Projecting the future size and health status of the U.S. elderly population

"A projection model based on a multivariate continuous state, stochastic process is presented. The model allows multiple time-varying covariates to be used so parameters can be estimated from time series information on health changes and mortality, and their interaction. Health changes are simulated by altering parameters controlling the age trajectory and diffusion of risk factor means, variances, and covariances....By increasing the information used in projections it may be possible to better (a) anticipate the state of health at extreme ages, (b) forecast changes in health at specific ages over time, (c) stimulate the effects of specific interventions, and (d) determine the sensitivity of outcomes to a range of interventions."     

The future's poor: Projecting the population eligible for federal housing assistance

Microanalytic simulation techniques are used to show that, under a reasonable set of assumptions, the real income of elderly households can be projected to grow at a rate higher than that of other population groups over the next several decades. Simulation modeling also shows that current low marriage and fertility rates and high divorce rates, if continued, will lead to a future population that is proportionately more elderly and of smaller average family size. A number of federal, state, and local assistance programs restrict eligibility to low-income households. In an application to the major federal housing assistance program, it is shown that future growth in the number of elderly households may well be offset by their relatively high income growth, leaving the proportion elderly among those eligible for assistance essentially unchanged over the next 40 years. The findings imply that future changes in the demographic composition of the U.S. population may not be reflected in the composition of the low-income population. This possibility should be considered in planning assistance programs targeted on the poor.     

Projecting growth of metropolitan areas

"This paper is about the determinants of growth of [U.S.] metropolitan areas (MSAs)." The authors review and evaluate the relevant literature.     

U.S. interstate labor force migration: An analysis of trends, net exchanges, and migration subsystems

The rich geography and complex temporal trends of U.S. interstate labor force migration are portrayed. The most commonly reported net migration statistics hide multi-faceted patterns of state-to-state exchange. Maps depicting net migration balances show that much population redistribution has been taking place counter to the popularly conceived Frostbelt-to-Sunbelt flow. Significant net migration exchange takes place within each of the major regions of the U.S. as well as between them.

Principal component analyses carried out on gross state-to-state flow tables for 1960–1965, 1965–1970, and 1970–1975 suggest the existence of a set of remarkably stable migration subsystems, despite the heralded net migration turnarounds in nonmetropolitan-to-metropolitan and south-to-north patterns of flow.     

中国经济格局时空演化趋势

国内市场正在重塑我国经济空间格局.本文利用标准差椭圆和标准距离方法,基于全国287个城市(地级及以上)数据确定了我国经济格局时空演化的基本态势:2003 ～2010年,我国经济重心正向内陆方向移动,经济发展呈现出空间收缩密集化态势,且在东—西方向上的增长趋势强于南—北方向,经济发展空间均衡趋势明显,空间差异呈下降趋势.这些趋势表明,我国国内市场引发的聚集经济作用在不断加强.建议以华北平原和长江中下游平原为主构建我国经济发展的核心区,加大对安徽省、河南省和湖北省等靠近全国市场的中部地区的投入力度,大力推动我国经济进入内生增长、沿海—内陆双轮驱动的发展轨道.     

Projecting the number of new AIDS cases in the United States

"This paper reviews the two leading methods used to project the number of AIDS cases: back calculation and extrapolation. These methods are assessed in light of key features of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and of data on the epidemic; they are also assessed in terms of the quality of the projections they yield. Our analysis shows that both methods have tended to overproject, often by sizable amounts, the number of AIDS cases in the United States....A new method for projecting AIDS cases is proposed that exploits knowledge about the process generating AIDS cases and that incorporates readily available information about rates of new HIV infection....Relative to the method of extrapolation, this method projects 22,000 fewer new AIDS cases for 1995 (a 36% difference). This method also projects that intravenous drug users will replace homosexual/bisexual men as the dominant transmission category for AIDS."     

网络拍卖的法律问题探析

网络拍卖，又称网上拍卖，是指利用互联网进行的拍卖活动，在目前电子商务中网络拍卖占有较大的份额。自１９９９年下半年开始，“网络拍卖”形式的交易活动在国内悄然兴起，网易、搜狐等网络纷纷推出“网络拍卖”形式的活动，众多网站的加入和开通以及网民的积极参与使“网络拍卖”在较短的时间内迅速发展起来，有人将它视为电子商务在国内最有可能成功的一种方式。尽管对网络拍卖是否属于拍卖的范畴有不同的见解和认识，如将网络拍卖称为“网上竞价”、“网上竞标”、“网上采购”、“网上议价”等，但从实际情况看，网络拍卖也是以公开竞…     

彩生活:时代的企业

<正>在"互联网+"时代,物业管理向现代服务业转型升级的过程也就是"顺势、借势、趋势、取势"的一个过程,在这一过程中,物业管理不是在做互联网,但却可以借力互联网助力物业管理的产业升级。如果诚如张瑞敏所言,企业是时代的产物,那么,彩生活无疑是最好的注解。十四年前,中国的互联网商机初现端倪,彩生活在深圳这一方改革的热土呱呱坠地。公司成立前夕,唐学斌与潘军约法三章:一是物业服务公司不隶属于房地产公司;二是员工必须持股;三是物业服务公司必须有自己     

企业网络零管理策略的实现

企业网络零管理意味着用户不需要执行管理工作。零管理将使得应用程序的软件安装更加方便,并且能够开发更广泛的应用程序。文章从自动系统升级和应用程序的安装等4个方面探讨windows2000环境下企业网络零管理策略的实现问题。     

Knotting the action net, or organizing between organizations

This paper presents a study of a successful organizing process, namely the knotting together of different types of action by “translating” them into one another. The connections thus established were then stabilized to form a unit that can be designated as an “action net”. This instance of organizing occurred in the course of a project in the Swedish health care sector, with a view to establishing coordination between care units in three separate organizations. Different laws regulated their tasks, their operations were financed by different principals, and the everyday work of their members was undertaken at different point in time and in different places. Despite this, the participants in the studied project were able to establish a lasting net of connections that contributed, in the eyes of the environment, to an instance of “good care”. In this paper we examine in detail the creation of an action net, and offer a tentative theory of organizing in action nets.     

A note on the microeconomics of migration

"The purpose of this note is to demonstrate in a simple model that an individual's migration from a small town to a large city may be rationalized purely by a consumption motive, rather than the motive of obtaining a higher income. More specifically, it is shown that in a large city an individual may derive a higher utility from spending a given amount of income than in a small town." A formal model is first developed that includes the principal forces at work and is then illustrated using a graphic example. The theoretical and empirical issues raised are considered in the concluding section.     

On predictive distributions of public net liabilities

The analysis of the sustainability of public sector finances requires an accounting of all future revenues and all future spending that we would expect, under current tax laws and current entitlements. The classical calculation does not acknowledge the inherent uncertainty of the future economic and demographic developments, so the results can be misleading. Our aim is to produce a more robust summary of the sustainability of the public sector than the one currently available. By taking a forecasting point of view, our formulation takes into account the uncertainty of future productivity, stock and bond markets, and demography. Methodological complications that arise in the stochastic setting are discussed. Estimates of the relative roles of economics and demographics in the uncertainty of public net liabilities are presented.     

浅析网络信息安全技术

文章总结分析了网络信息的几种安全技术,并简要叙述了安全技术的具体应用。     

Estimating the natural rate of unemployment and testing the natural rate hypothesis

How should one measure the natural rate of unemployment? This paper proposes a systems procedure as an alternative to NAIRU. The natural rate is treated as an unobserved state variable in a system that includes measurement equations for the unemployment rate, the rate of wage growth and the rate of inflation. The model is derived from a version of the wage bargaining model of Blanchard and embodies a version of the natural rate hypothesis. The model is estimated by embedding the Kalman filter within the full-information maximum likelihood procedure. For US data, the estimated model implies substantial post-war variation in the natural rate and a negative, but weak, effect of inflation surprises on unemployment. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

网络计划在企业生产管理中的应用

文章指出随着现代企业的发展,传统的流水线生产管理方式已不能适应发展的需要,ERP的出现,使得网络计划在企业生产管理中应运而生,从而给现代企业生产管理带来了高效率,提高了企业间的竞争力。     

The demographics of migration

The author discusses policies of encouraging immigration as a means to counteract demographic aging in developed countries. Consideration is given to policy development and the effects of migration on age distribution.     

我国网络银行发展模式及策略研究

文章对目前我国网络银行发展的现状及面临的有利条件和制约因素进行了分析和探讨,提出了我国网络银行的发展模式和具体策略     

浅议不同项目组织结构在电网设计项目中的应用

随着社会经济的发展,为了适应不断变化的内外部环境,项目管理在各行各业得到了广泛的研究和应用。文章以项目团队的组织结构为研究对象,理论结合实践,对常见的三类项目组织结构类型进行了分析和比较,同时结合当前电网设计项目管理中的问题,提出了如何根据电网项目的实际情况来选择和优化组织结构,为电网设计中如何选择项目团队的组织结构提供了一般性建议。