方案规划:市场经济体系下城市总体规划的有效工具

城市规划方案的核心内容包括对下列问题的回答:哪种土地利用类型,多大土地开发强度,在哪里,什么时候,为什么开发,同时如何通过交通发展将新开发的土地有机地联系起来,如何提供城市基础设施满足新增的城市空间发展.当然,城市规划也要回答如何将城市经济发展与环境保护,社会发展,文化和历史文物保护等连接起来.本文介绍方案规划,内容,要素,及其评价.指出方案规划定量地模拟未来城市发展,客观定量地评价不同的城市规划方案,避免或减少规划方案评价的主观因素,提高决策的科学性.     

Resilient Growth: Fantasy Plans and Unplanned Developments in India's Flood‐Prone Coastal Cities

Academic and policy literatures on urban climate resilience tend to emphasize ‘good planning’ as the primary means for addressing the growing risk of flooding in Asia's coastal megacities. Cities have come to rely on disaster and climate resilience plans to future‐proof their landscapes and protect vulnerable populations. Yet while data is collected, models are built and plans are drafted, environmentally destructive development practices continue unabated and often unchallenged. This article examines and seeks to explain the contradictions between a growing awareness of the risks of climate‐induced flooding in resilience plans and the continuation of development practices widely acknowledged to exacerbate those risks. It analyzes these contradictions in the context of Mumbai and Kolkata, India's largest coastal cities, which are facing the severest threats from climate‐induced flooding. Based on analyses of key resilience planning documents and both planned and unplanned developments in some of Mumbai's and Kolkata's most ecologically sensitive areas, our analysis reveals that resilience planning, promoted by the central government and international consultants, and presented in locally produced ‘fantasy plans’, fails to address the risks of climate‐change‐related flooding owing to tendencies to sidestep questions of politics, power and the distributional conflicts that shape urban development. We conclude that efforts to reduce urban flood risk would benefit from the research, methods and analytic concepts used to critically study cities, but significant gaps remain between these fields.     

Recentralization as an Alternative to Urban Dispersion: Transformative Planning in a Neoliberal Societal Context

Growing dissatisfaction with the prevailing dispersed urban form and its generalized reliance on the automobile has resulted in the formulation of planning models seeking to substitute dispersed development with recentralization. A survey of 301 planning documents with a metropolitan focus, originating from the 58 US and Canadian urban regions with a population exceeding one million, reveals widespread support for urban recentralization. But interviews with 55 planners, involved in the preparation of these plans and/or the implementation of their proposals, highlight actual and foreseen barriers to the implementation of recentralization strategies. The article interprets the popularity of recentralization in planning documents as the outcome of planners' attempts to reconcile their commitment to sustainable development with societal factors affecting planning possibilities. Still, we anticipate serious problems in achieving large‐scale recentralization due to urban development path dependencies emanating from the prevailing urban form and dynamics, institutional structures, and from the limited urban transformative potential afforded by neoliberalism.     

城市总体规划中的三维空间观——浅析城市设计空间理念介入总体规划的动力及方法

有机的三维空间规划是城市规划的重要特色,也是与其他"规划"最大的区别.目前规划设计人员在从事城市总体规划过程中三维空间观缺乏,同时总规过高的法定地位导致的三维空间规划在规划体系中缺少足够的调整空间,这些原因都使得规划在三维空问领域缺乏足够的效用.本文在分析以上问题的基础上提供了一些基本的解决思路,核心就是如何将城市设计的空间理念融入城市总体规划当中.例如:提高规划人员的素质,选择合适的切入点.     

Evaluating Form and Functionality of Pay‐for‐Performance Plans: The Relative Incentive and Sorting Effects of Merit Pay,Bonuses, and Long‐Term Incentives

Using two‐year longitudinal data from a large sample of US employees from a service‐related organization, the present study investigates the relative effects of three forms of pay‐for‐performance (PFP) plans on employees’ job performance (incentive effects) and voluntary turnover (sorting effects). The study differentiates between three forms of pay: merit pay, individual‐based bonuses, and long‐term incentives. By definition, these PFP plans have different structural elements that distinguish them from each other (i.e., pay plan form) and different characteristics (functionality), such as the degree to which pay and performance are linked and the size of the rewards, which can vary both within and across plan types. Our results provide evidence that merit raises have larger incentive and sorting effects than bonuses and long‐term incentives in multi‐PFP plan environments where the three PFP plans are operating simultaneously. Only merit pay has both incentive and sorting effects among the three PFP plans. The implications for the PFP‐related theory, as well as for the design and implementation of PFP plans, are discussed. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

城市风貌规划的理念与方法——兼议台州市路桥区城市风貌规划

认为城市风貌规划具有塑造城市个性、提高管理绩效、改良城市景观等作用.认为国内风貌规划起步较晚,目前存在着规划理念落后、分析方法主观、规划内容面面俱到、规划成果指导性不强等问题,严重影响了规划实施的可操作性.针对上述问题,试从规划理念、规划方法、规划内容、规划成果四个方面就如何提高风貌规划的可操作性加以探讨,并以台州市路桥区的城市风貌规划为例进行了实证分析.     

城市生态规划关键技术与方法体系初探

城市生态问题成为城市发展的重要议题。我国城市规划重点内容仍以城市物质空间与建筑景观的规划为主,方法模式化,具有模糊定性,技术和方法体系不完善,生态理念薄弱,且过度追求经济效益,使经济社会的可持续发展受到了极大制约。基于此,针对城市生态网络理论和城市景观生态模式理论中生态支撑、生态安全、生态健康3个核心内容,分别从区域规划、城市总体规划、城市控制性详细规划、城市修建性详细规划等层面,对城市生态规划规划进行了关键技术与方法集成,以响应时代发展观,完善法定城市规划体系,更好地解决城市问题。     

The generation gap and optimal economic growth

Among the problems confronting those who aspire to the development of a realistic and practicable optimal growth theory is that the human population is not homogeneous with respect to age. Those who are relatively young are apt to prefer a different pattern of capital accumulation from that preferred by those who are relatively old. This paper proposes a tentative solution to this particular problem. Essentially the proposal is that society should remain with what is an optimal private plan of an individual who is at the median age of the population at the beginning of the planning period, for one planning period, after which it revises the plan to switch to the optimal private plan of another individual (one planning period younger than the first) who is at the median age at the commencement of the new planning period. Thus the optimal social plan consists of a succession of one planning period implementations of the first periods of the optimal private plans of individuals who are at the median age at that time period. An example of the application of the method is given. An important sidelight of the paper is a critique of standard constant-rate exponential discounting in social planning of optimal capital accumulation, and the proposal that it be replaced by “mortality discounting.”     

浅谈城镇消防专项规划编制

城镇消防规划是城市规划建设的重要组成部分,是一定时期内城市消防建设发展的目标和计划,是城市消防建设的综合部署和城市消防建设的管理依据。本文试从城镇消防规划的编制依据、方法、内容等几个方面作初步阐述。     

Planning horizons for master production scheduling

Production and operations planning in organizations quite often is a multi-level sequential process, involving aggregate planning, master production scheduling, and detailed operations planning and scheduling. To obtain good planning results, it is desirable to have a proper planning horizon for each level of planning. There have been a considerable number of studies dealing with planning horizons for aggregate planning or production smoothing problems. There are also many planning horizon studies for single-item lot sizing problems. No study has addressed the issues associated with the planning horizons for master production schedules (which is a multi-item lot sizing problem in nature), particularly with respect to the relationship to the aggregate plan.This study addresses the issue of planning horizons for companies employing a make-to-stock competitive strategy facing a seasonal demand for their products. We formulate the aggregate planning problem and the master scheduling problem as two separate mathematical programs to approximate the two-stage process that typically takes place in practice. Rolling planning horizons are used to approximate the periodic updates of the plans commonly done in practice. The models also incorporate resource requirements planning concepts to estimate loads on the critical work centers.The planning process is simulated as a single pass procedure where the results of aggregate planning are passed to the master production scheduling model once per month and the results of the master scheduling model (i.e., the portion of the master schedule actually implemented) are passed back to the aggregate planning model for the next planning session.The experimental results show that when the planner faces extreme cost structures such as high smoothing costs/high setup costs or low smoothing costs/low setup costs, the planning horizon effects are reduced to a minimum. Master schedule planning horizons need not be as long as aggregate planning horizons. Alternatively, non-extreme cost structures such as high smoothing costs/low setup costs and low smoothing costs/high setup costs should be handled with equal planning horizons for both aggregate planning and master scheduling.It is also found that the firm's cost structure has an impact on the appropriate planning horizon for both aggregate planning and master scheduling. Some cost conditions allow for smaller master schedule horizons. The best horizon choice seems to be equal planning horizons for both aggregate planning and master scheduling, even though the cost savings is slight in some cases.Finally, the proper length of the planning horizon for master scheduling is affected by the planning horizon of the aggregate plans.     

关于城市道路规划中存在的问题

随着城市化进程的加快,城市道路规划和建设的问题日益凸显出来了,本文指出了城市道路规划中存在的点滴问题:城市道路规划的随意性;城市道路规划重视道路交通功能、空间功能规划,轻视道路环境功能规划;城市道路规划缺乏严肃性,道路交通拥挤现象层出不穷;城市道路规划中没有体现"以民为本"的原则。这些问题的出现对我们的城市建设和发展产生了一定的影响。     

城市建设与城市管理体制及机制研究

认为城市建设与城市管理的不和谐发展阻碍了城市的快速发展,不健全的规划决策制度、土地调控制度和缺乏活力的城市基础设施运营管理制度是其主要原因;认为从体制和机制上解决这些问题是实现城市建设与城市管理和谐发展的关键.     

Optimal growth models as Economic Planning Tools

Conclusion In the present paper, I have carried out an investigation into the form of models which would be suitable for economy-wide planning. Optimal growth models have usually been constructed in an abstract framework. Therefore, the economies for which optimal growth models would be suitable are not identified. I have shown that, because these models only embody purely physical constraints, they will, in general, only be suitable for totally controlled economies. The conclusion, establishing the general inapplicability of optimal growth models to non-controlled economies, is dependent on the view of economic planning which regards the economic structure, particularly the scope of government policy, as fixed prior to plan construction.The second half of the paper elucidates the nature of the planning process when planners take into account the economic structure of the economy which they are planning. I have deliberately chosen to show the planning process in an abstract context for a simple economy, because the object is not to describe how to plan a particular type of economy, but to describe a methodology of planning. In that methodology, there is a place for optimal growth methods but only after the planners have given utmost consideration to the particular features of the economy they are planning. In using that methodology, one finds that problems must be confronted which are hidden when optimal growth models are formulated in the usual manner. Thus, planning for an infinite horizon may be the planners' preferred method on some basic philosophical grounds but in fact in order to construct an implementable plan they may need to follow the uncontrolled sector and adopt a pragmatic finite horizon approach.This paper is a revised version of a chapter of my Ph.D. thesis at the University of Pennsylvania. I would like to thank my adviser, Don Green, for many helpful comments.     

Simulation modeling and optimization for ambulance allocation considering spatiotemporal stochastic demand

To ensure a timely response to emergencies, governments are obliged to implement effective ambulance allocation plans. In practice, an emergency medical service (EMS) system works in an uncertain environment, with stochastic demand, response-times, and travel-times. This uncertainty significantly affects ambulance allocation planning. However, few studies in this field adequately consider the effect of spatiotemporal uncertainty in demand, because it is difficult to measure it quantitatively. As a result, few analytic models capture the dynamic nature of an EMS system and, thus, the allocation plans they generate are not efficient in practice. Therefore, this study proposes a simulation-based optimization method for ambulance allocation. A simulation model is constructed to mimic the operational processes of an EMS system, and to evaluate the performance of an ambulance allocation plan in an uncertain environment. Gaussian mixture model clustering is used to derive the uncertain spatial demand. Then, the simulation generates emergency demand based on the obtained spatial distribution. A Gaussian-process-based search algorithm is used together with the simulation model to identify optimal solutions. To validate the proposed method, a case study is conducted using data on emergency patients in the Shanghai Songjiang District. Compared with the current plan adopted in Songjiang, the experimental results demonstrate that the delay time and frequency of the EMS system can be reduced significantly by employing the proposed methods. Furthermore, nearly 41% of the allocation cost can be saved.     

The Multiple Effects of Business Planning on New Venture Performance

We investigate the multiple effects of writing a business plan prior to start‐up on new venture performance. We argue that the impact of business plans depends on the purpose for and circumstances in which they are being used. We offer an empirical methodology which can account for these multiple effects while disentangling real impact effects from selection effects. We apply this to English data where we find that business plans promote employment growth. This is found to be due to the impact of the plan and not selection effects.     

评“向权力讲述真理”——兼论中国城市规划行业面临的三个主要问题

"向权力讲述真理"是当前许多规划师以及政府官员时规划师职责的一个定位,但从中国城市规划行业的现状来看,这个定位存在以下三个方面的问题:一是规划师远未掌握相关真理,二是既有的不多的真理也主要集中在技术层面,三是向权力讲述真理在有些时候是无效的.因此,"向权力讲述真理"很难改变中国城市规划行业目前所面临的被动、尴尬的局面.作者认为,中国的城市规划师不仅要积极探索真理,还要从"向权力讲述真理"转向"城市公共政策的重要制定者",切实推进城市规划向重要的公共政策转变.     

Thermal Eco‐cities: Green Building and Urban Thermal Metabolism

Eco‐city projects are becoming increasingly prevalent throughout the globe and are often marketed as ‘new’ urban environments focused on achieving sustainable urban living while promoting environmental–economic transitions towards a low‐carbon technological and industrial base. The article argues for the need to consider the thermal aspects of urban metabolism, while at the same time focusing on the link between individual buildings and eco‐city master plans and wider economic development strategies at a state level. In so doing, the article encourages critical analysis of eco‐city design and planning, while keeping a focus on the role of specific building structures within eco‐cities as examples of the intermeshing of what can be termed a ‘political ecology of scale’ which stretches from specific buildings' climatic characteristics, to the metabolic master plan for eco‐cities, to provincial, regional and state‐level plans for the integration of eco‐cities within wider economic and political development trajectories. The article focuses on Masdar, in Abu Dhabi, an eco‐city under construction at the time of writing.     

采用价值工程方法优选城市交通规划方案

本文介绍了温哥华市的城市交通规划方案的评价决策实例,揭示其中存在的问题,并运用价值工程方法对该市的城市交通规划备选方案进行优劣排序。事实证明,价值工程方法是进行方案选优的简便有效的方法之一。