Determinants of the Physical Demand for Gold: Evidence from Panel Data

Although the role of gold in the world economy has declined since the gold standard was abandoned, it remains important as a central bank reserve, a hedge against risks, a barometer of geopolitical uncertainty, and an input for jewellery. While portfolio demand for gold has been well studied, determinants of physical demand are less understood. Certain emerging‐market countries such as China and India import substantial amounts of gold, with several factors that may contribute: low financial development, need for precautionary savings and/or strong cultural valuation of gold itself. This article uses panel data on gold imports of 21 countries to examine determinants of physical demand. We find that determinants of physical demand differ from those of portfolio demand, and that they differ between the developed and developing worlds.     

Dealer spread and portfolio selection under price risks: evidence from the gold service industry

The bid and ask quotes as well as portfolio selection decisions of gold dealers who face a gold price risk are investigated within a continuous-time framework. The research integrates into a systematic analysis the decision of asset allocation in financial economics as well as the decision of a bid–ask spread in a market microstructure. The holding rate of gold is correlated to the intensity and jump size of the Poisson process, which is a hedging demand for gold assets against the risk of extreme events. According to empirical analysis from the gold service industries, the gold spread return is related to the expected return, volatility and jump risks of gold prices.     

顾客参与、吸收能力与新服务开发成效的关系研究——动态环境的调节作用

顾客参与对企业新服务开发具有显著的正向作用,既会直接影响新服务开发的速度和品质,还会通过吸收能力间接促进新服务开发的成效,但在需求不确定性持续增加和竞争强度日益激烈的动态环境下,顾客参与对新服务开发的影响程度有所不同：市场需求旺盛时,竞争强度会强化顾客参与对新服务开发成效的正向作用,需求不确定性的调节作用不显著;市场需求疲软时,需求不确定性会强化顾客参与对新服务开发成效的正向作用,竞争强度的调节作用不显著。上述研究结论启示企业管理者,积极吸引顾客参与新服务开发,并提升自身吸收能力,发挥吸收能力的中介作用。此外,当市场需求旺盛时,企业应更关注竞争对手,通过差异化竞争;当市场需求疲软时,企业应更专注于顾客需求的变化,从而提升新服务开发的成效。     

Night trading and market quality: Evidence from Chinese and US precious metal futures markets

Given a dominant exchange, how should other exchanges set their trading hours? We examine the introduction of a night session by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, allowing trading concurrently with daytime trading at the Commodity Exchange in the United States. After developing hypotheses, results for gold and silver show: trading activity has increased; liquidity in Shanghai has risen and prices are less volatile at market opening; the price discovery share of Chinese gold futures has fallen but this is not a sign of weakening market quality; and volatility spillovers increase bidirectionally. Longer trading hours have decreased market segmentation and increased information flow.     

稻谷市场供求分析

近年来全球气候变化异常,粮食生产受到自然灾害影响,在一定程度上影响了供求关系,增加了人们对"粮食危机"的预期。作为全球种植生产和消费需求最广泛的粮食作物,稻谷与人们生活最为密切,稻谷的国际及国内市场供求日益受到人们的关注。本文以稻谷市场供求为研究对象,分析稻谷历年生产状况,探讨稻谷的消费情况,对稻谷市场供求形势及趋势进行分析。     

Evidence of arbitrage trading activity: The case of Chinese metal futures contracts

Several unique insights are documented based on a study of selected metal futures contracts traded in the U.S. and China. Based on our unique measures, we present intra market evidence that the U.S. gold and silver futures markets reflect a fully arbitraged market and U.S. copper nearly so. In contrast, the Chinese gold and silver futures markets appear to reflect an un-arbitraged market whereas the Chinese copper market is characterized as somewhat arbitraged. We explore various reasons for this evidence as well as document the differences in gold, silver, and copper futures markets between China and the U.S.     

宏观调控下我国房地产价格上涨机制研究

2004年宏观调控以来,我国政府出台的一系列房地产市场调控政策虽然取得一定的成果,但是房地产价格依然不断上涨。本文依据大量统计资料,从供给与需求两方面分析宏观调控背景下我国房地产市场价格形成机制,揭示出我国房地产价格不断上涨的内在原因在于房地产市场制度的欠缺以及市场供求主体的不成熟。     

A revisit to the hedge and safe haven properties of gold: New evidence from China

We examine the role of gold as a hedge and safe haven from the perspective of Chinese investors. Using the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE)-Gold futures prices and the CSI 300 index from 2008 to 2017, we find that gold is not a hedge against the Chinese stock market on average. However, gold acts as a safe haven when market returns are below their 1%, 5%, and 10% quantiles and during the two crash periods. Our findings apply to most of the industry sectors as well. We also show that the role of gold can change drastically due to some market policy reforms.     

Play Hysteresis in Supply or in Demand as Part of a Market Model

Consequences of economic hysteresis are illustrated based on a standard market model which is extended by hysteresis dynamics. Hysteresis is implemented in a simple linearized way, similar to ‘mechanical play’. As a novelty, both cases, hysteresis in supply and demand, are analysed separately as an explicit part of a supply and demand model. Explicitly modelling supply versus demand side hysteresis has two advantages. (1) Since (hysteretic) supply or demand is only a subsystem of the entire market, persistent endogenous feedback effects on price and quantity are addressed. (2) Differences in the remanent effects of transient shocks between demand and supply hysteresis become obvious.     

体制变迁下的中国企业部门货币需求研究

改革开放以来,中国企业部门货币需求快速增长,已经成为中国货币需求的重要主体。回顾体制变迁中中国企业部门货币需求的变化及特点,构建企业部门货币需求的理论模型,实证分析发现,在中国经济体制不断变化的背景下,中国企业部门的长期货币需求主要取决于企业总产出,但金融市场波动、贷款利率、产业结构都会对企业部门短期货币需求的波动产生显著影响。     

中国外汇储备适度规模与需求结构研究——基于修正的Agarwal模型

本文对Agarwal模型进行修正,并运用修正后的模型对中国1994—2010年的外汇储备适度规模进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,中国外汇储备的实际规模自2004年起超过适度规模;中国外汇储备的需求结构发生了很大变化,其中预防性需求已经占据绝对的主导地位,同时预防性需求中,用于维护外汇市场稳定的干预性储备已经成为其中的主导需求。     

国内市场发展战略的演化逻辑

国内市场是大国经济超大规模性的比较优势。促进形成强大国内市场是新时代中国推进经济高质量发展的战略选择。促进形成强大国内市场的演化逻辑是：经济发展阶段演进促使经济发展模式从投资主导型向消费主导型转变；技术进步推动经济发展战略从出口导向型向内需主导型转变；需求结构演进规律决定政府政策支持国内市场发展；供需结构性错配需要通过供给侧结构性改革提升国内供需质量。经济发展过程中生产与消费的相对地位发生变化。经济发展重心从生产转向消费是上述演化逻辑的基础。促进形成强大国内市场需要“供给—需求—市场”全方位的政策体系支撑。     

中国发展内循环经济与拉动内需的思考

中国巨大的经济体量仅仅依靠外部需求拉动已不太现实,内需市场和内循环经济的重要性由此凸显。2018年中美贸易战爆发以来,外部经济环境变化使得外循环经济的可靠性大打折扣,中国急切需要一个强大稳定的内需市场予以支撑。中国企业自主创新能力和全要素生产率提升能力不足、企业在全球价值链分工中的位次不利于提升制造业部门工资水平、经济金融化和钱生钱逻辑倾向不利于扩大中等收入群体规模等问题,逐渐成为当前中国拉动内需、发展内循环经济的突出体制机制障碍。应采取积级应对当前不利局面、推动经济增长内生动力机制转换,积极应对美国打压、培育内需市场为中国高科技发展提供动力,坚持国内国际双循环发展新格局,加快形成两个市场良性循环机制等措施,推动中国经济持续健康发展。     

天津市珠宝首饰零售业状况及消费市场浅析

天津市珠宝首饰经销企业 ,已达 130余家 ,从所有制结构来看 ,既有国有、合资及独资珠宝金店 ,也有少量个体珠宝店 ,经营规模相差较大。经销足金、铂金、K金、K金镶嵌首饰、铂金镶嵌首饰、玉饰、玉器、珍珠饰品、银饰品及仿真饰品等多品种、多档次首饰。在实地调查与问卷调查的基础上 ,就目前天津市珠宝首饰零售业状况及消费市场作一分析和探讨。     

我国消费需求发展趋势及特点

消费需求是市场经济运行的起点和归宿,是拉动国民经济增长的源泉和动力。改革开放以来,我国逐步实现了计划经济体制向市场经济体制的转轨,消费需求发生了诸多根本性变化。但是消费、投资与净出口三大需求占GDP增量的比重总体上处于失衡状态,消费不足仍是当前经济运行中的主要问题。     

收入效应说与现阶段轿车市场需求的规律性——基于2004-2006年21种典型轿车月度数据的实证分析

在对国内文献进行系统评述的基础上,指出"市场周期说"和"价格决定说"对于解释当前轿车市场的局限性,进而提出了现阶段轿车市场需求规律的"收入效应说"。通过选择2004-2006年度21种典型车型的月度数据,在构建了时间横截面和时间序列都具有可比性的价格指数的基础上,构建了描述市场需求和价格与收入水平之间关系的计量经济模型,利用该模型对各档次车型的市场供求规律进行了深入系统的分析,通过对轿车价格指数和城镇居民平均可支配收入与轿车市场需求量之间关系的检验,初步验证了现阶段轿车市场需求的周期性演化规律和收入效应说,揭示出高档车型目前存在着收入效应带来的需求缺口现象。     

从国际期货定价机制变化看我国期货市场风险管理

在国际金融危机持续的背景下,以石油、黄金为代表的商品价格出现了剧烈震荡,国际期货市场定价机制的变化及期货交易规则的高杠杆效应也使得市场风险被明显放大。面对世界复杂的经济环境及国内通胀压力,如何增强我国期货市场抗风险能力,保护投资者正当利益成为社会各界普遍关心的问题。     

论农村城镇化的需求效应

我国农村市场以其巨大的潜力和对国民经济的拉动作用已成为近年来众多关注的焦点。农村市场需求不旺,消费需求和投资需求拉动乏力,其根本症结在于农村城镇化滞后。农村市场在国内市场结构中举足轻重,通过加快农村城镇化进程,不仅是当前启动我国农村市场需要,而且也是实现我国经济良性发展的关键。     

驱动市场的理论基础及路径构建

在激烈的市场竞争中,要想保持持续的竞争优势,企业不能只是着眼于满足市场需求,还要创造和引导市场需求。市场驱动和驱动市场是决定市场导向的结合体,两者既有区别又相互联系。运用驱动市场理论,寻求市场竞争优势。为此,构建驱动市场路径,使驱动市场活动创造顾客价值,产生预期的组织绩效。     

船板市场走势分析

中厚板交易活跃价格有所反弹 进入二季度以来,国内热轧板卷、冷轧板卷、螺纹钢、线材等钢材价格普遍反弹．交易亦趋于活跃,贸易商心态稳定,从而带动中厚板市场价格回升,特别是普板、低合金板交易相对活跃,部分规格的普板、低合金板比较走俏。据统计,5月份国内主要城市16～20毫米Q235B普中板平均价格较4月份上涨250～300元,吨。本轮价格上涨主要基于市场心态的作用,由于中厚板市场持续疲软、低迷,价格下跌不止,到4月份已经基本到了底部。如普碳板的价格一度跌至3000—3100元／吨,价格甚至比螺纹钢价格还要低．且持续了相当长的时间,贸易商思涨心切。