做政府和政策的好孩子”(某房地产商语)。但是,这次房地产商按捺不住了。     

罗永浩自食其果

企业家失言,并非十恶不赦,但无论如何,老罗过早透支了信誉. 商品经济的原则，是交易自由，双方遵守契约精神。 楼市大好房价上涨，在此之前就买了房消费者不会把增值的资产部分析算成现金还给房地产商，同理，房地产商为了促销而将楼盘打折出售，原价购房的消费耆啮羞成怒的去把售楼处给砸了，也是毫无道理且违法的行为。     

伤城鄂尔多斯

在鄂尔多斯,几乎每一个能源企业均有房地产开发业务。而且还有房地产商,包括外地房地产商在不断进入鄂尔多斯。滞销之中,房价纷纷下跌,而降价成为许多房地产商的选择     

房产商如何“抢滩”三线城市

对三线城市的选择,开发企业要慎重在国家大力打压房地产房价的今天,一、二线城市被当作试点城市来进行调控,致使很多三线城市走进房地产商的视线。对当下许多房地产商来说,三线城市确实是一个很     

百家争鸣论加息

房价上升论国务院发展研究中心金融研究所副所长巴曙松 加息到底能给房地产商带来多少压力还需要评估,目前来看房价仍有走高的趋势。华远集团董事长任志强     

平民经济运动的法理依据

房价是中国人心中不变的伤痛。人们对高房价的谴责声也从来就没停止过。但是以牟取利润为唯一目的的商人与机构,并不会因为谴责而有所收敛或偃旗息鼓。于是人们把希望寄托在政府身上,可是收效依然甚微。“国六条”及九部委新政出台后,坊间对其治理效果的预期并不太乐观,普通消费者持观望姿态者甚众(据6月2日《华西都市报》),但半数以上的人们仍觉得房价肯定还要继续涨。相反,中国的二级城市房价出现了明显上涨的势头(据5月25日中国人民银行网站)。这并不是说政府的调控失灵了,或许再次说明,善于趋利避害、谙习投机规则的房地产商们,在与政策…     

商品房买卖中消费者权益的保护对策

商品房消费是消费者最基本也是最重要的消费,但是在商品房买卖活动中,商品房消费者的权益比其他商品消费者的权益更容易受到侵害。论述了商品房消费者权益保护的必要性、商品房买卖中消费者权益类型、商品房买卖中消费者权益的保护对策。     

Do real estate investors trade on momentum?

Real estate markets are known to be less-than-efficient for many reasons, but what roles short-term trading plays are unclear. Do short-term investors bring additional risk to the market and cause prices to deviate from fundamental values? Based on an extensive dataset of property transactions and a policy shock that substantially raised the cost of short-term trading in Hong Kong, we estimate ‘real estate risk’ with and without short-term trading based on return predictability, return volatility, and price dispersion. Our results show that as short-term investors exit the market, market returns are less predictable and less volatile, while prices are less dispersed cross-sectionally. Consistent with herding models in behavioral finance, the findings suggest that short-term investors are momentum traders who do not enhance price efficiency.     

Autocorrelation of the trade process: Evidence from the Helsinki Stock Exchange

This study investigates how duration-based trading intensity modifies the first-order autocorrelation and the transitory variance of the trade process. Because prices are conditional expected values, a structural model in which the trade duration represents the rate at which prices incorporate new information is developed. This refined model is an extension of the one developed by Madhavan, Richardson, and Roomans (1997) and allows parameters characterizing the arrival rate of new information to be derived. Testing this model with data from the Helsinki Stock Exchange, I was able to determine that a model ignoring trading intensity effects on price changes would underestimate the transitory effects of the trade process. This finding suggests that trade duration captures neglected elements of implicit trading costs that increase with market microstructure effects.     

强势投资者的博弈与信息流转

股票价格的运行是全体投资者相互博弈的结果,而投资者的策略选择是其所拥有信息的函数。本文主要讨论在多个强势投资者共存时,投资者的信息修正和策略选择。研究使强势投资者的信息修正和个股市场价格运行满足马尔可夫性质,并快速达到均衡状态的信息结构。研究显示,多强势投资者的共存是平抑个股价格波动、提高市场效率的关键,强势投资者数目越多,信息流转速度越快。     

房价变动规律性及调控对策研究

房价的变动既是经济问题,更是政治和社会问题的体现.我国房地产业已经成为拉动国民经济发展的重要支柱产业.金融危机爆发后,房价的大幅波动引起了世界各主要国家的高度关注.本丈结合我国房地产业发展的实际,对房价的变动情况、变动规律性及调控对策问题进行了初步探讨.本文提出影响房价变动的十大要素,对各要素与房价这一变量变动的相关性进行了分析研究,以实现前瞻性的指导房地产业健康发展的目的.     

Bankruptcy and optimality in a closed trading mass economy modelled as a non-cooperative game

In this paper we establish the existence of (a) an optimal bankruptcy rule which enables us to describe the Walrasian trading economy as a game with trade in fiat money; and (b) non- cooperative equilibrium points of this game which (in terms of prices and the final allocation yielded) include the competitive equilibrium points, and the accompanying money rate of interest (induced by borrowing at a central bank), when the bankruptcy rule is different from optimal.     

Day trading and stock price volatility

When an investor buys and sells the same stock on the same day, he is said to have made a day trade. Using the trading records of Finnish traders, this paper examines whether day trading is related to volatility of stock prices. I find a strong positive time-series relation between the number of day trades by individual investors and intraday volatility among heavily day traded stocks. This effect is robust after controlling for a previously documented volume–volatility relation. The result suggests that the joint hypothesis of price pressure and volatility induced day trading dominates the liquidity effects of day trading.     

Retail investors’ trading and stock market liquidity

The paper investigates the relation between retail investors’ participation in trading and aggregate stock market liquidity. The findings show a positive and significant relation between retail investors’ trading and stock market liquidity. Examination of the determinants of retail investors’ trading reveals that, on average, retail investors with more diversified trading activity tend to trade when liquidity is higher, the frequency of their arrival to the market is not affected by the level of liquidity, and retail investors are willing to trade at a lower liquidity level as sellers than as buyers. Moreover, retail investors’ trading does not create price noise at the aggregate market level. Overall, the evidence suggests that retail investors contribute to market quality.     

房地产市场限购政策效果的经济分析

房地产是社会经济发展的重要产业,伴随着房地产业的快速发展,它也带来了诸多问题。针对目前房地产市场量价齐升的现实,国家陆续出台了一系列宏观政策遏制房价的非理性发展。下文将基于住宅"四象限"模型分析限购如何影响我国的房价,并利用博弈论的方法对中央、地方政府及开发商之间利益关系进行分析,得出限购对我国的房价调控作用有限的结论。最后根据所得结论提出理论上可行的解决途径。     

Random encounters and information diffusion about product quality

This paper explores how social interactions among consumers shape markets. In a two-country model, consumers meet and exchange information about the quality of the goods. As information spreads, demand evolves, affecting the prices and quantities manufactured by profit-maximizing firms. We show that market prices with informational frictions reach the duopoly price with full information at the limit. However, this convergence can take different paths depending on the size asymmetry between countries. In particular, when the country producing the low-quality good is relatively large, the single market does not immediately turn into a duopoly and can be temporarily trapped in a situation of price instability where no Nash equilibrium in pure (but only in mixed) strategies exists and prices can fluctuate between their monopoly and duopoly levels. It follows that the classical price-reducing effects of international trade may take longer to appear. In view of an intense globalization process, understanding how social meetings affect market outcomes is critical for understanding the performance of international economic integration.     

The origin of spatial interaction

This paper uses spatial empirical methods to detect and analyze trade patterns in a historical data set on Chinese rice prices. Our results suggest that spatial features were important for the expansion of interregional trade. Geography dictates, first, over what distances trade was possible in different regions, because the costs of ship transport were considerably below those for land transport. Spatial features also influence the direction in which a trading network is expanding. Moreover, our analysis captures the impact of new trade routes both within and outside the trading areas.